I took all my positions out of cryptocurrency.
I don't really see it going 6k and blowing past that.

I will put whatever I can put in when it dips HARD. (20%+)

What I realized is that it's not the small gains you get from cryptocurrency going up 10%, 20%, but constantly adding more money to the market over a very long period of time.
I know it sounds pretty common sense, but never hit me until recently.

If I make 100% returns on 10k, that's extra 10k. However, if I only had couple thousand dollars invested, that's only couple thousand dollars of return. I think it's more important to ACTUALLY put money into the market over the next 2~2.5 years of bull-run than trying to "TIME' on daily basis.

(05-02-2019 04:33 PM)bgbusiness Wrote:  I took all my positions out of cryptocurrency.
I don't really see it going 6k and blowing past that.

I will put whatever I can put in when it dips HARD. (20%+)

What I realized is that it's not the small gains you get from cryptocurrency going up 10%, 20%, but constantly adding more money to the market over a very long period of time.
I know it sounds pretty common sense, but never hit me until recently.

If I make 100% returns on 10k, that's extra 10k. However, if I only had couple thousand dollars invested, that's only couple thousand dollars of return. I think it's more important to ACTUALLY put money into the market over the next 2~2.5 years of bull-run than trying to "TIME' on daily basis.

Your strategy might work, yet frequently bitcoin acts out in ways that tend to punish either fence sitters or people waiting for a "decent" dip.

We had a little crash down to $5k based on tether FUD, and many shorters have been r3ckt expecting the BTC price to continue to go down... and instead, what the fuck, prices seem to be going up.

Don't get me wrong, I would not mind a 20% plus correction, and I am kind of anticipating a 30% or more correction at some point, but sometimes we will experience several legs of UP before the inevitable 30% plus correction comes, and by then, it may have ben more profitable to have just had a bit more value in bitcoin, rather than waiting for a dip that pales in comparison to the UP.

I surely don't know if we are going into a punishing phase, and I surely don't play around with my BTC stash based on such anticipations in either price direction, and in that regard, I am still on the fence regarding whether the $3,122 bottom is in (which, if so, would thereby indicate that we are in bull market - even if it ends up in still a bit sideways before UP).

JayJuanMcGee it's not tether "fud" it's massive, criminal fraud.

The bottom IS IN.
The ATH in 2017 and couple cycles before that, the bear market was only 1.5 year.
The bear market has passed if you look at the duration of the other bear markets in the last two other cycles.

Therefore, I don't think we will reach another $3,100~, but I highly believe that we can still see $4000~$4500.
I will put back all of my investments by beginning of July. I want to see how next two months play out.

(05-02-2019 11:43 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  JayJuanMcGee it's not tether "fud" it's massive, criminal fraud.

whatever you want to call it, it does not seem to be affecting the bitcoin market exactly how shorters are attempting to predict. Shorts continue to build up (and get r3ckt, at least in the short term), while the BTC price moves in the opposite direction.

Sure, at some point, we are likely to get a BTC price correction of 20% or 30% or more, but, for example, if the BTC price goes up to $10k in the next weeks or months, even, prior to the price correcting 30% or more, we still end up higher than our current price (with a kind of opposite than expected result), which means it may have been better to have preserved some stake in the BTC long direction rather than putting all of your eggs in the negative BTC price direction.

We have seen the BTC market behave this way on several occassions, when many folks were predicting BTC demise and negative BTC price movement, but the BTC price defied expectations. I am not saying that is going to happen again, but I am asserting that it could happen, and it frequently seems to be a good thing to prepare your BTC holdings for both UP and DOWN, including now.

Furthermore, scandals are not new to the bitcoin ecosystem, and scandals do not necessarily reflect on BTC fundamentals as much as they reflect on some bad actors that might be affiliated with exchanges, various finanicilal institutions, government bodies and individuals, and several folks spreading disinformation about the whole tether/bitfinex situation in order to take advantage (or to create) more drama about a situation than it deserves. That is part of the reason that I refer to it as "FUD", because even FUD is going to retain some aspect of truth.. so frequently each of us has to be careful about how much we buy into narrow narratives, especially when mainstream media gets on the case and magnifies whatever variation of the drama that they feel plays into their preferred narrative.

