That's a bit of a hyperbole there, GS, non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes, it wouldn't be "catastrophic". Chances are the network would cover a local failure, as there is a lot of redundancy built into the grid, especially with much of it being powered by inherently unreliable intermittent "green" sources nowadays.

Major civilian infrastructure installations are extremely vulnerable to insider sabotage, the smallest well-placed metaphorical grain of sand can bring a whole machinery to a grinding halt. In a country where operators are paid peanuts due to rampant inflation, it would be very easy to buy insider saboteurs, especially some that might not be fond of Chavistas.

Given that the Bolton-Abrams bunch is hell bent on crippling the Venezuelan economy, it would be really naive to assume that the power grid wouldn't be a prime target.

It hardly matters.

If some asshole threatens to fuck me up and two days later a rock comes through my front window then I'm not going to give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe it was just some neighborhood kids. That's why it's not wise to make threats lightly. After you make a threat then you're on the hook for every bad thing that the person you threatened happens to suffer.

Even if the US didn't cause the power outage then it's going to be on them regardless.

(03-13-2019 12:27 AM)911 Wrote:  That's a bit of a hyperbole there, GS, non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes, it wouldn't be "catastrophic". Chances are the network would cover a local failure, as there is a lot of redundancy built into the grid, especially with much of it being powered by inherently unreliable intermittent "green" sources nowadays.

Major civilian infrastructure installations are extremely vulnerable to insider sabotage, the smallest well-placed metaphorical grain of sand can bring a whole machinery to a grinding halt. In a country where operators are paid peanuts due to rampant inflation, it would be very easy to buy insider saboteurs, especially some that might not be fond of Chavistas.

I agree with most of your post (and posts, actually) quoted above, 911. But I suspect (no offense meant) that your knowledge of Latin America is not as great as your (impressive) knowledge of France, Canada and the USA (and I guess, Russia?).

Because you said that, in Venezuela, "non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes". This is Latin America (and not a very functional part of it) mon ami, so you should have said, within hours, or within a couple of days if the failure is anything serious.

I mean, a "non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant", in Latin America, unresolved after say 48 hours, is not that shocking or implausible. Now, if the failure is still unresolved after more than 2 days, yes, one might suspect that foul-play could be involved.

But even if it was sabotage, who did it? A disgruntled employee at the powerplant (a dude with serious grudge and vast technical knowledge, as I don't reckon it'd be simple to cripple a huge powerplant)? Member(s) of the opposition to Maduro, acting on their own will? Foreign saboteurs on the ground? Some more-or-less independent ex-military Israeli hacker based in Cartagena (a hotbed for such colorful characters)? Foreign, State-employed computer scientists? Impossible to know.

And the truth will never be known for sure, as, whether it's poor maintenance or sabotage, the people responsible would face serious penal action at some point, so, everybody involved will deny and hide their tracks. So it shall remain a mystery, I think, this power-plant outage. Like the Vegas shooting, which I personally suspect is somehow linked to a previous attack on a power-plant.

Anyway, my analysis remains the same as earlier on the thread:

Maduro very probably cannot survive for long. A complex multi-pronged war is waged against him, on all fronts, by all-mighty actors.

Maduro survives for now because he gets help from clever intelligence officers from a third-country (not Russia, not China, not Iran, think of a sunny island I've just visited, and the chicas send their greetings ), and because he knows that like Allende (or Saddam or Milosevic), he has no real option to flee anywhere, but, at some point he will get strangled economically, or -if he offers a casus belli- terminated by a missile or some.

So, it's almost a done deal, for Maduro. His, say, weeks (days? months?) are counted.

Now, I'm more interested in what it will mean for the third-country island, already alluded to by mister Guaido, who's just threatened to cut its oil lifeline.

And if you're American "and don't care about Venezuela", well, all the same you should turn your attention to this matter now, as a total economic collapse of the island facing Florida coasts, would bring complex problems to American shores. Complex as in ten millions of "refugees" in one month.

So, well, personally I'm not following closely anymore the Venezuelan mess, as its conclusion is almost obvious, but I will follow with interest what happens with the oil lifeline to the third-party island.

Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Going Strong are some of those ((Israeli)) dudes on the Caribbean coast of Colombia ((Mossad)) spy types? I thought ((they)) were just there doing hard drugs and sex trafficking underage chicas. https://www.timesofisrael.com/14-israeli...-colombia/

(03-13-2019 10:12 AM)Going strong Wrote:  Anyway, my analysis remains the same as earlier on the thread:

Maduro very probably cannot survive for long. A complex multi-pronged war is waged against him, on all fronts, by all-mighty actors.

