(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

(01-26-2014 03:35 AM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

That is my read too. Yanukovich is weak right now. There are corroborated reports that the military will not support the President. Many of the regional Berkut (special police) are defecting, especially in the west. It seems like he has lost the support of his financial backers as well. My guess is Putin will also give up on him in short order.

The offer of cabinet posts was (besides being I believe illegal, outside his powers) a trap. The opposition would have gotten responsibility and no authority and it would have begun a political cat and mouse game. Yatsenyuk was right to reject it (although he left the door open).

BTW. CNN is showing nothing as far as I can tell.

My friends in Ukraine have turned me on to espreso.tv. Also Channel 5 is no longer having their feed scrambled by the govt. I heard they were live last night when Klischko negotiated the release of the trapped cadets in Ukraine House at 4 am.

This is what the protestors who threw out the militia from Ukraine house last night look like. I don't think these guys need Return of Kings to remind them that they are men. Not exactly our idea of a western "protestor".

I thought it was an interesting picture, given what some have been saying about both sides in this conflict.

https://twitter.com/dpeleschuk/status/42...20/photo/1

(01-26-2014 06:00 AM)rastignac Wrote:  

(01-26-2014 03:35 AM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 11:20 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Do we have any men on the ground in Ukraine right now?

I'm here...... If you avoid the problem areas which are very concentrated in a couple of spots in the center, then life has pretty much gone on (at least for me) as normal. Electricity, utilities like gas etc., cable TV and internet, public transportation like the subway are all running as usual. No shortages or runs on supermarkets as shelves are full. I haven't been out in the center very much or on the town, but when I have and have avoided those areas affected by the protests, it's been fine. Actually, much less tourists and especially sexpats around which has been refreshing. They seemed to have been scared off.....

This situation sometimes seems like it could be a million miles away and I see what everyone else sees on CNN.....

That being said, the situation could change quickly.....I'm just dumbfounded as to why the President hasn't called in the troops, he still has support in the east and southern parts of the country(or so it seems, although that too is increasingly becoming shakey). He's even just offerred key posts in his government like the Prime Minister's job to the oppostion leaders.... His position must be really weak (I figure) within the power structures of the country like the security services, armed forces and the business clans(which have tacitly supported him) or else I'm sure he would have called in the military by now........

That is my read too. Yanukovich is weak right now. There are corroborated reports that the military will not support the President. Many of the regional Berkut (special police) are defecting, especially in the west. It seems like he has lost the support of his financial backers as well. My guess is Putin will also give up on him in short order.

The offer of cabinet posts was (besides being I believe illegal, outside his powers) a trap. The opposition would have gotten responsibility and no authority and it would have begun a political cat and mouse game. Yatsenyuk was right to reject it (although he left the door open).

BTW. CNN is showing nothing as far as I can tell.

My friends in Ukraine have turned me on to espreso.tv. Also Channel 5 is no longer having their feed scrambled by the govt. I heard they were live last night when Klischko negotiated the release of the trapped cadets in Ukraine House at 4 am.

CNN was used as a figure of speech......that said, they have broadcasted it of course as it is "news of the day" just like BBC, DW, etc. Coverage is however, limited and basic, obviously not as extensive as local sources on the ground.....

This is the best reporting I have seen from the protest site, on the ground. Describes what is going on without a lot of the geopolitical spin.

http://zyalt.livejournal.com/984735.html

(01-25-2014 09:27 PM)DaveR Wrote:  

(01-25-2014 04:11 PM)CarCrashKid Wrote:  Relative to the West, things are much cheaper. Hence why a lot of men in this forum, intend or tend to make their money in the Anglosphere then set sail for the Eastern shores.

As someone who has lived in the country for almost a decade, I can tell you 'things' are certainly not cheaper. I doubt you've ever been to either country, but if you have then you are not comparing like-for-like goods and services. Bread that is 1/3 by weight made up of sawdust is not better value, it's only cheaper due to its lower quality. Local produce is of very poor quality, hence the lower prices. Imported goods, even basic ones like bananas, are significantly more expensive than anywhere in the EU or the US.

Your comment about oligarchs 'bringing in money' is ridiculous. Oligarchs make their money by stealing State assets and resources, and siphoning money from the State budget. The idea that they then live cheaply in Ukraine and Russia is, frankly, idiotic. For starters, most of them spend little time in Russia and Ukraine. While in the West, they keep up appearances by buying the most expensive real estate in London, New York, and the French Riviera, by commissioning the world's most expensive yachts, and personally sponsoring sports teams. And you think they're on a budget?

"the spread of communism" - actually, what Russia and Ukraine have now is unchecked capitalism; the opposite of what you're trying to claim.

So have you been to Ukraine or Russia?

What DaveR details above is all very true. Geez don't get me started on how expensive Moscow is!