Of course, some government sectors and even status quo financial institutions might salivate at this kind of situation, and exacerbate it, if they believe that they can take down Tether and bitfinex (and bitcoin prices in the process), which has not happened yet.

I am not saying that a downfall of Tether or Bitfinex or some other combination will not happen, but those institutions are not coming down exactly in a way that many (even a seeming majority) folks seem to expect ( I remember similar excited and certitude proclamations of the death of bitfinex (and thus bitcoin too) in this very thread in August 2016 that did not happen) - even though currently, and even in 2016, too) there certainly have been arbitrage opportunities that seem to reflect the more difficulties in moving dollars out of Bitfinex rather than the more easy ability to move digital currencies, including bitcoin - and even digital movement - liquidity has been stifled for Bitfinex users, while bitcoin continues to plod along with decently fast transaction times and low-ass transaction fees and continued ongoing lightning developments, too.

Crypto Bites: Chat with Tim Draper and Adam Draper

Interview that I am watching right now. Tim Draper is not only a great VClist and an investor, but a great father imo.

On a side note, I went to Barnes & Noble, surprised that I could find couple books on crypto.

I started reading Cryptoassets by Chris Burniske as it caught my attention, dropped the book after realizing that I knew most of it and it was just a bunch of information recycled from other sources that you can easily find on the internet or articles...

(05-03-2019 01:17 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  [videoyoutube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RCt8LyOMeo[/video]

Crypto Bites: Chat with Tim Draper and Adam Draper

Interview that I am watching right now. Tim Draper is not only a great VClist and an investor, but a great father imo.

On a side note, I went to Barnes & Noble, surprised that I could find couple books on crypto.

I started reading Cryptoassets by Chris Burniske as it caught my attention, dropped the book after realizing that I knew most of it and it was just a bunch of information recycled from other sources that you can easily find on the internet or articles...

Yes. I watched that 47 minute video, and it was so easy to watch, interesting, and kind of fun/entertaining, that I could not stop watching, once I started. Thanks for the link, bgbusiness.

(05-03-2019 12:39 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-02-2019 11:43 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  JayJuanMcGee it's not tether "fud" it's massive, criminal fraud.

whatever you want to call it, it does not seem to be affecting the bitcoin market exactly how shorters are attempting to predict. Shorts continue to build up (and get r3ckt, at least in the short term), while the BTC price moves in the opposite direction.

Tether seems rather fucked, but I suspect tether was never really that big of a deal with Bitcoin and the world being better of with another piece of shitware dead.

(05-03-2019 10:00 AM)BBinger Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 12:39 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-02-2019 11:43 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  JayJuanMcGee it's not tether "fud" it's massive, criminal fraud.

whatever you want to call it, it does not seem to be affecting the bitcoin market exactly how shorters are attempting to predict. Shorts continue to build up (and get r3ckt, at least in the short term), while the BTC price moves in the opposite direction.

Tether seems rather fucked, but I suspect tether was never really that big of a deal with Bitcoin and the world being better of with another piece of shitware dead.

Sure it is possible that Tether is going to die, but I would not write off tether too early. Furthermore, the "sky is falling" assertions about tether has resulted in a slightly more than 2% fluctuation in its price - which I would consider quite far from dire - in terms of recent impact based on actual (rather than perceived) market fluctuation.

(05-03-2019 12:39 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-02-2019 11:43 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  JayJuanMcGee it's not tether "fud" it's massive, criminal fraud.

whatever you want to call it, it does not seem to be affecting the bitcoin market exactly how shorters are attempting to predict. Shorts continue to build up (and get r3ckt, at least in the short term), while the BTC price moves in the opposite direction.