Maduro survives for now because he gets help from clever intelligence officers from a third-country (not Russia, not China, not Iran, think of a sunny island I've just visited, and the chicas send their greetings ), and because he knows that like Allende (or Saddam or Milosevic), he has no real option to flee anywhere, but, at some point he will get strangled economically, or -if he offers a casus belli- terminated by a missile or some.

So, it's almost a done deal, for Maduro. His, say, weeks (days? months?) are counted.

Now, I'm more interested in what it will mean for the third-country island, already alluded to by mister Guaido, who's just threatened to cut its oil lifeline.

And if you're American "and don't care about Venezuela", well, all the same you should turn your attention to this matter now, as a total economic collapse of the island facing Florida coasts, would bring complex problems to American shores. Complex as in ten millions of "refugees" in one month.

So, well, personally I'm not following closely anymore the Venezuelan mess, as its conclusion is almost obvious, but I will follow with interest what happens with the oil lifeline to the third-party island.

Well, China's stepping up to fix the damned dam. With Russia that's two US Security Council veto powers blocking an active "regime change" action from claiming "international community."

The effects of the Chinese language and culture make the meaning behind their actions difficult to discern for Western folk, but propping up Maduro against the US and EU is going to impress a lot of governments that don't want to give in to the US/EU "rules based international order." China, Russia, and Turkey are out there engaging in diplomacy and making friends with other countries by letting them be their own countries. This is in contrast to Washington, Brussels, and London trying to make other countries eat their entire rulebook if they want to deal.

Maduro's a somewhat dumb everyman bus driver caught in an unfortunate situation where he's stuck with responsibility beyond his ability. For everyone except the US regime change crew and the neighbors who don't want the flood of people leaving to continue, the present struggle is about far more than Maduro and Venezuela. It's about Russia, China, and Turkey telling the US and EU to stop the world police schtick, you're address your own decline.

(03-13-2019 11:11 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Hygiene is a thing. That many people choose to be unwashed is unfortunate. That many people who would recoil at the idea of putting a toilet in their kitchen fail to recognize similar situations in the field of technology is unfortunate as well.

(03-13-2019 01:05 PM)scotian Wrote:  Going Strong are some of those ((Israeli)) dudes on the Caribbean coast of Colombia ((Mossad)) spy types? I thought ((they)) were just there doing hard drugs and sex trafficking underage chicas. https://www.timesofisrael.com/14-israeli...-colombia/

Hola hermano Scotian, and well, as a man interested in Colombia, I am aware of the Hotel Benjamin - Mosh huge sex scandal. From what I heard though, the main suspects were Israeli low-ranking ex-soldiers, not ex-Mossad per se.

Matter of fact, I hope that Israel will extradite, or severely prosecute in Israel, the main ring leader, Mosh. Meanwhile, I think that (most) Colombians who allowed themselves to be bought and corrupted, were caught and prosecuted in Colombia. Sad story anyway, all this! Personally I don't go to Cartagena or Taganga, too much fuckery over there...

(03-13-2019 01:36 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Maduro's a somewhat dumb everyman bus driver caught in an unfortunate situation where he's stuck with responsibility beyond his ability.

As time passes by and Maduro (against all odds) survives, one has to reluctantly reckon that the fat bus-driver is not so dumb. Or say, the people who taught him his trade on the sunny third-party island, have done quite a good job: Maduro has some brain on him, it seems, after all, and he knows the basis of survival and ruthlessness.

Anyway, the more time passes, the more it seems to me that this is a battle to the end, a battle that the US especially cannot afford to lose and therefore won't lose.

I mean, if Maduro falls, China or Russia or Iran will be a bit upset, but no big deal, life goes on. But, if Maduro wins, the USA will have received such a huge blow, that, I am quite sure that President Trump cannot and will not allow such a defeat to materialize.

For me, it is now a battle that has Maduro and the whole US government locked, with the survivor winning re-election, and the loser losing face and power forever... That is why I think that, if Maduro survives the economic strangulation, he will get terminated somehow (drone, missile from a warship, whatever, Guaido at some point will quite-legally ask for, and be granted, a military intervention).

