To second some of what YardDog said - I know pinays who work in call centers who take taxis everywhere they go or own cars. The greater mass of poor people in the phils can not afford to do that.

I think it is tough to compare the Phils as a country to other asian countries. Comparing a land mass like india to an archipelago is like comparing apples and oranges. It is easier to compare cities, for example Cebu to Bangalore 30 years ago.

I personally know many intelligent and ambitious pinoys and indians. But personally I think that the pinoy culture will help them significantly. Think about this: I think the going estimate is that about half of indians think that it is spiritually and physically repugnant to use a toilet. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-03...-them.html) (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-17362837)

Some of the arguments against the growth of the cities in the phils are the long lines of "the cities can not support more people so more people won't go there". I think this is a fallacy. If this were true the cities would not already be overcrowded and the roads would not be insanely congested for hours every day.

On the pervasiveness of technology. Yes most pinays have cell phones, but imagine a world where there is free country wide broadband (like Obama wants to do). That will have a huge impact on the culture

Honestly I do not think I know what the Phils will be like in 15 years but I am sure that it will be very different than it is today. I don't think we should assume that it will be there for us in the future. When you see an opportunity now, take it now.

(01-20-2015 12:28 AM)bigbait Wrote:  Honestly I do not think I know what the Phils will be like in 15 years but I am sure that it will be very different than it is today. I don't think we should assume that it will be there for us in the future. When you see an opportunity now, take it now.

Agreed.

The whole "come back when you're 60" and everything will be exactly the same argument is a pipe dream.

Guys are acting like the country has to eliminate poverty and/or become an economic powerhouse for the sexual marketplace to shift. It's already changing.

Here's something I just came across on a travel blog written by a Filipina about working in Deutsche Bank in Manila:

http://theeagertraveller.com/2014/07/06/...ders-look/

Another thing I read recently was about the port of Manila, how backed up it was. They have a program for new port infrastructure, though. They won't be able to get manufacturing going without that.

I think everyone's pointing out development stuff that's accurate but there's two things missing in the debate:

1) The TIME FRAMES in which predicted growth will happen.
2) How specifically will the development affect this POOSY PARADISE.

TIME FRAMES:
If you look at 5% annual growth as cited in an economy, that's not HUGE in 5 years, but in 15 years it IS.

In 5 years-- there will be a lot of improvement; but the significant drain on the upwardly mobile as they send money back to the family in the provinces will prevent the whole country from completely transforming.

This is a phenomenon I've witnessed again and again from personal stories told by bright girls working their asses off who could clearly reach mid-level manager jobs in an economy like the USA and be earning 60K+.

It not only encourages laziness in the provinces, like a familial welfare system, but it holds back the worker in the city sending money back, because they can't take a break for education -- if they do, everyone back at the farm practically starves.

I know one girl who is working 50+ hours a week in a convenience store, I'm experienced at administering intelligence tests and she is at least a 115 verbal IQ.

Just this one girl's neglected education is a HUGE waste of intellect by the country , and sadly will never be regained, she is being exhausted and burnt out by this job-- they had her working 24 hour shifts!!! In the store for 24 hours nonstop until she called their bluff and said she was going to quit. Now she just works 9x6; 54 hours a week.

However, in 20 years, I think Major Phils cities will be unrecognizable due to growth as the citations from economists here predict. I was just talking to an American expat at a secondary mall in Cebu, and he said the whole mile of commercial street south of the mall went from mere shacks to thriving small businesses, albeit in rather fragile construction over the last 10 years.

There isn't a significant aggressive criminal/Islamic nut class like in parts of Africa that will keep the largely cooperative and genial Filipinos from improving the country.

Also the BPO that a poster referred to helps to pull along other areas of the economy. For instance, there is thing here like in Mexico, I don't know the exact word but is like Mañana. If someone buys a motorcycle, it take a couple months to get a temporary plate. I went to get mine and asked how long to get the real plate. The worker in the dealer was bit embarrassed and quietly said "About a year."
But the point is she was embarrassed-- through her contact with Western business practices (BPO) people are realizing how crazy some inefficiencies are and are improving them. Immigration has a fairly efficient process to collect money from us and watch that no one who is wanted ditches out.

POOSY PARADISE:
My verdict on this is somewhat different I actually threw a very cute, very smart girl ( estimate IQ 120-125) out of my apartment because she started saying how buying a house for her parents was her top priority. A significant number of girls are judging you on how much money YOU are going to spend on their parents. A no go for me.

I actually helped her analyze the finances affecting her decision. She said that by taking a hotel worker course for 6 months, then working overseas she'd make about $1500 per month. That was a better deal for her than marrying an old guy like me, who sure as hell wasn't going to put $500 a month into her parents house fund like she would.