Sure, at some point, we are likely to get a BTC price correction of 20% or 30% or more, but, for example, if the BTC price goes up to $10k in the next weeks or months, even, prior to the price correcting 30% or more, we still end up higher than our current price (with a kind of opposite than expected result), which means it may have been better to have preserved some stake in the BTC long direction rather than putting all of your eggs in the negative BTC price direction.

We have seen the BTC market behave this way on several occassions, when many folks were predicting BTC demise and negative BTC price movement, but the BTC price defied expectations. I am not saying that is going to happen again, but I am asserting that it could happen, and it frequently seems to be a good thing to prepare your BTC holdings for both UP and DOWN, including now.

Furthermore, scandals are not new to the bitcoin ecosystem, and scandals do not necessarily reflect on BTC fundamentals as much as they reflect on some bad actors that might be affiliated with exchanges, various finanicilal institutions, government bodies and individuals, and several folks spreading disinformation about the whole tether/bitfinex situation in order to take advantage (or to create) more drama about a situation than it deserves. That is part of the reason that I refer to it as "FUD", because even FUD is going to retain some aspect of truth.. so frequently each of us has to be careful about how much we buy into narrow narratives, especially when mainstream media gets on the case and magnifies whatever variation of the drama that they feel plays into their preferred narrative.

Of course, some government sectors and even status quo financial institutions might salivate at this kind of situation, and exacerbate it, if they believe that they can take down Tether and bitfinex (and bitcoin prices in the process), which has not happened yet.

I am not saying that a downfall of Tether or Bitfinex or some other combination will not happen, but those institutions are not coming down exactly in a way that many (even a seeming majority) folks seem to expect ( I remember similar excited and certitude proclamations of the death of bitfinex (and thus bitcoin too) in this very thread in August 2016 that did not happen) - even though currently, and even in 2016, too) there certainly have been arbitrage opportunities that seem to reflect the more difficulties in moving dollars out of Bitfinex rather than the more easy ability to move digital currencies, including bitcoin - and even digital movement - liquidity has been stifled for Bitfinex users, while bitcoin continues to plod along with decently fast transaction times and low-ass transaction fees and continued ongoing lightning developments, too.

By the way, I have been giving a bit of additional though to the Bitfinex FUD, and surely there is some shenanigans going on with the banking relations that Bitfinex chose to enter into, but since late 2016 and into early 2017, Bitfinex has been forced into variations of extreme "creativity," in terms of how they attempt to finance the dollar side of trades, and surely there have been some BIG players that would not ONLY have liked to have completely written them off, but they also desire to accelerate such Bitfinex demise to the extent that they would be capable of spreading FUD, exaggerating and spinning actual facts, and even, perhaps, contributing in various ways to attack and attempt to destroy Bitfinex.

Sure, at some point, these BIGGER players might become successful to undermine Bitfinex, and even perhaps to get their exchange "shut down," yet we cannot under-estimate Bitfinex's creativity to create digital investment vehicles, including their upcoming IEO (initial exchange offering)(seem like they did some kind of equity offer like this previously), and realistically speaking, Bitfinex has shared a decent amount of transparency about the shortage of their funds (in the neighborhood of 26%) that also establishes, if true, that their level of current fractional reserve banking remains way the fuck below various fractional reserve shenanigans that exists in traditional banking institution and also that is quite likely to exist in greater extremes in other (likely to be more shady - and smaller) exchanges.

Part of a constant differentiating aspect of Bitfinex, as compared with MTGOX, remains Bitfinex's ongoing practice of attempting to stay somewhat ahead of the more dire stories about their circumstances by putting out various press releases that attempt to contextualize and contain the negative news in such a way to both show positive angles regarding the circumstances and also feasible and reasonable plans regarding how they intend to address the various negative circumstances that they find themselves in.

I have never proclaimed to take the various spin attempts of Bitfinex without decent amounts of reservations (because from time to time, what Bitfinex asserts sometimes does not completely address reasonable negative inferences, and sometimes they also play some of their creativity too much to their favor, too), but I have continuously asserted that giving too much weight to either mainstream renditions of the situation and/or buying into the most dire of "sky is falling" spins could well get guys into a lot of trouble in their hesitancies to invest into bitcoin (fence sitting) or their selling their BTC at too low of a price (and perhaps sometimes taking short positions that end up causing them to get r3ckt).

