@burneremail, where are you getting 5x odds?

Remember that young Russian nationalist girl, Maria Katasonova, with the "War & Peace" sign in Moscow before US election cheering hard Trump ?

She's campaigning hard for Le Pen these days. Met her in Moscow last week, and now went to Paris.

Seems to be converse often with former US-ambassador in Moscow, McFaul.

(03-31-2017 01:22 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  2) strong enthusiasm for Le Pen means high voter turn out. Macron has depressed enthusiasm, thus lower turn out

Very few people were enthusiastic for the ridiculously corrupt Jacque Chirac, but 75% of the entire electorate turned out in the runoff against Jean-Marie Le Pen. A 82 to 18 landslide.

Macron, is a lot more palatable. I would only feel secure betting on Marine if the odds were very good or Fillon endorsed her.

Quote:3) Google trends showing her being consistently searched 2x as much as Macron and this can be monitored throughout the election.

She is a lot more famous overseas than Macron, which biases that statistic. Here is Google trends for France.
https://trends.google.fr/trends/story/FR...BAABdwM_en

Anyway, other than that, I agree with your post. She is far more viable than the polls suggest.

(03-31-2017 06:03 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  @burneremail, where are you getting 5x odds?

Betfair is about 4.9:1 ATM

If you put all three into Google trends and isolate it to France, Fillon is first as far as most searched, Macron is second, and Le Pen is a distant third. It unfortunately looks like she's a lot more popular worldwide than in France.

(03-31-2017 06:03 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  @burneremail, where are you getting 5x odds?

Betfair.au.

They take 5% commission off your profits but they give the best odds I could find. Legit site. As I am writing this they are offering 4.9x for backing le pen..

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore...2F011ncr8c

I isolated for France now, link posted above. Still have fillon/le pen/Macron corresponding to 21/16/8. Fillon is sharply declining, probably due to scandal fatigue.

Any advice on where to bet for a US resident? Betfair doesn't allow it. Looks like Bovada (where I bet on Trump successfully) has closed up shop on their Politics section after getting toasted in the US election.

(03-30-2017 10:48 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  

(03-30-2017 10:05 PM)Nascimento Wrote:  Seems like betting on French politics is much more volatile and riskier than what we saw in the 2016 American election. Going to pass.

True, the 1.8:1 favourite used to be Juppe, now he's out.
Then it was Fillon, at but he's dropped to 7:1 .

Macron just came out of nowhere. Anyone who bet on him early would really make a fortune.

Interesting... Rothschilds fucking up the betting markets to make a windfall on their guy?

Fillon is spiking again on Google Trends. His wife has been officially charged.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/french...-1.4044822

(04-02-2017 04:03 PM)Fender_Bender Wrote:  Any advice on where to bet for a US resident? Betfair doesn't allow it. Looks like Bovada (where I bet on Trump successfully) has closed up shop on their Politics section after getting toasted in the US election.

http://www.predictit.org

(03-31-2017 07:23 PM)wi30 Wrote:  If you put all three into Google trends and isolate it to France, Fillon is first as far as most searched, Macron is second, and Le Pen is a distant third. It unfortunately looks like she's a lot more popular worldwide than in France.

It is what it is. To quite Joseph de Maistre:

"Toute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite."

Every nation has the government it deserves.

Over the past decade or two I'm often tempted to have pity with the people affected by terrorism, rape, violence, abuse, etc. all across Europe. But every single election season I see the same assholes being put back into office. Which means that the people who voted for them deserve EXACTLY what is coming for them.

Russia is a different story of course... even the most protective nations can be attacked. Fortunately that usually bears quite negative consequences for the perpetrator. Let's hope Putin won't disappoint.

Another article to feed my confirmation bias..

http://www.insidesources.com/new-poll-hi...ry-france/

Fillon can't make ends meet, despite making more than 10K euros / month.
http://actu.orange.fr/societe/insolite/f...FP0hO.html

French video of the interview:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5h42tp...e-non_news

Jean-Jacques Bourdin (host) : "Are you able to save money?"
Fillon : "Me, personnaly?"
Jean-Jacques Bourdin : "Yes".
Fillon : "No."
Jean-Jacques Bourdin : "35% of french people can do it. I don't know if you saw that number. I only say it like that."


Concerned french people decide to start a fundraiser for the poor man.
https://www.leetchi.com/c/solidarite-de-...n-18193780
Actually more than 1.1K euros donated, by 741 people.

Help him, please!
He doesn't know how to take care of his own finances, but he'll be able to do it for France, that's for sure.

(04-03-2017 04:32 PM)Latan Wrote:  Fillon can't make ends meet, despite making more than 10K euros / month.
http://actu.orange.fr/societe/insolite/f...FP0hO.html

French video of the interview:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5h42tp...e-non_news

Jean-Jacques Bourdin (host) : "Are you able to save money?"
Fillon : "Me, personnaly?"
Jean-Jacques Bourdin : "Yes".
Fillon : "No."
Jean-Jacques Bourdin : "35% of french people can do it. I don't know if you saw that number. I only say it like that."


Concerned french people decide to start a fundraiser for the poor man.
https://www.leetchi.com/c/solidarite-de-...n-18193780
Actually more than 1.1K euros donated, by 741 people.

