(05-15-2018 04:23 PM)Praetor Lupus Wrote:  The BBC is reporting that North Korea has 'abruptly' cancelled talks with the South and warned the USA about the future of the Trump-Kim summit. This is apparently due to the usual US-South Korean joint military exercises taking place.

I'm not one to worry about upsetting belligerent regimes, but Christ, with this much progress on the table, couldn't they have given the war games a rest for once?

Nope, I say business as usual. Kim and his regime is used to playing these games. Pretend to be nice, get some concessions and then back to doing what he was doing.

Rinse and repeat.

We really don't know if he is serious or just playing the same games. No reason to stop doing what we are doing until Kim shows he is serious.

(04-30-2018 12:58 PM)TravelerKai Wrote:  Inside China yes. They have treated their own people like shit for centuries like a generational curse. Show me an example of cracking skulls outside China. They could very well box someone out financially somehow.

Until someone can show me real proof of physical aggression of the modern Chinese state against non-Chinese. I refuse to buy notions of foreign conquesting on any level without some semblance of proof and notions based on what other cultures and peoples like to do. It's almost as if culture and history does not exist nor does it influence foreign policy.

Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Korea, the Philippines, Myanmar, Russia, etc.?

Even if we ignore the proxy wars, the border wars, the many Chinese-backed insurgencies, the drug trafficking, the arms dealing, etc., there is the issue of China building military installations on the sovereign territory of multiple countries and seeking to control international waters in the present day.

Of course, when someone like Duterte speaks out against this, the Maoist insurgents in the Philippines coincidentally choose to break their ceasefire with the government and intensify fighting. At least China graciously offered to fund rehab centers to help with the drug epidemic fueled by Chinese nationals.

Much of the Chinese diaspora's economic dominance in Southeast Asia was built through their role in trading with Islamic pirates/slavers, then war profiteering and arms dealing, then drug trafficking. You cannot avoid this fact when reading through the history of any of their neighbors.

When you have John Bolton with one hand on the wheel.....

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/05/nor...mands.html

Quote:North Korea was already ready to negotiate. It were not the sanctions that brought it to the table. It was its new status as a nuclear power. The Trump administration never understood that. It believed that its "maximum pressure" campaign brought North Korea to offer "complete denuclearization". North Korea used that wording but it was meant as an aspirational aim for the whole world, not a unilateral disarmament of its new capabilities.

The Trump administration did not get it - or did not want to get it. This was partly out of stupidity and lack of knowledge, it was partly mischievous:

Trump and others are presenting this process as a route that leads to North Korea’s disarmament — even though Kim has said nothing that deviates from statements that every North Korean leader has made. And in our collective self-delusion, we have a surprising cheerleader: national security advisor John Bolton.
It is worth asking why Bolton is busy giving interviews in which he raises hopes for a complete elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons that can occur in a matter of months. He has repeatedly called for a “Libya style” deal — one in which the United States simply shows up and collects the weapons and supporting infrastructure.
...
This is madness. There is no reason to think that Kim has any intention of agreeing to such a thing.
...
Bolton isn’t suddenly naive. He’s working an angle. And that angle is almost certainly misaligning the president’s expectations. Bolton won’t try to kill diplomacy by opposing it. Rather he’ll kill it by making the perfect the enemy of the good. By raising the prospects of a Libya-style surrender, the much more modest settlement offered by Kim looks sad by comparison.

This is a very cynical — and dangerous — game that Bolton and others are playing.

All part and parcel of Trump's gamble: using the neocons and Israelis as a shield to protect him from the Deep State. Some eggs will be broken along the way by such thuggish bodyguards, but it's Trump's strategy to make it to 8 years.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/no...bt/9767042

Doesn't really look like Trump has a negotiation tone to dismantling North Korea. It's more of a demanding tone, I wonder how this will turn out for an egocentric guy like Kim. If Trump really does meet with Kim it'll be one of the most interesting events this lifetime.

Worthwhile viewing - Grand Solar Minimum-induced crop losses and potential army walk-out are likely the key factors in North Korea's willingness to denuke, receive aid, and prevent a massive humanitarian crisis there and in neighboring countries (like China and South Korea).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLjNX4pd8p8&app=desktop

Interesting how Trump handled the perception of "rejection". Now North Korea has to have the summit on June 12 to save face.

As long as he understands its effectively 2 countries negotiating as one (China and North Korea)......I am impressed with the cancellation letter and its timing. High risk, high reward.

(05-27-2018 09:29 AM)ivansirko Wrote:  Interesting how Trump handled the perception of "rejection". Now North Korea has to have the summit on June 12 to save face.

