Quote: elites in the Republican Party

Who are these people? What do they do?

If we start from a baseline of Obama/Romney 2012, if all non-white voters stayed constant, Trump would need about a 5-6 point swing in his favor from white voters to win. This could be whites abandoning the Democrats or it could be people who didn't vote last time turning up this time, or some combination.

Is Trump actually doing worse among Hispanics than Romney? Romney got 27% compared to Obama's 71% in 2012. That poll I posted above shows Clinton winning Hispanics 67-21 with the rest undecided/unsure. So the gap does actually seem a slight bit bigger, but polls now are really unreliable, and the overall trend is pretty much the same. Plus, Trump's campaign really only began a few weeks ago whereas Clinton has been running since what, 1993?

It really seems like we're just starting where we left off in 2012, maybe some groups are swayed a few points this way or that way, but Trump does not really seem to be turning off Hispanics much more than Romney did, or motivating whites more than Romney did. Yet these are still early times.

(08-28-2015 08:21 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Quote: elites in the Republican Party

Who are these people? What do they do?

For instance, in Virginia and North Carolina, Republican party leaders are thinking of changing their rules so that you can't get on the ballot unless you promise not to run as a 3rd party candidate. They're just trying to fuck him with last minute rule changes.

Some state-level polling shows that currently Trump does worse than many other Republicans in matchups against Clinton.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-event...aseID=2271

This is a poll of FL, OH and PA.

Rubio beats Clinton in all 3 states.

Bush wins FL and PA, but loses OH to Clinton.

Trump wins FL but loses PA and OH to Clinton.

In this poll of Virginia, Clinton is close with 4 other Republicans, but beats Trump by more than 10 points:
http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/...opline.pdf

In this poll of Michigan, Trump loses to Clinton, but Bush beats Clinton.
https://lintvwood.files.wordpress.com/20...survey.pdf

Polls this early out are not indicative of much, but the idea that moderates are turned off by Trump gets a slight bit of support from these polls.

The counter-argument is that they use likely-voter models and so only include people in these polls who say they regularly do vote, and that Trump will bring out voters who don't typically vote, and so the polls will underestimate his support.

(08-28-2015 08:27 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 08:21 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Quote: elites in the Republican Party

Who are these people? What do they do?

For instance, in Virginia and North Carolina, Republican party leaders are thinking of changing their rules so that you can't get on the ballot unless you promise not to run as a 3rd party candidate. They're just trying to fuck him with last minute rule changes.

As a native New England guy we were taught not to take peoples views from those states seriously.

As a Florida guy now it's just..


Old schoolers don't worry

(08-28-2015 08:58 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  Right now they're talking calls, asking listeners to give their opinions as to why this is. The general theme seems to be people are fed up with "walking on eggshells" and not being allowed to say this and that -- and Trump is articulating that for people.

...

Trump is offering a change from a norm that has become socially and intellectually claustrophobic to a lot of us. It almost doesn't matter what his policy points are. It's what he represents.

I've been warming up to Trump as of late and I think this post sums it up very well. I will be honest and say at this point I haven't studied in detail what policies he exactly intends to implement if he takes office but count me among the people who like him for "what he represents".

For me how he handled his run in with Ramos when compared to how Sanders handled those Two “Black Lives Matter” protesters was the best illustration of what values Trump represents versus the values that are dominant today in America. Sanders allowed himself to be cuckcolded at his own rally in front of thousands of people that were there specifically to support him. In the one place and time where he was supposed to be untouchable and all-mighty, he let two wildebeests totally hijack it. Whatever you think of Sander's politics, you still have to admit that he was accomplished more in his life then what these two clowns have and ever will. Yet despite the wide gap in ability he was the one that was made to look the fool and have his frame broken despite having an entire army of fawning fans with him. This is a scene that has played out many times in the last few years. How many times have we seen a bunch of neon-color hair tattooed freaks along with their hipster-glasses clad white knight cannon fodder troops be able to shame powerful corporations, companies, A-list celebrities and other high powered entities into doing their biddings? These are people that are so incompetent and fragile in body and mind that they would not be able to survive anywhere in any place or time except in the most prosperous countries in the most prosperous time period in all of human history yet they are able to influence powerful organizations and people into appeasing them.

