Thoughts about alts season incoming? The bitcoin dominance seems to me being way too high right now.

(05-11-2019 04:32 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  Thoughts about alts season incoming? The bitcoin dominance seems to me being way too high right now.

Here's a nice depiction of the current alt coin situation, as compared with bitcoin.

Anybody think this last 1500-2000$ run could be due to the trade war and uncertainty in China?

(05-11-2019 06:41 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Anybody think this last 1500-2000$ run could be due to the trade war and uncertainty in China?

That kind of an explanation has not been provided by anyone, and of course, Bitcoin's price dynamics are frequently a combination of a variety of factors, including momentum and manipulation.

Yet, I do find that there is a bit of a seeming failure of the Tether/Bitfinex FUD along with the failure of the Binance hacking and related FUD that seem to be interesting aspects of the current BTC price dynamics.. more likely strength of underlying fundamentals ongoing recking of shorts that keep stacking up... .. yet not being fulfilled... which means that part of the ongoing bull run seems to be fueled on bear tears, which was mentioned in the underlying link of one of my earlier posts.

My bags aren't heavy enough, weird to be pissed off your investments are going up.

(05-11-2019 02:24 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  My bags aren't heavy enough, weird to be pissed off your investments are going up.

Anyone can become a bit nervous when the BTC price is moving so far and so fast in largely only one direction, and I have had to go through and restructure several of my sell orders - especially when so many of them get triggered, but it is supposed to be part of the plan, yet sometimes when orders are only filling in one direction, then it can become a bit uncomfortable.

Yes 7k this is great. Hope everyone longed it or held.

(05-09-2019 05:16 AM)longshots Wrote:  what are you guys thinking of holding alts during this run? I hold a pretty large stack of VET and believe its massively undervalued at the moment however it seems like btc is gaining dominance with each day.

Makes me wonder if I should exchange my vet for btc and then get in to vet after btc stabilizes ?

The only shitcoin I have is NEO. I would pretty much put 99% of your portfolio in bitcoin. There is a good chance it will be a winner takes all (most) scenario.

Edit

This maximalist Bitcoin eating everything theory that is talked about online is not convincing. Greed is human nature and I just don't see this being upended in the next 3 years before the next bear market. When BTC price stabilises you'll see people throw money into alts as they've done for a decade.

In any case the market looks incredibly bullish and it's hard to deny that right now. I'm really glad I abandoned hyperwave theory. Outside of the Tone Vays retard circle all the smart people abandoned it when we saw BTC close above 5k on the weekly chart. Earlier in the thread I said 10-12k BTC before halvening but seeing 7k this early makes me think maybe ATH is possible too.

Translation: get into crypto soonish if you already haven't. You'll be up by May next year on your investment if you stick to BTC or the top alts.

To add to what burner said, the crypto market has a cycle:

1. Sideways / accumulation phase: Money flows into BTC, BTC goes up slowly while ALTs maintain fiat value but bleed in satoshis

2. Fast and sudden bull market: BTC shoots up, peaks, and then goes sideways while money flows into the ALTs, allowing them to moon

3. Bear market hits: BTC goes down as everyone goes for the exits to fiat... ALTs dump harder

Then repeat.

Right now, we are in step 1.

I admit.
Seeing 7k for bitcoin...it's pretty unbelievable.

I made a mistake of going out at 5.1~5.2k thinking that it will be rejected around 6k and I can buyback at 4k or below. That was a huge mistake, going back in the market...right now. I don't care. Bitcoin is still cheap if it does go up to 250k+ as I predict.

I plan to throw big money in but waiting for BTC price to correct. Hoping for 5400 level but TA analysts saying they don't see price going under 6k. In a bull market it has not been the case that the price dropped more than 40% from the top so that's roughly 4500 now. Will definitely margin long if that happens.

I understand now why they call it a bull run. Riding this bull is making me anxious. I've already more than doubled my initial investment. I should cut and run. But the HODL inclination is just too great to do that.

I think the key at this point is waiting for another consolidation.

