Post: #226

US oil & gas stocks have been pulling back since late October.

Though the longer-term trend is up since May.

Post: #227

(12-07-2013 11:31 PM)cool Wrote:  US oil & gas stocks have been pulling back since late October.

Though the longer-term trend is up since May.

why?

Post: #228

(12-07-2013 11:50 PM)Pyre Wrote:  

(12-07-2013 11:31 PM)cool Wrote:  US oil & gas stocks have been pulling back since late October.

Though the longer-term trend is up since May.

why?

I would say it's a correction. My portfolio, which is almost all gas & oil stocks, has been blasting upward since May.

Post: #229

(12-06-2013 05:08 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I wanted to revive this thread to ask if anyone had any ideas what sectors should be good buys in early 2014.

Back in 2012, I did well in REITs and energy. But I stumbled onto these stocks.

I'm now having a hard time navigating the massive amount of info on The Street, Seeking Alpha, WSJ, so if anyone wants to recommend a good source, feel free to do that, too. Often, I'll come across info that contradicts other info so I wind up buying nothing.

there is talk that the Fed will be ending QE in 2014. if this comes to pass, expect interest rates to rise and the USD to strengthen.
look for sectors that appreciate with rising interest and/or strong USD

Post: #230

Richard Bernstein arguing that we are only half way through the current bull market :

http://advisorperspectives.com/commentar...120613.php

Quote:If someone suggests “this time is different” and the person is bullish, people think the speaker to be foolish. However, if someone suggests “this time is different” and the person is bearish, people think the speaker to be very insightful.

The reality is that cycles follow a script. It’s never different. The characters and the story changes, but there are always five acts in a Shakespearean drama. There has always been an early-cycle, a mid-cycle, and a late-cycle that preceded a bear market and a recession.

If we are correct, and the market is entering the mid-cycle, then it likely isn’t yet intermission during the show.

We continue to believe that the stock market is experiencing one of the biggest bull markets of our careers.

Post: #231

worst thing that you can do is follow someone's advice, be it bullish or bearish, if you follow them how do you know when to buy / sell? you'll never know the reasons or when to be worried that you took the wrong advice, better do your own research, make your own decisions.

Post: #232

(12-11-2013 04:48 PM)saeta119 Wrote:  worst thing that you can do is follow someone's advice, be it bullish or bearish, if you follow them how do you know when to buy / sell? you'll never know the reasons or when to be worried that you took the wrong advice, better do your own research, make your own decisions.

I'm NOT trying to be a smart ass, but should we follow your advice NOT to follow advice?

As you likely understand, each of us are in varying circumstances and almost always we are acting on incomplete information (with our own predispositions and baggage), and likely you are right about the helpfulness of each of us getting some grasp about what we are investing into.

Nonetheless, in the end, many of us are going to be making leaps of faith concerning our action(s) - and sometimes those leaps of faith are based on what we are told by others to be a good investment product or a good investment strategy.

I find it very helpful to bounce ideas off of other guys... certainly, some guys talk out of their ass.... yet with anything, good to take any kinds of investment suggestions with a grain of salt.. as with the suggestions in a variety of areas in life....

Actually, a funny thing is that some people are actually paid to give advice in various areas.. and some people take it upon themselves to give advice..... and people pay for the receipt of advice... there are many businesses and professions built around the practice of advice giving.

In my regular life, I try to avoid giving advice or taking it.. b/c I think of the exchange of information with other people as a form of brainstorming so I can come to my own conclusion(s) (as you suggest) or to help another person to do the same (come to his/her own conclusion(s)).

Nonetheless, sometimes people insist on either giving or receiving "advice," even though I employ some standard statements, like you mentioned about the problems with the concept of advice... and that each of us needs to come to his/her own comfort level....

In a lot of areas in life, frequently people feel they do NOT have time to do very much research, so they rely upon the knowledge and experience of others... to lessen the risk... in that regard, I would rather find out from another guy that he got shocked by sticking his finger in the light socket rather than to stick my finger in there and to see what happens..

Post: #233

(12-11-2013 04:48 PM)saeta119 Wrote:  worst thing that you can do is follow someone's advice, be it bullish or bearish, if you follow them how do you know when to buy / sell? you'll never know the reasons or when to be worried that you took the wrong advice, better do your own research, make your own decisions.

Sure, I understand where you are coming from. But I enyoy ruminating about the investment opinions of strategists with considerable experience, not some anonymous dude(s) on Zero Hedge, and as JJG said "bounce ideas off of other guys"

Bernstein, who I quoted above, was voted to Institutional Investor magazine's annual "All-America Research Team" eighteen times, including ten as the top-ranked analyst in his category, and has 30 years experience on the Street including most recently the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch.

