Post: #101

(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

Post: #102

(01-26-2014 03:35 AM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

That is my read too. Yanukovich is weak right now. There are corroborated reports that the military will not support the President. Many of the regional Berkut (special police) are defecting, especially in the west. It seems like he has lost the support of his financial backers as well. My guess is Putin will also give up on him in short order.

The offer of cabinet posts was (besides being I believe illegal, outside his powers) a trap. The opposition would have gotten responsibility and no authority and it would have begun a political cat and mouse game. Yatsenyuk was right to reject it (although he left the door open).

BTW. CNN is showing nothing as far as I can tell.

My friends in Ukraine have turned me on to espreso.tv. Also Channel 5 is no longer having their feed scrambled by the govt. I heard they were live last night when Klischko negotiated the release of the trapped cadets in Ukraine House at 4 am.

Post: #103

This is what the protestors who threw out the militia from Ukraine house last night look like. I don't think these guys need Return of Kings to remind them that they are men. Not exactly our idea of a western "protestor".

I thought it was an interesting picture, given what some have been saying about both sides in this conflict.

https://twitter.com/dpeleschuk/status/42...20/photo/1

Post: #104

(01-26-2014 06:00 AM)rastignac Wrote:  

(01-26-2014 03:35 AM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

That is my read too. Yanukovich is weak right now. There are corroborated reports that the military will not support the President. Many of the regional Berkut (special police) are defecting, especially in the west. It seems like he has lost the support of his financial backers as well. My guess is Putin will also give up on him in short order.

The offer of cabinet posts was (besides being I believe illegal, outside his powers) a trap. The opposition would have gotten responsibility and no authority and it would have begun a political cat and mouse game. Yatsenyuk was right to reject it (although he left the door open).

BTW. CNN is showing nothing as far as I can tell.

My friends in Ukraine have turned me on to espreso.tv. Also Channel 5 is no longer having their feed scrambled by the govt. I heard they were live last night when Klischko negotiated the release of the trapped cadets in Ukraine House at 4 am.

CNN was used as a figure of speech......that said, they have broadcasted it of course as it is "news of the day" just like BBC, DW, etc. Coverage is however, limited and basic, obviously not as extensive as local sources on the ground.....

Post: #105

This is the best reporting I have seen from the protest site, on the ground. Describes what is going on without a lot of the geopolitical spin.

http://zyalt.livejournal.com/984735.html

Post: #106

(01-25-2014 09:27 PM)DaveR Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 04:11 PM)CarCrashKid Wrote:  Relative to the West, things are much cheaper. Hence why a lot of men in this forum, intend or tend to make their money in the Anglosphere then set sail for the Eastern shores.

As someone who has lived in the country for almost a decade, I can tell you 'things' are certainly not cheaper. I doubt you've ever been to either country, but if you have then you are not comparing like-for-like goods and services. Bread that is 1/3 by weight made up of sawdust is not better value, it's only cheaper due to its lower quality. Local produce is of very poor quality, hence the lower prices. Imported goods, even basic ones like bananas, are significantly more expensive than anywhere in the EU or the US.

Your comment about oligarchs 'bringing in money' is ridiculous. Oligarchs make their money by stealing State assets and resources, and siphoning money from the State budget. The idea that they then live cheaply in Ukraine and Russia is, frankly, idiotic. For starters, most of them spend little time in Russia and Ukraine. While in the West, they keep up appearances by buying the most expensive real estate in London, New York, and the French Riviera, by commissioning the world's most expensive yachts, and personally sponsoring sports teams. And you think they're on a budget?

"the spread of communism" - actually, what Russia and Ukraine have now is unchecked capitalism; the opposite of what you're trying to claim.

So have you been to Ukraine or Russia?

What DaveR details above is all very true. Geez don't get me started on how expensive Moscow is!

Post: #107

There are Now reports that opposition protesters tried to take buildings in Odessa, Zaporozhye , and Dnepropetrovsk. They think they bused in protesters from the West.
I am pretty sure every city has opposition groups..but just yesterday thousands in Odessa gathered supporting the gov't and urging that they protect them from the opposition protesters. I wonder if the media is reporting it wrong..and the protesters are pro gov't ones lol.