The last consolidation (tight period for a few weeks) was that sideways action from April 1 to about April 22. I had the breakout level pegged at 5488 level ( coinbase) and I did buy when it rose above that on good volume (broke out). The problem was, I set a stop in case it reversed, which it did. So, I got stopped out. That's my method and I stick with it , even if some trades "leave me behind" because more often than not, when an asset corrects 8% or more after a breakout, it goes on to take a bath.

BTC however, reversed from that correction and of course, is now off to the races. Oh well, I'm hoping we can form another multi week consolidation ( 6800-7500 range?) that will form another pivot point. That would be healthy action. If it does and forms a good buyable pivot, I'll buy again. If done right, I'll eventually catch it and be on for the ride. BTC , for now, is extended and I would not buy here. Yeah, it could run to 15K from here, but, for risk management reasons, I don't buy extended stocks/cryptos.

(05-11-2019 09:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-11-2019 06:41 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Anybody think this last 1500-2000$ run could be due to the trade war and uncertainty in China?

That kind of an explanation has not been provided by anyone, and of course, Bitcoin's price dynamics are frequently a combination of a variety of factors, including momentum and manipulation.

Yet, I do find that there is a bit of a seeming failure of the Tether/Bitfinex FUD along with the failure of the Binance hacking and related FUD that seem to be interesting aspects of the current BTC price dynamics.. more likely strength of underlying fundamentals ongoing recking of shorts that keep stacking up... .. yet not being fulfilled... which means that part of the ongoing bull run seems to be fueled on bear tears, which was mentioned in the underlying link of one of my earlier posts.

Here's a nice little article providing a variety of explanations for the current BTC price run-up.... Nothing in there about china.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/...catalysts/


>>>>>>>>>>As Bitcoin Price Keeps Surging, We Examine Potential Catalysts

"-Improving technicals, such as last month's double break out of Bitcoin price upon the "Golden Cross"

-Traders exiting their Tether (USDT) positions and getting into Bitcoin and the major altcoins, especially the office of the New York Attorney General (NYAG) announced that it was investigating Bitfinex and Tether (and the resulting revelation that Tether was only 74% backed by cash and cash equivalents).

-Tether (USDT) managing to maintain its peg to the dollar despite all the drama surrounding Bifinex and Tether (unlike what happened in October 2018, when USDT fell to as low as $0.86).

-The countdown to Bitcoin's next block reward halving event, which is estimated to take place on 23 May 2020.
Bloomberg reporting on May 6 that Fidelity Investments "will buy and sell the world’s most popular digital asset for institutional customers within a few weeks."

-Reports that came out towards the end of last month about two of the biggest brokerages in the U.S., E*Trade Financial and TD Ameritrade, preparing to launch Bitcoin trading on their platforms

-The Wall Street Journal's article (published on May 2) about Facebook's crypto-based payments system.

-Diar Research reporting on May 6 that the "number of transactions on-chain is also just shy of the all-time-high of December 2017."

-The realization by many that "we must be in a bull market" after the attack on Binance on May 7 since it seemingly had no negative impact on the price of Bitcoin.

-U.S. Congressman Bradley Sherman (D-CA) asking his colleagues to introduce "a bill to outlaw cryptocurrency purchases by Americans" being taken as a bullish sign by many fans of crypto, such as Anthony Pompliano (aka "Pomp), who said on May 10 that Congressman Sherman's remarks only served as an ad for crypto and helped to confirm its validity.

-New York City Blockchain Week.

-The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). "
<<<<<<<<<<

No one is mentioning that Binance paused deposits and withdrawals this week, allowing them to p&d price as they please

(they just resumed them)

Tell me this looks organic

(05-12-2019 10:18 AM)redbeard Wrote:  No one is mentioning that Binance paused deposits and withdrawals this week, allowing them to p&d price as they please

(they just resumed them)

Where are you seeing that Binance resumed deposits and withdrawals? I'm seeing that they are still suspended on the exchange. No announcements or chatter about them being reopened either.

(05-12-2019 01:39 AM)bgbusiness Wrote:  I admit.
Seeing 7k for bitcoin...it's pretty unbelievable.

