(03-19-2019 11:20 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  100k would already be peaking for next cycle imo. My plan is to sell 50% at 10-12k, 25% at 20k, 12.5% at 40k and remainder at 80k. This way I don't walk away rekt.

The more difficult question is how to minimise taxes by off shoring and repatriating the money with high levels of privacy.

Just hodl. You will regret selling.

My view is that if you want to make an investment with an overview to sell, it is probably better to bet some cash on a good altcoin (let's try not to be maximalist - there are some good "crypto companies" like for example Vechain which can make money in the future like the companies listed on the Dow Jones).
I see bitcoin as a store of value to keep in order to hedge against national capital controls, falling currencies and central banks printing money out of thin air.

Here's a nice little gains/losses view of bitcoin's price history.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/110...1031837697

(03-19-2019 11:20 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  100k would already be peaking for next cycle imo. My plan is to sell 50% at 10-12k, 25% at 20k, 12.5% at 40k and remainder at 80k. This way I don't walk away rekt.

The more difficult question is how to minimise taxes by off shoring and repatriating the money with high levels of privacy.

Historically winning strategy for the patient is waiting to get within 90% of the previous ATH before beginning the selling, sell slow on the climb, and buy back on the decline when the 90% of previous ATH has be crossed in the other way on the swing.

Below is a link to a today announcement of an interesting new lighting network feature that allows flexibility for payments to be received within lightning network within a framework that the developers are calling loop in. Apparently, the developers are working on adding sending feature in the future which will be called loop out.

https://blog.lightning.engineering/posts.../loop.html

(03-20-2019 06:27 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  My view is that if you want to make an investment with an overview to sell, it is probably better to bet some cash on a good altcoin (let's try not to be maximalist - there are some good "crypto companies" like for example Vechain which can make money in the future like the companies listed on the Dow Jones).
I see bitcoin as a store of value to keep in order to hedge against national capital controls, falling currencies and central banks printing money out of thin air.

This sounds like a great idea in theory but the problems are:

-How do you determine what's a "good" "crypto company" (watch The China Hustle)
-VeChain's "success" will not reflect in its token price because tokens are not equity
-Correlation is so damn high that if altcoins succeed, so will bitcoin
-Alts present higher risk due to centralization around the team, possible exchange de-listing, and securities clampdown

That's why it's smarter to INVEST in Bitcoin and Bitcoin only. If you have a higher risk appetite, then margin Bitcoin positions can expose you to as much risk as altcoins without the negatives listed above.

"Altcoins are essentially leveraged BTC positions."

If you know what you're doing and depend on technical analysis (not nonsensical "fundamentals") yes, you can make more money holding alts in a bull market, but only if you sell.

This animation of top 10 countries with the highest levels of currency inflation (devaluation) over the past 23 years from 1996 to 2018 is an amazing visual that makes Venezuela's situation look particularly egregious, but it still can give some perspective that currency inflation can be a real enduring problem for the people of various countries.

https://twitter.com/vxschmid/status/1108397519174807553

Here's another nice development of Jack Dorsey putting money where his mouth is by planning to hire 3-4 open source bitcoin developers...

Great move.. and should be helpful for bitcoin.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/payment-s...in-bitcoin

Do people believe that Jack Dorsey is only buying 10k worth of BTC per week?

The guy has a few billion, why buy such an insignificant amount?

(03-21-2019 12:35 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  Do people believe that Jack Dorsey is only buying 10k worth of BTC per week?

The guy has a few billion, why buy such an insignificant amount?

That's the most you can buy on the Cash app.

(03-21-2019 12:35 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  Do people believe that Jack Dorsey is only buying 10k worth of BTC per week?

The guy has a few billion, why buy such an insignificant amount?

Dorsey seems legit and self-made, so anyone who already has a few billion dollars, as you say is not going to be in any rush to get rich. He does not really seem that materialistic, but instead just does what he likes an pursues passions, including having curiosities about technical geek problems.

In that regard, he definitely has more than $10k per week available that he could put in, so it is quite mysterious whether he has any incentives in that direction. He seems to be playing some slow and methodical, including hiring the 3-4 open sources developers and perhaps going to see where that goes, too.