Post: #108

The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

Post: #109

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

SADLY...THEY PROBABLY WILL WIN. In Russain culture people always vote for those who are deemed manly/strong. I think many of Yanukovych's supporters see him as weak since he hasn't ended the protest. They will Not vote for a weak man. I think maybe the opposition knows this. They might be attempting to win by default.
Military action and martial law should have been declared(same as would happen in USA)
Interestingly... their last president was a western candidate and he did a HORRIBLE job.
I don't think there will be a real civil war because the Eastern and Southern Ukrainians are not looking to fight..they are actually busy working in REAL jobs in industry and don't have the time to protest. It will be like it was in 2005. The opposition gov't will make all types of rules and regulations that BENEFIT the western Ukrainians or Ukrainian culture and the people in the EAST and South will ignore them.Those cities will continue to keep most of the profits from industry and in 4 years the Western folks will be sick and tired of their leaders promises.
The Western gov't also has a VERY big problem also. If they take trade agreement with Europe, I believe one of the expectations is that Ukraine will have to adopt allowing dual citizenship. A large majority of East and South Ukraine would receive Russian passports. That sets the stage for actually more meddling from Russia.Russia has a policy of protecting its citizenry around the world.The oppositions attempts to get further from Russia MIGHT actually bring the BEAR closest!

Post: #110

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

Answer below... fat fingered an initial post by accident.

Post: #111

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

It looks like Viktor Fedorovych still has some fight in him (he may go out in flames or use flames to hang on for a while), but even in Russia's eyes and in the eyes of the east, he has been weakened. He is politically dead.

More than a few road bumps ahead. Looking into my crystal ball, here is a wild guess:

<crystal ball>

- The country need to revisit the constitution and they need a transitional mechanism to do it. The kind of centralization of power in the presidency since 2010 (Yanukovich's election) did not work well for anyone but his Party of Regions and his sponsors, short term. I believe it is why he may lose power. There may be some attempt to actually rewrite the constitution rather than amend it. I hear people talking about creating some kind of federal republic. It makes little sense to have appointed Party of Regions governors in Lviv for example, as as was allowed under the current system. It would be like allowing Obama to appoint a democratic governor for a Republican stronghold like Texas and siphoning off money. Texans would be pissed.

- The country seems broke. None of these Euromaidan events will change this. The hrivna will drop. Trouble will brew when folks don't get their pensions. Europe, US and Russia relation questions will often be about money. The biggest challenges will be financial.

- Corruption. There will be investigation into Yanukovich, the party, and the companies he and his family is associated with, corruption. Klitschko will run on this and probably focus on it. I believe he has one redeeming trait; he will be able to resist corruption.

- Euromaidan clampdown tactics. Not sure if kidnapping wounded protestors from hospitals and killing them in the woods is legal. I doubt it. There will be some attempt to bring people to justice for violence against the people, especially around the use of paid Titushkis and other mercenaries dressed as Berkut. A lot of the opposition believes (and is trying to prove) many of the militia dressed as Berkut were actually Russians from Russia, either mercenaries or special forces. The country will need to work through this stuff.

- Timashenko. What do they do with her? Does she re-enter politics?

- Ruling coalition will be difficult given all the interests. Svaboda was instrumental in Euromaidan but will unlikely be able to win the vote and lead the country. Their leader is kind of scary. They will be demanding and difficult to align in any government run by someone like Klitschko.

- Generational change. Yanukovich will be the last Soviet style politician in Ukraine. The new generation has known themselves to be Ukrainian through their adult life. The only region that would prefer to be in Russia is arguably Crimea.

- Ukrainian national issues like language, which were so prominent in 2004. I don't think they will be a priority. They force us to speak Ukrainian at McDonald's and listen to bad Ukrainian overdubs (when everyone speaks Russian) at the movies in Odessa. I am not sure what else they could do.

</crystal ball>

I am going to Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv (places know well) for business next month. It'll be interesting to hear what people are saying. (Yes people do real work and business in western Ukraine! I had a call with some today, on a Sunday even.).

Post: #112

I have it on good authority that Zhytomyr, a city of 300,000 one hour west of Kiev, is in the hands of protesters.

