I've been looking at charts from the last couple Bitcoin bubbles, particularly Nov 2013. Once the price hits that hockey stick exponential curve moment, there's always one last correction (normally big, just like today's) before the biggest jump upwards.

My prediction is that over the next few weeks Bitcoin hits at least $3k, likely shoots right past it. I'm a bit worried about my stops going through when/if there's a big crash after, so my plan is to start buying up ETH with my BTC as the price increases (hopefully Ethereum consolidates while Bitcoin goes up) as well as buying a handful of alts I think will do well even in a general crypto bear market (if that's where we're heading).

I'll likely pick up some Factom, Stratis, Waves, maybe a few ETH-based tokens like Golem and Auger, and definitely a BUNCH of Particl once it hits exchanges (although these ICO-type releases tend to pump and dump upon hitting the exchange, so I'll wait and see how that goes first).

I'll probably hold on to a Bitcoin or two long-term, but if I'm right and Bitcoin is about to top out I want to maximize my purchasing power while I can.

My biggest worry at the moment is, if Bitcoin continues along the same hype-cycle type pattern it's always followed, it's about to enter a down cycle and I'm not sure if it will pull the rest of crypto along with it. I'm too scared to sell my other holdings in case crypto as a whole keeps growing, so I might just have to HODL my other coins and hope for the best.

I'm looking at the following to make my portfolio

ETH
Waves
Maid
Steem
Gnt
Dcr
Xmr

Some pump and dump types I'm considering

Pivx
Sc
Dgb
Xrp

Help me cut down my list

Why so many? This is moon land shoot for the moon. Throw a lot at something with big upside.

Definitely drop XRP. I think Pivx used to be something else, they renamed it, got some traction and pumped. Same technology, different name. Shady. Dgb just exploded might not be the best time.

Eth, Sc, gnt.

(05-25-2017 05:02 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  And maybe we will be at $3k in the next 72 hours or maybe we will crash down to below $2k, but even going below $2k any time soon is not looking very likely.. and the higher we go up, the less likely it becomes to hit some of those lower numbers that some folks are projecting.

(05-25-2017 11:27 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Of course and for sure buying a week ago or earlier would have been preferable.

But Satoshi seems to be making fun of any kind of suggestion to buy right now.

Therefore, I am working with a kind of hypothetical that if a guy does not have any coins right now, and just heard about bitcoin or just begins to consider bitcoin, then what is that kind of guy supposed to do? Wait?

Waiting might be o.k., but it might not too. So in that kind of a scenario maybe the guy has $6k that he can invest now and $6k cash flow over the next six months for a total of $12k over six months.

I am suggesting that if he does not have any, then he might start by using $2k of his current allocated cash and buy right now (sure he can choose some other proportion, but I am just trying to consider some amount that might still be reasonable - just in case the price goes up before it goes down - none of us really know for sure until after the fact, right?)

(05-25-2017 05:12 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In the meantime... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!! haahahaha don't consider my excited utterance as investment advice.

To all of you guys new in this game, welcome! There is some cultural aspects associated with this sub-culture worth checking out.
For example: the mtgox song:



and the proudhon song (bitcoin is a bubble):





This one is good too even if the message contradicts the recommendations by the most frequent poster in this thread who rather suggest buying as expensive as possible

Price has gone from $2760 to $1950 on Stamp. That's over $800 drop. The last time BTC corrected for a few weeks it was about a $500 drop and everyone was in panic. The size of the correction is good, it shows that the scale of BTC price is increasing. Bigger waves up necessitate bigger waves down. I'm happy that there is a correction, especially in the alts, but we've got a while of correcting to go before the alts IMO have a reasonable price. Hopefully the alts will drop proportionally more as they increased far, far much more than BTC due to smaller mcaps, so that I can buy some. I don't mind waiting, I can accumulate more fiat with more time.

You just seem obsessed on BTC dying. If you had a failed investment in BTC in the past, just get over it. We've all taken Ls in life. If you're not interested in BTC then it's just silly to continue to keep posting. If you hate it so much and you think it sucks so bad, then just don't post in the thread and make another thread for things you do like.

