Fuck, should have sold at 5300

So just after I put my BTC into TUSD it starts to rebound. I wonder how this post will age.

(04-03-2019 04:22 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm thinking also we are going to correct in a matter of days. Not sure where to take profits.. I might sell at 5800. I also think 5300 is not a bad level to sell.

I watched this nearly 50 minute video, and mostly the two presenters are engaged in a kind of bullish prediction of bitcoin, even while anticipating a likely future BTC price correction. They are deservedly giddish, as many folks in the bitcoin, and crypto space, are entitled to be in these times with green candles everywhere.

I found myself in a bit of a disagreement with them when they attempt to suggest that similar kinds of TAs are predictive of various shitcoin price performance, even though they seemed to have acknowledged that the various alt coins that they discussed, ethereum, ripple and litecoin quite more prone to manipulation than bitcoin.

Regarding when and the amount that bitcoin is going to correct, that remains difficult to foretell. Of course, it is going to have a decent correction at some time in the near future, and there is a bit of froth, just in how much the BTC price has gone up in th past few days...

The last couple of days was more or less our $1k-ish pump, so far.. and we do not know whether it is over yet. Does not hurt to take a bit of profits here, and then just attempt to regroup and to continue to prepare for either price direction.

(04-03-2019 04:49 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

(04-03-2019 02:14 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-03-2019 02:01 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  It's weird how it looks like a painful year and half seems to be disappeared if you look at people optimism after a relatively small rise from the bottom.
The herd will be back soon buying back?

Could be a bulltrap here, but I am thinking that momentum could take us to the $6,200 to $6,500 arena before we experience a 30% plus correction... I know that seems a bit optimistic (maybe even too optimistic), because reversals can happen at any time, but I am nonetheless considering a bit of UP momentum has been created here that is a bit easier for everyone to go along with it, rather than to fight it. .. but who knows? We will see. We will see.

Yes, that's possible, but if we have 10%~30%+ correction, I would say that it is a healthy correction. Then we will retest the market around $3500 or so and I am sure it will skyrocket back up to where it was.

This will prove that we have double bottoms and a support level, which is fine with me.

On top of that KNOWING that it will skyrocket back up, I would invest more into bitcoin/crypto (whatever you are into) as soon as it drops double digits. The next day or next week, it will come back up anyways.

Surely, I agree with you that bitcoin fundamentals establish really great ongoing likelihoods of UP, whether a larger level correction (of 30% or more) occurs here or something less substantial (in the 10% to 30% arena like you suggested, bgbusiness.

There is no exact blueprint, but frequently either weak hands are shook or HODLers are goaded into selling when the price pushes back down in the opposite direction for longer and farther than anticipated. Mentally and psychologically, some folks need to be persuaded to sell their coins. Some tricks work, such as manipulation of the price down and simultaneous spreading of FUD, but sometimes those kinds of plans and practices are unable to shake HODLers from their coins.

Some of us kind of "see through" these tactics (perhaps me, you and a few others), but in the whole scheme of things, there is a lot of dumb money that can come into bitcoin too, and dumb money does not necessarily indicate that they are dumb about finances, but they just get played by some of the various diversions with altcoins, and maybe considering that some kind of diversified portfolio is the way to go.. which could cause them to get screwed more than necessary and diverted from bitcoin specifically.

So we will see if any coins or exchanges fail or some other dramatic news causes the pushing of extremes in either direction, and it is quite possible too, that a kind of pump to $10k or greater or some kind of nonsense like that could happen, then then bring back more violent volatility before the froth has been purged from either bitcoin or from the other coins that are also indirectly causing money to flow into bitcoin.

On an ongoing basis we should be attempting to prepare ourselves for either price direction, even while not really knowing with any kind of specificity how the various battles and/or manipulation attempts are going to play out in terms of either time or degree of price movement.

Certainly, I am not going to complain about quasi-violent upwardly BTC price movements... and I am not going to complain if it goes crashing back down, too, even though I would personally prefer up...as is the case with many largely HODLers/accumulators, which you, bgbusiness, seem to be one of the current BTC HODLers/accumulators?

(04-03-2019 05:42 PM)Graft Wrote:  FYI:

Somebody, somewhere is betting big on bitcoin.