Look at how Trump handled Ramos. No you aren't going to get any special treatment because of who you are. You go wait in the back of the line like everyone else. Don't like it? Sit the fuck down. Next. How many times have we been wishing that someone, anyone would finally put their foot down and say all of this to all the SJW grevience mongers? One man can't change an entire culture but hopefully having people seeing the way Trump handles all these people and continues to ignore all the constant leftist media shaming of his actions and still win can inspire other people to do the same and we can finally get a big mainstream movement to roll back all the damage that has been done in the last few years. I've been detecting a lot of resentment brewing just from talking to other people in my every day life but as well as seeing comments on the internet. Lots of people, including people outside of our movement feel the same way we do. They just need a catalyst to set them off and the ascent of Trump could be this catalyst.

(08-28-2015 02:50 PM)It_is_my_time Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 02:45 PM)Dusty Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 09:51 AM)storm Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 08:58 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  The more I think about it, the more I think this has validity. Forget policy. Presidents determine the tone of a county. I'm old enough to remember when Reagan got in and styles, movies, and even some music drastically changed to being more conservative.

Can you tell us about that? What styles, which movies, music? I am hoping to get some idea of what to expect.

Red Dawn.
Sylvester Stallone and Arnold movies (eg, Rambo).

I think a good example is say Rambo, the first one, and how you could see the lack of respect towards US soldiers and it seemed a sense of disregard for American pride.

By the time Rambo 3 and Rocky 4 came out, it was all USA! USA! USA! LOL

Television-wise, we went from "jiggle" shows like "Three's Company," "Love Boat" and "Charlie's Angels" to more moralistic family-fare like "Family Ties," "Growing Pains," "The Wonder Years," and "The Cosby Show."

It wasn't as if people were being oppressed into seeing this stuff. This is what they generally wanted. And for a lot of parents (i.e. my parents and neighbors) it was a relief to be able to turn on the TV and not have to worry the kids were gonna see soft-core porn, which is what TV had almost become.

The exception to all this was pop music, which had gotten wilder since MTV premiered in 1981, especially with the emergence of Madonna. But, a moralistic streak surprisingly took hold in response to Reagan, both pro and con. All of a sudden you had songs mentioning the "USA" and "America," which would have been unthinkable a few years before in the disco era -- even when that era coincided with the bicentennial.

None of this is engraved in stone -- just my impressions. I also got trashed online by the SJW crowd for suggesting all this in an article once. So take from that what you will.

(08-28-2015 09:03 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 02:50 PM)It_is_my_time Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 02:45 PM)Dusty Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 09:51 AM)storm Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 08:58 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  The more I think about it, the more I think this has validity. Forget policy. Presidents determine the tone of a county. I'm old enough to remember when Reagan got in and styles, movies, and even some music drastically changed to being more conservative.

Can you tell us about that? What styles, which movies, music? I am hoping to get some idea of what to expect.

Red Dawn.
Sylvester Stallone and Arnold movies (eg, Rambo).

I think a good example is say Rambo, the first one, and how you could see the lack of respect towards US soldiers and it seemed a sense of disregard for American pride.

By the time Rambo 3 and Rocky 4 came out, it was all USA! USA! USA! LOL

Television-wise, we went from "jiggle" shows like "Three's Company," "Love Boat" and "Charlie's Angels" to more moralistic family-fare like "Family Ties," "Growing Pains," "The Wonder Years," and "The Cosby Show."

It wasn't as if people were being oppressed into seeing this stuff. This is what they generally wanted. And for a lot of parents (i.e. my parents and neighbors) it was a relief to be able to turn on the TV and not have to worry the kids were gonna see soft-core porn, which is what TV had almost become.

The exception to all this was pop music, which had gotten wilder since MTV premiered in 1981, especially with the emergence of Madonna. But, a moralistic streak surprisingly took hold in response to Reagan, both pro and con. All of a sudden you had songs mentioning the "USA" and "America," which would have been unthinkable a few years before in the disco era -- even when that era coincided with the bicentennial.

None of this is engraved in stone -- just my impressions. I also got trashed online by the SJW crowd for suggesting all this in an article once. So take from that what you will.

Ha. That's politically neutral, straightforward cultural observation (which I've also seen first hand) and you get trashed for saying it? I don't think there's ever been a more reality-denying bunch of losers than the online SJW crowd. It's always amusing to bring up simple facts (such as black crime rates compared to white) and see them lose their shit.