Here's an interesting article from a couple of days ago that describes the NY Office of Attorney General as engaged in exaggerations and misrepresentations concerning Tether's attempt to cooperate with the NYOAG investigation of the matter.

Who knows how these matters will play out, but from experience, sometimes we will see governments (such as prosecutors) engage in exaggerations in order to attempt to get their way - which may or may not be successful in this particular case. Of course, continuous and ongoing developments in this matter including an Order for the NYOAG to show cause that is due on Monday.. which may reveal additional disclosures of facts that are currently not in the public discourse.

All I know is if I had a position I would cash out BEFORE shit hits the fan completely.

We get the biggest news in crypto in 2 years, it's a possible black swan, and there is a huge pump?

Not buying it.

My guess is it's people trying to exit usdt by buying btc, and bitmex doing a short squeeze, which they will not be able to again if tether folds (so they are going for a big one.)

^^ Why bother? BTC will be over 250k in a couple of years.

(05-03-2019 04:46 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  All I know is if I had a position I would cash out BEFORE shit hits the fan completely.

Ultimately, you are the one who needs to be comfortable with your BTC investment/trading strategy, and surely since my BTC approach has been always been to consider long term accumulation - and not to get caught up with back and forth hype, I don't make much, if any, adjustment to my strategy based on these kinds of "bitcoin is going to crash" postulations.

Anyone in bitcoin medium to long term and studying BTC news, momentum and attack mechanisms have witnessed too many times in which the short term BTC price moves opposite to expectations, and by the time, a guy might want to get "in" the price has made a vast majority of its UPwards movement already which could cause buying at the top and selling at the bottom, rather than the other way around.

In other words, historically, assertions of "shit is gonna" hit the fan have been a dime a dozen.

(05-03-2019 04:46 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  We get the biggest news in crypto in 2 years, it's a possible black swan, and there is a huge pump?

Not buying it.

Hahahahaha... You do seem to be buying assertions that the bitcoin market is manipulated by a small sector of actors (and exchanges), and with the passage of time, evidence for those kinds of claims have become weaker and weaker, even though the "market is manipulated" claims have continued to be made.

In other words, I doubt that the inferences of manipulation are as strong as you are making them out to be, and your expectation to get out - while having decent odds of getting back in at a substantially lower price might NOT be as high as you are suspecting them to be.... and adding the words, "black swan" does not cause the situation to become more likely, merely because a lot of supposedly "smart" others are making similar kinds of doom and gloom claims.

(05-03-2019 04:46 PM)godfather dust Wrote:  My guess is it's people trying to exit usdt by buying btc, and bitmex doing a short squeeze, which they will not be able to again if tether folds (so they are going for a big one.)

You don't need to guess. Those kinds of claims are being made by a lot of supposedly "smart" people, and those kinds of claims are not really in any category of new nor insightful.

I also have little clue regarding how long it could take to play out to find out what is going to happen in terms of a kind of downward dip, like you are expecting. The next couple of months are likely going to continue to be interesting - but hey, I have remained interested in bitcoin developmens and Bitcoin price dynamics whether "action" is taking place or not.

Perhaps this image will help some of you guys to better appreciate the significance of green BTC candles in their relationship to tether?

I saw a twitter post yesterday which I can't seem to find now but it said that between Coinbase, Grayscale and Square those three companies are now buying up 50% of all the newly minted Bitcoins each month - if that's true it's pretty crazy, that's effectively a halving right there.

This is quite good for anyone who hasn't seen it.

https://www.btcandfriends.com/

(05-04-2019 05:20 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  This is quite good for anyone who hasn't seen it.

https://www.btcandfriends.com/

LOL, I have subscribed to that channel.
They are pretty good actually

Just bought a Bitfi hardware wallet, it is legit.

(05-04-2019 11:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Just bought a Bitfi hardware wallet, it is legit.