I made a mistake of going out at 5.1~5.2k thinking that it will be rejected around 6k and I can buyback at 4k or below. That was a huge mistake, going back in the market...right now. I don't care. Bitcoin is still cheap if it does go up to 250k+ as I predict.

I would think that a kind of incrementalist plan and dollar cost averaging would work better than attempting to go balls to the walls with all in and all out approaches that try to anticipate the price moves of an asset, such as bitcoin, that frequently goes counter to sentiment... at least in the short term.

In the end, many of us realize that in the longer term, BTC prices are going to go up, and even likely to go up in a BIG way, but in the meantime, there is all kinds of shenanigans and manipulation taking place in bitcoin on a regular ongoing basis.

@JJG your experience allows you to keep a calm head about price movements.

If you were a n00b who just found out about Bitcoin, what investment plan would you recommend?

I would bet there are many men reading this thread right now considering FOMO'ing in.

(05-12-2019 10:33 AM)Lampwick Wrote:  

(05-12-2019 10:18 AM)redbeard Wrote:  No one is mentioning that Binance paused deposits and withdrawals this week, allowing them to p&d price as they please

(they just resumed them)

Where are you seeing that Binance resumed deposits and withdrawals? I'm seeing that they are still suspended on the exchange. No announcements or chatter about them being reopened either.

I don't have a Binance account but Twitter says Tuesday:

(05-12-2019 11:40 AM)redbeard Wrote:  @JJG your experience allows you to keep a calm head about price movements.

If you were a n00b who just found out about Bitcoin, what investment plan would you recommend?

I would bet there are many men reading this thread right now considering FOMO'ing in.

There is some truth in what you say, redbeard, especially when guys might not have any kind of position in bitcoin, at all, and they are just hearing about bitcoin. I also understand that perceptions vary based on if a guy has years of investment experience (and presumably has accumulated a lot of investments) and if a guy is in the earlier stages of accumulating investments.. which might cause him to focus more on crypto rather than diversifying with traditional investments.

I have been following similar kinds of investment strategies since I left home in my early days. Initially I did not go to college, and I learned about financial management from self-help type people, and the most solid principles were to organize yourself in such a way that you could live within your means, and put away a certain portion of your income towards investing... My incomes was not high in those days, and also several years later, when i went to college, I did use student loans for investing (of course in a very prudent way, too, since i knew that they were deferred interest).

As the years went by, I learned more of those kinds of prudential finanicial principles, including paying off higher interest loans/credit first, and being prudent with the extent that you use credit to invest in yourself and in possible appreciating rather than depreciating assets (such as consumption goods)...

Furthermore, quite early on, I practiced strategies to project my cashflow for 6-18 months in advance, depending on outstanding obligation projections... actually in the beginning, I just projected for a couple of months at a time, but I kind of learned how to use excel spreadsheets to efficiently project ahead for longer periods.

Of course in late 2013, when i got into bitcoin, bitcoin was recognizably at the top of a bubble, so throughout my initial investing and accumulating, I was continuing to buy BTC as the price went down (and that had its own scary components, with many people suggesting that I was dumb to continue to buy rather than sell), so by the time that I established my initial stake in late 2014, I had not really experienced runaway BTC prices, because bitcoin was then at the bottom of that (which I did not know at the time, either).

Anyhow, I had not been faced with what appears to be our current BTC price situation that seems to have a lot more optimism regarding UP, but I still think that guys should try to formulate financial (including BTC accumulation) plans for themselves that involve a period of time, such as 6 months, and projecting their own budgets, cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin, risk tolerance, time available to them and skills and timeline that would cause them to create a personally suitable investment plan for their initial period of time, and of course they can reassess along the way too.

Of course, they could engage in some front loading of their investment, but they should still be attempting to exercise a decent amount of prudence to prepare for either price direction, including maintaining money to buy on dips of 30% or more that can happen at any time and of course, dollar cost averaging, too, until they reach their target allocation. My initial target allocation was to put 10% of my total quasi-liquid investment value into bitcoin. Of course, plans can vary and be subsequently tweaked in that regard too, but it is good at least to start with a personally tailored plan and tweak from there, rather than engaging in either blanket approach or risky gambling approaches - even if you feel inclined towards gambling (I know that many guys do, which is usually not a prudent approach).

