I assumed 4200 was unbreakable but the more it gets tested the weaker it becomes. It's been tested 4 times now and we are going for a fifth. Despite bear market there's a lot of news that makes it seem like we are in the bull market. Binance ICOs are doing 5x, a lot of coins are posting very good gains recently (LTC, EOS, BNB, ETH, TRX). Out of the top 10 only XRP, XLM, BCH lost money over the past few months. These things will bring BTC price higher as more people will want to put fiat in rather than cash out. Breaking 4200 means it probably goes to 5300 then probably back down unless it can break the 200 MA. Unless the 200MA is broken and we me make a higher high than 6500 and manage to stay there most will not see it being out of the bear market.

Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

Here's QuadrigaCX update that was published here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg50071607

>>>>>>>
Here is our update about the QuadrigaCX case, also published on our twitter account:
https://twitter.com/whitestream5/status/...8100576256

Since EY lately discovered some of QuadrigaCX cold wallet addresses, we managed to analyze some of them.
Together with insights that we already extract from QuadrigaCX hot wallets, we can shed some light on QuadrigaCX Bitcoin transactions from the last six month.

The time period we checked was since July 2018 to February 2019, the average Bitcoin price at this time frame is around $5,700.
We saw that both QuadrigaCX cold and hot wallets sent around 5,571 BTC to a suspicious intermediary wallet at this time period.
We suspect that this wallet belongs to QuadrigaCX too.

QuadrigaCX hot wallet sent to the suspicious intermediary wallet 3,432 BTC, which is around $19,500,000 US.
QuadrigaCX hot wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

QuadrigaCX cold wallet sent to the suspicious intermediary wallet 2,139 BTC, which is around $12,200,000 US.
QuadrigaCX cold wallet:
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1...f8LspCKBYP

The suspicious intermediary wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

The suspicious wallet has interactions with more Bitcoin exchanges and not just from QuadrigaCX, but most of his incomes are from QuadrigaCX.
The suspicious wallet sent most of his funds to two Chinese exchanges, Huobi and Binance.

Around 1,176 BTC were sent to Binance, which is $6,700,000 US.
Around 5,263 BTC were sent to Huobi, which is $30,000,000 US.

Huobi wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/Huobi.com-2

Binance wallet:
https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/00.../addresses

Thank you.
whitestream - Blockchain Intelligence
https://whitestream.io<<<<<<<

(03-08-2019 03:45 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  I assumed 4200 was unbreakable but the more it gets tested the weaker it becomes. It's been tested 4 times now and we are going for a fifth. Despite bear market there's a lot of news that makes it seem like we are in the bull market. Binance ICOs are doing 5x, a lot of coins are posting very good gains recently (LTC, EOS, BNB, ETH, TRX). Out of the top 10 only XRP, XLM, BCH lost money over the past few months. These things will bring BTC price higher as more people will want to put fiat in rather than cash out. Breaking 4200 means it probably goes to 5300 then probably back down unless it can break the 200 MA. Unless the 200MA is broken and we me make a higher high than 6500 and manage to stay there most will not see it being out of the bear market.

I remain skeptical, but these are good points.

(03-08-2019 03:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

If we can break and hold 4200 i'm considering that as a trend reversal - that will be the first higher high on the weekly since dec 2017.

(03-08-2019 12:40 PM)Pinocchio Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 03:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Here's my current thinking of three possible scenarios that would definitionally (at least in my definition) get us out of this current bear market and into a bull market.

1) BTC price rises above $6k and stays there for at least two months

2) BTC price rises above $4.5k and stays there for at least six months

3) BTC price does not break below $3,320 for at least one year

If we can break and hold 4200 i'm considering that as a trend reversal - that will be the first higher high on the weekly since dec 2017.

Yes. Each of us is going to have differing definitional price points, and that is why I attempted to describe both BTC price and time elements to my assessment of what it would take for me to conceptually transform out of considering this a bear market.

For me, the bearmarket label merely grants that within the "trend is your friend" ideas about BTC price movements, the odds for the BTC price going down are greater than the odds for the price to move up. Once conceptually we transform into a bull market, then the odds change, at least in my way of framing the matter.

