Post: #76

(02-28-2013 12:56 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  In all honesty I was looking at coming to Cali for a month or 2 this year just to hang out. I am sure you and I would both rather be there than in Canada.

I will also be posting some real trades I am doing with options. People can judge for themselves if it is something they are interested in. Even simple strats as buying puts and calls or covered calls is something people should know about. Doing covered calls is such a great simple strategy with no downside really, unless you are married to the stock.

Sounds good brother, feel free to show your trades or whatever you are doing. Just don't post that 2-3% monthly is easy for everyone because that means we could both be millionaires in two years. I would live in a dungeon full of ex military gay dues fighting for my life for 2-4% returns monthly because In a year we'd be shitting money, I'd live in Alaska or the moon who cares money is money.

Education on covered calls etc is also cool that's a fair thread.

Main issue is that 2-3% comment and the term "easy", other than that do what you gotta do to make your money.

Post: #77

(02-28-2013 12:56 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  In all honesty I was looking at coming to Cali for a month or 2 this year just to hang out. I am sure you and I would both rather be there than in Canada.

I will also be posting some real trades I am doing with options. People can judge for themselves if it is something they are interested in. Even simple strats as buying puts and calls or covered calls is something people should know about. Doing covered calls is such a great simple strategy with no downside really, unless you are married to the stock.

What type of stocks you writing covered calls against?

I've done well in the past doing it on select Pharma Stocks but do it as more of a short term strategy with the aim to get called away within 1 or 2 months.

Usually with the pharmas the Premiums are high which makes them good candidates. Having said that there is a higher risk though.

I look for minimum 15% return on the trade.

2 example of trades in the past that I took that worked out well

ARNA, SRPT

It's not my main focus with trading but I agree it's a good income producer.

Post: #78

to get back on track a little, looks like an agreement could not be reached. What happens to the market now? And how does this effect me as a consumer ?

Post: #79

(02-28-2013 06:27 PM)chyamor Wrote:  to get back on track a little, looks like an agreement could not be reached. What happens to the market now? And how does this effect me as a consumer ?

What agreement are you speaking of? If you think you can beat the market without 1 hand shake from billionaire money makers or literal proof over 5+ years.

All the comments on here about beating the market I've shut down.

1. 2-3% monthly returns? Anyone on this forum give me a call I will personally show up to your door step with enough money that we both retire forever in less than a few years, not "6 figures money" try extreme fuck you money where we can throw coke parties all day on yachts 24/7/365
2. You're not more liquid than a fund.

Same story.
1 hand shake or proof. Otherwise you're just a keyboard jockey.

The way we see if it is is legit is flash up your screen, screen cap it with stock market tab showing, have the time and date on your desktop set to show exact second and minutes and also do two back to back screen caps intraday so you see the percentages slightly vary within 3-5 seconds. Also no time to edit the photo so it must be loaded in 30 seconds and you just crop out your dollar values.

Real proof, so with that said stop taking advice from guys who are just keyboarding around, if they are making money in the near term it is 99.999999999999999999% pure luck so re-read the advice already. Dollar cost down like Mike said.

Cute and paste again of same explanation of why you're fucked unless you're 1 hand shake away or B have 100% proof.

Quote:As much as I love the manosphere, unless the person is in the know (direct connect to multi-billion dollar funds). Discussions are entirely wasteful.

Someone with real power can wipe you out in seconds.

Example: Dell.

Goldman Sachs equity research team upgraded the stock in December on "possible LBO" from a SELL rating. Had a sell for over.. Two years.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1043801-...ll-why-now
Goldman Sachs has a person on the board of directors at Dell (the ex head of... Equity research)
http://content.dell.com/us/en/corp/d/bio...liaro.aspx
The GS analyst only had buy ratings on growth momentum names, ug's on valuation for an LBO which is the 11th largest of all time. Guess who growth names are catered to? You guys aren't dumb.
Take a look at the press release.. Go on linked in.
"Press" grabs a lead which hints at a takeout
Hits tape, algo's (auto set up desk) floods the stock to a 13 handle ("fishy" that all other "possible" M&A leaks only trade up 3-4%...)
Algo's rip you apart through the next 65 cents to 13.65 take out price

This is all public info but people still try to trade in and out of major liquid assets to make a profit because people have an irrational belief they are "smart". They can't seem to connect the dots. This includes things like silver and gold as well.