I feel like a weirdo for having simple powers of memory and observation e.g. I can remember the lies the press was saying at the time of the Iraq war, or what the cultural climate was like in the early 90s. True, you do have to be older to remember this stuff, but most people have no capacity to remember or have any perspective on anything. They live in an eternal, twitchy, electronic-media mediated present. Ripe for exploitation by politicians, corporations and media, unhappy and with poor relationships and connections to the actual physical world.

While I get this little rant on, has there ever been a generation with less connection to physicality and the natural world than today's millennials? The 60s generation at least knew about the smell of woodsmoke, building homes as a communal effort, doing pottery, and acoustic music etc. Textures, smells, doing actual things with your body. Today, life is electronic only for many.

(08-28-2015 08:05 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 07:45 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  How IS trump polling with Hispanics, blacks, and women? I haven't seen any breakdowns of the numbers.
Does anybody know where you can find them?

Well there are many different polls being conducted now, some nationally, some in particular states. Some polling companies will break down results in different ways.

Here is a recent national poll http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-event...aseID=2274



It would be useful in interpreting these numbers to compare them to Romney/Obama last cycle:



The above is from national exit polls after the election. You'll see that the polling numbers now have a lot of "undecided" or "some other candidate" but when it comes down to the election you'd expect that to dissipate.

Really, Trump vs. Clinton does not look too much different from Obama vs. Romney right now.

In other words, if Trump can increase his popularity with Hispanics by 7% he wins, or if he can secure more of a White supermajority to make up the difference he wins.

There's a lot of time between now and the election and things can change quickly. I think Trump will take it.

As for the Blacks, they may enjoy Trump but they simply cannot vote for anyone but democrat. Extremely weird and is something I'll never understand, but these past few elections show the Blacks are more concerned with their own group versus the nationwide well-being.

It is weird when you consider that Blacks oppose illegal immigration more than whites do.

Those sample sizes are smaller than a sjw protest at the roosh world tour.

All those numbers are +-10%
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

(08-28-2015 09:41 PM)storm Wrote:  Those sample sizes are smaller than a sjw protest at the roosh world tour.

All those numbers are +-10%
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

Yes, and polls taken so far out from the general election are meaningless. Regardless the fact that Trump is even close to the 30% Hispanic threshold now is very good for him. He's already got the other demographics locked down.

(08-28-2015 09:34 PM)Eskhander Wrote:  It is weird when you consider that Blacks oppose illegal immigration more than whites do.

It's not unusual at all. Blue collar and poor black communities overlap with hispanic communities and there's often serious conflict between the two. In Southern CA there's the feeling amongst blacks that latinos are racist and displace their communities and use violence to drive them out.

(08-28-2015 10:02 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

(08-28-2015 09:34 PM)Eskhander Wrote:  It is weird when you consider that Blacks oppose illegal immigration more than whites do.

It's not unusual at all. Blue collar and poor black communities overlap with hispanic communities and there's often serious conflict between the two. In Southern CA there's the feeling amongst blacks that latinos are racist and displace their communities and use violence to drive them out.

I mean it is weird that they don't vote Trump when they do oppose immigration.

(08-28-2015 02:12 PM)kaotic Wrote:  Anytime I met a gay latin guy they usually are hanging with some fat latin girl and her friends you won't see him with straight latin males. It's a telling sign. Not to mention lots are religious and catholic.

You hit the nail right on the head. I saw this in Costa Rica.

Sarah Palin interviewed Donald Trump tonight:



One America News Network's website has been down all day due to the high traffic of people flooding it when they learned this interview was taking place.

I've also read that poll Sonsowney posted ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-event...aseID=2274 ) and came to the same conclusion: right now Trump is looking very good, but there are some troubling issues in his polls too. And he wouldn't win the election against Democrats (though in all fairness, not a single Republican would win the election (!!!)).

The thing that I find truly flabbergasting is 91% of black vote going to Democrats. What's wrong with African Americans? I get that they Republican party is stereotyped as "the party of old white men" and is not big on welfare, but what have the Democrats ever done for them to deserve such overwhelming support? What about the Jim Crow laws and opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1960? WHY?

(08-29-2015 02:45 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  I've also read that poll Sonsowney posted ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-event...aseID=2274 ) and came to the same conclusion: right now Trump is looking very good, but there are some troubling issues in his polls too. And he wouldn't win the election against Democrats (though in all fairness, not a single Republican would win the election (!!!)).

