(04-23-2017 03:04 PM)nomadbrah Wrote: A democratic puzzle is going to happen here.
How many from Fillon are centrist-right?
How many from Melenchon are old school social-democrats more in line with Le Pen than Macron?
Fillion is socially conservative, Macron is socially liberal.
Not sure it is a sure win for Marcon, but demographics might not be enough. We have to keep in mind that 42% voted for anti-EU candidates. A similar setup as in Belgium and pretty much everywhere in Europe. Elite hanging on by a shred, but with huge opposition and an opposition which very much opposed, not just in name. Europe is mostly in a democratic breakdown. The old method of compromise through the middle is not viable.
It's actually more than that, you get roughly 46,6% if you add the other 3 right wing eurosceptics aka spoilers to that (Dupont-Aignan with 5%, Asselineau with 0,9% and Cheminada with 0,2%). I am also quite certain that a lot of Fillon voters aren't too satisfied with the EU either.
Ultimately some of the observations of the guys in this thread are going to be the biggest lesson to take home from this. Brexit and Trump caught them by surprise. They're adapting.
- Censorship campaigns on social media have intensified and they're trying to figure out new ways to change the flow of information in their favor. The result is that the next round of elections will likely have to be fought on different battlefields.
- The fake news has, correctly, understood that you can't just keep the focus on how bad the other guy or thing is. That still channels attention to Brexit or Trump and thus makes them more important in the mind's eye (read Pre-Suasion). What do you do instead? Channel attention to one bad thing about the other guy (Fillon's "scandal" for instance) but focus the most of it on how awesome your guy is. Then keep him elevated in the airwaves while only bringing up the other guy's bad side if you have to focus on him at all. Astute observers will note that this is essentially the very thing Trump used to dominate the primaries so early (kept all focus on big stuff in relation to himself, only mentioned his opponents by using linguistic kill shots).
This is probably going to be the game in front of us. If I'm right, France is where they field tested it. Learn and adapt.
(04-23-2017 05:20 PM)Libertas Wrote: It doesn't really matter who wins the first round (unless you're betting). Macron getting into the second round is what matters. Now all depends on how the center right Fillon voters will act, but things certainly don't look promising. Though it doesn't matter much in practical terms, it is indeed revealing that it seems he'll eke out a win in the first round. Maybe. That really would say it all, at least in terms of the psychology behind it all.
If I'm wrong in a couple of weeks I'll gladly eat these words. France is finished. It's really amazing that in the face of constant terror attacks, riots, the jungle camps, etc. - in a word - invasion, that they still won't act. They would rather destroy their country than be called racist. I'm not so sure anything quite like this has ever happened before.
But it is what it is. I've been trying to take my focus off politics for the past few weeks and just improve certain skills (persuasive ones, mainly). It is very refreshing, I must admit. Perhaps it's fiddling while Rome burns, but you can't put out the fires by yourself.
Might as well focus your attention (the key thing) on what you can control rather than what you can't. For those in Western Europe, the path forward seems to be make money and get the fuck out. Go to the east, maybe to Britain, or to America where there's still some hope. Fight in places where your odds are better than where they're slim to none.
As hard as it is for me to type these words, I think that we need to finally put to rest the idea that "just one more Islamic terrorist attack" or "just one more migrant rape" is going to be the tipping point that will change everything in our favour. Of all the countries in Europe that had reason to do so, France is the one that should have said "Enough." Clearly, the normalization of Islamic terrorist attacks, migrant rapes, and ultimate national suicide is preferable to a majority of the citizens of France than the prospect of being called - gasp! - a "racist", or even worse - a nationalist.
It seems like people only realize the reality of what will happen once it's too late to affect it. Unfortunately, that seems to be true even with the election of Trump, which - unfortunately - happened as a virtual miracle, flowing from the consequences of the unique structure of the American electoral system. The way the electoral systems are constructed in Western Europe makes the assumption of power by nationalist right-wing populist movements seemingly impossible.