So non-Young Alphas are already losing out to economic development, and The Philippines is the second to last bastion of Cheap Asian Labor. I guess only Cambodia's left, and they don't have English.

Filipino's polite and genial demeanor is tolerable by Western customers, unlike someone from rural China or most of Africa.

There are ZILLIONS of hotel management students, I see them everywhere here, and the prettiest ones will get desk clerk jobs somewhere and won't need old guys.

If you're young and white, you still can do great here, and older can do well, but it shifting. Just not right away.

However, if you're 35 and planning on coming here in 20 years, it might not work.

TLR: If you'r not an Ivy League frat boy or at least nouveau riche or a natural, save your money and get out of the Anglosphere soon if you can.

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  However, in 20 years, I think Major Phils cities will be unrecognizable due to growth as the citations from economists here predict. I was just talking to an American expat at a secondary mall in Cebu, and he said the whole mile of commercial street south of the mall went from mere shacks to thriving small businesses, albeit in rather fragile construction over the last 10 years.

To add more perspective to this, Davao currently has 5 condominiums, most of them put up within the past few years. There are at least 5 more now under construction, most of them at least twice as tall as the existing buildings.

So the city will be going from no condos to 10 in within 5 to 10 years. Not to mention the malls, business parks/centers, hotels, etc.

It's nice to get some contrarian views on here I do appreciate it even if some of the arguments lean more towards the.. emotional side. . I'm definitely one of the few lone bears on here when it comes to the P.I. economy. I've just been in Asia too long and have been involved with different investment in the region. The next big things come and go quickly. Who remembers Malaysia as the next Tiger?

In my opinion the Philippines has severe problems on the macro level. The politics and bureaucracy is bad even compared with Indonesia and Thailand. It's just not quite as bad as let's say Cambodia or Myanmar.. Much of the land is wasted and the population is a huge barrier for its developmental growth. The people are not an untapped resource when you have so much crippling poverty living on the fringe. As expats we tend to live in a relatively insular bubble so we see and interact with a growing middle class and immediately think prosperity is on the horizon. We also tend to live in the wealthiest or fastest growing regions in the country. The real estate boom is not just a Philippines phenomenon though it's been going on in nearly every country in asia starting from around 2005. That is not nation specific growth..it's region wide and based on a multitude of factors besides local or new found industrial productivity.

I'm not an econ-nazi or hardcore chicken little though I realize projections are ultimately foolish because times and conditions change quickly. It's been real interesting reading the thoughts of some guys here who operate in those industries.

I do think a great portion of the economy in the Philippines is a paper tiger economy. You just can't compare Philippines to the Philippines you need to see how it interacts and grows with the rest of SEA. The Philippines is a cog in the wheel in the bigger picture in the region. It grows, rises, and falls according to the whims of greater geopolitical and economic powers. I'm sure some of you will vehemently disagree and that's alright. Some of my views on the region are based on How Asia Works by Joe Studwell who explains it in more detail than I ever could but a lot of it is from actual long term business dealing in the region not just by me but by family and friends too.

(01-20-2015 03:52 AM)Enigma Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  However, in 20 years, I think Major Phils cities will be unrecognizable due to growth as the citations from economists here predict. I was just talking to an American expat at a secondary mall in Cebu, and he said the whole mile of commercial street south of the mall went from mere shacks to thriving small businesses, albeit in rather fragile construction over the last 10 years.

To add more perspective to this, Davao currently has 5 condominiums, most of them put up within the past few years. There are at least 5 more now under construction, most of them at least twice as tall as the existing buildings.

So the city will be going from no condos to 10 in within 5 to 10 years. Not to mention the malls, business parks/centers, hotels, etc.

OFW remittances is a big driver of the construction industry in the Philippines. Plus condos are the only property a foreigner can own outright.

http://www.mb.com.ph/ofws-fuel-philippin...ty-market/

"OFWs fuel Philippine property market"

Quote:One of the reasons I maintain that economic growth can be sustained at 6 to 7% annually GDP-wise, whoever is elected as next President of the Republic of the Philippines, is the predictable rise of the remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWS) of 5 to 6% annually for at least the next decade. Already at $26 billion (including undocumented remittances) today, this figure will soon exceed $30 billion annually and, together with the earnings from BPO/KPO, account for almost 20% of the Philippine GDP within the next five years. These two sources of both foreign exchange earnings and employment have the greatest multiplier effects on the rapid growth of consumer-oriented industries, including consumer durables and housing.