Overall his ongoing increasing involvement in various aspects of bitcoin seems relevant, helpful and bullish for bitcoin.

(03-21-2019 02:03 PM)AznMarkZuckerberg Wrote:  That's the most you can buy on the Cash app.

So, yeah, of course, if he wants, he could buy more through other avenues if he wanted, and I suppose he could consider whether they want to change the weekly limitations. I recall my Gemini account was $500 per day for a few years, and then about a year ago, it went up to $2,500 per day (and that is weekdays only, so it ends up $12,500 per week), and for some reason the monthly limit is $70k, and the wire transfer does not have any limits. In the end, there are probably both some concerns about licensing issues, and then also concerns about reporting requirements that might kick in. He also admitted to concerns about people who might be using the platform for illegal purposes, but may have been largely giving lip service to that, too, knowing that in the end, there are going to be some oversight issues, and higher amounts cause more potential issues for the platform as a whole - in terms of regulatory burdens.

I guess I really enjoy sharing nice looking charts - like the one below.

The below one shows an expanding time-frame with lower price peaks projected out until about 2023, which is in the range of a bit more than 2x BTC price increase by the time of the May 2020 halvening and then about another 10x from there that takes about 2.5 years to play out to bring BTC's price into the $90k arena.

https://twitter.com/Pladizow/status/1108855283424657410



I doubt that bitcoin has been tamed that much, so in that regard, I expect a bit more of an explosiveness, even though the underlying price projections of the tweet are very reasonable, and quite easy to read, too.

On the other hand, no HODLer should be complaining about 20x returns in their bitcoin investment in the next about 4 years, if such levels of returns were to play out, and I am not going to complain, even if we end up getting ONLY 2x returns or even 50% returns in that time-frame - because I continue to attempt to keep my expectations relatively low, even while considering some of the more exorbitant projections are within reasonable probabilities of taking place.

Here's an interesting article that describes bitcoin's dominance in terms of various ways of looking at trade volume rather than mere coin market cap.

https://medium.com/@jpthor/bitcoins-mark...693ff604bf

I'd agree that buying BTC is SAFEST but that means looking towards a potential 10-15x that won't change people's lives. You can only leverage one position at a time at bitmex and you miss out on a bunch of alt pumps.

I'd rather have 60% BTC and the rest in 4-8 different top 30 alts and have my sell orders punched in at 2x, 3x, 4x. I think doing this is much easier and more profitable than trying to swing trade, margin trade, or DCA even at these prices. The only downside is that you might be holding dead money for a year.

Below is a link to a nice little article from a few days ago that refers to an underlying research paper (linked within the article).

The research paper asserts that bitcoin is spreading parabolically like a virus, towards $1million per BTC.

Great stuffs!!!!!

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoin...bolic-why/

So will you buy stuff with your hopefully hundreds of millions of dollars or will you keep holding?

Below is linked a nice article referring to some upcoming privacy expectations in bitcoin - some of which are closer than others to becoming reality.

https://decryptmedia.com/6049/decrypt-gu...of-bitcoin

(03-23-2019 04:49 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  So will you buy stuff with your hopefully hundreds of millions of dollars or will you keep holding?

I presume that you are referring to me?

In essence, financially, I am doing o.k. whether bitcoin succeeds further or not, and I don't play BIG with my buy sells.. and instead I continue to exercise a kind of incrementalism. The last bullrun to $19,666 taught me that I don't really need to play around with attempting to make BIG sales on the way up in order to prosper tremendously.

Of course, some guys here might want to second guess my strategy and assert that I could have been much more rich to sell more BTC on the way up and then buy back at or near the bottom.

Yes, there is some truth that I could have been richer, yet I remain happy with my current and ongoing strategy.... that involves selling about 1% of my stash for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.. and then using proceeds from those sales to buy back... to the extent that I chose to buy back.. and I can play around with those buy back increments, too.

So, if the next exponential BTC price rise (assuming that one is coming) happens quickly or slowly, those differences in dynamics could cause me to tweak my strategy - yet I am thinking that it is probably better to just stay with some variation of what I hav already been doing... which ultimately involves keeping a lot of value in BTC and just letting the correction periods play out without really making large moves.

