^ My reference was more to 1984, but it absolutely inspired that Star Trek episode.

Not only is that poll D +34 but of the people polled 407 voted for Obama and 193 for Romneynin 2012. Didn't Romney win Arizona?

(10-19-2016 02:42 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Not only is that poll D +34 but of the people polled 407 voted for Obama and 193 for Romneynin 2012. Didn't Romney win Arizona?

Romney 53, Barry 44.

Jill Stein has been hammering Hillary over her corruption, would have been good to have her at the debate for that reason alone.

(10-19-2016 02:26 PM)Ocelot Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:16 PM)Dismal Operator Wrote:  Latest poll from Arizona, which has Clinton up by 5. Media is furiously wanking over this.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/poli.../92390100/

Sample Breakdown: 58% D, 23 % R, 19 % I

The gaslighting is reaching all time highs.

>D+34 in an R+5 state

D+34

D + 3 4
+
3
4

Is this real life?

D + mother-fucking thirty-four. Jesus Christ.

I have people on my facebook who have done stats as part of their degrees blindly asserting there is nothing wrong with the polls and Trump supporters are just sore losers. University is officially making millennials dumber.

That's the unweighted sample. They know what the breakdown is, they clearly state it here:

Quote:Registration among parties is about 35 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, and the rest with other parties or with no party preference (Independents). In our data, respondents to the voting questions tended to be a less representative of Republicans, but no statistical association between party and response was found.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/...tober.html

Page 6.

(10-19-2016 02:26 PM)Ocelot Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:16 PM)Dismal Operator Wrote:  Latest poll from Arizona, which has Clinton up by 5. Media is furiously wanking over this.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/poli.../92390100/

Sample Breakdown: 58% D, 23 % R, 19 % I

The gaslighting is reaching all time highs.

>D+34 in an R+5 state

D+34

D + 3 4
+
3
4

Is this real life?

D + mother-fucking thirty-four. Jesus Christ.

I have people on my facebook who have done stats as part of their degrees blindly asserting there is nothing wrong with the polls and Trump supporters are just sore losers. University is officially making millennials dumber.

Same with me. One of my sister's prior to going into Pharmacology got a degree in Demography and Bio-Stats, she telling me all this stuff with the polls is fine. Nate Silver is her favorite since he just pumps out stats porn for nerds. I mention his model is cooked up because his bias is embedded into it. She vigorously defends it and the rest of the polls. Her defence rests on shoddy appeal to authority that since these people make a living pumping out polls their methods are sound.

She calls me dangerous for always thinking data can be messed around with. I tell her data is only as good as the way it is collected and put together. Shit in and shit out. Anybody with a peanut brain can understand that basic truth.

College just makes you more stupid. You ditch common sense the higher educated you get.

What is more interesting than the R vs D breakdown is the number of 2012 voters from
The poll who went for Obama vs Romney. According to that poll Obama Dominated the state by more than doubling Romneys votes.

Or am I completely missing something?

They can feel the breathing behind their necks

Because the Clinton News Network is being exposed for what it is- that video cracked me up.

(10-19-2016 03:00 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:26 PM)Ocelot Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:16 PM)Dismal Operator Wrote:  Latest poll from Arizona, which has Clinton up by 5. Media is furiously wanking over this.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/poli.../92390100/

Sample Breakdown: 58% D, 23 % R, 19 % I

The gaslighting is reaching all time highs.

>D+34 in an R+5 state

D+34

D + 3 4
+
3
4

Is this real life?

D + mother-fucking thirty-four. Jesus Christ.

I have people on my facebook who have done stats as part of their degrees blindly asserting there is nothing wrong with the polls and Trump supporters are just sore losers. University is officially making millennials dumber.

Same with me. One of my sister's prior to going into Pharmacology got a degree in Demography and Bio-Stats, she telling me all this stuff with the polls is fine. Nate Silver is her favorite since he just pumps out stats porn for nerds. I mention his model is cooked up because his bias is embedded into it. She vigorously defends it and the rest of the polls. Her defence rests on shoddy appeal to authority that since these people make a living pumping out polls their methods are sound.