Plus I read somewhere that 26 billion is the official figure for remittances. Another 30-40 percent on top of that is black market remittances that don't go through official channels. Still trying to find the article.

(01-20-2015 03:52 AM)Enigma Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  However, in 20 years, I think Major Phils cities will be unrecognizable due to growth as the citations from economists here predict. I was just talking to an American expat at a secondary mall in Cebu, and he said the whole mile of commercial street south of the mall went from mere shacks to thriving small businesses, albeit in rather fragile construction over the last 10 years.

To add more perspective to this, Davao currently has 5 condominiums, most of them put up within the past few years. There are at least 5 more now under construction, most of them at least twice as tall as the existing buildings.

So the city will be going from no condos to 10 in within 5 to 10 years. Not to mention the malls, business parks/centers, hotels, etc.

There is also an MRT light rail planned as well as a bridge between davao city and samal a island. I agree, in 15+ years this place will be unrecognizable. :thumb:

(01-20-2015 03:52 AM)Enigma Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  However, in 20 years, I think Major Phils cities will be unrecognizable due to growth as the citations from economists here predict. I was just talking to an American expat at a secondary mall in Cebu, and he said the whole mile of commercial street south of the mall went from mere shacks to thriving small businesses, albeit in rather fragile construction over the last 10 years.

To add more perspective to this, Davao currently has 5 condominiums, most of them put up within the past few years. There are at least 5 more now under construction, most of them at least twice as tall as the existing buildings.

So the city will be going from no condos to 10 in within 5 to 10 years. Not to mention the malls, business parks/centers, hotels, etc.

I know a half-Filipina girl in real estate in Japan. She told me that Davao is poised to be one of the hot spots for the future and companies are throwing in a lot of their chips in Mindanao.

Obviously it's not quite there yet, but it shows what can happen when you clean up violent crime and provide a stable environment for business to operate in.

Supporting the idea that Mindanao will be the place, not Luzon as I had thought:



But now:



Quote from attached essay from 2013:

Quote:For decades, the Philippines has been noted for its economic failures. Fifty years ago, it was ahead of South Korea on most economic indicators, and its relatively high levels of education and public health seemingly indicated a bright future. Misrule, corruption, and missed opportunities, however, took a heavy toll, as did a persistently high birthrate, leading many observers to dub the Philippines the “sick man of Asia.” As a result of such problems, the Philippines has had to export much of its labor force. Currently, more than 9 million Filipinos work abroad, many of whom (particularly nurses) are highly educated.
Over the past several years, however, the Philippine economy has regained its health, registering rapid expansion just as its neighbors have slumped. In the second quarter of 2013, the Philippine economy grew at an annual rate of 7.5 percent, roughly equal to that of China and far surpassing Indonesia (5.8 percent) Vietnam (5 percent), Malaysia (4.3 percent), and Thailand (2.8 percent). Current economic expansion, moreover, seems relatively well balanced, with strong gains in manufacturing, construction, and services. Business-processing outsourcing, however, has been the strongest sector.

Source: http://www.geocurrents.info/uncategorize...z3PNKh3XME

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  If someone buys a motorcycle, it take a couple months to get a temporary plate. I went to get mine and asked how long to get the real plate. The worker in the dealer was bit embarrassed and quietly said "About a year."

I never got a real plate for my motorcycle. Even after waiting a year. It just blew my mind how slow shit worked. Oh well, never had a problem with the police about it.

@El Chinito Loco

I actually agree with much of your assessment, as I said before. I'm mean, how could I argue against it? It's a fact this place is quite fucked up and Filipinos are going to have to make huge structural changes. I wouldn't say I'm bearish on the Phils either.

My bone to pick is with BPO. I was walking today thinking what sort of shape Manila would be in minus the 700,000-900,000 local jobs that pay 3x the minimum wage on average. How much more isolated would the country be? I do believe it's been a very good thing here and will have impacts far and wide. Is it ideal? Well, it's better than not having it booming but it doesn't address the structural issue. I get your point on this.

I've been here long enough to understand how corrupt it is, see the clanish behavior, experience the inefficiency firsthand, and understand how a huge mass of desperately poor people can cause problems at every level in society.

But it does seem like the Phils is having a moment. Also, a leadership change is coming. With it's 'Western' Asian culture, resources, etc., the country does have some unique advantages. We'll see if they can rise to the occasion and take advantage of them.

I read a summary of 'How Asia Works' and looks like a great read. I'll check it out. I like his position on agriculture. This something you mentioned and I really agree with. Field workers make a couple hundred pesos a day here yet food is double that of many other nations in Asia. If the Phils can't fix the building blocks sustaining 7% GDP growth seems unlikely.