So accordingly, I personally believe that we need more than a mere breaking of resistance at $4,200 in order to change the current bear market status and the trend. In other words, in my thinking merely breaking above $4,200 might be good short term price performance, but it is not enough to remove any kind of reasonable fear that the $3,122 bottom is NOT yet in.

I could have also listed a scenario in which the BTC price breaks below, $3,320, but since the BTC price is currently above that amount, I don't feel any need to describe such a hypothetical scenario, at this time.

Also, of course, personally, out of the three scenarios that I did list, I would prefer the quickest way out of this, which is scenario 1, but currently, for me, the odds of that scenario happening any time soon, seem quite low.

I am not sure if this below-linked article is saying anything different than other bitcoin articles in terms of bitcoin serving as a kind of longer term investment.

Largely, I am posting it as a timely update.... and maybe as a kind of seeming optimism that the bottom could, perhaps, be in? a BIG PERHAPS.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/08/no-bi...hing-4000/

Here's an interesting tweet list of a few of bitcoin's recent "non-innovations" hahahahahaha Interesting discussion in the tweet responses, too.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1104379821864439808

https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

(03-06-2019 09:07 AM)redbeard Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:33 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  

(03-05-2019 10:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-05-2019 10:05 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  You know JJG, you don't have to respond with an essay to every single post on this thread

Why do you care? Aren't you interested in ETH and the pie-in-the-sky flippening, anyhow?

I love this thread, it just keeps on providing the best jokes.

I got a special meme ready for the moment Ethereum finally flips Shitcoin. Can't wait.

Not happening.

Love the confidence. And in honor of it, changing my signature

(03-10-2019 09:35 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVqZ0UOMmU[/video]

[https://coinspice.io/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D1BMY9XVYAAvAjz.png[/img]

I did spend 13 minutes of my life watch that obviously disingenuous and seemingly ill-informed and biased youtuber. Sure, he is a good looking guy, so despite his patronizing tone, he is not unpleasant to watch, and he has a decent voice.

Yet, you should take that guy with a BIG ass grain of salt, and pretty much the same criticisms that I raised earlier in various posts in this thread about bitcoin naysayers and lightning network bashers is applicable to his content and various strawman, out of context and calling it too early talking points, and also seeming to want to suggest that if lighting network were to fail, then bitcoin would fail, too.... which is another dumb point that ignores that the use of lightning network is optional and in very early days.. as he wants to inappropriately repeat various exaggerations, even by saying that lightning has been "the solution" since 2015, when it only went on testnet (that went on the live network, in a rogue kind of way against the recommendation of a lot of bitcoin developers) in January 2018.

(03-10-2019 01:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-10-2019 09:35 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  https://coinspice.io/news/btc-lightning-...ince-2015/

BTC Lightning Network Problems 18 Months Away from Being Solved Since 2015

Quote:TL;DR: Newer folks to bitcoin core (BTC) can be excused for being a little confused. What’s this Lightning Network (LN) solution so in the news, so hyped? That Jack guy, head of Twitter, is all for it, so LN can’t be too bad. And when they do even a modest amount of investigation, LN turns out to be not quite ready. Lots of things in technology over promise and under deliver, of course, but what those new to the space might not realize is how Lightning has been the new-new thing for BTC since 2015. A new video by Collin Enstad puts it all in perspective.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVqZ0UOMmU[/video]

[https://coinspice.io/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D1BMY9XVYAAvAjz.png[/img]

I did spend 13 minutes of my life watch that obviously disingenuous and seemingly ill-informed and biased youtuber. Sure, he is a good looking guy, so despite his patronizing tone, he is not unpleasant to watch, and he has a decent voice.

Yet, you should take that guy with a BIG ass grain of salt, and pretty much the same criticisms that I raised earlier in various posts in this thread about bitcoin naysayers and lightning network bashers is applicable to his content and various strawman, out of context and calling it too early talking points, and also seeming to want to suggest that if lighting network were to fail, then bitcoin would fail, too.... which is another dumb point that ignores that the use of lightning network is optional and in very early days.. as he wants to inappropriately repeat various exaggerations, even by saying that lightning has been "the solution" since 2015, when it only went on testnet (that went on the live network, in a rogue kind of way against the recommendation of a lot of bitcoin developers) in January 2018.