She calls me dangerous for always thinking data can be messed around with. I tell her data is only as good as the way it is collected and put together. Shit in and shit out. Anybody with a peanut brain can understand that basic truth.

College just makes you more stupid. You ditch common sense the higher educated you get.

Like I keep telling the Accounting Dept and these genius auditors straight outta college....you can't just Average a bunch of Averages! It doesn't mean a fucking thing, especially when so many of these polls have obviously been cooked and paid to show specific results!

This phenomenon has a name: the fact that the average of averages is not the average is an instance of Simpson’s Paradox.
http://lemire.me/blog/2005/10/28/average...e-average/

http://www.incontext.indiana.edu/2013/ma...ticle3.asp

http://geekswithblogs.net/darrengosbell/...rages.aspx

http://ksrowell.com/blog-visualizing-dat...e-hint-no/

This is all Nate Silver and all his worshipers are doing, they just don't fucking get it. If you average polls, which themselves are ridiculously skewered averages, it's meaningless data!

(10-19-2016 03:24 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  Like I keep telling the Accounting Dept and these genius auditors straight outta college....you can't Average a bunch of Averages!

Disagree. Building models on top of models is a reasonable stats modeling strategy. If one poll is 70% accurate and the other is 30%, weighting their scores as such is a reasonable method. Any model that is better than randomness and not 100% correlated with other models, adds some marginal value when used in aggregation of model outputs.

Quote:It doesn't mean a fucking thing, especially when so many of these polls have obviously been cooked and paid to show specific results!...If you average polls, which themselves are ridiculously skewered averages, it's meaningless data!

Agree. If all the models are shit, the average of the models will still be shit.

These polling firms are tying their own noose.

Eventually they will have to cut the games and report correctly before election day or else all will go out of business.

Who the hell will pay them money next cycle when your polling was so bad and shoddy?

What marketing case can they make in 2 months to pay obsene money for them to run polls and do research for you?

Would you trust them to do your market research for you?

Look how bad they are botching this stuff. The money they are getting must be real good for them to throw all their credibility out the window like this. All are kamikazes right now way off target.

You're better off hiring a bunch of College kids as they will report better numbers then these lofty firms.

Kellyanne brings up the truth last night that the polls are trash because if they forecast such huge HRC leads then why don't she go above ~50%? HRC has been stick at 42-46% all election yet with these firms messing around with Trump's numbers it woukd suggest she is heading towards a performance better than Obama vs McCain. Pure BS.

Re: Nate Silver, the man will be unemployed by Feb. ESPN is paying his ass big league money for a website that bleeds cash. 538 has never made money, eventually the music has to stop with that failing site, and if he botches this election prediction his oracle status is gone. He will still get a payout so he likely does not give a shit, but with no credibility he will be stuck on Yahoo or some other joke platform like Huff Post.

(10-19-2016 03:31 PM)cibo Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 03:24 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  Like I keep telling the Accounting Dept and these genius auditors straight outta college....you can't Average a bunch of Averages!

Disagree. Building models on top of models is a reasonable stats modeling strategy. If one poll is 70% accurate and the other is 30%, weighting their scores as such is a reasonable method.

Quote:It doesn't mean a fucking thing, especially when so many of these polls have obviously been cooked and paid to show specific results!...If you average polls, which themselves are ridiculously skewered averages, it's meaningless data!

Agree. If all the models are shit, the average of the models will still be shit.

Right, but we already know all these crooked poll's aren't weighted properly on their accuracy, quite the opposite in fact. They are all presented equally weighted by 538, and the MSM typically favors the least accurate polls like the one above with the heaviest Dem skews, and gives the least accurate polls the most credibility, so all the data becomes worthless shit.

   

(10-19-2016 02:25 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  58%? What the hell?