Anyways, good discussion and I do appreciate the challenging viewpoints.

Me: I'm staying in an apartment in <neighborhood in Cebu>
Her:"DO YOU OWN OR RENT"

After seeing ten or so chicks here in the last couple months I've started to notice this question.

What the fuck is she, my financial advisor? I think I've spotted an extreme gold-digger tell. Of course they're all gold diggers if you're not a YoungTallCool God but this looks like full on planning-for-the-divorce-in-advance.

Anyone else run into this?

(01-20-2015 10:43 AM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

(01-20-2015 02:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  If someone buys a motorcycle, it take a couple months to get a temporary plate. I went to get mine and asked how long to get the real plate. The worker in the dealer was bit embarrassed and quietly said "About a year."

I never got a real plate for my motorcycle. Even after waiting a year. It just blew my mind how slow shit worked. Oh well, never had a problem with the police about it.

Did you go get the formal "temporary plate" at their DMV?

Were you able to sell the motorcycle with the temporary place OK?

This is really pretty pathetic. In The US as soon as you register your car in California the clerk reaches in a drawer and hands you your plate.

Now don't let me down, I DO expect some hate from you non-californians about my former home state, the one with the most patents of any state and now again the 7th largest economy in the world if it was a country. We just passed Russia and Italy. or Brazil , I forget.

While browsing earlier tonight, found this gem on FC:
Talk about delusional gold digger!
http://www.filipinocupid.com/en/profile/...ID/6008742

Anyone in MNL currently wants to take a shot at this lil sweetheart?

(01-21-2015 12:05 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  Me: I'm staying in an apartment in <neighborhood in Cebu>
Her:"DO YOU OWN OR RENT"

After seeing ten or so chicks here in the last couple months I've started to notice this question.

What the fuck is she, my financial advisor? I think I've spotted an extreme gold-digger tell. Of course they're all gold diggers if you're not a YoungTallCool God but this looks like full on planning-for-the-divorce-in-advance.

Anyone else run into this?

"Own or rent" is just getting an idea of how permanently you're staying.

Though I have run into chicks who try to promote the condos they work for on dating sites

Almost every girl I've ever had over asks "how much is the rent here?" as one of the first things she says, without fail. I used to be annoyed by this, but then I thought about it...people do that in the US too. It's just a curiosity thing.

(01-21-2015 03:37 AM)Vacancier Permanent Wrote:  While browsing earlier tonight, found this gem on FC:
Talk about delusional gold digger!
http://www.filipinocupid.com/en/profile/...ID/6008742

Anyone in MNL currently wants to take a shot at this lil sweetheart?

Yecch. I think I saw her on Burgos Street once. Nothing special, but body looks good.

It would be funny if someone put on a high-roller show for her, banged her and then left her with a tab at a restaurant.

(01-21-2015 12:05 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  [snip] . . . . .
Of course they're all gold diggers if you're not a YoungTallCool God . . . .

It's tough for old guys like us to really elicit desire over a long term from young women in their 20s through our appearance and game, even if we are in good shape. You can get lucky with daddy-issue girls.

When they are in their 30s and have baby rabies it's easier. The hamster running in their brain takes a different direction and suddenly Old Man is not so bad looking. Even there, women are going to be about extracting resources and benefits, one way or another, but the blatant immediate mercenary shit gives way to hoping for a long term investment.

(01-21-2015 12:08 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  Did you go get the formal "temporary plate" at their DMV?

Were you able to sell the motorcycle with the temporary place OK?

I had the temporary plate that the dealership gives you and you see it on a ton of motorbikes. White plate that I think says temporary plate or something like that. I never went to the DMV.

I was able to sell the motorcycle with temporary plates. I had all my documentation on the bike and a buyer who had bought several motorcycles before and knew what he was doing. If I was selling to another newbie it would have been difficult. The new owner is responsible for going to the dealership where I bought the bike and showing them the documents that he is the new owner. Then when the dealership finally gets the plates they will contact him.

I was mostly concerned with the police reaction to not having a plate as I drove all over Luzon. Seems to be common knowledge about how long it takes to get a plate and no police ever gave me any problems about it.

Just a quick note on the police. Every time I got pulled over at a check point the police were incredibly nice about the whole thing. Several times I ended up just talking with the officer for 5 minutes just having a pleasant chat. What a change as the police in Thailand and Indonesia where a pain in the ass who I couldn't get away from fast enough.

(01-21-2015 03:37 AM)Vacancier Permanent Wrote:  While browsing earlier tonight, found this gem on FC:
Talk about delusional gold digger!
http://www.filipinocupid.com/en/profile/...ID/6008742

Anyone in MNL currently wants to take a shot at this lil sweetheart?