Post: #234

QE to be tapered to $ 75 Bln, stock market soars

http://money.msn.com/business-news/artic...d=17191362

Post: #235

I think QE taper talk is the new interest rate hike/cut talk. They will control the markets with it for the most part.

I do expect them to keep slowly tapering for a while. Due to the way unemployment benefits are calculated it has nowhere to go but down. Especially if they cut the benefits after 26 weeks now(not sure if they amended that). That would immediately remove a lot of unemployed people from being included in the U3 unemployment rate.

2 curve balls that I can think of that might shake things up a bit are velocity of money picking up and the new Volcker Rule. If banks have to realize losses it could get pretty ugly.

During the last 2 presidential transitions things got pretty bad. It should be an interesting few years ahead.

Post: #236

(12-18-2013 09:35 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  QE to be tapered to $ 75 Bln, stock market soars

http://money.msn.com/business-news/artic...d=17191362

I do NOT really claim to know too much about what causes rallies, and certainly the stock market has a bit of a herd mentality and sometimes rallies over news that is NOT really logically connected to the well being of the economy.

NEWS today also was that both the house and the senate have passed a bill that will likely be signed by Obama.. which approves a budget - getting us passed a govt shut down in January.

I was thinking that a factor that may have assisted TODAY's rallying of the market was also the security that is in place that there is NOT going to be a govt shut down, which should cause some certainty and assurances regarding the near term future.

Post: #237

Well, RVF traders. How was your year? How was 2013 for you in terms of returns on your portfolio?

Let me start. For me, this year was great.

Made 44.5% return on my trading account.

I trade stocks, futures and foreign exchange(forex). Below, i will do a quick synopsis of my best trades and mistakes of the year.

ON STOCKS:

One of my best bet of the year was the dairy stocks short position. I committed a more sizeable % of A.U.M to that. I really went in.

The premise: china is the main importer from new zealand; china suspend all dairy products(the main export from new zealand) indefinitely because of botulism. All i had to do is find rotten dairy companies with action in this space and short them. I was short LWAY and DF.

The new zealand/china/dairy products global macro situation and the rotten fundamental of the companies involved are soo obvious, it is like taking candy from a baby.

Another major one for me this year in stocks was a 2012 position that i closed down in july 2013. It was my QE3 propelled trades. The strategy was simple: hurricane sandy(from 2012) + good company's fundamentals + QE3 MBS inflation + Solid sector outperformance. The stocks were: APOG, LL, AOS, MHK, HD. That was fucking delicious. I closed all of them down in july 2013 after i had totally raped them to oblivion.

These two were my big play of the year in stocks. Nothing like the measly 1% speculative play of my healthcare stocks

ON CURRENCY:

For forex, my best trade of the year was short CAD(canadian dollar). In retrospect, JPY would have been the better candidate, but... i am only human, besides, i did well with short CAD. All across the board the CAD has been beaten senseless, buried, exhumed and then pissed on like a homeless alcoholic. CAD depreciates from 600 pips to over 1300 pips against the majors... except with CAD/JPY, where the JPY is cad's bitch.(i dont feel like calculating and posting the basis points for each crosses and pairs).

One thing i will add is that mapping out money flows in the currency world through indices behaviour has helped me in optimizing my trend trading techniques. Regardless of how awesome a country's fundamental is, if money is flowing elsewhere, her currency will not go up. That is just the harsh reality.

My other good trading decision was not touching bitcoin with a 12 feet pole.

ON COMMODITIES:

Best position: short XAU. shorting gold was my best play in terms of commodities play. Especially, given the QE3 tapering/no tapering equivocation and the improving economical situation in the usa. Gold is the antidollar. That was a no brainer.

ANYWAYS, that is it for the great plays of the year.

Let me add, that despite all the mental discipline, the fear and greed that plagues the trader never truly goes away. Repressed, buried deep down, but always whispering. There is always that faint echo in the background. This is not a easy business.... Which leads me to the unforced errors of the year.

TRADING ERRORS/MISTAKES THIS YEAR:

#1. Placing a bet on the wrong side of interest rates movement(T-NOTES FUTURES); during the government shutdown debate nonsense, between republican and democrat in usa whitehouse. The market completely anticipates and adjust. I had my arse kicked thoroughly. I deserve that.

#2. Letting greed slightly override my judgement while assessing the degree of volatility in EURUSD from major FED announcements. Resulting in losses. I also deserve that. Speaking of volatility, maybe somebody will come up with VIX for bitcoin.

#3. In order to increase my risk/return ratio... I wasted unnecessary amount of time fine tuning one of my outdated system. Went on a wild goose chase because of greed. When you think about it, it is quite funny, to what extent you cannot see clearly when you are in the thick of things. amazing, really.


