(03-07-2019 03:04 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  I dunno, Weiss's ratings felt pretty gimmicky to me. Maybe I'm just sour on them because they published the first of them right before the end of the boom, so they came out and said things like "Cardano is a B+!" right before Cardano got hit with something like a 90% drawdown.

How well have Weiss's ratings correlated to returns over the past year and three months? Did higher rated cryptos have less losses?

Weiss' disclaimer is that their model is optimized for long term viability of any specific Crypto Project with disdain for ETH type Token Projects as money grabs - and not optimized for Trading Purposes so more a Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis like Hyperwave which by comparison are hardcore Bitcoin Core maximalists who have complete disdain for all Alt Coins - useful to understand both sides of the Crypto spectrum.

Interesting that Weiss rates EOS and Cardano Technologies greater than Ethereum though ETH has greater usage and adoption currently.

(03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Of course the Omniscient JJG a confirmed crypto fanatic and self determined Guru deigns to condescend to those who discuss facts as "Bitcoin Bashing" especially key technical analysis questions like 1. Where have we come from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?

I suppose it is one thing if you are just putting out reports of others, or if you are attempting to engage with the bitcoin topic and to make some of your own analysis about the topic based on current facts and logic and attempting to assign reasonable likelihoods to the future.. if we are talking about likelihood of success or price or whatever.

I have never proclaimed to know the future price direction of bitcoin, especially the short term, and at most I am sometimes will assign 60/40 probabilities .. and that is when I rarely feel strongly.. and more often I am assigning in the arena of 50/50 probabilities to short term price directions while preparing for either price direction.

Perhaps, I am more critical of other posters who are making more certain probability assignments of short term predictions, and I am also presumptive that long term betting on bitcoin is likely going to pay off, even if you make some mistakes so long as you engage in dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.

Of course guys are responsible for themselves, but that is what I believe to be a decently sound strategy including not investing more than you can afford to lose or gambling too much with your investment. A fairly conservative approach in my opinion.

So, even though i have some preferences about what is good or bad or misleading information, I post a lot about bitcoin, and I can be discerning of positions of others, I doubt that I am proclaiming to be a bitcoin or crypto guru, even though you are making that label.

So in that regard, I don't tend to focus on non-bitcoin developments, except to the extent that they sometimes overlap with what is going on in bitcoin and therefore, I learn about various cryptos through that kind of incidental exposure rather than trying to decipher exactly the level of shit or pump and dump of the various non bitcoin projects, and thus my main focus has continued to have been bitcoin, so "crypto" fanatic seems quite misplacing of a label especially since I am fairly irritated by lumping bitcoin with cryptos.. as you should have noticed over my many posts.

(03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  What I like about Weiss is they avoid the Crypto Fanboy FUD/FOMO pump and dump hype.

It is not a matter of whether you are a bitcoin or crypto fanboy, but whether you understand how bitcoin is different from crypto generally... even though they both have technological aspects. In other words, getting caught up on the technology seems to misplace the understanding of what is valuable about bitcoin.

If you are attempting to make a lump categorization as bitcoin and crypto based on mere technology, then perhaps you don't understand the sound money aspect of bitcoin and/or various network effects that differentiates bitcoin from the others.. as the dog wagging the tail.. instead of getting too focused on the tail.

In my earlier post from today in regard to the Weiss group Facebook coin assessment, I may have been too early to praise a recognition of that ability of you or the Weiss ratings group to distinguish bitcoin from crypto.

(03-07-2019 03:22 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Weiss' disclaimer is that their model is optimized for long term viability of any specific Crypto Project with disdain for ETH type Token Projects as money grabs - and not optimized for Trading Purposes so more a Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis like Hyperwave which by comparison are hardcore Bitcoin Core maximalists who have complete disdain for all Alt Coins - useful to understand both sides of the Crypto spectrum.

I do think I remember reading that. It's interesting reading, but in a sentiment based market like crypto I'm not entirely sure how valuable those ratings would be. ETH is having a lot of issues with its technology upgrades, and the ice age is hitting, so I'm not surprised they give it a lower rating.