Help him, please!
He doesn't know how to take care of his own finances, but he'll be able to do it for France, that's for sure.

This is yellow journalism of the worst kind, working hand in hand
with the Macron/establishment PR team.

Fillon might not have cash savings, but he's worth seven figures,
having invested most of his income into his country manor, where he's
raised five kids. That's smart investing, and good parenting, he's
a solid patriarch:






Macron on the other hand has either burned through the $4.5 million
he's earned working a few years for the Rosthschilds, or he's evading taxes
in a major way, hiding millions somewhere. If the journalists weren't so freakingly
biased, they would have investigated him instead.

And this is his real "family":



The gay multimillionaire bigshot globalist who has "spotted" Macron
when he was 23yo, and loaned him Eur 550,000, which he has still
not reimbursed despite having earned over Eur 3 millions.

And his current lover:



The french MSM is shilling for Macron and thrashing Fillon in the
most blatantly biased way.

Geez...

Meanwhile...

(04-03-2017 05:44 PM)911 Wrote:  The french MSM is shilling for Macron and thrashing Fillon in the
most blatantly biased way.

I think this is a good thing.

In the second round, the voters will have to choose between a leftist candidate and Le Pen, not between right and "far right".
Her chances are much higher in the first scenario.

I don't think Fillon will do anything about immigration policies, whatever he says / will say to get Le Pen's voters.

(04-03-2017 10:12 PM)budoslavic Wrote:  Geez...

Some places in Paris are even worse.
Go to the subway station "Château d'Eau" (close to the Center of Paris), you'll see 95% african people, literally.
Paris isn't Paris anymore.

   

Are people in France aware of the terms like "globalist" and "cuckservative" which will make them view Macron as what he is - a far-leftist candidate? Or do they truly believe that he is a "centrist" ()?

Well, if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to choose. I'm not certain I'd pick Grandma. Homosexuality vs Pseudonecrophilia is a tough choice.

Macron is a kind of dude who seems to to swing both ways. He will literally suck dick for cash and prices and he will also lick WalkindDead-pussy for the same rewards.

Also - whether someone is able to save income is bullshit. I also don't get how they come up with the 35% of French being able to save. They probably included all the pensioners who are able to save 20 EUR / month off their meager income.

Fuck the mainstream media. Politicians mostly are dirt-poor compared to the real money-class of the world's trillionaires. Anyone who has to work for a wage is poor to the globalist class, so that includes all politicians who scrape like crazy to make 200k per year, while their lobbyists make 5 mio. $ each. And even they are at best upstarts with no real lasting wealth.

(04-04-2017 02:50 AM)Latan Wrote:  I think this is a good thing.

In the second round, the voters will have to choose between a leftist candidate and Le Pen, not between right and "far right".
Her chances are much higher in the first scenario.

I don't think Fillon will do anything about immigration policies, whatever he says / will say to get Le Pen's voters.

Latan, this is a very dangerous scenario.

Because this is an all-or-nothing situation. If Le Pen loses then not only France but the whole of Europe is in incredible risk, giving the new meaning to being in deep shit.

And the thing is, Le Pen has a big chance to lose. Remember this is not America. People here are cucked much more than American. Plus, the anti-establishment feeling has been around in France for a long time, so it lacks the shock effect like it did in USA.

Unlike Americans, people who would rather vote for the "lesser evils" which was quite a few during US election, would rather vote blanche here. And we dont have the electoral system to balance things out. Shit holes like Paris and Lyon will bring the vote seriously to Macron given how much they outnumber the country people.

That, and French people lack an investigative sense of justice. Most of potential votesr dont reckon the chances of the election being rigged whatsoever, whereas the idea was clearly on the table during the USA election.

If it comes down to Filion vs Le Pen, in the highly likely case that she loses, then the same decline would continue in France unabated.

If its Macron vs Le Pen, and if she loses, on est vraiment dans la merde!!!

Live debate with all the candidates:
http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/live-video/

There are 11 candidates so they can't really debate with so much people.

Melenchon has been really dipping into the populist well, thrashing the EU and calling against "social dumping" through foregin workers, his numbers went up. I doubt he is sincere, his role is to take the wind out of Hamon's sail, and take some blue collar voters from le Pen.

(04-04-2017 07:03 PM)911 Wrote:  Melenchon has been really dipping into the populist well, thrashing the EU and calling against "social dumping" through foregin workers, his numbers went up. I doubt he is sincere, his role is to take the wind out of Hamon's sail, and take some blue collar voters from le Pen.

Yup - old tactic of saying a few sentences that make the appearance of "doing something" while in reality after the election everything will be forgotten and it will be the usual program as before.

(04-04-2017 07:03 PM)911 Wrote:  Melenchon has been really dipping into the populist well, thrashing the EU and calling against "social dumping" through foregin workers, his numbers went up. I doubt he is sincere, his role is to take the wind out of Hamon's sail, and take some blue collar voters from le Pen.

But is there any real risk Le Pen won't reach the second round?

Anyway, scary news... a poll suggests 27% of Marine le Pen's supporters would vote for Macron if she doesn't get through. Fillon, would only get 18% of their vote.

We've been neighbours for thousands of years but sometimes I really really don't understand the French.

(04-05-2017 03:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  We've been neighbours for thousands of years but sometimes I really really don't understand the French.

I don't either, don't worry.