There are Now reports that opposition protesters tried to take buildings in Odessa, Zaporozhye , and Dnepropetrovsk. They think they bused in protesters from the West.
I am pretty sure every city has opposition groups..but just yesterday thousands in Odessa gathered supporting the gov't and urging that they protect them from the opposition protesters. I wonder if the media is reporting it wrong..and the protesters are pro gov't ones lol.

The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

SADLY...THEY PROBABLY WILL WIN. In Russain culture people always vote for those who are deemed manly/strong. I think many of Yanukovych's supporters see him as weak since he hasn't ended the protest. They will Not vote for a weak man. I think maybe the opposition knows this. They might be attempting to win by default.
Military action and martial law should have been declared(same as would happen in USA)
Interestingly... their last president was a western candidate and he did a HORRIBLE job.
I don't think there will be a real civil war because the Eastern and Southern Ukrainians are not looking to fight..they are actually busy working in REAL jobs in industry and don't have the time to protest. It will be like it was in 2005. The opposition gov't will make all types of rules and regulations that BENEFIT the western Ukrainians or Ukrainian culture and the people in the EAST and South will ignore them.Those cities will continue to keep most of the profits from industry and in 4 years the Western folks will be sick and tired of their leaders promises.
The Western gov't also has a VERY big problem also. If they take trade agreement with Europe, I believe one of the expectations is that Ukraine will have to adopt allowing dual citizenship. A large majority of East and South Ukraine would receive Russian passports. That sets the stage for actually more meddling from Russia.Russia has a policy of protecting its citizenry around the world.The oppositions attempts to get further from Russia MIGHT actually bring the BEAR closest!

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

Answer below... fat fingered an initial post by accident.

(01-26-2014 01:14 PM)Eddie Morra Wrote:  The main opposition demand is for the President to resign and a call for new elections. Even if the opposition gets its way, there is no guarantee that they will win....... Then what?

It looks like Viktor Fedorovych still has some fight in him (he may go out in flames or use flames to hang on for a while), but even in Russia's eyes and in the eyes of the east, he has been weakened. He is politically dead.

More than a few road bumps ahead. Looking into my crystal ball, here is a wild guess:

<crystal ball>

- The country need to revisit the constitution and they need a transitional mechanism to do it. The kind of centralization of power in the presidency since 2010 (Yanukovich's election) did not work well for anyone but his Party of Regions and his sponsors, short term. I believe it is why he may lose power. There may be some attempt to actually rewrite the constitution rather than amend it. I hear people talking about creating some kind of federal republic. It makes little sense to have appointed Party of Regions governors in Lviv for example, as as was allowed under the current system. It would be like allowing Obama to appoint a democratic governor for a Republican stronghold like Texas and siphoning off money. Texans would be pissed.

- The country seems broke. None of these Euromaidan events will change this. The hrivna will drop. Trouble will brew when folks don't get their pensions. Europe, US and Russia relation questions will often be about money. The biggest challenges will be financial.

- Corruption. There will be investigation into Yanukovich, the party, and the companies he and his family is associated with, corruption. Klitschko will run on this and probably focus on it. I believe he has one redeeming trait; he will be able to resist corruption.

- Euromaidan clampdown tactics. Not sure if kidnapping wounded protestors from hospitals and killing them in the woods is legal. I doubt it. There will be some attempt to bring people to justice for violence against the people, especially around the use of paid Titushkis and other mercenaries dressed as Berkut. A lot of the opposition believes (and is trying to prove) many of the militia dressed as Berkut were actually Russians from Russia, either mercenaries or special forces. The country will need to work through this stuff.

- Timashenko. What do they do with her? Does she re-enter politics?

- Ruling coalition will be difficult given all the interests. Svaboda was instrumental in Euromaidan but will unlikely be able to win the vote and lead the country. Their leader is kind of scary. They will be demanding and difficult to align in any government run by someone like Klitschko.

- Generational change. Yanukovich will be the last Soviet style politician in Ukraine. The new generation has known themselves to be Ukrainian through their adult life. The only region that would prefer to be in Russia is arguably Crimea.

- Ukrainian national issues like language, which were so prominent in 2004. I don't think they will be a priority. They force us to speak Ukrainian at McDonald's and listen to bad Ukrainian overdubs (when everyone speaks Russian) at the movies in Odessa. I am not sure what else they could do.

</crystal ball>

I am going to Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv (places know well) for business next month. It'll be interesting to hear what people are saying. (Yes people do real work and business in western Ukraine! I had a call with some today, on a Sunday even.).

^^ so in essence they FORCE resignations by threat?sounds like terrorism to me!
Funny, last time I was in Vinnitsa it was Russian centric. My wife says the problem is the smaller cities and villages in the oblast are Western centric.
Anyway this is a good time the buy things priced in Hrv since the value is falling.Anyone think it get to 10 to the dollar?