This is what happens when a string of foreign guys wines/dines/supplicates too long to a filipina honey. I bet her attitude was better 9-10 years ago. Very fuckable body but she's even got one of those semi-scowl faces that screams conniving hoebag. Any man that falls for this deserves what's coming.

If she's really a P. Burgos street native though then maybe she was always like that though heh.

(01-21-2015 07:51 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

(01-21-2015 03:37 AM)Vacancier Permanent Wrote:  While browsing earlier tonight, found this gem on FC:
Talk about delusional gold digger!
http://www.filipinocupid.com/en/profile/...ID/6008742

Anyone in MNL currently wants to take a shot at this lil sweetheart?

This is what happens when a string of foreign guys wines/dines/supplicates too long to a filipina honey. I bet her attitude was better 9-10 years ago. Very fuckable body but she's even got one of those semi-scowl faces that screams conniving hoebag. Any man that falls for this deserves what's coming.

If she's really a P. Burgos street native though then maybe she was always like that though heh.

Do I see nip in that third photo or do my eyes deceive me? jajaja

Guys forget about FC and try Tinder.

The difference is huge.

Speaking of FC, how do I search in FC if i want to message girls who live in the Fort? FC lets you search in Manila, Makati and other cities/municipalities in that region, but I don't even know where Fort Bonifacio is located. One of the girls from previous trip told me that both Makati and Manila claim it or something.

Chaos: great that Tinder works for you. When I was there, I had some technical problems with Tinder and just ran out of girls to swipe. I downgraded to an older version of Tinder, so will try it this time again.

(01-21-2015 11:26 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  Speaking of FC, how do I search in FC if i want to message girls who live in the Fort? FC lets you search in Manila, Makati and other cities/municipalities in that region, but I don't even know where Fort Bonifacio is located. One of the girls from previous trip told me that both Makati and Manila claim it or something.

Chaos: great that Tinder works for you. When I was there, I had some technical problems with Tinder and just ran out of girls to swipe. I downgraded to an older version of Tinder, so will try it this time again.

EDIT: See JJJames post.

You're right, Tinder seems to have moved to a daily rationing of matches. For a local this is better but I can see for guys that want to swoop in for a week or two it's not ideal. But worry not, there are thousands of girls on it here and plenty of pussy to go around. Start matching now if you're coming soon.

You can try logging in and out to get more matches too. Or grab a bunch of numbers in a day or two, delete and repeat as necessary. New accounts go to the top. I delete every so often and start fresh.

Seems to me Tinder gets better by the month in Manila. This next year or so might as good as good as it gets as girls try it out for the first time. Sort of like Tinder in the USA a couple years back. It is packed full of dudes here too, but 90% are Filipinos according to girls I know, which of course makes it easy to stand out.

(01-22-2015 12:06 AM)YardDog Wrote:  I think with FC you can only choose Manila for searching. There are no options for Makati or Taguig. With that in mind it really doesn't matter much because it pulls in girls from far and wide. I think 50 miles is the lowest radius. If you look at their profile however you'll see listed the specific city they live in. Copy and paste that into maps to see how close it is to the Fort. You can also keyword search but not too many girls on FC (more on Tinder) live in the Fort so I'm not sure if it's helpful. And, people call the Fort, BGC, Global City, etc., so it might be hard to get exact matches.

No - you can select Makati. And you can select only IN makati, not within 50 km. You do it by selecting the dash. This really, really helps cut down on the women who can't make it makati because they're too far.

Screenshot:

(01-22-2015 12:22 AM)JJJames Wrote:  

(01-22-2015 12:06 AM)YardDog Wrote:  I think with FC you can only choose Manila for searching. There are no options for Makati or Taguig. With that in mind it really doesn't matter much because it pulls in girls from far and wide. I think 50 miles is the lowest radius. If you look at their profile however you'll see listed the specific city they live in. Copy and paste that into maps to see how close it is to the Fort. You can also keyword search but not too many girls on FC (more on Tinder) live in the Fort so I'm not sure if it's helpful. And, people call the Fort, BGC, Global City, etc., so it might be hard to get exact matches.

No - you can select Makati. And you can select only IN makati, not within 50 km. You do it by selecting the dash. This really, really helps cut down on the women who can't make it makati because they're too far.

Screenshot:

Ah, good call. My bad.

I think I would still pick 50 miles though. I mean, what if the girl lives in Taguig, Pasay, Pasig, QC, etc., which are bordering Makati? Do they not show at all?