Never heard of it. Why would you potentially put your coins into jeopardy with some unknown, and especially, when you are asking us.

Why don't you provide some information about your choice and if you looked at options? If you are technical that is one thing, but if not, why not go with a reputable name like Trezor or Ledger? I prefer Trezor myself. Once you get used to the reputable ones, then maybe you could venture out, after you become a bit more familiar.

(05-05-2019 01:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 11:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Just bought a Bitfi hardware wallet, it is legit.

Never heard of it. Why would you potentially put your coins into jeopardy with some unknown, and especially, when you are asking us.

Why don't you provide some information about your choice and if you looked at options? If you are technical that is one thing, but if not, why not go with a reputable name like Trezor or Ledger? I prefer Trezor myself. Once you get used to the reputable ones, then maybe you could venture out, after you become a bit more familiar.

I’m upgrading my ledger. The 24 word seed is too big of a risk for me.

(05-05-2019 02:26 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

(05-05-2019 01:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 11:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Just bought a Bitfi hardware wallet, it is legit.

Never heard of it. Why would you potentially put your coins into jeopardy with some unknown, and especially, when you are asking us.

Why don't you provide some information about your choice and if you looked at options? If you are technical that is one thing, but if not, why not go with a reputable name like Trezor or Ledger? I prefer Trezor myself. Once you get used to the reputable ones, then maybe you could venture out, after you become a bit more familiar.

I’m upgrading my ledger. The 24 word seed is too big of a risk for me.

What do you mean 24 words seed being too big a risk? I don't understand.

I have a 24 words seed and I leave it with my documents, not even a safe deposit box. I just swap the order of the words around so nobody except myself and another family member knows about it. For example I swap the first word with the 15th word and swap the 3rd word with the 20th.

Ledger nano S work on Android and iOS now with ledger live app. I never had to upgrade to Nano X.

(05-05-2019 07:39 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

(05-05-2019 02:26 AM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

(05-05-2019 01:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 11:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Just bought a Bitfi hardware wallet, it is legit.

Never heard of it. Why would you potentially put your coins into jeopardy with some unknown, and especially, when you are asking us.

Why don't you provide some information about your choice and if you looked at options? If you are technical that is one thing, but if not, why not go with a reputable name like Trezor or Ledger? I prefer Trezor myself. Once you get used to the reputable ones, then maybe you could venture out, after you become a bit more familiar.

I’m upgrading my ledger. The 24 word seed is too big of a risk for me.

What do you mean 24 words seed being too big a risk? I don't understand.

I have a 24 words seed and I leave it with my documents, not even a safe deposit box. I just swap the order of the words around so nobody except myself and another family member knows about it. For example I swap the first word with the 15th word and swap the 3rd word with the 20th.

Ledger nano S work on Android and iOS now with ledger live app. I never had to upgrade to Nano X.

If anyone finds that 24 word seed, your bitcoin will disappear for ever. With bitfi, it has no 24 word seed, you create your own passphrase that only you know. Something that you can actually remember yourself. It also doesn’t store a private key anywhere, and uses the custom password to create it on the fly. This way there is no risk on your hardware. Substituting the order of the words is a good idea but that is viewed as a very basic form of encryption and a determined adversary can figure that out.

Here's a nice little topic for a tweet thread. Funny how a kind of FUD desperation kicks in.. and even some guys here seem to buy into such FUD desperation - while upwards BTC price pressures continue on....

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/statu...5953472514




Yes, Bitcoin is likely to experience a decent number of 30% plus corrections between now and $10k, and thereafter likely to experience another decent number of 30% plus correction between $10k and $20k and thereafter on its journey into a new ATH that is likely to be within a $50k to $350k window.

Guys have a choice to prepare for possible upwards, or wait for various 30% plus price corrections. Seems like we have seen these kinds of BTC price dynamics previously, no?

Last time around, we had now banned member Satoshi contributing to the spread of nonsense here, and thereafter worshiped banned member Armogan pumping alt coin and ICO richnesses.