The reason that these smaller cities are controlled by protesters is because, in their attempt to control the large crowds at Maidan, the Ukrainian government bused police in from other towns. These towns are then, in a sense, left defenseless.

So in the case of Zhytomyr (as with many other smaller cities), a small group of protesters went to city hall and told the mayor that, because he was a member of the ruling party, he needed to step down. All of their demands were met. They meet in the government buildings daily and the government officials as well as the police are afraid of them.

Post: #113

^^ so in essence they FORCE resignations by threat?sounds like terrorism to me!
Funny, last time I was in Vinnitsa it was Russian centric. My wife says the problem is the smaller cities and villages in the oblast are Western centric.
Anyway this is a good time the buy things priced in Hrv since the value is falling.Anyone think it get to 10 to the dollar?

Post: #114

My 2 cents on costs: Odessa, Ukraine versus Silicon Valley, CA.

Housing: much cheaper. (about 25% of CA)
Domestic Seasonal Food: much cheaper than Silicon Valley (about 25%-50% of CA). Much better quality, imo, non-GMO, better produce, better meat, not processed.
Imported Food: more expensive by 25-50% (try to avoid it)
Imported goods (clothing, electronics): more expensive by 25-50%
Restaurants: a bit cheaper (about 75% of CA)
Service (internet, phone, TV): cheaper (fro 10% to 50%)

I bring in stuff purchased on Amazon (clothes, electronics) on a regular basis. With a weaker Hrivna they will become even more expensive.

Post: #115

Post: #116

Interesting take on it!
http://www.opednews.com/articles/How-the...6-811.html

Post: #117

When I was in Ukraine this summer (pre-protests), I heard a lot of grumbling from the people I met about the government and their bleak outlook for Ukraine's future. Most of them simply wanted to leave the country (90 percent for New York City). I guess it's no surprise then that within a few months it has boiled over into an actual revolution.

The problem with the EU's offer to Ukraine is that it is misunderstood by the majority of Ukrainians as an offer of ascendency to EU membership. It is not. IMHO, Ukraine will never attain economic parity with other ex-USSR EU members such as Poland. Most Ukrainians I met offered this assessment as well.

If nothing else, they will never achieve the infrastructural improvements that the EU would ask for (read: 50+ years behind the times).

Most educated Ukrainians know this. That is why they are more interested in emigrating than self-improvement.

-----------------------------

The EU itself is a farce. I know it seems like a lot of my posts are anti-Europe/anti-EU but its really the case that the European "Union" is truly just a smoke and mirrors attempt by the Germans to establish a Fourth Reich.

Some of you probably just read that and said to yourself, "Fourth Reich, WTF is svenski talking about???"

What I'm saying is that the EU is propped up by German money and its body politic is more or less guided by the will of the politicians in Berlin. The nations of Western Europe realized in the late 1950s that another costly war to expand influence would not be practical or possible. In the case of France and the UK, nuclear deterrents on land, sea and air and the consequences of assured mutual destruction kept conventional warfare at bay.

What has happened during the EU financial crisis? German money has bailed out P.I.G.S. banking system — with stipulations. EU Parliament votes of countries in "financial receivership" have been revoked. A sign of where this whole thing is going.

Remember, follow the money.

In 2004, the Germans launched their offensive on the Ostfront by offering membership to ex-USSR countries that were clearly unprepared for meaningful membership. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia were arguable ready and compatible for EU membership. The worst ex-USSR picks were: Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia.

The proposal to "bring these countries up to speed" is merely a German carrot-and-stick maneuver to fortify their positions before the Russian Winter. Developing these countries will make it more difficult for them to pull out at a future date. The first signs of "development" will be the extraction (read: theft) of resources.

The march toward Kiev is the line in the sand. Crossing the Dnipro is akin to crossing the Rubicon. Russia, led by a man who is ostensibly in love with the concept of a second Soviet Union, is ready to push back. Putin, who was recently lauded by Sen. Mitt Romney as a better leader than Obama, has the cash and oil to twist some arms. That's what he's doing with VY in Ukraine.