The price of bitcoin surged above $5,000 for the first time this year after a mystery buyer placed a huge order — causing a one-day spike not seen since the peak days of the cryptocurrency’s bubble in late 2017.

The trading briefly sent the price of bitcoin to $5,078.52 early Tuesday, the highest price since November. The price settled to around $4,730 by the end of the day.

A single order worth about $100 million had been spread across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges throughout the world at the same time — evidence that the price surge came from a single buyer, Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, CEO of cryptocurrency broker BCB Group, told Reuters.

However, it’s unclear who made the trades — or why.

“[There was a] lack of a clear catalyst or news that drove the move,” Michael Kazley, co-founder of investment firm Crescent Crypto Asset Management, told The Post.

“Feels like a classic short squeeze, where the threat of higher prices drives short sellers to buy back and close their positions,” Kazley added.

The jump comes as bitcoin has lost nearly all of its value amid government crackdowns, allegations of fraud and questions about whether investor optimism was overblown.

Even bitcoin investors Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who claim to have co-created Facebook, acknowledged in a CNN interview last month that investing in the digital currency has been rough.

The 23 percent increase Tuesday was the biggest one-day jump since December 2017, when bitcoin prices had neared $20,000 on some exchanges. The bounce revived the hopes of bitcoin investors after a tough 2018, when the digital currency lost more than 70 percent of its value.

I had seen some variation of that "report" a day or two ago... My how it can be difficult to keep track of time, but I remember criticizing such report for being fairly narrowly focused in its attempt to suggest a small number of players (one whale) manipulating the BTC price, which is just ridiculous if you happen to know much of anything about the BTC market beyond having superficial ideas about it.... and willing to be spoon-fed such nonsense about either one BIG whale or some narrow team.. preposterous!!!!

Is it too late to get into Crypto now if you're new to the game?

I see a lot of people suggesting Litecoin lately.

That two day pump shows there's a lot of money on the sidelines ready to go.

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  Is it too late to get into Crypto now if you're new to the game?

I see a lot of people suggesting Litecoin lately.

Frequently, you are going to have people to tell you to buy stuff that has already pumped, and litecoin is an example of that; however, you cannot be sure about whether it is done pumping.

The halvening of litecoin is coming in early August, so some people believe that its halvening is a reason for it's price to go up.... and other people, including yours truly question the extent to which litecoin is providing much if any actual value to the space to justify it's current price or any pumping of it.

You asked about crypto, and this thread is about bitcoin, so you may want to post somewhere else the extent that you want to get into details about various other cryptos...

Regarding bitcoin, I always suggest that you attempt to figure out some kind of plan that works for you and your budget and your timeline... and dollar cost averaging remains a great way to get some stake into the game while you continue to study the space and to figure out how much more you might want to strategically invest. It is not too late, it is just a matter of figuring out a plan that is both comfortable for you while perhaps you might also figure out which areas you want to learn about or that you have time to learn about.

I started buying Bitcoin in late 2013, and studying the topic, and even though there are some basic concepts that you may be able to pick up quickly, there are a lot of misinformation sources, too, including possibly not understanding the difference between bitcoin and other cryptos.. as your faming of your questions seems to suggest that you might need to do a bit more research, perhaps?

Of course, you can post here, too and there is a decent amount of information already in various parts of this thread... that also links to other information... while considering that some information is better than other information... hahahahaha

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  Is it too late to get into Crypto now if you're new to the game?

Not at all, just a beginning. If you are going to invest into crypto, I would do it right now, we have couple years of bull market in front of us. Don't hesitate.

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  I see a lot of people suggesting Litecoin lately.

I personally did not see the use of Litecoin, it's not entirely a bad investment, but ONLY invest in things that YOU believe in. I could not put my money in their as the founder sold MAJOR stake of his share.

(04-04-2019 12:01 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Certainly, I am not going to complain about quasi-violent upwardly BTC price movements... and I am not going to complain if it goes crashing back down, too, even though I would personally prefer up...as is the case with many largely HODLers/accumulators, which you, bgbusiness, seem to be one of the current BTC HODLers/accumulators?

Yes, absolutely agree with everything that you have said.
For the most part, I would consider myself a HODLer / long-term investor.
I do have diversified my investment with 0x, xrp, and ethereum.

That's insane that you have been involved with the crypto market from 2013 or so, I have a quick question if you don't mind.