By the way, a website that shows an ongoing growth in various aspects of the lightning network seems to negate almost every single point of the dumbass's (aka Collin Enstad) lightning network and bitcoin naysaying video.

https://1ml.com/statistics

The growth in lightning network is regular and ongoing and seems to be building relatively fast on a fairly steady basis.. with some growth spurts, here and there, and currently shows 7,2091 lightning nodes, 34,297 channels and a total capacity of 774.2 BTC.

By the way, in my earlier response, I forgot to mention at least one additional dumb and seemingly ill-informed talking point that Collin Enstad mentioned in the end of his video to show how out of touch he is, which was that bcash represents the original satoshi vision to transact. blah blah blah... and I had already responded to the nonsense of such talking point in my earlier responsive posts in this thread.

One last point, his reference to Jack Dorsey also seems to be attempting to spin a positive into a negative. Of course, the Jack Dorsey embrace of bitcoin and lightning is great for attempting to expand bitcoin adoption through twitter and square, while at the same time showing that Dorsey is taking a decent risk in his attempts to experiment and innovate on a system (namely the lightning network) that is far from user-friendly - yet it has already been shown in such early twitter stages of attempting to incorporate lighting network that a decent number of twitter users are trying to use the interface... very bullish, overall, even if very early in levels of adoption.

In just a short period of time (three months according to the tweet) tipping_me has experienced a decent amount of lightning network sign-ups and application installations, yet I believe that the twitter incorporation of tipping_me lightning network is a lot younger.. maybe only a few weeks since tipping_me was added as an option in twitter (early days... early days).

https://twitter.com/kerooke/status/1102669700872384512

A nearly 10 day old tweet from PlanB stating why BTC "will not" drop below $2k.

Believable? That's another question.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/statu...44289?s=21

>>>>>>>>>planB
‏......
Why #bitcoin will not drop under $2k:
1) Miners already capitulated (difficulty -25% Nov/Dec)
2) Too close to the Halving (14 months)
3) BTC never dropped below geometric mean ($2750)
4) BTC never dropped below 50% of stock-to-flow model ($5500)
5) RSI bottomed at (42) now rising<<<<<<<<<

I believe some guys here (at least I do.... hahahahaha) appreciate Tom Lee's bitcoin bullish analysis, and here is a link to a recent interview with him.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/another-...m-lee.html

Broken the wall of 1000 BTC capacity on LN

https://1ml.com/statistics

(03-16-2019 04:22 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  Broken the wall of 1000 BTC capacity on LN

https://1ml.com/statistics

I think that a lot of BTC HODLers appreciate that LN network capacity is growing and seeming to show a kind of power.

However, we should continue to be skeptical of possibilities that LN is going to be attacked, and there is some concern about abilities to protect LN from attacks in which growth of nodes and channels are not organic but instead a kind of astroturf... that could be used to attack or just to cause worse user experiences on the LN network.

A series of tweets and responses from hodlenaut describes the issue. He says: "20 of the 21 biggest capacity nodes on LN are run by LNBIG/LNOneYear" which seems to be one or two players currently controlling about 600 BTC worth of the LN network nodes... and might NOT be good to route through them or just to attempt to write them off as if they are not contributing in an honest kind of way to the LN network.

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/110...1482798081

Regarding our recent visit to $4k, I will concede that $4k is not any kind of done deal, which means that we are going to have to revisit $4k again at some time in the near future (hopefully). Hopefully, before Tuesday or so, but it is understandable that the road up to, even sub $5k BTCs, could take a decent amount of time to play out.

I don't want to engage in scapegoatism logic, but I still believe that it is reasonable to blame shitcoins for a continued inability for bitcoin to go up until moar of the froth is purged from those various shitcoin twats.