I am thinking that in the coming years, I might begin a net 1% cashing out per quarter (which is 4% per year)...... which would result in a kind of tweaking of my current plan (I consider my current to be a kind of net zero plan - which means that I am largely keeping any dollars that were cashed out from BTC within my BTC fund to buy back with)... Adding the 1% per quarter cashing out will give me more cash to spend, and such addition to my plan would not be dependent on then BTC price (except maybe just considering what part of the quarter (or year) to cash out that additional portion 1% or 4% respectively.

I am thinking that within about the next year and a half or so, I will be in a much better place to consider the extent to which I want to add on an additional 4% per annum cashing out to my current existing BTC approach.

How about you? How are you planning around these kinds of future BTC price possibilities?

(03-23-2019 04:47 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Below is a link to a nice little article from a few days ago that refers to an underlying research paper (linked within the article).

The research paper asserts that bitcoin is spreading parabolically like a virus, towards $1million per BTC.

Great stuffs!!!!!

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoin...bolic-why/

JJG don't post clickbait articles like that.

Bitcoin obviously isn't spreading parabolically like a virus. Transaction volume has been down the past week. December 2017 was the peak of Bitcoin's transaction volume and that was a while ago.

(03-23-2019 05:42 PM)zoom Wrote:  

(03-23-2019 04:47 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Below is a link to a nice little article from a few days ago that refers to an underlying research paper (linked within the article).

The research paper asserts that bitcoin is spreading parabolically like a virus, towards $1million per BTC.

Great stuffs!!!!!

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoin...bolic-why/

JJG don't post clickbait articles like that.

Bitcoin obviously isn't spreading parabolically like a virus. Transaction volume has been down the past week. December 2017 was the peak of Bitcoin's transaction volume and that was a while ago.

Yes.. we have differing definitions regarding what is parabolic spreading, and I understand that you want to assume some kind of demise of bitcoin, because you still seem to be buying into the various altcoin and bcash narratives that want to continue to suggest that bitcoin is dead or deficient or defective, when it is not.

Yes, those seem to be the ongoing frameworks that you would like to presume to be true - and too bad that you still have not recognized that the bcash camp is largely an ongoing shame that is attempting to astroturf their way into a narrative that allows continued pumping of their coin (bags).

Sorry for your loss, but your suggestion that I am providing click bait is far from being founded, even if you disagree with the assessments (or conclusions) of such linked articles that I try to provide here for guys that may appreciate their content (even while no one has to agree with the various conclusions of articles that I post here, including myself - even if I do attempt to point out some of the more outrageous claims that are being made in various articles to which I post links).


By the way, look at the more conservative claims of this guy's blog post about bitcoin from about 4 days ago.

http://thepatternsite.com/Blog-Mar19.html#P19

Largely, he is asserting that there are decent odds that it could take 6 years for BTC to reach its previous ATH (of $19,666)

Personally, I don't really have any problem with a kind of slow volatility and climb up of BTC to new ATH in 6 years or more, which would be about 500% increase in prices from our current price point ($4k)..

Accordingly, giving the guy the benefit of the doubt of being financially smart, a central problem with a kind of gradual rise in BTC price scenario that he paints (with perhaps some acceptance of ongoing volatility), and gradual return to new ATH in 6 years seems to be that the whole set-up (framework) implies that bitcoin is within a mature market - and that assumption is way off, since bitcoin is far from being with a mature market (especially given its current low level of adoption and a shitload of use cases that have barely been scratched on the surface) - causing the assumptions of the blog poster to fail (perhaps refuse) to recognize, account for and understand the asset (bitcoin) about which he is attempting to "reasonably" analyze.

Trying to acquire more BTC by buying alts that can hopefully 5-15x against BTC.

It depends on how much I can acquire, let's say I had 10 BTC and we were near the ATH, I'd have a hard time selling seeing as that would "only" be around 200k USD. If I had 100 BTC and sold near the ATH that would buy me a nice house in Canada (1st tier city), if BTC reached 100k and I sold 100 BTC then I could in theory retire and live comfortably for the rest of my life.

It's too hard to say now, it's easy to plan things but then greed takes over.

(03-23-2019 06:16 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  Trying to acquire more BTC by buying alts that can hopefully 5-15x against BTC.