By comparision...

California Party Affiliation from Google...:

" The share of registered voters who are Democrats (44.8%) is up from 2012 (43.7%), while the share of Republicans (27.3%) is down (from 29.4%). The share of voters who say they are independent (also known as "decline to state” or "no party preference”) has been increasing: it is now 23.3%, up from 20.9% in 2012.""

So they expect us to believe that Arizona is now more democratic than California?

Their goal is to demoralize R voters. Social media and ground game must be strong for both the Trump campaign and people like us.

I think Mr. Trump's about to "Win one for the Gipper!"

(10-19-2016 03:19 PM)Latinopan Wrote:  They can feel the breathing behind their necks

I think the US media needs to take tips from the UK/EU media and elevate themselves above the crowd to avoid such things.

Even then, the Trumpsters had elevated signs to counter any dodgy camera work.

Jim Acosta on CNN says that Trump got some debate practice in before tonight. Preibus sat in as the moderator, meh, ok..

Christie played Killary.



I'm optimistic that Christie gave Trump the full court press, and went to Level:Marcobot on Trump in the mock debate. If so..

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/15202452602...ial-debate

Here’s a little thought experiment for you:

If a friend said he could see a pink elephant in the room, standing right in front of you, but you don’t see it, which one of you is hallucinating?

Answer: The one who sees the pink elephant is hallucinating.

Let’s try another one.

If a friend tells you that you were both abducted by aliens last night but for some reason only he remembers it, which one of you hallucinated?

Answer: The one who saw the aliens is hallucinating.

Now let’s add some participants and try another one.

If a crowd of people are pointing to a stain on the wall, and telling you it is talking to them, with a message from God, and you don’t see anything but a stain, who is hallucinating? Is it the majority who see the stain talking or the one person who does not?

Answer: The people who see the stain talking are experiencing a group hallucination, which is more common than you think.

In nearly every scenario you can imagine, the person experiencing an unlikely addition to their reality is the one hallucinating. If all observers see the same addition to their reality, it might be real. But if even one participant can’t see the phenomenon – no matter how many can – it is almost certainly not real.

Here I pause to remind new readers of this blog that I’m a trained hypnotist and a student of persuasion in all its forms. I’ve spent a lifetime trying to learn the tricks for discerning illusion from reality. And I’m here to tell you that if you are afraid that Donald Trump is a racist/sexist clown with a dangerous temperament, you have been brainwashed by the best group of brainwashers in the business right now: Team Clinton. They have cognitive psychologists such as Godzilla advising them. Allegedly.

I remind you that intelligence is not a defense against persuasion. No matter how smart you are, good persuaders can still make you see a pink elephant in a room where there is none (figuratively speaking). And Clinton’s team of persuaders has caused half of the country to see Trump as a racist/sexist Hitler with a dangerous temperament. That’s a pink elephant.

As a public service (and I mean that literally) I have been trying to unhypnotize the country on this matter for the past year. I don’t do this because I prefer Trump’s policies or because I know who would do the best job as president. I do it because our system doesn’t work if you think there is a pink elephant in the room and there is not. That isn’t real choice. That is an illusion of choice.

Trump represents what is likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bring real change to a government that is bloated and self-serving. Reasonable people can disagree on policies and priorities. But Trump is the bigger agent for change, if that’s what you think the country needs. I want voters to see that choice for what it is.

And it isn’t a pink elephant.

If you are wondering why a socially liberal and well-educated cartoonist such as myself is not afraid of Trump, it’s because I don’t see the pink elephant. To me, all anti-Trumpers are experiencing a shared illusion.

Pause here.

Before you scoff at mass, shared illusions as being unlikely, keep in mind that everyone with a different religion than yours is experiencing exactly that. Mass shared illusions are our most common experience.

Back to my point. As a trained persuader, I can see the “Trump is Hitler” illusion for what it is. Where you might see a mountain of credible evidence to support your illusion, I see nothing but confirmation bias on your part. I have detailed that confirmation bias in other posts.