Wow, what a bloodbath in crypto right now. I was expecting a pullback, but not quite that much. Looks like the market as a whole dropped ~30%.

I'm not quite sure what to expect from here on out, but it seems to me there are two likely scenarios:

1) This is a big correction before one last big run up (prior to a likely bubble popping), or

2) We just hit the top of the crypto bubble and have entered a weeks/months-long bear market. Maybe we consolidate in a range for a while, maybe we drop steadily lower for 6-12 months (or however long it takes for the market to shake out weak hands).

Either way I expect something of a bounce back in the next few days/weeks. If it's the former we should see a strong and robust recovery; if it's the latter we should see a dead cat bounce before prices turn around and start heading back down again. My cost basis on all my crypto holdings is pretty low, so I will consider taking some profit if the turnaround starts to look like more of a dead cat bounce than a proper resurgence.

If we have entered a bear market, I doubt it will be as long or protracted as the last one, which lasted all of 2014 through October of 2015 (looking primarily at Bitcoin, although Ethereum went through its own ~6 month bear market after the DAO hack last summer). Now that we've seen this Cambrian explosion of innovation and global adoption I doubt we'll trend downward that long; crypto as a whole is just moving into the early adoption stage and is still in a long-term bull market.

Something else to note is that one of the biggest drivers of the 2014-15 bear market (aside from the catastrophic Mt Gox collapse) was the fear of China or other major players banning Bitcoin. This time around, we've seen massive adoption on a global scale, with countries like Japan explicitly welcoming Bitcoin/crypto and others at least looking into regulation.

Add to that the huge amount of corporate investment/attention, both directly in Ethereum and indirectly in the form of B2B blockchain companies like Factom and Stratis, and I'm feeling much more comfortable holding the majority of my tokens through a bear market if need be. Crypto isn't going away any time soon.

I really don't want to sell most of what I've accumulated this year in order to take advantage of the long-term capital gains here in the States, so while I might take a little Bitcoin profit to reinvest in some alts/ICOs I will likely sit tight on everything else.

A correction was inevitable. Too many normies buying bitcoin this month.

I hope a DCB happens. That would be the time to start buying them up. This is exactly what I was waiting for. Blockchain technology is absolutely the future.

Still waiting for independent reserve to verify me. I plan to put 10k into BTC/ETC and immediately move it to Poloniex where I will buy up the various alt coins. Once BTC stabilizes at 800-1500 (I think the price will drop further in the coming weeks).

After educating myself further I believe crypto-currency isn't a bubble. At least BTC will stand the test of time where in 2020 and beyond it will still be around and be able to buy you a lambo. Seems like a better bet than fiat currency that loses value by 4% or more each year.

Anyone have experience with Coinjar?

http://www.coinjar.com

i love 4chan

(05-26-2017 03:17 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Relevant

[image of guy with towel and $2,500 BTC price]

Gotta consider that a kind of trolling post, no?

Whether you are correct or not that a price dump might be imminent, there is no substance there, and it just seems to be attempting to make fun of the views of other people... without any substantive discussion...

A picture might be worth a thousand words, but if it is provocation, then what? Is that helpful?

(05-26-2017 03:44 PM)GlobalMan Wrote:  I don't know why anyone would get into LiteCoin given the multiple alternatives with genuine quality. Should be dead already but somehow it's still alive.

LiteCoin does seem to be a kind of unique hedge - so yeah, sure, it might end up being dead and lacking innovation - yet at this point, it is nearly a complete clone of bitcoin - except for they have seg wit implemented and bitcoin does not. Therefore, litecoin is serving as a live testnet for seg wit and perhaps lightning network.

Maybe in the end, none of this matters, but for some persons, they see some value in at least that seg wit testing aspect of litecoin.

(05-28-2017 03:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-26-2017 03:17 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Relevant

[image of guy with towel and $2,500 BTC price]

Gotta consider that a kind of trolling post, no?

Whether you are correct or not that a price dump might be imminent, there is no substance there, and it just seems to be attempting to make fun of the views of other people... without any substantive discussion...

A picture might be worth a thousand words, but if it is provocation, then what? Is that helpful?