What kind of resources have you used to gain knowledge on this topic?

For me it's been
1. YouTube
- interview by entrepreneurs and major players in the crypto world like
CZ Binance, Winklevoss Twins, Tim Draper, Vitalik etc.
2. Books & Market Analysis
- Here and there, but I literally checked out two books from Barnes & Noble and 95% of the information were useless as I knew about them already.

(04-04-2019 01:29 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

(04-04-2019 12:01 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Certainly, I am not going to complain about quasi-violent upwardly BTC price movements... and I am not going to complain if it goes crashing back down, too, even though I would personally prefer up...as is the case with many largely HODLers/accumulators, which you, bgbusiness, seem to be one of the current BTC HODLers/accumulators?

Yes, absolutely agree with everything that you have said.
For the most part, I would consider myself a HODLer / long-term investor.
I do have diversified my investment with 0x, xrp, and ethereum.

That's insane that you have been involved with the crypto market from 2013 or so, I have a quick question if you don't mind.

What kind of resources have you used to gain knowledge on this topic?

For me it's been
1. YouTube
- interview by entrepreneurs and major players in the crypto world like
CZ Binance, Winklevoss Twins, Tim Draper, Vitalik etc.
2. Books & Market Analysis
- Here and there, but I literally checked out two books from Barnes & Noble and 95% of the information were useless as I knew about them already.

Of course, my resources have changed over the years, and I find a lot of links to materials that I post here from Bitcointalk.org.

I listen to quit a few podcasts, and current good ones are:

Bitcoin & markets
The bitcoin knowledge podcast
What bitcoin did
noded bitcoin podcast
tales from the crypt
the world crypto network podcast

If you need any links. Let me know.


Jameson Lopp has a good resources page, and I have not even gone through very much of it..

https://lopp.net/bitcoin-information.html

(04-03-2019 06:31 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Fuck, should have sold at 5300

Yep... Starting to look like that may have been our local top.

But maybe we will revisit it in a week or two, or it could take up to 6 months...

So, difficult to know, and anyone who says that he knows is overconfident...

(04-04-2019 01:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  Is it too late to get into Crypto now if you're new to the game?

I see a lot of people suggesting Litecoin lately.

Frequently, you are going to have people to tell you to buy stuff that has already pumped, and litecoin is an example of that; however, you cannot be sure about whether it is done pumping.

The halvening of litecoin is coming in early August, so some people believe that its halvening is a reason for it's price to go up.... and other people, including yours truly question the extent to which litecoin is providing much if any actual value to the space to justify it's current price or any pumping of it.

You asked about crypto, and this thread is about bitcoin, so you may want to post somewhere else the extent that you want to get into details about various other cryptos...

Regarding bitcoin, I always suggest that you attempt to figure out some kind of plan that works for you and your budget and your timeline... and dollar cost averaging remains a great way to get some stake into the game while you continue to study the space and to figure out how much more you might want to strategically invest. It is not too late, it is just a matter of figuring out a plan that is both comfortable for you while perhaps you might also figure out which areas you want to learn about or that you have time to learn about.

I started buying Bitcoin in late 2013, and studying the topic, and even though there are some basic concepts that you may be able to pick up quickly, there are a lot of misinformation sources, too, including possibly not understanding the difference between bitcoin and other cryptos.. as your faming of your questions seems to suggest that you might need to do a bit more research, perhaps?

Of course, you can post here, too and there is a decent amount of information already in various parts of this thread... that also links to other information... while considering that some information is better than other information... hahahahaha

I have a basic idea of how it works. Not enough to jump right into investing in it just yet though haha

I see right now that it's down -5.60%. I assume it would by wise to look at predictions if it's going to go up or down prior to investing.

Are there any sources in particular I should keep an eye on to trust/ignore to avoid misinformation? The majority of my knowledge on the subject has come from youtube.

(04-04-2019 01:16 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  Is it too late to get into Crypto now if you're new to the game?

Not at all, just a beginning. If you are going to invest into crypto, I would do it right now, we have couple years of bull market in front of us. Don't hesitate.

(04-04-2019 12:48 AM)Coffee Wrote:  I see a lot of people suggesting Litecoin lately.

I personally did not see the use of Litecoin, it's not entirely a bad investment, but ONLY invest in things that YOU believe in. I could not put my money in their as the founder sold MAJOR stake of his share.