Remember my rule from above. If you see something unlikely – such as a new Hitler rising in the midst of America – and I see nothing remotely like that – I’m almost certainly right and you’re almost certainly having the illusion. I say that because the person who sees the unlikely addition to reality is the one experiencing the illusion nearly every time. Trump as Hitler-in-America is an addition to reality that only some can see. It is a pink elephant. It is a classic hallucination.

I’m not trying to say I’m smarter than anyone else. I just don’t see the pink elephant. Nor do perhaps 40% of the country who prefer Trump as president. And when that many people don’t see a pink elephant in a room, you can be sure it isn’t there, no matter how many do see it.

If you are a Clinton supporter, you might think Trump supporters see the same pink elephant that you do, and you rationalize that by saying Trump supporters prefer the pink elephant because they want it to stomp all over minorities.

Some Trump supporters are racists. That’s a fact. Racists are in every group. Perhaps they see the pink elephant too. If so, they probably do want that elephant to stomp all over minorities. But in this case, the racists are sharing the same illusion as Clinton supporters, seeing the same pink elephant. The majority of Trump supporters – as far as I can tell – simply don’t see any pink elephant at all. They just want change.

I don’t believe in Santa Claus.

I don’t believe in ghosts.

I don’t believe in a traditional god.

I don’t believe in luck.

And I don’t see Donald Trump as dangerous.

In my elephant-free view of the world, Trump is a guy who uses provocative language (as New Yorkers do) while succeeding across several different fields. And he knows risk-management. You can see that in everything he does.

If you are an anti-Trumper, you might reject my point of view as manipulative or naive. I can’t change your mind with a blog post. But you can change your own mind. Just ask others if they see the addition to reality that you see. If others don’t see the pink elephant in the room, and you do, the elephant isn’t there.

Look for that pattern. Once you see it, you’re awake.

Then vote for whoever has the policies you like.

(10-19-2016 03:19 PM)Latinopan Wrote:  They can feel the breathing behind their necks

Does any one know the name of that musical piece?

(10-19-2016 03:59 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:25 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  58%? What the hell?

By comparision...

California Party Affiliation from Google...:

" The share of registered voters who are Democrats (44.8%) is up from 2012 (43.7%), while the share of Republicans (27.3%) is down (from 29.4%). The share of voters who say they are independent (also known as "decline to state” or "no party preference”) has been increasing: it is now 23.3%, up from 20.9% in 2012.""

So they expect us to believe that Arizona is now more democratic than California?

Their goal is to demoralize R voters. Social media and ground game must be strong for both the Trump campaign and people like us.

I think they are going to try and steal Arizona. They have been building the story for a long time now.

^

Grieg's In the Hall of the Mountain King

What is with this Godzilla fellow. I always thought he stomped on Tokyo, not some cuck political guy for Hillary.

(10-19-2016 04:22 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 03:59 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(10-19-2016 02:25 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  58%? What the hell?

By comparision...

California Party Affiliation from Google...:

" The share of registered voters who are Democrats (44.8%) is up from 2012 (43.7%), while the share of Republicans (27.3%) is down (from 29.4%). The share of voters who say they are independent (also known as "decline to state” or "no party preference”) has been increasing: it is now 23.3%, up from 20.9% in 2012.""

So they expect us to believe that Arizona is now more democratic than California?

Their goal is to demoralize R voters. Social media and ground game must be strong for both the Trump campaign and people like us.

I think they are going to try and steal Arizona. They have been building the story for a long time now.

I fully expect them to try and do just that and more. After all, hasn't Crooked Hillary and/or her surrogates been visiting traditionally Republican states lately? The mainstream media describes her actions as "confidently going into Republican territory" which of course is complete bullshit. The truth is, they want that plausible deniability when they try to steal those states they can claim her last ditch efforts there paid off. Fuck these lying assholes.