Thanks for the VPVR link. It's cool to look at, particularly because it shows a huge VPVR spike right where we're at now. I wonder if that's an artifact of the fact that we've been ranging in this area for a while, or if that was there before.

I got two interesting takeaways from that chart, firstly, that the VPVR indicates that support at 3000 may not be as significant as I expected. 3000$ was psychologically a huge number for me, just because of the time when I got into bitcoin (When I was first starting there were "Will bitcoin break 3k" articles everywhere) so I assumed it would function as an extremely strong support point. VPVR indicates this may not be the case, and thinking back, 10,000$ was an even more significant number psychologically, but it provided no significant support at all!

I would say that before we think about the sub-1000$ VPVR points, the more important one would be in the 2200-2700$ area, which you pointed out in your link. There's a long way to fall before even 860$ is in play.

EDIT: God it feels so nice to just talk TA with somebody who's using the indicators properly, who isn't making crazy, goofy predictions, and is just saying what they think in a calm, level manner. It feels like it's been FOREVER.

(03-07-2019 03:37 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Of course the Omniscient JJG a confirmed crypto fanatic and self determined Guru deigns to condescend to those who discuss facts as "Bitcoin Bashing" especially key technical analysis questions like 1. Where have we come from? Where are we now? Where are we going to?

I suppose it is one thing if you are just putting out reports of others, or if you are attempting to engage with the bitcoin topic and to make some of your own analysis about the topic based on current facts and logic and attempting to assign reasonable likelihoods to the future.. if we are talking about likelihood of success or price or whatever.

I have never proclaimed to know the future price direction of bitcoin, especially the short term, and at most I am sometimes will assign 60/40 probabilities .. and that is when I rarely feel strongly.. and more often I am assigning in the arena of 50/50 probabilities to short term price directions while preparing for either price direction.

Perhaps, I am more critical of other posters who are making more certain probability assignments of short term predictions, and I am also presumptive that long term betting on bitcoin is likely going to pay off, even if you make some mistakes so long as you engage in dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.

Of course guys are responsible for themselves, but that is what I believe to be a decently sound strategy including not investing more than you can afford to lose or gambling too much with your investment. A fairly conservative approach in my opinion.

So, even though i have some preferences about what is good or bad or misleading information, I post a lot about bitcoin, and I can be discerning of positions of others, I doubt that I am proclaiming to be a bitcoin or crypto guru, even though you are making that label.

So in that regard, I don't tend to focus on non-bitcoin developments, except to the extent that they sometimes overlap with what is going on in bitcoin and therefore, I learn about various cryptos through that kind of incidental exposure rather than trying to decipher exactly the level of shit or pump and dump of the various non bitcoin projects, and thus my main focus has continued to have been bitcoin, so "crypto" fanatic seems quite misplacing of a label especially since I am fairly irritated by lumping bitcoin with cryptos.. as you should have noticed over my many posts.

(03-07-2019 02:48 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  What I like about Weiss is they avoid the Crypto Fanboy FUD/FOMO pump and dump hype.

It is not a matter of whether you are a bitcoin or crypto fanboy, but whether you understand how bitcoin is different from crypto generally... even though they both have technological aspects. In other words, getting caught up on the technology seems to misplace the understanding of what is valuable about bitcoin.

If you are attempting to make a lump categorization as bitcoin and crypto based on mere technology, then perhaps you don't understand the sound money aspect of bitcoin and/or various network effects that differentiates bitcoin from the others.. as the dog wagging the tail.. instead of getting too focused on the tail.

In my earlier post from today in regard to the Weiss group Facebook coin assessment, I may have been too early to praise a recognition of that ability of you or the Weiss ratings group to distinguish bitcoin from crypto.

LOL - JJG Again displays his acute condescension to RVFers sharing useful information and his command of How to win friends and influence people NOT...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-I...0671027034

OBTW as pertains to the Hyperwave Team if you sit through a bunch of their VLOGs on YT etc you will discover they are predicting some spectacular future values for BTC as Bitcoin Maximalists - they are fond of the Book The Bitcoin Standard.