Or, I should say, assumption of power through the democratic process. And I'll just leave it at that.
(04-23-2017 05:20 PM)Libertas Wrote: Might as well focus your attention (the key thing) on what you can control rather than what you can't. For those in Western Europe, the path forward seems to be make money and get the fuck out. Go to the east, maybe to Britain, or to America where there's still some hope. Fight in places where your odds are better than where they're slim to none.
To Britain? The UK has been long gone for awhile, dont let brexit fool you, the south is completely gone. White native britains are a minority in most southern cities like London, Bristol and Birmingham. The country as a whole has 6 muslim mayors (last I checked half a year ago, maybe its more now), there are towns and communities that are almost completely muslim, Savile Town as an example is a 98% muslim suburb that has produced the most home grown terrorists in the UK.
The north is still mostly British but is also being bred out of a majority demographic fast. I still remember seeing schools of kids in Newcastle during my half a year stay there, the demographics seemed heavily indian, pakistani or middle eastern over anything english looking.
Not bad, France. Socialists and other vermin have been taken care of, for now. They are on the run.
Now...I can only hope that Le Pain will take care of the rest on May 7th. Any attack and any unrest from SJW or rapefugees (likelihood of that happening is 90%+, very conservative estimates) will give her more power.
All she need to do is to do high energy speeches, and not fuck up. And that is basically it.
(04-23-2017 05:20 PM)Libertas Wrote: It doesn't really matter who wins the first round (unless you're betting). Macron getting into the second round is what matters. Now all depends on how the center right Fillon voters will act, but things certainly don't look promising. Though it doesn't matter much in practical terms, it is indeed revealing that it seems he'll eke out a win in the first round. Maybe. That really would say it all, at least in terms of the psychology behind it all.
If I'm wrong in a couple of weeks I'll gladly eat these words. France is finished. It's really amazing that in the face of constant terror attacks, riots, the jungle camps, etc. - in a word - invasion, that they still won't act. They would rather destroy their country than be called racist. I'm not so sure anything quite like this has ever happened before.
But it is what it is. I've been trying to take my focus off politics for the past few weeks and just improve certain skills (persuasive ones, mainly). It is very refreshing, I must admit. Perhaps it's fiddling while Rome burns, but you can't put out the fires by yourself.
Might as well focus your attention (the key thing) on what you can control rather than what you can't. For those in Western Europe, the path forward seems to be make money and get the fuck out. Go to the east, maybe to Britain, or to America where there's still some hope. Fight in places where your odds are better than where they're slim to none.
As hard as it is for me to type these words, I think that we need to finally put to rest the idea that "just one more Islamic terrorist attack" or "just one more migrant rape" is going to be the tipping point that will change everything in our favour. Of all the countries in Europe that had reason to do so, France is the one that should have said "Enough." Clearly, the normalization of Islamic terrorist attacks, migrant rapes, and ultimate national suicide is preferable to a majority of the citizens of France than the prospect of being called - gasp! - a "racist", or even worse - a nationalist.
It seems like people only realize the reality of what will happen once it's too late to affect it. Unfortunately, that seems to be true even with the election of Trump, which - unfortunately - happened as a virtual miracle, flowing from the consequences of the unique structure of the American electoral system. The way the electoral systems are constructed in Western Europe makes the assumption of power by nationalist right-wing populist movements seemingly impossible.
Or, I should say, assumption of power through the democratic process. And I'll just leave it at that.
Trump was a very unique character. As I said previously, Le Pen is decent but she is nowhere near Trump's level of persuasive gravitas. That worked against her. Her brand worked against her too because of existing FN stigma.
We also have to admit that the character of the American people is different from Europe as well.
How many of Fillon's supporters will actually vote for Macron? I wonder if there's something similar at play as with Bernie/Clinton - many Bernie Bros voting for Trump despite Bernie endorsing Clinton.
(04-23-2017 06:17 PM)Genghis Khan Wrote: How many of Fillon's supporters will actually vote for Macron? I wonder if there's something similar at play as with Bernie/Clinton - many Bernie Bros voting for Trump despite Bernie endorsing Clinton.