My 2 cents on costs: Odessa, Ukraine versus Silicon Valley, CA.

Housing: much cheaper. (about 25% of CA)
Domestic Seasonal Food: much cheaper than Silicon Valley (about 25%-50% of CA). Much better quality, imo, non-GMO, better produce, better meat, not processed.
Imported Food: more expensive by 25-50% (try to avoid it)
Imported goods (clothing, electronics): more expensive by 25-50%
Restaurants: a bit cheaper (about 75% of CA)
Service (internet, phone, TV): cheaper (fro 10% to 50%)

I bring in stuff purchased on Amazon (clothes, electronics) on a regular basis. With a weaker Hrivna they will become even more expensive.

Interesting take on it!
http://www.opednews.com/articles/How-the...6-811.html

Oh well.... that Customs agreement with Moscow would have been better.
I think another problem is that UKRAINIANS ARE SHORTSIGHTED and see EU as being all powerful. They haven't really studied geopolitiics...and don't realize who the future powers are going to be. Russia is going to be very important in the future, while EU SADLY won't be as much. America has already been moving our resources to Asia..we know that's the future. We have also been increasing trade with Brazil and India.
i think if Ukraine was ever going to enter the EU..Germany would bail out! NOWAY they want them in. In fact I think the Germans are getting sick of the whole thing after the bailout demands they got.But cheap labor and below market resources is what Germany wants..if Ukraine's standard of living went way up..they would be forced to get these resources some place else.
Btw you lived out cultural differences..In Ukraine they will beat gays openly in the street....that isn't going to change!

"In 2004, the Germans launched their offensive on the Ostfront by offering membership to ex-USSR countries that were clearly unprepared for meaningful membership. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia were arguable ready and compatible for EU membership. The worst ex-USSR picks were: Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia."


I did not want to hijack this thread on UA but Svenski7's uninformed statements require a rebuttal. First of all Croatia was one of the last countries to become a full member of the EU, only joining in 2013. Romania is still one of the poorest countries in Central Europe (excluding EE) whose gpd/capita is almost 3x lower than Estonia's and 2x lower than Lithuania/Latvia, it suffers from relatively high unemployment and miserable conditions (outside of Bucharest). Romania was not ready for membership and it took a while for it to meet the minimum economic criteria to join EU.

Bulgaria is slightly better off but even then it is still relatively poor and despised by some of the member states (read UK) so that their citizens can't even apply for certain jobs. How can you claim Slovakia joining EU was a mistake? Dude, it is doing better economically than many of the original 15 member states. Just look at the recent figures: In 2011 (with the GDP growth of 3.3%) and 2012 (GDP growth of 1.8%), Slovakia was the 2nd fastest growing Eurozone member after Estonia. Slovakia's GDP growth of 0.9% in 2013 remains one of the highest in the Eurozone.[63]

"The next move for Russia would be to link up their front lines with the Kaliningrad enclave. That would entail undermining the EU in the Balkans. Estonia and Latvia are just a matter of time (read: population transfer in the Soviet Union). Lithuania is a unique situation and they will fight tooth and nail to keep Russia at arm's length."

I disagree with your assessment. The Baltic states won't have any problems remaining independent and fully integrated within the EU. You should see my post on the "future of Lithuania" here:

http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-32223.html

Population transfer won't happen as most ethnic Russian's have not been able to become citizens of Estonia & Latvia (Lithuania is different and more homogenuos, Russians make up about 7% of the population) and have emigrated over the last 20 years or have had kids who became LV & ES citizens by passing the naturalization exams and have been somewhat pacified.
Don't forget that ES economy is completely propped-up by Scandinavian countries, FDI by them is at around 52% and they would never let their smaller neighbor/friend cave in to Russian pressure (see Finland vs. Russia during WWII) & influence. Also, US is dead set on containing Russian pressure and expansion. Perhaps you have not read about the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, which will include SM-3 Block IIA interceptors to be positioned in Poland around 2018.

Anyways, the situation is not as gloomy as you predict for Europe. Putin is smart and he knows that EU is needed for all those Russian energy exports and Germany is one of Russia's biggest trade partners and both countries need each other equally, so he will not do anything to piss them off.

This doesn't make any sense. In what way will the Romanian economy be improved if their working population emigrates en masse?

For what reason? Estonia is doing quite well at the moment, has a booming IT sector, and has aligned its economy with those of Sweden and Finland. Their government is first-class and, in fact, some of their e-government solutions are now being implemented in Finland.

The Nord Stream pipelines don't make Germany any less dependent on Russian gas.

That isn't practical today. The capacity of the Romanian oil fields is about 504'000 bb/day. Russia's capacity is about 10'540'000 bb/dday.