As long as he understands its effectively 2 countries negotiating as one (China and North Korea)......I am impressed with the cancellation letter and its timing. High risk, high reward.

Definitely following this story to see it's developments.

I also currently at SEAsia and considering if I should go to Singapore at June 10 just to see what up, up close.

As far as I am aware, the 2 past leaders of the DPRK (Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il), very rarely went anywhere by airplane while they were in power and mostly limited their foreign travels to train trips to China and Russia.

In my opinion, it's very unlikley that Kim Jong-un will get on an airplane to Singapore or fly anywhere else for that matter. Even Kim's right hand man Kim Yong Chol who recenty went to on a visit to the USA and met Trump, traveled there on a Air China airplane rather than a DPRK (Air Koryo ?) airliner.

Kim may however consider a trip to Switzerland. The country where he went to school as a child for several years.
Also, neutral Switzerland would be a much better venue for a peace summit.
In theory Kim could get there by train as well...though it would take him 3 or 4 days of non-stop travelling from the Korean peninsula.

Mongolia is also a "neutral" option for a summit.

I'd be very surprised if Kim actually really does go to Singapore by airplane.

How did he get to Switzerland as a kid? By train?

(06-01-2018 02:09 PM)Mercenary Wrote:  As far as I am aware, the 2 past leaders of the DPRK (Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il), very rarely went anywhere by airplane while they were in power and mostly limited their foreign travels to train trips to China and Russia.

In my opinion, it's very unlikley that Kim Jong-un will get on an airplane to Singapore or fly anywhere else for that matter. Even Kim's right hand man Kim Yong Chol who recenty went to on a visit to the USA and met Trump, traveled there on a Air China airplane rather than a DPRK (Air Koryo ?) airliner.

Kim may however consider a trip to Switzerland. The country where he went to school as a child for several years.
Also, neutral Switzerland would be a much better venue for a peace summit.
In theory Kim could get there by train as well...though it would take him 3 or 4 days of non-stop travelling from the Korean peninsula.

Mongolia is also a "neutral" option for a summit.

I'd be very surprised if Kim actually really does go to Singapore by airplane.

I doubt this would be sticking factor. He can train it most of the way there. Even if he has to take a boat from Ho Chi Minh to Bangkok or even directly to Singapore, its not a difficult mission. His entourage is likely significant, so even a charter plane is cheap when this is taken into account.

Over the last week or so, three important KPA officials were fired and replaced them with people that seem closer to KJU.

I wouldnt be surprised if the KPA has been fattened up by all those years of son'gun, and is afraid of losing its budget in the event of denuclearization. They may well have pulled strings with the people in charge of foreign policy, who made the outburst that prompted Trump to cancel the summit earlier. But it's likely that KJU brought things back under control and Trump let the meeting be scheduled as normal.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/signs-suggest...24877.html

http://www.nkleadershipwatch.org/2018/05...al-bureau/

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/...head-trump

Looks like Kim actually got on the airplane and has arrived in Singapore using Air China .






His motorcade convoy in Singapore







Kim meeting the prime minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong:

What a masterstroke if he got hit and NK was invaded at the same time.

... Tiger pattern glasses?

They don't make evil dictators like they used to! SAD!

(06-10-2018 06:58 PM)LEMONed IScream Wrote:  ... Tiger pattern glasses?

They don't make evil dictators like they used to! SAD!

Excuse me, those are tortoiseshell, preferred by only the most discerning dictators.

Kim takes a night tour of the city and gets cheered on like a celebrity at Marina Bay Sands Hotel in Singapore












Takes some selfies with the Singapore foreign minister too

That's because they all know Kim is the true alpha.

Is there a re-cap available yet of what transpired at the meeting?

Well there we have it. Heads at CNN are spinning faster than their drediels trying to figure out a new narrative.

Trump and Kim Jong Un meet and shake hands







Sitting together

This may be one of the most interesting political events to have happened in decades. There will be a lot to tear apart and analyze for decades to come.

My instinct is that this is three steps forward, but will be followed by two steps back. East Asians love to try to outmaneuver others. Kim's goal here is not a mutually beneficial global balance -- his goal is to steadily increase his power and his negotiatinbg position.

His weak spot is that his country is fucked and without strengthening his economy, he doesn't stand a good chance at improving his negotiating position. Having 100,000 half starved troops and a fledgling nuclear program is the best he can do.

So the goal here is definitely to use other countries to give himself more money to play with and then use that as a resource to do an end run around all his enemies.

(06-11-2018 02:10 PM)Mercenary Wrote: