Post: #1

Straight from the politico article:

(http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/pr...12374.html)

Quote:That is the concept behind PredictIt, an online political stock market that the operators say will go live Friday after clearing regulatory hurdles and receiving a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees such exchanges.

Though PredictIt could easily be confused with online gambling, it is legal — a prediction or futures market for politics that uses the marketplace to forecast events. PredictIt, a nonprofit research project, partnered with a university and restricted wagering on any single question to 5,000 people with each individual investment capped at $850.

The market could draw a class of political insiders — not to mention Wall Street speculators and pundits. Washington insiders and anyone else who thinks they know what will happen in politics can purchase an option — just like on the stock market — on the outcome of a nomination, election, vote or other political event.

It's truly the way the article states it, betting on politics instead of equities markets. For all of you politics buffs, this is for you.

Let's say you want to be on Marco Rubio getting nominated for President in 2016. As of right now, his chance of getting nominated is relatively low compared to front runners like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Let's just say it's around 20%.

If it's at 20%, you're able to buy share of his stock at 20 cents per dollar share, almost like percentages of a hundred.

If you buy 10 shares of his and he doesn't get the nomination, you lose the $2 collateral because $.20*10=$2. However, if he does get the nomination, you'll gain the remainder of the cent. That's $.80 of the $.20 you put in. Once again, if you buy 10 shares, you're going to gain $8 dollars for the original $2 investment. That's 4x what you put in.

The key for this is to bet on things early. I have my sights set on the Presidential nomination, because so many things can happen in 2 years. Jeb Bush may fall on the wayside, Walker may have his misdoings, and who knows what the rest of the pack can do.

Betting on a dark horse is your best bet, as you can make a ton of money off of it. Think, if you bet that Bloomberg will get the nomination, there's a 5% chance. That's $.05. If you buy 100 shares of that, that's $5. If for some unforseeable reason he does run for prez and does get the nod, you can get $95 dollars for your initial $5 investment. That's 19x what you put in. That's also a really radical example.

There's a minimum deposit of $10 also, so you can play around as much as you want. It's fun as shit too to see how public opinion sways. It's a little glitchy, but you won't lose any money from the glitches.

For shits and giggles I sold the fact that Putin will remain president of Russia before April 1st, just in case he gets assassinated. There's a 3% chance of that happening, but it cost me $.30

All I know is, this has potential to be big. And destabilizing to politics.

Post: #2

Anyone ever have any problems with this site?

Just put $200 on Trump winning Republican nomination.

30 cents a share

Post: #3

(02-04-2016 05:26 PM)dro323 Wrote:  Anyone ever have any problems with this site?

Just put $200 on Trump winning Republican nomination.

30 cents a share

I hope he does but I could see the establishment backing Rubio pretty heavily and have him sneak up the middle.

Post: #4

I have account here and lost on Iowa. Hoping to make some coin back on NH. If Trump loses NH I've blown my play allowance.

Post: #5

If you're new to the site, try creating an account but don't add any money at first.

When I initially signed up earlier this week, I neglected to add any funds, as I still wasn't sure how I wanted to bet.

24 hours later, PredictIt sent me an email saying if I were to add some cash, they'd match the deposit up to $25. I did and they immediately credited my account with $50. I imagine this is their way of enticing users on the fence to get started (it worked).

Meeting another RVFer today to talk strategy and betting tactics. I'll keep the thread updated with my thoughts.

Post: #6

I put about two grand into PredictIt this weekend, spread over a half dozen markets.

(Pro tip: the site doesn't show you any price history for a given bet until AFTER you've purchased a share. Once you do, you'll have access to line and candle charts for that prediction covering the past 24 hours and 7/30/90 days.)

I bought "Yes" shares in:

-Trump winning Indiana
-Trump winning the GOP nomination
-Trump winning the U.S. presidential election

I bought "No" shares in:

-A brokered GOP convention occurring
-Hillary winning the presidency
-A woman winning the presidency (a separate market from the above)

The key to my strategy isn't betting on these events coming to fruition per se. Because you can sell your shares at any time prior to the completion of the event, you can make money as long as public sentiment swings to favor the market selections you've made (i.e. buy disbelief, then sell fervor).

In this case, you'll notice my general betting theme is on Trump's odds improving. His minor campaign stumbles as of late (retweeting the Heidi picture, the abortion gotcha question, losing Wisconsin), in addition to nonstop MSM propaganda, have created a (what I believe to be artificially) low point in his campaign.

As an example, here's his 90-day history for winning the GOP nomination. Notice how the market has dropped his odds of winning from a late-February high of 80% to a current coin-flip:



My thinking is that while pro-Trump sentiment is low right now, the next three weeks should see a string of Trump successes (he'll dominate NY next Tuesday and should do well in the northeastern primaries the week after) that will create a corresponding rise in odds for the markets I've selected.

Shortly after his winning streak, I'll sell the majority of my newly-valuable shares at a profit, withdraw my initial investment, and perhaps let the profits ride through to the events themselves.

This way, I don't have to bet everything on Trump actually succeeding-just on people believing he's more likely to succeed in three weeks than they do right now.

Then again, a lot can happen in three weeks. I'll keep you guys updated.

Post: #7

This sounds fun.

Is it available to non US citizens? I tried browsing the site but couldn't find the answer (could be being stupid).

Post: #8

(04-11-2016 11:21 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  This sounds fun.

Is it available to non US citizens?

I believe so. The site is run by Victoria University, based out of New Zealand. I did a quick search through their Terms and Conditions and didn't see anything about having to be a U.S. citizen to sign up.

Post: #9

Tried to sign up but it said not available in my jurisdiction (UK).

Damn.

Post: #10

I'm in.

I've been taking bets in person with anyone who doubts the Donald, but decided to double down on the fuckery with PredictIt. I've invested in the same markets as IJ:

(04-11-2016 11:03 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I bought "Yes" shares in:

-Trump winning Indiana
-Trump winning the GOP nomination
-Trump winning the U.S. presidential election

I bought "No" shares in:

-A brokered GOP convention occurring
-Hillary winning the presidency
-A woman winning the presidency (a separate market from the above)

For diversification/fun, I put a small % in Hilary losing the candidacy ($0.13/share) and Sanders not dropping out in April ($0.91/share). Do I think Bernie will beat her? Not sure. But I'll take the odds.

However - the vast majority of my shares are in Trump winning it all, $0.20/share. As you can see from the 90 day chart, price is low and activity is minimal:



PredictIt is still doing the $25 matching if you make an account and wait 24 hours, and they accept credit cards. Between these two risk is slightly lowered.

I don't know when I'll sell.

Post: #11

^^^ I'm jealous.

Post: #12

4/18 update:

"Yes" shares:

-Trump winning Indiana UP 14%
-Trump winning the GOP nomination UP 11%
-Trump winning the U.S. presidential election UP 3%

"No" shares:

-A brokered GOP convention occurring UP 6%
-Hillary winning the presidency DOWN 5%
-A woman winning the presidency DOWN 7%

Overall my portfolio is up anywhere from 9-12%, depending on when I check. Even though my Hillary-related "No" shares are down, the bulk of my money is in the Trump-related markets.

I'm looking forward to his dominating NY tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see if his win/anticipated momentum is already "built in" to the price of the upcoming primaries, whether or not an over/under-performance will become a factor, etc. My strategy is still to hold throughout at least next Tuesday (the northeastern primaries) and then perhaps Indiana shortly after before cashing out the majority of my shares.

I still think there are some deals to be had here; Trump's at a coin flip in the Indiana primary market, and he's still hovering in the low 20s for the general election. If you're considering getting in, I'd do it now, before he really starts picking up steam these next two weeks.

Post: #13

Does anyone have any thoughts on the Democratic presidential nomination?

I think we're all fairly certain Hillary will win it in the end, but with Bernie currently at 13% I'm wondering if there's any possibility of making money off a bad Hillary story/possible indictment, or a rekindling of Bernie fever, etc. Again, I'm not betting on him actually winning, but just on general public sentiment rising from a very low starting point. If I bought now and then simply saw his chances rise to 20% I'd still make a decent bit of coin.

Post: #14

This sounded very similar to what Intrade used to be. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade

Quote:Intrade.com was a web-based trading exchange whose members "traded" contracts between each other on the probabilities of various events occurring. After having been forced to exclude US traders in 2012, on 10 March 2013 Intrade suspended all trading, citing possible "financial irregularities". For a time after the suspension, the intrade.com website stated that they were working on a relaunch of the site,[1] called "Intrade 2.0", but as of August 2014 it states that "It appears very unlikely now that Intrade will resume trading services in the way it had operated previously", and has announced plans to close all accounts and refund monies by 31 December 2014

Quote:Intrade allows bets on a wide range of future outcomes: political events (in the US, India, Germany, Israel etc.), climate change, current events (bird flu, earthquakes etc.), entertainment (Academy Awards, American Idol, Dancing with the Stars), science (the observation of the Higgs boson), technology (web browser market share, Google Lunar X Prize, Apple iPad unit sales), finance (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, gold price), but does not predict stocks or sports competitions. However, Intrade does operate markets on sports-related events that do not involve athletic competition, such as bids to host an Olympics. Sister site intrade.net (since closed) allowed the creation of custom markets.

Beginning in 2002, Intrade has offered a range of markets for political events, such as the outcomes of U.S. presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, as well as for a diversified range of international political events.

Interesting because it was shut down quite a while ago because it was too similar to gambling, or so people think. The exact reason is unknown.

Post: #15

Hint Trump to win presidency is same as Repubs to win presidency. If you want to bet this market, buy the repubs, not Trump, you pick up the rest of the field for basically free (you only lose the extremely unlikely chance of Trump winning via 3rd party)

Post: #16

If you're on PredictIt, go load up on Trump right now. He's gotten clobbered on this Kasich/Cruz deal. You aren't going to get better prices rest of the primary. Should recover back to previous levels after Tuesday.

Post: #17

5/2 update:

I'm addicted to PredictIt. I've more than tripled my initial investment, with all of it in some way riding on Trump. Fortunately he's been exceeding even the highest of expectations lately, first in NY, then in the northeastern primaries, and I'm willing to bet (heh) he does it again tomorrow in Indiana. My portfolio is currently up just under 40%.

I timed most of my primary markets well: bought Indiana/Oregon/Washington and Trump to win/Cruz to lose just after the Wisconsin loss, while they were lounging in the $.30s/40s, and now they're all near $.90.

I'll likely hold these through; once Trump wins Indiana it should become clear he's captured the nomination, and even if Cruz doesn't drop out the voters will take him less seriously every day.

For anyone still interested in getting into this, I'd recommend looking at general election-related markets. Trump to win the general/Hillary to lose, GOP to win the general/Dems to lose, Woman4Prez to lose and GOP to Win in a Landslide are all trading in the $.20s/$.30s.

Even if you're not on the Trump Train, it's hard to argue he's not undervalued here. And even if Hillary fights back, I'd expect these markets to at least rise somewhat once Trump wraps up the nomination, so there's money to be made even if you don't plan on holding through the election.

If you're going to buy though, I'd do it today before he wins Indy tomorrow and the nomination becomes more of a sure thing.

Post: #18

(04-11-2016 12:29 PM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  Tried to sign up but it said not available in my jurisdiction (UK).

Damn.

Not available in Canada either. Bummer.

Post: #19

They do an ID check to make sure you're legit - and probably American - but if you're an overseas American, like me, you can sign up using a free VPN like ProXPN, and then using your last US address.

Post: #20

I wanted to dig up this thread again

Let's say I know someone who is currently in the US. I'd wire him my money, make him register and account on predictit and if they ask him about identification, he could provide it. So far, so good. Now about actually using PredictIT: would they monitor the IP adress from where I'm logging in, thus making the use of a VPN with US IP a necessity?

Post: #21

SOMEHOW the markets are down. Trump for President opened at $0.19 but traders picked up and it's risen to $0.22.

Considering we've been floating between $0.30 - $0.40, now is a great time to buy.

Post: #22

The odds are really good. I wish I could get some of that action.

I've actually been looking, most of the EU betting sites (mostly in the UK) don't allow Spanish accounts. I assume Spain passed some anti internet gambling shit. This despite the shitty sports betting shops and "casinos" all over the place.

Post: #23

Over here in the UK you can get 4/1 for Trump. All the money is for Hitlary.

Post: #24

What other websites are you guys betting with? I have already placed the maximum bet I can on betfair.com. I can't register an account on predictit.com, which seems stupid since I have been a student at the university here in NZ that owns that website. Anyway I'm keen to bet quite a lot more on trump but I am not sure which websites are trustworthy.

Post: #25

Bet365 is at +350 right now with trump and -500 with Hillary. I already have a k on it and thinking about putting another k on Trump. What do you guys think?