(05-26-2017 04:41 PM)raveking Wrote:  So based on the huge drops looking at coinmarketcap...If I just want to be holder and not trader, do I buy in at the dip or wait to buy in when the market stabilizes and buy high. What is the general rule of thumb here? Please and thank you lol.

The general rule of thumb is if you are bullish about an asset, then you buy on dips - and the bigger the dip the more reason to buy - however, it is true that you do not want to attempt to catch a falling knife so you may have either preset orders or attempt your best to buy on some significant dip and not necessarily expect to catch the exact bottom. Sometimes you will get lucky, though and catch pretty close to the bottom of the dip.

Ultimately buy low, sell high - and that is easier said than done sometimes.. .. but you can attempt by buying on the way down and selling on the way up.

All of us missed out on turning a measly $100 into millions and history is repeating itself before us and he has the sense of humour to troll, good for him.

(05-28-2017 04:15 AM)GlobalMan Wrote:  

(05-28-2017 03:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-26-2017 03:17 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Relevant

[image of guy with towel and $2,500 BTC price]

Gotta consider that a kind of trolling post, no?

Whether you are correct or not that a price dump might be imminent, there is no substance there, and it just seems to be attempting to make fun of the views of other people... without any substantive discussion...

A picture might be worth a thousand words, but if it is provocation, then what? Is that helpful?

What is that supposed to mean?

Are you talking about bitcoin price? Are you expecting further down at this point? Are you expecting a trend reversal at this point? Currently, we are certainly in a bull trend with a decent correction.

If you are referring to bitcoin's total market share, I don't know what bitcoin's total market share would have anything to do with me because I personally place very little importance on that as any kind of indicator of bitcoin's overall health.. especially in a rising market, like this. and the last 20 months have been amazing, especially since about new years..

Whoaza!!!!!!! hang on boys!!!!!

Anyhow, I am not sure about the connection or the meaning of the actual chart, except maybe to want to provoke, which what is the purpose of that? Are we competing in some way about something in regards to bitcoin or predictions?

I think that right now, we are in the midst of a pretty normal price correction, and it is great Finally, I have been able to buy back in.. We went all the way up from $890 to $2760 without any significant or meaningful correction (that is an amazing 3x rise in price in just a couple months).

This current correction from $2760 to $1850 (about 33%) was probably a bit over due.. and maybe not as much as I was thinking to be possible, but still a really decent correction.. and sure the correction might not be over, so if we have more correction, I am personally in a pretty decent position for that.. as far as my personal finances and my personal preparations...

In terms of my own trading mistakes, this particular correction has been pretty decent for me. I made a couple mistakes early on by canceling several of my buy orders and expecting more down in an earlier leg of the correction and then the price direction changed by going back up, but that mistake gave me an opportunity to reset and to spread out my buy orders quite a bit, which really made things much more manageable for me, when the second leg of the correction set in.

Several trading type folks will predict three legs to any significant correction, so in this situation we seem to have had two legs so far. I think? So a third leg could possible also.. but if the third leg does not happen, then probably, we are in territory that is relatively bullish for bitcoin, no?

I gotta repeat: Whoaza!!!!!!! hang on boys!!!!!

(05-28-2017 04:34 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  All of us missed out on turning a measly $100 into millions and history is repeating itself before us and he has the sense of humour to troll, good for him.

What do you mean?

I know that there is a kind of mindset about missing out, but we got what we got, and crypto is certainly not over.

In that regards, you can start investing at any time that you want. You can invest in bitcoin or you can invest in some other cryptos.

Sure you cannot roll back the clock. If you keep thinking that you missed out here there and everywhere else, then that does not seem to be a very healthy way of considering matters. Each of us should assess our own situation and make our decisions based on current situations and not based on hypotheticals of what if and second guessing ourselves about could have beens. right?

(05-28-2017 04:39 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-28-2017 04:15 AM)GlobalMan Wrote:  

(05-28-2017 03:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-26-2017 03:17 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Relevant

[image of guy with towel and $2,500 BTC price]

Gotta consider that a kind of trolling post, no?

Whether you are correct or not that a price dump might be imminent, there is no substance there, and it just seems to be attempting to make fun of the views of other people... without any substantive discussion...