The problem Le Pen has in this regard is that she's actually quite leftist economically - just like UKIP in the UK she has stolen more votes from the establishment left than the establishment right.
To a lot of normie cuckservative voters she is probably too socially unacceptable and economically leftist to vote for her over Macron, who is actually more moderate than her economically.
She could technically shift to the center economically but then she would risk alienating Melenchon voters, who are possibly/probably more inclined to vote for her than Fillon voters.
(04-23-2017 05:48 PM)Libertas Wrote: Ultimately some of the observations of the guys in this thread are going to be the biggest lesson to take home from this. Brexit and Trump caught them by surprise. They're adapting.
- Censorship campaigns on social media have intensified and they're trying to figure out new ways to change the flow of information in their favor. The result is that the next round of elections will likely have to be fought on different battlefields.
- The fake news has, correctly, understood that you can't just keep the focus on how bad the other guy or thing is. That still channels attention to Brexit or Trump and thus makes them more important in the mind's eye (read Pre-Suasion). What do you do instead? Channel attention to one bad thing about the other guy (Fillon's "scandal" for instance) but focus the most of it on how awesome your guy is. Then keep him elevated in the airwaves while only bringing up the other guy's bad side if you have to focus on him at all. Astute observers will note that this is essentially the very thing Trump used to dominate the primaries so early (kept all focus on big stuff in relation to himself, only mentioned his opponents by using linguistic kill shots).
This is probably going to be the game in front of us. If I'm right, France is where they field tested it. Learn and adapt.
I see violence now in the future of both America and Europe, really can't see any other endpoint. France kicks off first. I've heard the Generation Identaire wing of Front National talking about civil war for some time now.
(04-23-2017 06:28 PM)nomadbrah Wrote: I see violence now in the future of both America and Europe, really can't see any other endpoint. France kicks off first. I've heard the Generation Identaire wing of Front National talking about civil war for some time now.
Civil wars only happen when there are two sides willing, forced or being paid to fight it.
(04-23-2017 06:28 PM)nomadbrah Wrote: I see violence now in the future of both America and Europe, really can't see any other endpoint. France kicks off first. I've heard the Generation Identaire wing of Front National talking about civil war for some time now.
The US needs to keep its military in check, its Antifa segment in prisons and its racial tensions under control.
I actually read on youtube that the European Antifa is taking tips from the US version! European Antifa or anyone who hates anybody right of centre are way more vicious, organised and destructive than the US cucks.
Look at videos over the years from Europe and you'll see a very real problem and no patriots to keep them in check.
(04-23-2017 01:30 PM)balybary Wrote: Macron is more exposed now, he can crack under pressure.
Marine Le Pen was always under pressure.
Attack Macron on everything you have.
That is the thing, if you look at the body language from the debate, Le Pen had more dominant body language than all the men in there, this is similar Trump that was put under pressure from the start, Macron had an easy run so he never had to learn how to convey confidence, Le Pen had to turn her party around, had been fighting the MSM for years, therefore she had grown thick skin and become stronger and developed confidence.
Macron don't know how to act under pressure, you can see his body language talking on the phone with Obama, how you think he will act under a big terrorist attack?
If a big attack happens before the next election then Macron will be crushed.
(04-23-2017 05:54 PM)LEMONed IScream Wrote: You will surely forgive me. But if Macron does get elected I will not have a slightest drop of empathy the next time Paris gets attacked.
I sometimes see this written by guys on here and wonder if they are serious.
Come on man, it's possible to have empathy even for the worst people. Voting for the wrong person is hardly grounds for withdrawing your empathy for another human being getting murdered by these animals.
'Reality' is getting weird by the minute. Macron is a globalist agent disguised as a Gaullist. However, it happens that he's a 'kept boy' handled by his 25 years older wife. Just figure out! I wonder what kind of material his mama-wife has on him to keep him on line, both domestically and politically.