Takeaway after BTC Phase 7 completes at the $1K target the next BTC Bull Run will dwarf the 2017 bull run for a number of reasons. Per Hyperwave at $1K BTC if you acquire a handful you will be relatively wealthy in a 5 to 10 year timeframe of course with caveats.

I will let you do your own research and come back to discuss the possible long scenarios...

(03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  3000$ was psychologically a huge number for me, just because of the time when I got into bitcoin (When I was first starting there were "Will bitcoin break 3k" articles everywhere) so I assumed it would function as an extremely strong support point.

I think that in 2015/2016 there were a lot of folks considering $3k and above to be a kind of blow off top. I had frequently considered $3k to $5k to be a rough ball park high end of the blow off top. Surely, there was a lot of surprise getting above the $10k resistance.. which seemed to be extreme scenarios, but also a kind of going through that $10k price arena like butter.

(03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  I would say that before we think about the sub-1000$ VPVR points, the more important one would be in the 2200-2700$ area, which you pointed out in your link.

There may be some truth to the $2,200 to $2,700 price arena as a kind of sticking point, and that was an area of floating support during the discussion about the impact (perhaps negative) of the August 2017 forking... and whether that period was going to be bearish or bullish (ended up being bullish and around $2,600 was the BTC price jumping off point for that part of the 2017 bull run that ended up in the steepest part of the exponential price growth for that possible "blow off top" from abut $2,600-ish to $19,666.

(03-07-2019 03:46 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  There's a long way to fall before even 860$ is in play.

That seems like real pie in the sky to be hoping or expecting any kind of price point like that.

(03-07-2019 03:54 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  LOL - JJG Again displays his acute condescension to RVFers sharing useful information and his command of How to win friends and influence people NOT...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-I...0671027034

It's condescending for me to attempt to outline on the cuff how I approach the bitcoin topic?

Or you think that it is condescending for me to assert that no guy should be relying too much on expert analysis in articles or those of financial institutions without also providing some of his own insight and analysis on the topic?

Anyhow, I have not been trying to be condescending in recent posts, so you may be reading too much into what I had meant to say or that I was attempting to achieve.

By the way, aren't you acting condescending when you are suggesting that I need to read a book about winning over friends?

(03-07-2019 04:11 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Takeaway after BTC Phase 7 completes at the $1K target the next BTC Bull Run will dwarf the 2017 bull run for a number of reasons. Per Hyperwave at $1K BTC if you acquire a handful you will be relatively wealthy in a 5 to 10 year timeframe of course with caveats.

Your level of rich might not be much different if you pick up a decent amount of BTC at current prices, either.

Of course, it is not a bad thing to prepare for BTC prices to go down, just in case, but any guy should also be preparing for UP, too, and if the down prices do not happen, and even if BTC prices don't go below $3,122 (the current low), then there could be a significant risk that some guys may end up buying much higher because they got too greedy and they were neither prepared for either price direction and they were attempting to maximize their down buying price (likely too much of a gamble, even if you are describing it as a near certainty coming from supposed experts).

We saw a lot of supposed BTC experts in previous UP waves too, that were waiting to buy at lower prices, and completely missed out or ended up buying way too high because they were not prepared for either UP or the possibility that down would not be as great as they expected.

Quote:That seems like real pie in the sky to be hoping or expecting any kind of price point like that.

Well, possibly. I would want to see a much bigger price drop before I started considering it as a serious possibility.

That said, when I read this I got curious about the idea of 860$ being a potential retracement of the entire 2017 advance, so I decided to look up what the price was on January 1st, 2017. (I had a decent idea, of course, but I couldn't remember the exact number.) Lead me to this hilarious article on Coindesk which I think is worth a read for some perspective.

Quote:Jan 1, 2017 at 21:04 UTC Updated Jan 3, 2017 at 11:13 UTC

The price of bitcoin inched upward over the course of trading today, passing $1,000 for the first time on CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index since early January 2014.