In that case it sounds like it would be wise to start small. I saw in another thread, someone said that even $15 a week can go a long way in the long run if the market decides to feel good for a day.

(04-04-2019 02:13 PM)Coffee Wrote:  

(04-04-2019 01:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [ edited out]

I have a basic idea of how it works. Not enough to jump right into investing in it just yet though haha

I was not trying to denigrate your knowledge, intelligence or skills set in any kind of way.. however there still can be various kinds of learning curves in regards to your own investment strategies, whether you have a history of investment, and how you approached those other investments. Both bitcoin and other crypto can be both a blessing and a curse because it is offering a kind of 24/7 access to buying and selling and an overwhelming number of options, including an overwhelming amount of information (including misinformation) that is out there.

So, even if you have a lot of knowledge and experience, and you get involved, you are likely to continue to have a lot of learning experiences along the way. Even the smartest of OG (original gangster) bitcoiners are continuously describing how they are continuously learning new things in this moving target field... both bitcoin and crypto and even figuring out both how you feel /think about various other projects in the space that may or may not be directly or indirectly connected with bitcoin.

(04-04-2019 02:13 PM)Coffee Wrote:  I see right now that it's down -5.60%. I assume it would by wise to look at predictions if it's going to go up or down prior to investing.

Of course, guys are going to vary in their approach, but I believe that my style of investment does not attempt to make any kind of short term predictions about BTC price directions, but I do assume that in the longer run. 5-10 years bitcoin's prices are going to be higher than today's prices. I do not apply that principle to any other crypto, besides bitcoin.

I know that 5-10 years is a long time horizon, but merely because I might be considering my investment to play out over 5-10 years (hey I have already been in more than 5 years, and I continue to adjust/tweak my thinking, my practices, and my strategies), there is no locking into the position, we can adjust or tweak at any time, including completely getting out, if we believe that to be the prudent step. So merely because we might take steps based on longer views, we are not locked into such position and we can tweak our position along the way.. while it seems prudent to me, to consider such tweaking and to continue to study the bitcoin space (and yeah, reluctantly looking at some related matters/happenings in other cryptos, too.. without getting too distracted, hopefully).

(04-04-2019 02:13 PM)Coffee Wrote:  Are there any sources in particular I should keep an eye on to trust/ignore to avoid misinformation?

I listed some resources above. I would suggest both figuring out yourself, and largely focusing on learning about bitcoin first before venturing into a bunch of other distracting bullshit pump and dump get rich quick coins.. but hey, you can do what you want... If you mostly consider learning about bitcoin and establishing your BTC position.. and sticking with at least 80% in bitcoin (I personally have around 98% in bitcoin), then maybe you can later dabble a bit in some of the other crypto projects.

(04-04-2019 02:13 PM)Coffee Wrote:  The majority of my knowledge on the subject has come from youtube.

YouTube is all over the place.. Whether you are getting good knowledge is depending, partly, on the particular presenters. Some of the youtube stuff is pure crap.. of course, there are gems in there too.

I do agree when you are new at something you can learn from almost anyone, and after you are in for a while, you refine your tastes, but sometimes if you are sucking up bad information and bad frameworks for thinking, it could take years to shake yourself from some of the bad framework... and it is not because you are dumb.

Sometimes, too bad information and being somewhat a newbie can lead you into investing badly (not even that you are dumb).. even getting sucked into pump and dump scams. Very smart people get sucked into scams all of the time.

(04-04-2019 02:13 PM)Coffee Wrote:  In that case it sounds like it would be wise to start small. I saw in another thread, someone said that even $15 a week can go a long way in the long run if the market decides to feel good for a day.

Part of any investment is getting a good grasp on your own financial situation including figuring out your cash flow and other investments.. Also, good is to figure out your timeline, views on the asset, risk tolerance and skills.

Bitcoin and other crypto does offer you a lot of flexibility in how much to put in, and even small amounts can pay off decently in the medium or long run.

When I first got in (many of my stories are through this thread), I dedicated a certain amount of money to invest over then next 6 months, and that would have been from December 2013 to May 2014, and then towards the end of the 6 months I reassessed, and added an additional 6 months. By the time that I got to the end of 2014, I felt as if I had established a decent stake in bitcoin with two periods of investing by a kind of dollar cost averaging accumulation of bitcoin.