The Endgame will be a decisive Russian victory. VY will be deposed, leaving a power vacuum in Ukraine which Russia will gladly fill. Should legislation be pushed through granting the Germans/EU access to Ukrainian market, they will shocked by an almost complete loss of their investment due to corruption on par with such African countries as Egypt and Congo.

Belarus is already a pawn of Moscow. Draw in out of a map. You will see the "front lines". The next move for Russia would be to link up their front lines with the Kaliningrad enclave. That would entail undermining the EU in the Balkans. Estonia and Latvia are just a matter of time (read: population transfer in the Soviet Union). Lithuania is a unique situation and they will fight tooth and nail to keep Russia at arm's length.

May we live in interesting times...

tl;dr:

Germans ("EU") try to weasel their way into Ukraine a la 1942, slowly get pushed out by Russians. Ukrainians continue to be treated like red-headed step-children as they have for the last 100 800 years.

Post: #118

(01-27-2014 07:57 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  When I was in Ukraine this summer (pre-protests), I heard a lot of grumbling from the people I met about the government and their bleak outlook for Ukraine's future. Most of them simply wanted to leave the country (90 percent for New York City). I guess it's no surprise then that within a few months it has boiled over into an actual revolution.

The problem with the EU's offer to Ukraine is that it is misunderstood by the majority of Ukrainians as an offer of ascendency to EU membership. It is not. IMHO, Ukraine will never attain economic parity with other ex-USSR EU members such as Poland. Most Ukrainians I met offered this assessment as well.

If nothing else, they will never achieve the infrastructural improvements that the EU would ask for (read: 50+ years behind the times).

Most educated Ukrainians know this. That is why they are more interested in emigrating than self-improvement.

-----------------------------

The EU itself is a farce. I know it seems like a lot of my posts are anti-Europe/anti-EU but its really the case that the European "Union" is truly just a smoke and mirrors attempt by the Germans to establish a Fourth Reich.

Some of you probably just read that and said to yourself, "Fourth Reich, WTF is svenski talking about???"

What I'm saying is that the EU is propped up by German money and its body politic is more or less guided by the will of the politicians in Berlin. The nations of Western Europe realized in the late 1950s that another costly war to expand influence would not be practical or possible. In the case of France and the UK, nuclear deterrents on land, sea and air and the consequences of assured mutual destruction kept conventional warfare at bay.

What has happened during the EU financial crisis? German money has bailed out P.I.G.S. banking system — with stipulations. EU Parliament votes of countries in "financial receivership" have been revoked. A sign of where this whole thing is going.

Remember, follow the money.

In 2004, the Germans launched their offensive on the Ostfront by offering membership to ex-USSR countries that were clearly unprepared for meaningful membership. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia were arguable ready and compatible for EU membership. The worst ex-USSR picks were: Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia.

The proposal to "bring these countries up to speed" is merely a German carrot-and-stick maneuver to fortify their positions before the Russian Winter. Developing these countries will make it more difficult for them to pull out at a future date. The first signs of "development" will be the extraction (read: theft) of resources.

The march toward Kiev is the line in the sand. Crossing the Dnipro is akin to crossing the Rubicon. Russia, led by a man who is ostensibly in love with the concept of a second Soviet Union, is ready to push back. Putin, who was recently lauded by Sen. Mitt Romney as a better leader than Obama, has the cash and oil to twist some arms. That's what he's doing with VY in Ukraine.

The Endgame will be a decisive Russian victory. VY will be deposed, leaving a power vacuum in Ukraine which Russia will gladly fill. Should legislation be pushed through granting the Germans/EU access to Ukrainian market, they will shocked by an almost complete loss of their investment due to corruption on par with such African countries as Egypt and Congo.

Belarus is already a pawn of Moscow. Draw in out of a map. You will see the "front lines". The next move for Russia would be to link up their front lines with the Kaliningrad enclave. That would entail undermining the EU in the Balkans. Estonia and Latvia are just a matter of time (read: population transfer in the Soviet Union). Lithuania is a unique situation and they will fight tooth and nail to keep Russia at arm's length.

May we live in interesting times...

tl;dr:

Germans ("EU") try to weasel their way into Ukraine a la 1942, slowly get pushed out by Russians. Ukrainians continue to be treated like red-headed step-children as they have for the last 100 800 years.