And you've confused the USSR with the Warsaw Pact. They are not one and the same. The issues that exist in the countries which made up the pre-war USSR (roughly equivalent to the Russian Empire) are completely different to the those of the other former-Warsaw-Pact countries.

Oh, and Hungary has been the worst performer of all the new EU members. They wouldn't pass the accession criteria today.

The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

(01-28-2014 03:31 AM)Vicious Wrote:  The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

A lot of guys are vehemently opposed to the EU project because it has successfully raised the standard of living in many countries of the former UPPR (Union of Pussy Paradise Republics). They'll find any tangental evidence they can find to support theories that the EU is heading for an implosion.

how will this situation probably end?

(01-28-2014 03:53 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

(01-28-2014 03:31 AM)Vicious Wrote:  The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

A lot of guys are vehemently opposed to the EU project because it has successfully raised the standard of living in many countries of the former UPPR (Union of Pussy Paradise Republics). They'll find any tangental evidence they can find to support theories that the EU is heading for an implosion.

I like your statement about the UPPR, that's an acronym one does not hear every day! I still stand corrected about my comments, especially as they pertain to Romania, Slovakia, and the Baltic states. I don't want to brag but as part of my job I support UN databases such as World Development Indicators composed of thousands of economic, social, and labor indicators and know my stuff when it comes to these countries. As the previous poster mentioned the only big mistake EU has made so far was to admit Hungary prematurely, although I would also say that Romania was not ready for EU at that time (though this was necessary as everyone knows top economies like UK and Deutschland need immigrants to meet the job imbalance and they would rather hire a Romanian farmer with an 8th grade education than a university graduate from N. Africa but who came illegally).

It's funny but majority of the forum guys are not the best informed when it comes to geopolitics, they only understand the "geopolitics of pussy" and for those reasons developing countries such as Romania joining the EU is bad for them since it decreases "gaming opportunities" and makes it harder for them to travel over there on a budget and impress local girls. Some of the guys on these forums if it were up to them they would love Eastern Europe to stay like Ukraine, ripe for "plundering"...

(01-28-2014 03:31 AM)Vicious Wrote:  The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

Bashing the EU is an American news media past time. I'm not sure what their game is, other than it deflects from America's own economic quagmire. I like the EU. Open borders, free trade, free labor,etc..It's the only way Europe stays relevant in the future.

The issue is the euro. The notion that countries with economies as divergent as Germany and Greece could operate under the same financial system was naive. Add in the new insolvent members in the east and you have yourself monopoly money, which is frankly what I thought euro notes always looked like.

(01-28-2014 03:31 AM)Vicious Wrote:  The anti-EU sentiment in this thread has become indecipherable (as evidenced by some of the rebuttals above). I suspect that it's just general animosity towards the union talking now.

yeah it got de-railed big time but I think it's just mainly Svenski7's big post.

I do think what's happening in Ukraine shows one important thing: the EU (and the US for that matter) aren't willing to put up the big bucks to help out the country really. The offer they got was not a lot of $$$ and came with all sorts of strings attached, some good, some bad. Russia immediately stepped up with more cash I believe and as they have the resources it speaks volumes.

Also, as has been explained, deep down, many in Ukraine have a longstanding affiliation with their Russian brothers who are right next door. Moreover, they don't want to lose the gas and massive market that Russia provides. Russia is much less competitive than in the EU really and if I'm in Ukraine and I speak the language and see the opportunities there well they are huge. For example, it's easier for Ukrainian agriculture companies to compete and dominate in Russia and the former CIS that it is for them to enter the EU with all it's farm subsidies, labor laws, and home-country ag and dairy companies already firmly in place.

The EU has plenty wrong with it too. The Euro was designed poorly and doesn't really work (different tax regimes, inability for member countries to print, a Euro in Cyprus is not worth as much as a Euro elsewhere, etc.) It's also chock-a-block with unelected bureaucrats who are not beholden to any voters but who go about their days trying to social engineer everything from women's rights to olive oil in restaurants. And with the increasing Feminist ideology firmly taking a hold in the EU (or so it seems) that's a massive worry. Sure women need rights and protections, but it's gone way too far in the US, UK and most of the Angolosphere and I think we're all a bit concerned that if this eventually gets to all the developing nations they will end up as screwed up socially as the US and certain parts of the EU are currently (for men at least). I don't think anyone on the forum would argue that point.

Finally, as Romania and Bulgaria found out, the EU's kinda broke, and these countries didn't get anything like the subsidies that the other EE members got initially when they joined. Nor do they really deserve them, these countries are especially corrupt, as the EU found out with the green energy and various other programs (which have been greatly curtailed in these countries btw). I think Ukrainians are fooling themselves if they think the free sh*t gravy train is coming as most of Europe is trying to take care of its own now and the money just isn't there anymore.