A picture might be worth a thousand words, but if it is provocation, then what? Is that helpful?

What is that supposed to mean?

Quote:Are you talking about bitcoin price?

No. The chart is clearly labeled, and is up to date.

Quote:Are you expecting further down at this point? Are you expecting a trend reversal at this point? Currently, we are certainly in a bull trend with a decent correction.

Regarding the referenced chart, or with bitcoin?

As far as bitcoin, I do not expect any further significant downward movement, though nothing is impossible. Hopefully the people wanting to buy did so in the last couple days.

With ETH I expect it back up around $220 by Thurs/Fri. Though, some of that depends on bitcoin, unfortunately.

We should know by Tuesday morning what is likely to happen.

(05-26-2017 09:30 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I've been looking at charts from the last couple Bitcoin bubbles, particularly Nov 2013. Once the price hits that hockey stick exponential curve moment, there's always one last correction (normally big, just like today's) before the biggest jump upwards.

My prediction is that over the next few weeks Bitcoin hits at least $3k, likely shoots right past it. I'm a bit worried about my stops going through when/if there's a big crash after, so my plan is to start buying up ETH with my BTC as the price increases (hopefully Ethereum consolidates while Bitcoin goes up) as well as buying a handful of alts I think will do well even in a general crypto bear market (if that's where we're heading).

I'll likely pick up some Factom, Stratis, Waves, maybe a few ETH-based tokens like Golem and Auger, and definitely a BUNCH of Particl once it hits exchanges (although these ICO-type releases tend to pump and dump upon hitting the exchange, so I'll wait and see how that goes first).

I'll probably hold on to a Bitcoin or two long-term, but if I'm right and Bitcoin is about to top out I want to maximize my purchasing power while I can.

My biggest worry at the moment is, if Bitcoin continues along the same hype-cycle type pattern it's always followed, it's about to enter a down cycle and I'm not sure if it will pull the rest of crypto along with it. I'm too scared to sell my other holdings in case crypto as a whole keeps growing, so I might just have to HODL my other coins and hope for the best.

Overall, I think that you are correct about bitcoin likely to go into the supra $3k territory.. and then we will need to see from there how far up it goes.. I personally think $4k is pretty decent likelihood, there is some chance for $5k and less of a chance to break above $5k but not insubstantial.

At this point, I don't personally see any need to buy a bunch of other cryptos, but there could be some decent chances with those, and surely some of those could get pumped longer than bitcoin and even possibly take over some of the attention for a while... even though I think that there are quite a few of them that are more vulnerable to crash than bitcoin.. but I know several RVF guys generally disagree with me about that, so to each his own, and I am certainly not competing with anyone except myself.. and that is difficult enough.

Oh yeah.. one more point about bitcoin could be that we are in a kind of early 2013 period, in which there are two bubbles in a year or a fairly short period of time.. so we could be in the beginning stages of the first bubble and then the second bubble could take BTC to $20k or beyond... Really, I don't know, but that is a possibility that should be considered too. Regarding the alts, they do not have as long of a history to figure out if some of these 1 month, 6 month and couple of year (ETH) projects are going to have staying power. I am kind of to the point of conceding that ETH seems to have gone beyond the "play thing" stage, but most of my concession comes from the amount of development and attraction that it has - even though there are likely some centralization issues that could cause serious issues - but we will see how ETH plays out and the multitude of coins that seem to be hinging themselves to the ETH train..

So when you say that ETH depends on BTC, BTC also depends partly on ETH and some of the hype going on in the crypto space to figure out what is possible and what is probable - and certainly there are going to be variations of our personal conclusion in those regards.

Here's a new strategy I'm using to take advantage of this volatility.

Let's say I have 10 bitcoins (not using real numbers). I want to keep a large portion of my holdings, but if I hold everything, never selling nor buying, then I don't make money off the volatility.

So let's say I want to keep 70% of my BTC and play with the rest, I'll set my buy and sell limits like this -- assuming the current BTC price is $2000.