Thanks JJG. I've been meaning to write a "so you want to buy Bitcoin" post for a while, and with the new price excitement, I think it's time.

Here's the three things I think you should do in order to plan your Bitcoin investment out. You might not think these suggestions are sexy, but guess what, too bad. Boring works. Keep it simple, stupid.

1. Understand Bitcoin

The problem with most "crypto investors" is they dive right in, buy every coin in sight, and have no idea what's the difference between PoW and PoS.

Instead, I suggest everyone start by investing their time (not money!) into Bitcoin. When I heard about Bitcoin, it took me about a year to understand it enough to make my first purchase. Because I waited, I was more confident in my investment and didn't panic sell.

The fastest way to understand Bitcoin is to read Saifedean Ammous' "The Bitcoin Standard." It's the perfect blend of history, economics, and technicals to get beginners up to date quickly.

You can buy it on Amazon or download it here for free.

Another great resource is Jameson Lopp's Bitcoin Resources page.

Spend 30 minutes every day catching up and researching the crypto space, and you'll be an expert in no time. The result is that you won't lose money at the shitcoin casino, and will instead make long term moves that will pay off.

2. Fix Your Finances

Like JJG mentions, the key to successful Bitcoin investing is...to learn successful investing.

Many people dive into Bitcoin without any investment experience, and end up making terrible decisions because they don't know what the heck a portfolio is.

There's a lot of personal finance advice out there, but in my opinion, the best resource is Ramit Sethi's "I Will Teach You To Be Rich." Dave Ramsey is nice, but most of his advice is geared towards boomers looking to retire. Ramit's book is focused more towards 20-30 year olds who want to start building a financial foundation without giving up their social lives.

3. Dollar Cost Average

OK, at this point, you should have a financial system set up. The numbers will vary based on your personal financial situation, but it'll look something like this:

I personally think the easiest way is to determine how much you want your "other investments" bucket you want to allocate to Bitcoin, then set up automatic buys. Let's pretend you have $200 every month left over for investing, and want 10% BTC, that's a $20 buy. Do this every month and you'll have a ton of Bitcoin in no time.

Timing the market is difficult and not worth the time investment. You're much better off spending your hours leveling up at work, getting a fat promotion, and dumping it into Bitcoin...vs gambling on altcoins.

(05-12-2019 02:27 PM)redbeard Wrote:  [edited out]

I agree with everything that you say, redbeard, except, I know that it both takes a while to set up various bitcoin accounts (ways to buy bitcoin) and to learn various bitcoin basics.. and also to learn not to get distracted by the various shitcoin bullshit.

Accordingly, I would suggest that any guy, who is able to do a quick study of his personal/financial situation, can start to invest in bitcoin as soon as within a few days of setting matters up. In that way, the dollar cost averaging can start almost right away, as a guy continues to study the matter.

If a guy is really new and does not know hardly anything about bitcoin, except that he wants to learn and to get involved in bitcoin, then Dollar cost averaging can be set at really minimal amounts, even $5 per week... just to get used to the idea.. and practice does help to make a person learn a bit better and while more actively engaging with the topic.

Let's say, for example, a guy knows that he has $100 extra every month that he can invest into bitcoin. He could start right away by investing about 1/3 of that $33... and then just dollar cost averaging with a similar or smaller amount to spread his buys throughout the month. Actually, I recommend getting a weekly amount together and investing that amount once a week, but I do understand that if the weakly amount ends up being really small (like less than $20 per week), then it might make more sense to make such purchases on a monthly basis, rather than weekly.... but if a guy is learning, then it might still make sense to actively invest, even small amounts, such as $5 per week, just to facilitate the learning process.

Anyhow, my point is that some guys can study as they go, and getting various BTC accounts set up does take some time, and it is better not to be rushing those kinds of things, especially if the price starts to move rapidly and then guys are having difficulties getting accurate information or even getting through the long lines that tend to evolve during the crazy times.

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