If it weren't for #CollapsingHillary, they would be talking non-stop about a series of new polls today that show Trump in some less-than-positive circumstances. I'll take the liberty of throwing some cold water on this latest round of b.s. polls.
Firstly, a garbage
ABC News/Washington Post poll. This poll is on-par with the legendary "28-26 Cruz" b.s. poll in the height of Trump's popularity during the Republican primaries.
Hillary is up +8 in a two-way (51-43) and +5 in a four-way (46-41-9-2). These results are extremely irregular from recent national polling that's shown the race narrowing; they'll serve to inflate the RCP average too, which is doubly unfortunate.
Here's what they won't tell you:
Quote:METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 5-8, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including 642 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect, for the full sample, and 4.5 points for likely voters. Partisan divisions are 34-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 36-28-31 among likely voters.
If you're keeping track at home, that's a +10 D sample on registered voters, +8 D on likely voters. This is far, FAR above a typical sample that's typically a +4 skew. Not to get into "unskewing poll" territory but in a more representative sample, the gap all but evaporates.
Also, the polling also being conducted in Spanish... come on.
Next up, NBC/WSJ/Marist (they of the aforementioned legendary "28-26 Cruz") also have some state polls out. One only has Trump up +2 in Georgia. When you check the methodology, their registered voter distribution is 34% Democrat, 33% Republican, 32% Independent. More Dems that Republicans in the f'ing state of Georgia. Does that sound right to you? As a minimum, Gallup polling in 2014 had the registered voter distribution as +4 R (43-39) in 2014, per a wikipedia article. Romney won by almost 8 points in 2012. So Trump's meagre "+2" should be many points higher.
Lastly, CBS News/YouGov has Clinton +7 (46-39-7-2) in Ohio. Are you fucking kidding me? Again, Ohio has been consistently getting consolidated and showing Trump leads; Quinnipiac, hardly a friend to any Republican sampling, had Trump +4 in a poll released a couple of days ago.
So why Clinton +7? Again, it's all in the sampling.
-Clinton is up on Trump in men +4 (45-41), are you kidding me??? I still refuse to believe that.
-Party ID was 362 Dems, 310 Repubcs, 299 Independent; that works out to a +5 D sample. Ohio skews Republican, although narrowly, but still questionable.
-The poll has Trump only getting 77% of Republicans. 8% each to Hillary and Gary Johnson... maybe if John Kasich can stfu and get on board, that'd help.
In conclusion: fuck these polls. Maybe we can get MSNBC and Chuck Todd to unskew some of them!
Or as someone on r/the_donald noted: "
All pre-fainting polls are now irrelevant."