Sell 1 BTC at $2800
Sell 1 BTC at $2600
Sell 1 BTC at $2400
-----
Buy 1 BTC at $1600
Buy 1 BTC at $1400
Buy 1 BTC at $1200

Notice I don't put in any orders between 1600 and 2400 because I don't spend much time on the trading platform, nor would I want to. So I prefer to allow for some degree of volatility without executing my buy and sell orders. But if the market REALLY moves, then my buy or sell orders will execute.

Thoughts?

(05-27-2017 07:05 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  I hope a DCB happens. That would be the time to start buying them up. This is exactly what I was waiting for. Blockchain technology is absolutely the future.

I take it that you are talking about DCB = dead cat bounce?

O.k... We have already experienced about a 30% correction from $2,760 to $1,850 - and I would not rule out one more correction below $1,850 - or maybe a retesting of $1,850 - and that could be termed as a double bottom - which would then project prices upwards.

Guys are in a different place if they have not invested at all in comparison to if they have some stake in the game... but in either case, it can be a pretty decent practice to buy on dips - even if you only buy a small portion of the total funds that you have available... Buying some is a kind of hedge - just in case the price does not go down any further than it already did upon the dip.

33% is a really fucking good dip, even though it does seem to have followed a 3x upsurge.

At this point, if there is another leg down, gosh.. I cannot see much below $1500, even though $1200 is possible, $1000 is a stretch and $800 would be a really big stretch.

On the other hand, if there is some really bad news, then the lower numbers do become more possible than they would under normal correction scenarios.

Personally I would be o.k. with $1500 or even $1200 as a third leg of a dip, but if the correction goes below $1200, I might start to become a bit nervous - even though it is true that we are at $890 only a couple of months ago, believe it or not.

(05-27-2017 07:39 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Still waiting for independent reserve to verify me. I plan to put 10k into BTC/ETC and immediately move it to Poloniex where I will buy up the various alt coins. Once BTC stabilizes at 800-1500 (I think the price will drop further in the coming weeks).

After educating myself further I believe crypto-currency isn't a bubble. At least BTC will stand the test of time where in 2020 and beyond it will still be around and be able to buy you a lambo. Seems like a better bet than fiat currency that loses value by 4% or more each year.

Sure, we are each entitled to our opinion, but $800 to $1500 seems a bit of a pie in the sky- even though I understand that we were at $890 about 2 months ago.. and we were at less than $1500 less than a month ago.

Sure, I may be eating crow - because I do not expect those prices under any kind of normal circumstances... sure if there is some unexpected negative news, then under those kinds of circumstances, I can understand such price possibilities.

(05-28-2017 05:18 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  Here's a new strategy I'm using to take advantage of this volatility.

Let's say I have 10 bitcoins (not using real numbers). I want to keep a large portion of my holdings, but if I hold everything, never selling nor buying, then I don't make money off the volatility.

So let's say I want to keep 70% of my BTC and play with the rest, I'll set my buy and sell limits like this -- assuming the current BTC price is $2000.

Sell 1 BTC at $2800
Sell 1 BTC at $2600
Sell 1 BTC at $2400
-----
Buy 1 BTC at $1600
Buy 1 BTC at $1400
Buy 1 BTC at $1200

Notice I don't put in any orders between 1600 and 2400 because I don't spend much time on the trading platform, nor would I want to. So I prefer to allow for some degree of volatility without executing my buy and sell orders. But if the market REALLY moves, then my buy or sell orders will execute.

Thoughts?

That is a decent hypothetical plan.

1st: On a technical level don't put your buy or sell orders at round numbers because you actually do want your orders to fill and not almost fill. One of the worst feelings is having orders that were within pennies or even within dollars of filling.. and then the market changes direction. So with your hypothetical numbers, you would sell 1 BTC at 2393.82, and you would buy at 1 BTC at $1,611.54 (something like that)

2nd: It does appear from your set up that you could be happy for the price to move either way, but under your current plan you are going to run out of BTC at $3400 - so I don't know if it is good to sell that many of your coins, unless you really are comfortable with that kind of a price projection as the top of the BTC market. Maybe you do? Maybe you do believe that $3400 is the top of BTC prices in this cycle?