4-d chess anyway, if ever there was, is at play in or around Venezuela. I personally think that President Trump is playing 4d here: maybe letting China and to a lesser extent Russia entangle themselves into this mess, so that they'd look bad when the US terminates Maduro. Might be why Vladimir Vladimirovich is sensing and avoiding the trap, so, well, if I were the Chinese I would steer clear of the impending disaster.

I totally agree with the following, by the way:

Quote:Leonard D Neubache Wrote:

Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Quote:BBinger:

That many people who would recoil at the idea of putting a toilet in their kitchen fail to recognize similar situations in the field of technology is unfortunate as well.

Are there any detailed reports available on the nature of the damage the power plant sustained? That would help to settle the question of whether the damage was caused by sabotage or negligence.

Chinese gov. power brokers are not "making friends". Their diplomacy is an infrastructure building for ownership type deals. They learned quite a bit from the British but they certainly wont be foolish enough to relinquish those infrastructures after the 99 year lease. China will make european colonialists look decent and moral after they have had their way. After all its taken them much more investment and hard work to achieve it in the modern political arena so they wont take it for granted to be in the ownership role of international economies.

And the american elite are looking to do the same. No matter what the hell happened to the dam or the sanctions whatever. The bottom line is that venezuelans are far too weak of a populace and a government to properly utilize the resources of the country and its only natural that the superpowers get involved to take their shit. The strong prey on the weak its nothing new, no different than the schoolyard bullies. Just as americans are too weak of consumerism drugs and mindless entertainment to correct the problems facing our nation.

It is worth what it's worth. But a well placed source at the Portuguese MFA has told me that something major MIGHT, MIGHT, happen this very weekend regarding the Venezuelan predicament. Might be military related, and it's obviously connected to the power grid...

(03-13-2019 12:37 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  It hardly matters.

If some asshole threatens to fuck me up and two days later a rock comes through my front window then I'm not going to give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe it was just some neighborhood kids. That's why it's not wise to make threats lightly. After you make a threat then you're on the hook for every bad thing that the person you threatened happens to suffer.

Even if the US didn't cause the power outage then it's going to be on them regardless.

The US would have much better optics. If the politicians simply kept their mouth shut about Venezuela.

By the way, to answer Leonard's and BBinger's legitimate questions:

If indeed the power-plant was sabotaged through a computer virus, I would think that said virus was implanted directly from within the control room of the power-plant. By an employee or an intruder having or gaining access to a local (intranet) computer. Please don't tell me that massive power-plants actually have their control software connected to the internet?

Please tell me it was not done by one of those:


...but by one of these:

I like to imagine that cyber-security is given considerable thought when critical infrastructure is built, not just in beleaguered nations but in first world nations like America and Australia.

But I've worked for the government before, and long enough to know that everyone with functioning brain and moral compass was pensioned out no later than ten years ago.

(03-13-2019 06:08 PM)scorpion Wrote:  Are there any detailed reports available on the nature of the damage the power plant sustained? That would help to settle the question of whether the damage was caused by sabotage or negligence.

You have a detailed report written (the 13th of March) by the technical branch of the main university of Venezuela, the "facultad de Ingenieria de la UCV". This report points to a "lack of maintenance and faulty transmission system of the 765kV", whatever that might mean. Also possible, a faulty "turbine in the Guri plant" and note that this Guri (female, no doubt) dam seems troublesome indeed: http://elestimulo.com/elinteres/embalse-...e-colapso/

By the way, one might want to read the article 187 (numeral 11: 11. Autorizar el empleo de misiones militares venezolanas en el exterior o extranjeras en el país) of the Venezuelan constitution... J. Guaido certainly has read it, and now openly refers to it.

Interestingly, some people from the third-party sunny island had advocated against the inclusion of the numeral 11, as they rightly understood that it might allow for sending sunny-island troops to Venezuela, sure, but also and at some point (and contrarily to the intended original purpose), US troops.



http://constituciondevenezuela.com/articulo-187/

Quick translation: "it corresponds to the national assembly (currently controlled by J. Guaido and his allies), (...) to authorize the use of Venezuelan military missions abroad or the use or foreign military missions in the country"

Thus, no need for any UN security counsel decision.

If you read it you should also find the part where the Vice President is still in power and the random Juan guy is a puppet installed by a country with bigger guns and an urge to use them.

And i have/had a trip booked in 3 weeks. Hopefully, the U.S. gets Maduro out of there now the U.S Embassy in Caracas is out of Venezuela. I've visited Venezuela 5 times in the last year and 1/2 with american airlines.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...01139.html

American Airlines stopped service to Venezuela Friday after the U.S. State Department raised the travel advisory to a Level 4 this week, urging U.S. citizens not to travel to the country.