Though the price (at press time) was still shy of a three-year high of $1,023 set in January of that year, the milestone nonetheless marks a bright beginning to 2017 for the digital currency. (Bitcoin appreciated by more than 100% in 2016).

The price had reached as high as $999 earlier in the day only to fall back to the $960s, a pattern that was similarly observed over the last week of trading as bitcoin failed to build momentum toward $1,000.

The increase notably took place during what was a day of lower-than-average trading volume, 7-day exchange data from Bitcoinity reveals.

As asserted by analysts, 2017 is expected to be a banner year, one that could finally lead the price to pass its all-time high of $1,216.7 set in 2013.

Aah man, if I could live 2017 over again I would be sailing the Mediterranean in a yacht made of supermodels and cocaine. What a time to be alive that was.

A metric showing how much people are willing to pay to use bitcoin can be a much stronger indicator of long term fundamentals than what some financial think tank might consider relevant. There are a lot of metrics, so sometimes it can be difficult to put too much weight on any given one, even though I like this data showing how much fees were paid to BTC miners from 2010 to 2018.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1096764890721804288

JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

(03-07-2019 06:48 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

Soon. Tm

Bitcoin is going to really hurt credit card companies. These companies make about 3% on each transaction, for example that is all visa does, it isn't a bank it is just a processor. Merchants are in the business of making money, and that 3% cuts into the bottom line significantly. If they can use bitcoin and lightning network and get that down to less than a 1%, that is a huge incentive to pivot. Most people already have a smart phone, merchants could justify spending money on bitcoin terminals when they know they will get the investment back and not have to deal with cc companies anymore.

I see this happening in 2-5 years. There is just too much financial incentive for merchants to resist. They took a while to upgrade to EMV because if not they would be liable for breaches. There was no profit motive and hence it was a slow transition. Bitcoin transition will be quicker. One big merchant jumps in the market, others will follow so they are no left behind.

There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

(03-07-2019 08:07 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

Absolutely. But they will be solved, just like the internet solved technical hurdles to get to where it is today. There is just too much incentive to ignore. It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when. China never adopted credit cards, they went straight from cash to digital payments.

Everyone gets tied up to daily price speculation, so I'm instead adding some original content. Not only are banks about to be disrupted, cc companies are too. The glory days are over. Humanity has figured out a better solution.

(03-07-2019 08:09 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:07 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  There's a lot of technical hurdles, not just adoption hurdles, that would have to be overcome for this to happen.

Absolutely. But they will be solved, just like the internet solved technical hurdles to get to where it is today. There is just too much incentive to ignore. It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when. China never adopted credit cards, they went straight from cash to digital payments.

There may be significant changes and even competition options in your 2-5 year timeline, but I cannot see credit card companies getting displaced in that amount of time absent some really BIG adoption and even user-friendliness. Even in the past about 5 years between the 2013 BTC price bubble and the latest 2017 price bubble, both adoption and development around bitcoin has not even brought BTC adoption to more than 1% world wide.....

There could be several doublings of bitcoin adoption and creation of use cases with user friendliness, and maybe even then bitcoin would still only have less than 5% adoption, so there is going to be room for CC for a while, probably longer than 10 years - even though I agree with your overall premise that bitcoin is going to end up dominating and gaining market share with the passage of time, but it is likely going to take a decent amount of time to really displace the incumbents or causing them to focus on BTC exclusively, if that is what ends up happening.

Visa and Mastercard enable people to buy stuff on credit, I remember being 20 years old, applying for a credit card online and the next thing you know I get a credit card in the mail with a 10k limit a week later. It's not like you can start a crypto wallet and receive thousands or tens of thousands worth of credit.

I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

(03-07-2019 08:31 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  Visa and Mastercard enable people to buy stuff on credit, I remember being 20 years old, applying for a credit card online and the next thing you know I get a credit card in the mail with a 10k limit a week later. It's not like you can start a crypto wallet and receive thousands or tens of thousands worth of credit.

You don't say lol.

Edit - technically Visa and MasterCard are just payment processors. The issuing and acquiring banks allow people to buy stuff on credit.

