I had a momentary panic that the frequent "proportional" primaries would result in Trump not having a majority at the convention and losing due to backroom shenanigans. So I tried to model out the rest of the primary season using relatively conservative predictions:
-Trump gets 33% per state, moving up to 35% after March 8, the only exception being New York (50%+ in every district - more on this later) and Texas (25%)
-Trump would get absolutely none of the unbound delegates
-Trump would not get any of the 3 "RNC" delegates assigned to each state and territory (assuming they're party hacks)
-Where delegates are allocated at the district level on a non-majority top 2 basis, Trump gets 2 per district; at top 3, Trump gets 1 per district (exception: Texas where, again being conservative, Trump only gets 1 out of 3 delegates per district assuming Cruz gets the vote plurality in each district)
So this is all rough and dirty but even with these relatively conservative estimates, Trump still ends up with 1,299 which is more than the 50% + 1 number (1,236)
The real meat of the contest begins March 15; from there and afterwards, these are the crucial states:
-Florida, March 15, winner take all for 96 district and at-large delegates
-Ohio, March 15, winner take all for 63 district and at-large delegates
-Arizona, March 22, winner take all for 55 district and at-large delegates
-New York, April 19, winner take all for 92 district and at-large delegates IF vote is over 50% at state level (and this is Trump's home state)
-California, June 7 (the last day), 53 districts with 3 delegates each and winner-take-all per district; if you win all the districts and the state that's 169 total
The question is whether Trump can win in Florida with Rubio & no Bush in the race (polls are promising?) and if Trump can win over Kasich in Ohio (especially with Rubio holding him back, maybe?)
It could come down to California on the last primary day; the question is, does Cruz drop out at some point if he's consistently 3rd place, or does he stick around in the hopes of using his delegates to buy himself a high-level position in an eventual Rubio administration via a brokered convention? If Cruz dropped out after March 15 it would be a huge relief, I think.
...yeah I need to go to sleep.