Oh well.... that Customs agreement with Moscow would have been better.
I think another problem is that UKRAINIANS ARE SHORTSIGHTED and see EU as being all powerful. They haven't really studied geopolitiics...and don't realize who the future powers are going to be. Russia is going to be very important in the future, while EU SADLY won't be as much. America has already been moving our resources to Asia..we know that's the future. We have also been increasing trade with Brazil and India.
i think if Ukraine was ever going to enter the EU..Germany would bail out! NOWAY they want them in. In fact I think the Germans are getting sick of the whole thing after the bailout demands they got.But cheap labor and below market resources is what Germany wants..if Ukraine's standard of living went way up..they would be forced to get these resources some place else.
Btw you lived out cultural differences..In Ukraine they will beat gays openly in the street....that isn't going to change!

Post: #119

jimukr104 Wrote:Btw you lived out cultural differences..In Ukraine they will beat gays openly in the street....that isn't going to change!

Hahaha, this reminded me of when a co-worker from Moldova proclaimed, "In Ukraine, if they think you a gay, they punch you. I help them."

He said this to a group of teachers from USA and UK. You can only imagine what the face of the feminist Brits looked like.

Post: #120

"In 2004, the Germans launched their offensive on the Ostfront by offering membership to ex-USSR countries that were clearly unprepared for meaningful membership. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia were arguable ready and compatible for EU membership. The worst ex-USSR picks were: Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia."


I did not want to hijack this thread on UA but Svenski7's uninformed statements require a rebuttal. First of all Croatia was one of the last countries to become a full member of the EU, only joining in 2013. Romania is still one of the poorest countries in Central Europe (excluding EE) whose gpd/capita is almost 3x lower than Estonia's and 2x lower than Lithuania/Latvia, it suffers from relatively high unemployment and miserable conditions (outside of Bucharest). Romania was not ready for membership and it took a while for it to meet the minimum economic criteria to join EU.

Bulgaria is slightly better off but even then it is still relatively poor and despised by some of the member states (read UK) so that their citizens can't even apply for certain jobs. How can you claim Slovakia joining EU was a mistake? Dude, it is doing better economically than many of the original 15 member states. Just look at the recent figures: In 2011 (with the GDP growth of 3.3%) and 2012 (GDP growth of 1.8%), Slovakia was the 2nd fastest growing Eurozone member after Estonia. Slovakia's GDP growth of 0.9% in 2013 remains one of the highest in the Eurozone.[63]

"The next move for Russia would be to link up their front lines with the Kaliningrad enclave. That would entail undermining the EU in the Balkans. Estonia and Latvia are just a matter of time (read: population transfer in the Soviet Union). Lithuania is a unique situation and they will fight tooth and nail to keep Russia at arm's length."

I disagree with your assessment. The Baltic states won't have any problems remaining independent and fully integrated within the EU. You should see my post on the "future of Lithuania" here:

/thread-32223.html

Population transfer won't happen as most ethnic Russian's have not been able to become citizens of Estonia & Latvia (Lithuania is different and more homogenuos, Russians make up about 7% of the population) and have emigrated over the last 20 years or have had kids who became LV & ES citizens by passing the naturalization exams and have been somewhat pacified.
Don't forget that ES economy is completely propped-up by Scandinavian countries, FDI by them is at around 52% and they would never let their smaller neighbor/friend cave in to Russian pressure (see Finland vs. Russia during WWII) & influence. Also, US is dead set on containing Russian pressure and expansion. Perhaps you have not read about the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, which will include SM-3 Block IIA interceptors to be positioned in Poland around 2018.

Anyways, the situation is not as gloomy as you predict for Europe. Putin is smart and he knows that EU is needed for all those Russian energy exports and Germany is one of Russia's biggest trade partners and both countries need each other equally, so he will not do anything to piss them off.

Post: #121

Hey G,

Good post. Always happy to see constructive criticism.

-It's true that Croatia just very recently joined. Nevertheless, I think they will be a good fit.

-I give Romania an optimistic outlook in part because of their shared heritage with the other Latin EU countries. Romania --> romanus --> "citizen of Rome" Romanians can pick up other Romance language with ease and are much better suited than Bulgarians to leave the home country to work in another EU country such as Germany. I might be too generous on that.