(03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

(03-07-2019 08:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

Yeah I am just adding my 2 cents to my pickup homies. I am not trying to fear monger but fiat currencies in general are not in good shape after the 10+ years of Quantitive Easing after the 2008 crisis. This is also bullish for bitcoin though.

(03-07-2019 08:44 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:32 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  I didn't say credit cards were going to be totally replaced in 2-5 years. I said they would be really hurt. For credit cards to fully die, I think more old people have to die first. We will absolutely be able to shop at a growing number of merchants with bitcoin and LN in 2-5 years.

Thanks for the clarification, Swordfish, that's part of the reason we might do some back and forth, and you would not expect guys to agree on all the details, anyhow..... especially when we get into speculations about how some of the adoption will evolve.

So, surely we agree could agree on some parts, including that there are slightly different use cases for BTC and credit cards, and also, there could be some alts that might better get into some of those areas than bitcoin... Surely, cannot be clear at this point, and we are not going to have banked people in the west and those with a lot of access to credit thinking about bitcoin in the same kind of ways as someone who is not banked and does not have access to credit in other parts of the world..

Also, there can be some devaluation of money or even transferring value international that might not be as obvious to someone who lives in a place that does not have as noticeable fiat devaluations such as those occurring in some other places such as Venezuela or Zimbabwe or other places where governments have been having inabilities getting their currency to maintain any kind of semblance of steady rather than decreasing value.

Yeah I am just adding my 2 cents to my pickup homies. I am not trying to fear monger but fiat currencies in general are not in good shape after the 10+ years of Quantitive Easing after the 2008 crisis. This is also bullish for bitcoin though.

Sometimes I criticize goldbugs for predicting the downfall of fiat for the past 40 years, and surely there is some correctness in their claims that fiat manipulates the fuck out of system - and that is why we refer to fiat in that kind of way.

NOT that you are making the goldbug claim of impending doom in the form of an Armageddon, and I don't even believe there is a need for such a scenario to play out for bitcoin to increase in dominance and really become more and more central in terms of either becoming a kind of world currency (which also could take 50 years or more to play out) or just serving a role in which it keeps a variety of traditional financial incumbent systems more honest in terms of it is going to be a lot more difficult for them to get away with certain kinds of shenanigans if the employment of such tactics merely causes the masses to increasingly flow out of their systems and into bitcoin (which seems to be a similar thing that you are suggesting as an evolutionary outcome).

In other words, it seems to be a great idea to know about bitcoin and to develop systems in order to take at least some kind of stake into it - because with the passage of time, not only will we learn from our attempts at participation in bitcoin, we are likely going to profit quite well from just having some money invested in that direction while normies are still confused about either what bitcoin is or how to actually get involved and take some kind of a stake in it.

(03-07-2019 06:55 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 06:48 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  JJG when are we hitting 4k? I'm tired of this hovering around 3700-3900.

Soon. Tm

Revisiting this point.

In the past few months, we have had several attempts at testing whether we are going to be able to break above resistance at $4,200, and I am surely looking forwards to breaking higher than $4,200, even though at the same time there is likely going to be one or two additional resistance points above $4,500 and in the sub-$5k arena.

One scenario that might bring us out of the bear market would be to break into $6k arena and to stay there, and another scenario would be to be able to stay between $4,500 and sub $6k for more than 6 months, and it seems that either case would be a sign that we might be out of our current bear market.

Until then, we are within decently reasonable striking distance of the current low of $3,122, which seems to be some of the hyperwave and other bear theorists wet dream support breaking point that may or may not happen. I am still giving the breaking below $3,122 a slightly higher than 50% chance .. perhaps in the 52% arena, currently.. and that is merely a kind of shot in the dark guess.

I doubt that we could argue that staying in the $3,200 to $4,200 price range would be bullish, unless, perhaps, if we stay here longer than a year, then maybe we could start to assert that even this range of $3,700-$3,900 that you complain of, Sidney Crosby, would start to muster up a kind of new bullish significance.

Was looking through my old photos and found this from December 2017 -£13.6k day lol

upload