In early 2015, I ran into some cash flow problems.. go figure, and bitcoin was at its lowest and my holdings were worth quite less than half of what i had invested based on continued dropping BTC prices, even while I continued to buy cheaper and cheaper. There were about 3 months in early 2015 that I could not buy any BTC, and then an additional 3 months, that I was only able to buy $5 to $100 at a time, and in a kind of scattered and random way, based on new money coming in... .. but just think, even then, if I bought $125 worth, I would have gotten .5BTC... or if I bought $25 worth, I would have gotten .1BTC, so even buying small amounts of BTC did allow for decent amounts of BTC accumulation... at prices that retrospectively seem really good compared to where we are at today.

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, but if you study the BTC space, you will likely figure out that there is a lot of good things going on with bitcoin, furthermore, you can set up various ways to buy, and you don't even have to buy, just have them available and set up.. sometimes, it can take a while to set up various ways to buy and to figure out how you want to do that.. and to get your buy limits increased, including finding ways to save on fees and attempt to get the best bang for your buck... within your tolerance and trade-offs including considering how much privacy you might want to attempt to achieve with the ways that you accumulate your coins... and how to thereafter feel comfortable with how you secure your stash (hopefully building a stash that increases in value with the passage of time.. no guarantees, of course).

Below is a link to an interesting article regarding taking out a home loan that is backed by bitcoin (in Amsterdam, by the way).

Of course, Brock Pierce is not exactly free of drama, but the idea of the bitcoin backed mortgage is interesting.

https://bitcoinist.com/billionaire-brock...-mortgage/

Wow...

This below chart is really interesting to juxtapose BTC price performance in 4 year chunks, based on the halvenings...

Whoaza! Whoaza! Looks nice, real nice.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/111...9881252864

Below is a link to an article in which Tom Lee gives his current bitcoin assessment, including that he currently believes that BTC fair value is $14k - seems more than reasonable to me. Also, seems more than reasonable that bitcoin's current price is suppressed - so how long is such suppression going to last? another few months? 18months? longer?


https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/04/04/crypt...oin-14000/

Some peeps, including Peter Brandt, converting from bearish to bullish.

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/...8007421952

Here's an interesting theory that any new uptrend is going to lead BTC to the next peak 574 days longer than it took for the last peak, which would result in a July 30, 2023 peak that is in the about $150k arena...

Doesn't sound right to me, but it is still a decent theory and talking point.

https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/11...1049553920

This is a good video on 4 year cycle:

Here's another indicator called the Puell Multiple that is intended to give measures for BTC price movements relative to mining costs/revenues.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/misc-puell-multiple

If you are interested in these numbers, I would suggest clicking on the above link because that will give you a lot more snapshot details of the different lines at any point in the chart that interests you.

Red line = Miner revenue
Green line = bitcoin price
Yellow line = Puelle Multiple

(04-05-2019 09:13 PM)Windom Earle Wrote:  This is a good video on 4 year cycle:

I agree. It is a good video about 30 minutes long. I believe that he made his analysis in January or so, and he provides a decent historical discussion as well to largely go back to bitcoin's beginning to be offered on markets and to have a market price.

He discussed likely future BTC price performance that is likely to be in the bullish direction and similar to previous cycles in terms of exponential price rises (at least one more from his perspective).. He is suggesting the next UP cycle to take BTC's price into the approximately $150k to $200k arena..

(04-03-2019 06:31 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Fuck, should have sold at 5300

Looks like you might be getting another chance. Soon.

(04-06-2019 02:03 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Here's another indicator called the Puell Multiple that is intended to give measures for BTC price movements relative to mining costs/revenues.

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/misc-puell-multiple

If you are interested in these numbers, I would suggest clicking on the above link because that will give you a lot more snapshot details of the different lines at any point in the chart that interests you.

Red line = Miner revenue
Green line = bitcoin price
Yellow line = Puelle Multiple

Here's a solid article about the Puell Multiple:

https://medium.com/unconfiscatable/the-p...d755cfe358

Peter Brandt is good but he has a knack for deleting trades that flop out. He also hedges his Twitter bets by carefully wording his tweets. This time he says he "wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes parabolic". I don't think BTC is going past 12k mid 2020 but if his projections come through he'll be the king of TA.