Well, may 2014 yield better results,.... overall i did well: i am up 44.5% for the year, so i leave you with this music "i'm soo paid"

Post: #238

^^^

Post: #239

(12-25-2013 06:04 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  Well, RVF traders. How was your year? How was 2013 for you in terms of returns on your portfolio?

Let me start. For me, this year was great.

Made 44.5% return on my trading account.

Very nice return Nemencine.

Im not trading, I buy and hold a portfolio of the greatest companies for the long term.

I've also had a bumper year. The best year to date performers in my portfolio are Netflix up 307%, Zillow up 199%, and Priceline.com up 91%

Post: #240

Up 37.5% on GLW.

Post: #241

(12-25-2013 06:04 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  Well, RVF traders. How was your year? How was 2013 for you in terms of returns on your portfolio?

I have been thinking about this question all week, more or less.

I don’t really consider myself to be a trader because I tend to want to hold my investments for at least a year, but usually I aim for holding my investments for even longer, such as 3-5 years at least. Nonetheless, I have been studing trading, and I enjoy reading about trader tricks and tips, just in case those tricks and tips may ever come of use.

My 2013 investment in review consist of:
1) Five classes of index funds (stocks and bonds) that are part of a retirement portfolio - returned about 22%.

2) Several (non-retirement) index mutual funds - in which I began to invest in late October 2013 - returned about 2.5% between November and December.

3) Bitcoins - in which I began to invest in my own variation of modified front loading dollar cost averaging in late November 2013 (when BTC was at its $1,200 peak). At the close of the year (with about one month’s investing), I was about negative 3% since at the end of the year, my cash out rate (about $740) was near my then average price per BTC (about $760).

4) I realize that throughout the year, I had maintained a minimum balance of about $20,000 in an online account that was earning about .76% interest, and probably, I could have put $10,000 of that to better use; however, frequently, I get too afraid if I were NOT to have enough liquid cash on hand. Certainly, I did NOT know that I would maintain that much liquidity throughout the year – usually my minimum liquid cash that I had been keeping in that account had been between $5,000 and $10,000. So, throughout 2013, I ended up having about $10,000 extra that I could have put to work better for me.

Even though I do NOT have big return numbers to report for 2013, I feel good about the year, given my risk profile and my preference to diversify my assets.

BTW, regarding item 4, above, I have been using Capital 360 (formerly ING) as my online investment account which has a separate online banking account (that earns the .76% that I had been receiving on my liquid cash). Does anyone here have a better way to earn a higher percentage rate with liquid cash assets – let’s say usually keeping a fluctuating balance between $5,000 and $25,000?

Post: #242

(12-06-2013 05:22 PM)DVY Wrote:  I have shares of GLW (corning). Good cash position, low debts, long-term management.

The big ? is how will GLW step away from display technologies (TV/monitors etc).

Its has a very reasonable P/E w/decent cash-flow. Its worth a look...

You were right about this stock. Shot right up since the date you told me about it. It's $2 a share higher now. I sat on the sidelines and watched it rise like an idiot. I need to learn how to act in life. When it dips, I'll buy.

Post: #243

Can't wait to be a part of the 2014 thread, this year is going to be a whirlwind. Anyone see China's index hit 6 month lows today?

Post: #244

(01-17-2014 12:15 AM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Can't wait to be a part of the 2014 thread, this year is going to be a whirlwind.

Welcome Richiavelli. The 2014 thread is already here. Have you seen it?

(01-17-2014 12:15 AM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Anyone see China's index hit 6 month lows today?

What significance does the China index lows have for you?

Are you thinking that NOW is generally a good time to invest in China stocks? Or, are you thinking something else?

I get the sense that guys are generally bullish on the US stock market for 2014... but have some concerns to hedge. I would consider Chinese stocks to be a hedge on the US stocks, no?

Post: #245

(01-17-2014 12:37 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:15 AM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Can't wait to be a part of the 2014 thread, this year is going to be a whirlwind.

Welcome Richiavelli. The 2014 thread is already here. Have you seen it?

(01-17-2014 12:15 AM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Anyone see China's index hit 6 month lows today?

What significance does the China index lows have for you?

Are you thinking that NOW is generally a good time to invest in China stocks? Or, are you thinking something else?

I get the sense that guys are generally bullish on the US stock market for 2014... but have some concerns to hedge. I would consider Chinese stocks to be a hedge on the US stocks, no?

I think Chinese Shadow banking is really dangerous for the overall world economy. It looks eerily similar to what happened to the United States in 2008 with sub-prime mortgages. Institutions sell the government bonds through trust instruments which are cookie-cutter'd up into small pieces for investors to pick up. The government came out and said they would not bail out any of these investments.

I am with you on concerns to hedge for the future. I do not think China is the place to do it (I'm steering clear). With some of my crazy money I may open a short position in China, I need to do more research though.