You may want to reconsider projecting a lower number because ultimately and ideally, if you believe in the long term fundamentals of an asset, you do not want to ever run out of either BTC or fiat, so in that regard, sometimes it may be better (even if a bit more confusing because it is not round numbers) to work in percentages rather than in absolute quantities of BTC. So currently your starting percentage seems to be to sell 10% of your BTC holdings for every 10% rise in BTC prices. I currently am doing about 1% for every 10%, but maybe you would be more comfortable with a number in between my number and your number .. such as 5% for every 10% rise?

Anyhow percentages are better so that you do not run out of either coins or dollars - unless of course you really are just wanting to get in and out and you are attempting to predict the market direction - which I personally try not to do because I am investing long term rather than betting exactly about where the price is going to be at any particular point in time (even though I do predict and bet on the margins the large portion of my strategy does not rely on me being correct - except in the long term that the price is going up). So even if you stuck with percentages, such as 10% for every 10% rise, you would still not run out of coins - but your quantity of BTC holdings would be significantly reduced over time.

(05-28-2017 06:15 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-28-2017 05:18 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  Here's a new strategy I'm using to take advantage of this volatility.

Let's say I have 10 bitcoins (not using real numbers). I want to keep a large portion of my holdings, but if I hold everything, never selling nor buying, then I don't make money off the volatility.

So let's say I want to keep 70% of my BTC and play with the rest, I'll set my buy and sell limits like this -- assuming the current BTC price is $2000.

Sell 1 BTC at $2800
Sell 1 BTC at $2600
Sell 1 BTC at $2400
-----
Buy 1 BTC at $1600
Buy 1 BTC at $1400
Buy 1 BTC at $1200

Notice I don't put in any orders between 1600 and 2400 because I don't spend much time on the trading platform, nor would I want to. So I prefer to allow for some degree of volatility without executing my buy and sell orders. But if the market REALLY moves, then my buy or sell orders will execute.

Thoughts?

That is a decent hypothetical plan.

1st: On a technical level don't put your buy or sell orders at round numbers because you actually do want your orders to fill and not almost fill. One of the worst feelings is having orders that were within pennies or even within dollars of filling.. and then the market changes direction. So with your hypothetical numbers, you would sell 1 BTC at 2393.82, and you would buy at 1 BTC at $1,611.54 (something like that)

2nd: It does appear from your set up that you could be happy for the price to move either way, but under your current plan you are going to run out of BTC at $3400 - so I don't know if it is good to sell that many of your coins, unless you really are comfortable with that kind of a price projection as the top of the BTC market. Maybe you do? Maybe you do believe that $3400 is the top of BTC prices in this cycle?

You may want to reconsider projecting a lower number because ultimately and ideally, if you believe in the long term fundamentals of an asset, you do not want to ever run out of either BTC or fiat, so in that regard, sometimes it may be better (even if a bit more confusing because it is not round numbers) to work in percentages rather than in absolute quantities of BTC. So currently your starting percentage seems to be to sell 10% of your BTC holdings for every 10% rise in BTC prices. I currently am doing about 1% for every 10%, but maybe you would be more comfortable with a number in between my number and your number .. such as 5% for every 10% rise?

Anyhow percentages are better so that you do not run out of either coins or dollars - unless of course you really are just wanting to get in and out and you are attempting to predict the market direction - which I personally try not to do because I am investing long term rather than betting exactly about where the price is going to be at any particular point in time (even though I do predict and bet on the margins the large portion of my strategy does not rely on me being correct - except in the long term that the price is going up). So even if you stuck with percentages, such as 10% for every 10% rise, you would still not run out of coins - but your quantity of BTC holdings would be significantly reduced over time.

It's all hypothetical, but yes right now I have 10% orders in these 10% increments. As I accumulate more coins however, I might make my orders smaller.

As for $3400, I haven't even gone that far. I put in orders where I think prices can realistically go in the short term, as low as $1200 or as high as $2800. That said, I do think we are more likely to hit $2800 than $1200 -- just because BTC is the gateway coin to other cryptos and there is more than enough support to keep us above $1200, but on the other hand I really don't expect $3400 any time soon. We tried to make a run at 3k, only to have the price collapse back to 2k. The support isn't there... YET.

I could be wrong but I just don't see it yet. Might change within a month or even a week.