-Agreed with your assessment on Lithuania. I am, however, bearish on Latvia and Estonia.

-I stand corrected on Slovakia.

There is most definitely a symbiotic relationship between Germany and Russia at this point. Germany has cash, Russia has gas (heh). The point I'm trying to make is that the Germans are not comfortable with this entente and are maneuvering themselves into a better position relative to Russia. When does Germany and the EU get their gas/oil from Russia cut off? When Russia gets pissed off at Ukraine. This is the reason new pipelines are being built off the inner coast of Scandinavia to circumvent shaky former USSR politics.

Also interesting to note where Germany got its oil 1941-1945. Obviously they weren't on good terms with Russia or Soviet-controlled EE. So they took over the Romanian oil fields.

It may all just be a figment of my mind but there are quite a few RVFers who try (and rightfully so) to connect the dots between Iraq/Afghanistan and oil for US consumption so I don't see my European theory as far-fetched.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Future ridiculous EU prospects include: Kosovo, Serbia, Moldova, Albania and Turkey.

I like how the map does really resemble Europe in 1940:

-You've got the Battle of Britain going on with a referendum coming up and those guys are ready to fight on the beaches.

-Meanwhile Ireland signed up while throwing up both middle fingers in the direction of London.

-Norway is 50-50 and trying to hold their own. Meanwhile Sweden sold out.

-Finland is playing both sides. They will use the EU to keep the Ruskis off their back until they realize that Greece is pissing away their tax dollars at which point they tell Berlin to take a hike.

-Iceland is just chillin.

-The South Europeans are having civil unrest as usual.

-Switzerland is sovereign and stacking everyone's gold.

Post: #122

(01-28-2014 12:07 AM)svenski7 Wrote:  -I give Romania an optimistic outlook in part because of their shared heritage with the other Latin EU countries. Romania --> romanus --> "citizen of Rome" Romanians can pick up other Romance language with ease and are much better suited than Bulgarians to leave the home country to work in another EU country such as Germany. I might be too generous on that.

This doesn't make any sense. In what way will the Romanian economy be improved if their working population emigrates en masse?

(01-28-2014 12:07 AM)svenski7 Wrote:  -Agreed with your assessment on Lithuania. I am, however, bearish on Latvia and Estonia.

For what reason? Estonia is doing quite well at the moment, has a booming IT sector, and has aligned its economy with those of Sweden and Finland. Their government is first-class and, in fact, some of their e-government solutions are now being implemented in Finland.

(01-28-2014 12:07 AM)svenski7 Wrote:  There is most definitely a symbiotic relationship between Germany and Russia at this point. Germany has cash, Russia has gas (heh). The point I'm trying to make is that the Germans are not comfortable with this entente and are maneuvering themselves into a better position relative to Russia. When does Germany and the EU get their gas/oil from Russia cut off? When Russia gets pissed off at Ukraine. This is the reason new pipelines are being built off the inner coast of Scandinavia to circumvent shaky former USSR politics.

The Nord Stream pipelines don't make Germany any less dependent on Russian gas.

(01-28-2014 12:07 AM)svenski7 Wrote:  Also interesting to note where Germany got its oil 1941-1945. Obviously they weren't on good terms with Russia or Soviet-controlled EE. So they took over the Romanian oil fields.

That isn't practical today. The capacity of the Romanian oil fields is about 504'000 bb/day. Russia's capacity is about 10'540'000 bb/dday.


And you've confused the USSR with the Warsaw Pact. They are not one and the same. The issues that exist in the countries which made up the pre-war USSR (roughly equivalent to the Russian Empire) are completely different to the those of the other former-Warsaw-Pact countries.

Post: #123

Oh, and Hungary has been the worst performer of all the new EU members. They wouldn't pass the accession criteria today.

Post: #124

The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

Post: #125

(01-28-2014 03:31 AM)Vicious Wrote:  The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

A lot of guys are vehemently opposed to the EU project because it has successfully raised the standard of living in many countries of the former UPPR (Union of Pussy Paradise Republics). They'll find any tangental evidence they can find to support theories that the EU is heading for an implosion.