It depends on how much I can acquire, let's say I had 10 BTC and we were near the ATH, I'd have a hard time selling seeing as that would "only" be around 200k USD. If I had 100 BTC and sold near the ATH that would buy me a nice house in Canada (1st tier city), if BTC reached 100k and I sold 100 BTC then I could in theory retire and live comfortably for the rest of my life.

It's too hard to say now, it's easy to plan things but then greed takes over.

I don't think that it is hard to plan things. I do think that it is good to be willing to learn and flexible enough in your plan that you can tweak your plan here and there as needed along the way.

I have been planning and tweaking my BTC related plan for the past more than 5 years, and such an approach has been working quite well. Furthermore, it is not as if I came to bitcoin without any experiences regarding attempting to build investments in other areas as well (pre-bitcoin) and creating strategies that are workable and realistic.

Over the years, I have learned to be very conservative with my approach, which has largely involved dollar cost averaging and constantly building the amount in my investment nestegg, and the same was true when I first started making investments in various kinds of assets more than 30 years ago (even though the amount of capital was seemingly piddley in the beginning, and it can take years and years to build up capital.

I have learned about dollar cost averaging and living within my means for that whole time, including tweaking and including not gambling with very much of my total portfolio which strategies have also worked quite well with bitcoin.

So initially, when I started in bitcoin, I allocated about 10% of my total investment portfolio into bitcoin, which I had considered the most risky part of my whole portfolio... In that regard, I considered myself as risking no more than 10% of my total quasi-liquid assets investment on bitcoin. Once bitcoin became more profitable (built up it's own equity cushion), then it became possible for me to be more flexible within some of those funds to play around a bit more. to the extent that I felt comfortable (and of course continuing to tweak plans here and there without feeling as if I am risking too much or gambling very much).

Accordingly, on a personal level I would never have considered it to be a prudent strategy to attempt to accumulate more BTC by investing in something else - including alt coins - unless that was less than 10% of my BTC funds, and maybe if I was feeling more risk seeking (which I have never felt that way with bitcoin), then I might go up to 30% with such a strategy of allocating towards other coins... but hey, that is my approach to these kinds of financial matters an my long term way of considering my approach in very conservative ways.

I am thinking that I am not sure how well you are going to do when you buy alts as compared with bitcoin, and since this is a bitcoin thread, it is probably not a good idea to devolve down that road very much.. because that is your choice, too.

Personally, I have found that HODLing and accumulating BTC has been a very good strategy, including dollar cost averaging strategies, buying on dips and selling very small amounts on the way up, and I believe that my overall approach of trying to stay mostly focused on bitcoin is going to continue to be a good strategy for a decent amount of time into the future, even if this crypto winter could last a few more years, which is surely within the realm of possible.

Of course, no investment is guaranteed, so each of us does need to figure out what kind of strategy is comfortable for himself in terms of cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin, risk tolerance, timeline and skills.

(03-23-2019 06:16 PM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  It depends on how much I can acquire, let's say I had 10 BTC and we were near the ATH, I'd have a hard time selling seeing as that would "only" be around 200k USD. If I had 100 BTC and sold near the ATH that would buy me a nice house in Canada (1st tier city), if BTC reached 100k and I sold 100 BTC then I could in theory retire and live comfortably for the rest of my life.

Saw a lot of people with similar logic to this in the 2017 bull run (like a guy I knew who made 100 grand off a 3k investment and refused to sell it).

All those people are very sad now.

Don't be like them.

Take your damn profits and thank God for the opportunities you've been given. Don't scoff at "only" 200k. That's more than enough money to change your life irrevocably for the better.

Below is linked an article from about 10 days ago, that has a one hour video presentation therein.

https://hackernoon.com/why-bitcoin-matters-c8bf733b9fad

There is a nice internet comparison in there, and overall is NOT a high level presentation... that attempts to describe what is good/sound money in terms of "why bitcoin matters?"

The below article seems to be an actual bitcoin bullish article by Forbes...

Usually mainstream media gets their little bitcoin digs in, here and there, and for some strange reason, this article seems to be o.k. with describing bitcoin as the only real and true decentralized option.. kind of over doing it because surely bitcoin's use as a daily payment mechanism is way far into the future as compared with our current credit cards and apple payment mechanisms.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/201...968c7f4b8f