If you take a current snapshot of the past week of BTC's price appreciation, as compared to many shitcoins, during that time, many of those shitcoins are price appreciating more than 5% while bitcoin only price appreciated 1% or so.... and some of them had price appreciation numbers in the 15% arena.

With shitcoin arrogance like that, it seems to me that they gotta be beaten up a whole hell of a lot more in order that they are a bit more humble bumbles - instead of having some kind of false presumptions that they are leading price, when they are not.

Bitcoin remains the dog.. not those arrogant pump-filled imitators.

So, yeah, maybe bitcoin's price is ONLY at these continued decently high levels of about 3x from three years ago, because of some of the symbiotic price backs and forths from shit coins and ICOs - including money coming into the space through pump and dump scams and shitty imitations, and it seems to me that an ongoing purging out of that crap is going to make it much more difficult to transition into a BTC bull market.

I remain as anxious as any other BTC HODLers to transition the fuck out of this current BTC bear market, but have to concede that it could take some more time to get out of here..

Anyhow, largely I stick with the assertion of my earlier post regarding 3 scenarios to get out of our current ongoing bear market.

i think we're going to trade sideways for 3-6 months, i'm betting on the 'bottom being in' already and doing a lot of accumulation of btc at these prices. I think it's good for bitcoin to have some life coming back into alts. - shows confidence is slowly returning to market.

Here's a nice little Venn diagram overlap showing several areas upon which bitcoin touches.

Here's a nice tweet of a chart that compares time-frames based on BTC price, 200 day MA and Mayer multiple.

Of course, when making these kinds of overlay of charts comparisons, they need to be taken with a decently-sized grain of salt since there is no certainty that the future will play out like the past.

https://twitter.com/chartsbtc/status/110...39904?s=21

Here's another nice little tweet of a visual.

Three years of green. One year of red. Three years of green. One year of red. What comes next? Time will tell.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/110...1774813184

Here's an interesting article from today, suggesting that this bear market is over price could go to $400k in this cycle. Your milage may vary.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-pounds...00-analyst

100k would already be peaking for next cycle imo. My plan is to sell 50% at 10-12k, 25% at 20k, 12.5% at 40k and remainder at 80k. This way I don't walk away rekt.

The more difficult question is how to minimise taxes by off shoring and repatriating the money with high levels of privacy.

(03-19-2019 11:20 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  100k would already be peaking for next cycle imo. My plan is to sell 50% at 10-12k, 25% at 20k, 12.5% at 40k and remainder at 80k. This way I don't walk away rekt.

The more difficult question is how to minimise taxes by off shoring and repatriating the money with high levels of privacy.

I am suspecting (as in the past), selling BTC within a range of its previous ATH is a kind of deadzone (referring to your intended $20k selling point), meaning either you sell 20% below it, considering that it may not reach the previous ATH ever again or you sell 30% or higher above it, considering that once it reaches such previous ATH a kind of additional FOMO is likely to kick in.

Of course, each guy is going to arrive at differing selling price points, including myself with a lot smaller sells, much more incrementalism and likely ongoing HODLing of a decent amount of my BTC stash.. .. depending on how BIG the next upswing becomes or if it reaches a kind of blow-off top.

Regarding moving value around that is outside of bitcoin, that seems to be getting into a bit of a different topic. One of the reasons that I got into bitcoin in the first place is to be able to take advantage of the utility to be able to access bitcoin from anywhere.... so if you put bitcoin value into dollars then you likely lose some of that flexible mobility, but you gain on the exit from bitcoin downside volatility risk, and of course putting the value into some other crypto might incur even more volatility risk but there could be some that allow you temporary transport of value. Of course some of the various "stable" coins are evolving, but they do not seem to allow you as much privacy flexibility as you seem to be seeking, but it might be good to consider what liquidations are going to be available to you and your location at those various price points.

You are getting to one of the issues why some BTC HODLers are reluctant to sell BTC at certain high price points, because they have to figure out which exchange or other liquidation avenue to place it, and then whether they will be able to get the money.. some exchanges are easier than others, in that regard.... but they sometimes get bogged down with craziness during price peaking periods.