Post: #1

Hi guys,

This is my first time posting. I'm programmer, mathematician and a guy who really likes sports.

About a year and a half ago, I started progressive betting on soccer. Most people probably know about it - you bet draw, if game doesn't draw, you double your bet next time, and so on, until you win (there are alternatives, but I used this one).

So, long story short, over time I developed algorithm that could find teams that will most probably draw their next game (3.7 out of 5 best ranked games ends in draw). With this percentage, I get some really nice money

What came to my mind is - if I create a website that would offer betting suggestions, would people pay for that? Would you pay 5-10$/month for this? How to advertise it?
Most of these things sound like scams (great majority are), but this is pure maths.

Also, I',m not sure should I quit my 9-5 job, and finish this in 3 months, or do this in my spare time, and finish in a year. Any advice is welcome

Post: #2

Package the service disguised as a product

Post: #3

People would pay for it even if it is just a scam.

Post: #4

It's called being a tout. Get an email list of people who bet on soccer. Give them free plays. When the plays win email them offering them a service.

Post: #5

Depends do you like your 9-5? If you can make your side business work in your spare time, don't quit your 9-5. If you're not passionate about your 9-5 and hate it, quite. The gambling business is a tough one though. I gave it a go a few years ago when I was young and dumb. From what I learnt - is all good things come to an end with gambling, the odds just aren't in your favor. The only way to guarantee coin is to own the book or casino. So if you can keep your 9-5 for when that cold streak that is bound to come, its a great thing to fall back on. I definitely had to fall back on mine 2-3 times.

As for selling your service. Depends on what your target audience is. If your wanting to make $$$ by selling picks. Keep the price down and online market the fuck out of it and go for the average Joe and sell your services in mass volume. If you want to be in the industry for the long haul, target the pros and sell it as a tool that the pros/people can incorporate into their own system. The guys that sell these “tools” are the ones that I know that are still making coin and were not an overnight daisy like many of the guys that sell pick and systems.

Good Luck dude, I hope it works out for you.

Post: #6

Martingale systems are a horrible way to make money and a quicker way to lose a bankroll. Most knowledgable bettors would run away from martingale systems but there are sites thatll monitor your results and if you truly have a system that makes money youre better off joining one of them, let them document your results which in turn will draw plenty of customers. Without that track record most bettors will be highly suspicious of touts and their unreal promises, just think who is going to give away a winning system for cheap when they can cash in themselves? There are for the record numerous math based systems out there, few if any are successful so its a nice talking point but doesnt mean a whole lot. If youre looking for subscribers here id try and prove myself, offer up some free pics and lets see what ya got.

Post: #7

It seems like you just tweaked the 'Martingale' betting system. If you found an algorithm that legitimately gives you an edge over the house, protect it with your life. Set up multiple accounts with different online books with different people that you know and mix your plays between them so their algorithms don't find your betting patterns and stop accepting your plays. If your system works that well, you should be able to scale easily and make millions before anyone is the wiser.

Eventually these online books will realize that they are hemorrhaging money because of a betting system and your advantage will dwindle substantially. Now it's time to sell your system to the public with a great story behind it on how you "took the casinos for millions using a secret algorithm" that they can now purchase for $___. The reason for this is that if you started marketing it today with claims of it giving you a big edge, the casinos will be your first customers and will adjust the lines of your suggested plays to make them not nearly as profitable.

Post: #8

To me, the thing with sports betting is that the true value isn't in "picking the winner", but in being able to beat the bookies. To beat bookies you need unfortunately more than good picks.

-Bankroll management
-Good logic/problem resolution skills
-Advanced statistical analysis & math skills
-Passion for watching sports
-Advanced knowledge of online betting platforms and payment processors

I think in order to be profitable on the long term all of these things are necessary. It's also why, although the idea is good, and some have had success with it (zcode is one I think of)... you'll mostly get clueless people subscribing to your picks. Which can be profitable, but anybody who understands math & gambling a little bit - also understands that it's a long journey to see a real valuation of what you're trying to sell.

The pro betters I know.. aren't the guys with the best picking % in the world, but they find hard value in the odds that are offered online. They sometimes freeroll by betting on different teams on different betting platforms ect

Keep in mind that sports betting is very high variance.
It's also very popular, so if you can reach out to the Loto crowd you might see some action, but from upper class betting enthusiasts, don't expect many subscriptions IMO.

Good luck

Post: #9

Nice replies, guys

I always tought of offering free plays for new subscribers, but the catch is getting subscribers (to come + subscribe) in the first place.

Quote: Depends do you like your 9-5?

Not really.

Quote:Martingale systems are a horrible way to make money and a quicker way to lose a bankroll.

Yeah, I know. That's why I'm still betting low stakes, not risking to much. I'll guess I'll know if I've found right combination after another half a year or so.

Katatonic's advice is a dream coming true , but it's only possible if I can 100% rely on this (which I cannot, yet).

Ty, all. If I get this thing rolling, you'll be first to know about it.

Post: #10

I once had a system whereby I would pick a really attack minded team (pref with a poor defence) and then lays the odds on the 0-0 on betfair before the game started. If it was 0-0 at half time but it was a fairly attacking game then lay the 0-0 some more at half time.

Years ago that team was arsenal and then went through the entire season not recording a single 0-0 draw in the league. So I made some decent money.

Unfortunately lost it back on other markets and have not re-loaded my betfair acc since.

Right now that team is Liverpool. They have not recorded a single 0-0 draw in the league season so far.

Post: #11

Interesting... What are the payouts when you bet draw?

Post: #12

I am not sure if I should suggest this. And since you are new I am not sure if you are legit.

But going off that email idea above from MidniteSpecial.

Don't mail the entire group each lead.

This way if you are wrong, you don't lose all your leads. Hopefully, you hit at least once before your emails leads are all used.

When you are right, these guys will think you are amazing and then buy your service.

Post: #13

Quote: Don't mail the entire group each lead.

Great thinking, tnx.

Quote:Interesting... What are the payouts when you bet draw?

Odds for soccer draw are usually about 3.2 (11/5 fractional). So, if you double after a game that didn't draw, you potential win is bigger, but also your potential loss (in case you run out of money).
I double untill I reach ~50 euro stake. After that I calculate stakes, in a way that profit is about 50 euros. This is done because I don't have limitless payrol, and this almost doubles number of games I can bet on.

Post: #14

Give me the system and if I make a mint from it, I'll write you a glowing testimonial.

Post: #15

I'll post details of how I play tonight (I'm in Europe, currently working, so I don't really have time to write everything).
But, I cannot give you my algorithm (hope you understand)
I could give a few tips on picking up teams.