On Thursday, the pilots’ union for American Airlines told pilots to refuse to fly to the country, which is facing international protests against President Nicolás Maduro and widespread power outages and inflation. American said the halt in service is temporary.

Other U.S. and many foreign carriers have stopped flying to Venezuela as the country’s economic and political situation has deteriorated in recent years. American, the largest airline in the U.S., had been operating two daily flights from Miami International Airport to Caracas and one to Maracaibo.

“American will not operate to countries we don’t consider safe,” the airline said in a statement Friday.

Nearby Haiti, which endured days of deadly protests in February, also has a Level 4 travel warning from the State Department. Travel website Expedia and its subsidiaries blocked travelers from booking flights and hotels in Haiti last month. JetBlue, Air Canada, and Air Transat announced they will reduce service to Haiti through April. American Airlines continues its regular service to Haiti.

The decision to halt service to Venezuela comes as American faces an aircraft shortage after the U.S. government grounded the Boeing Max planes, which AA operates on a number of routes. It continues to cancel several daily flights while the Boeing Max technical issues are being addressed.

The US government continues waging a multi-dimensional war against Venezuela.
A massive power outage occurred again in various parts of the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and nearby localities, eyewitnesses of the incident told Sputnik on Monday.
The blackout is reported mainly by the inhabitants of East Caracas, namely the districts of Altamira, La Urbina, El Cafetal, El Rosal, Los Palos Grandes, and others.
In the municipality of Chacao, where a number of foreign embassies and large hotels are located, power outages were registered on Sunday evening. According to a Sputnik correspondent, as of 10.30 a.m. (14.30 GMT), there was no electricity in this part of the city either inside houses or on the street.

(03-18-2019 03:29 PM)Luvianka Wrote:  The US government continues waging a multi-dimensional war against Venezuela.
A massive power outage occurred again in various parts of the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and nearby localities, eyewitnesses of the incident told Sputnik on Monday.
The blackout is reported mainly by the inhabitants of East Caracas, namely the districts of Altamira, La Urbina, El Cafetal, El Rosal, Los Palos Grandes, and others.
In the municipality of Chacao, where a number of foreign embassies and large hotels are located, power outages were registered on Sunday evening. According to a Sputnik correspondent, as of 10.30 a.m. (14.30 GMT), there was no electricity in this part of the city either inside houses or on the street.

Rolling black outs are pretty common in places where there is constant theft of valuable metals along with the draining of expertise.

A buddy of mine just got back from visiting his family in South Africa. Pretty much all his friends and families are having to figure out how to run a business with blackouts being the new normal.

Its strange that energy is one of the first to cause the realization that there is no future for business and enterprise. A stable grid is 100% necessary in order to be functional.

Maduro thinks he's next North Korea and made a video of his army flexing its muscle in hopes of scaring U.S.

The InternetZ is having fun.

Turn on your speakers:

Russia is moving to stop the American-Colombian-Brazilian invasion of Venezuela being waged to seize its mammoth oll reserves and save the petro-dollar.

Two Russian military planes landed in Venezuela's main airport on Saturday, reportedly carrying dozens of troops and large amounts of equipment.

The planes were sent to "fulfil technical military contracts", Russia's Sputnik news agency reported. Javier Mayorca, a Venezuelan journalist, wrote on Twitter that he saw about 100 troops and 35 tonnes of equipment offloaded from the planes. It comes three months after the two nations held joint military exercises.

Russia has long been an ally of Venezuela, lending the South American nation billions of dollars and backing its oil industry and military. Commanding trrops is General Vasily Tonkoshkurov, Supreme Commander of the Russian Army Land Troops, -he's one of the top guys, so Russia is sending a strong message to Mr MAGA.

Man portable ground to ground and ground to air missiles is a safe bet, to be trucked all over the country, trained with and kept in safe spots.

Russians returning the favor for Americans doing the exact same thing in Afghanistan all those years ago.

Sovie....i mean, Russians sending "military advisors" and equipment to support opresive regimes.....where i already saw this?

(03-26-2019 09:53 AM)Mekorig Wrote:  Sovie....i mean, Russians sending "military advisors" and equipment to support opresive regimes.....where i already saw this?

You probably read about it in the annals of Shit That Isn't Our Problem Quarterly, Volume 63: Who the fuck cares what Russia Does . It's a good mag, lots of great articles.