The thing that I find truly flabbergasting is 91% of black vote going to Democrats. What's wrong with African Americans? I get that they Republican party is stereotyped as "the party of old white men" and is not big on welfare, but what have the Democrats ever done for them to deserve such overwhelming support? What about the Jim Crow laws and opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1960? WHY?

I've been saying this for a while now. Blacks will never vote Republican. Never!!! You can even have Herman Cain or Ben Carson on the ticket, they will still vote 90%+ for Democrats. But members here had some sort of fantasy that Blacks were some kind of allies against the Latino "hordes" like one poster put it. Face it, the Republican party needs Latinos more than anything right now. Every election cycle the Latino vote is growing more and more in importance and significance. Like Ramos said, "you're going to have to come to me if you want our vote" That's just the unfortunate reality, for the right wing anyway. Riling up as much white votes as possible is a stop-gap measure, not a long term solution because of the changing demographics. But noooo MidWest is always wrong!!!



Yo Samseau! Where you at bro? I'm still waiting for you to respond. Don't be trying to hide now.

(08-29-2015 03:31 AM)MidWest Wrote:  Face it, the Republican party needs Latinos more than anything right now. Every election cycle the Latino vote is growing more and more in importance and significance. Like Ramos said, "you're going to have to come to me if you want our vote" That's just the unfortunate reality, for the right wing anyway. Riling up as much white votes as possible is a stop-gap measure, not a long term solution because of the changing demographics.

That's precisely why we're seeing the Trump vs Repub establishment battle. It's the cuckservatives "hey, let's let the 3rd worlders in and MAYBE one day 40-50% of them might vote for us" vs the populist/growing white consciousness vote.

This is the end game of identity politics. Hispanics, blacks, and other designated groups have their party. When whites start to realise that they better organise too -it's on.

MidWest, however you haven't answered the question I've previously asked:

Is it fair that one person (Jorge Ramos) has the power to bully an entire country?

Reading this thread again made me realize I need a break from this forum. Nothing is ever going to change in this fucked up country, not even if Trump or Roosh or Teddy Roosevelt wins the election.

(08-29-2015 06:00 AM)Sweet Pea Wrote:  Reading this thread again made me realize I need a break from this forum. Nothing is ever going to change in this fucked up country, not even if Trump or Roosh or Teddy Roosevelt wins the election.

Eh, we are closer to a breaking point than you think

I would be concerned with Carson.

Not because he's a terribly great opponent in any objective sense, but because of his skin color. If he rises too high it will be awfully tempting for the GOP to give him the nomination. I mean, just imagine the glowing PR the left wing press will give them...for a week or two.

I know people get my meaning so I won't genuflect with the "not in a racist way" nonsense. It's about moral signaling and the members of this forum recognize that.

Just adding that because I've realized I don't need to qualify myself a whole lot here. Which is great.

Can Donald Trump Be Stopped?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...e-stopped-

^The game plan of the cucks the GOP who want to take Trump down.

Have to say, if this is the best they can come up with, Trump is a lock for the nomination.

(09-15-2015 03:00 PM)kosko Wrote:  Bush Sr was in control of USA intelligence. He is a god in the CIA factions and muscled his way behind the scenes into the VP slot. He held emmense power behind the scenes but had as much charm as a old toothless horse.

He was the maestro of the Regan administration just as much as Cheney moved the needle during the Bush Jr years. When Reagan attempted to pull more power into the Oval Office he was pumped full of bullets. Bush was very much in control during his VP years, don't let happy sunshine Reagan fool you. The man was a master speaker and actor but Bush ran the show.

People like to under estimate the Bush family but they are as close to a mafia family that isn't Italian as you can get. They still own and control vast swaths of strategic holdings in Texas, still have major stakes in ventures, Stoll have all the access to intelligence files, etc. This is why a loser like Jeb can get such a leg up, as he has a war chest of resources others don't.

That seems to me like revisionist conspiracy history. I've studied and read plenty about American foreign policy during the Reagan administration and it was directed from the top. Reagan acting dumb about the Iran-Contra stuff was just that: an act. Futhermore Reagan picked Bush as his VP because he was willing to submit to his authority. Gerald Ford, who was the first choice, wanted to be co-president and was rejected flat out by Reagan. He didn't want anyone who would challenge his authority.

I've seen no evidence Bush Sr. was some puppet-master who pulled Reagan's strings.