So for this thread, does anyone run a commodities fund with 2B+? Highly doubt it, but that's the only guy to talk to about this.

I am pissed now so i'm going to be a dick. If you don't understand the above I seriously think anyone taking advice from a random guy on the internet with no proof must have Down syndrome.

Post: #80

Im talking about all these automatic spending cuts

Post: #81

(02-28-2013 09:52 PM)chyamor Wrote:  Im talking about all these automatic spending cuts

It doesn't matter.

What if it gets reversed in 6 months you going to switch positions?

What if the sequester is 500B instead of $600B you going to change your A&D exposure?

What if bankin fees move to a 6% spread or a 8% spread going to change financial services?

Want of bond yields go up 40 bips going to change allocation?

What if we start reporting NOL's and they can now get reversed forever without recourse of tripping rule 182? Going to buy high tech?

What if cancer is cured and j&j cures it? What if my mom cures it?

What if a republican or democrat wins election going to load up?

What if you spent more time making money instead of looking at the market

Hope that clears things up.

Post: #82

(02-26-2013 05:56 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  When you sell an option contract

Well don't sell an options contract, you write an options contract it is an important distinction, not semantics.. now...

Quote:your account is instantly credited with cash that you get to keep. Essentially you are selling insurance to an investor. The investor pays the premium which goes instantly into your account. I can do this all day everyday. As long as I have enough capital in my account I can sell options.

I don't think MikeCF is professing to be from a position of superior knowledge. He is coming from a position of protecting vulnerable people.

part of this board, particularly amongst the higher repped, senior members, is they care. There are alot of young males here who seek guidance.

What you've described about sounds like you're writing naked options, which is extremely dangerous. I don't know if Mike knows this, and I've been rather indifferent to this thread until I saw this.

Writing naked options can wipe anyone out.

Post: #83

As defined by investopedia.

Definition of 'Writing An Option'
The expression "writing an option" refers to the act of selling an option. An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a particular trading instrument at a specified price, on or before its expiration.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/writ...z2MGphSWJw

As for actually doing them, yes they can wipe you out. If you are dumb and sell too many than yes you can get into big trouble. But if you do them on stocks you don't mind owning than what is the problem ? I personally sell naked as I don't hold stocks in my margin account and I am after premium. I can count on one hand how many times I have been put the stock and none even came close to blowing my account up. Also alot of guys use it to acquire the stock at a lower price because they want to earn it.

I haven't put any examples up yet, but I am looking at selling puts and buying calls on TLM. Just want the volatility to kick up a bit more so I can get a higher price for the puts. Of course I would walk through a step by step process and what the risks and rewards are.

For the record it is not even close to the strategies I use the most. I do a lot of spreads, condors, stangles, straddles. But if something like this comes along and I see big money making moves than yeah I will piggy back.

Post: #84

The strongest ISM index reading in 20 months today. The manufacturing survey is often looked to as a leading indicator of the economy, so it is very bullish to see such a strong reading.

Still seems like the path of least resistance is up despite all the noise coming out of the media.

Post: #85

A few interesting posts tonight on twitter from Ralph Acampora.

"DJIA made history today: Why? Because there are low interest rates and little or no inflation. Market's love this combination"

"This is still the 'most hated' bull market I have ever seen in my, close to 50 years in this business. This 'disbelief' is very bullish."

"This month the bull is 4 years old and there are no major signs of aging. Investors stay the course; recent leadership remains in place"

I keep hearing people trying to call a top in the market but I'm still very bullish.

When we finally see a larger pullback (later this month i expect) I'll be buying the Dip!!

Anyone share my view or do you see a huge market crash in the future? If so why?

Post: #86

(03-06-2013 12:06 AM)gsinplaya Wrote:  A few interesting posts tonight on twitter from Ralph Acampora.

"DJIA made history today: Why? Because there are low interest rates and little or no inflation. Market's love this combination"

"This is still the 'most hated' bull market I have ever seen in my, close to 50 years in this business. This 'disbelief' is very bullish."

"This month the bull is 4 years old and there are no major signs of aging. Investors stay the course; recent leadership remains in place"

I keep hearing people trying to call a top in the market but I'm still very bullish.

When we finally see a larger pullback (later this month i expect) I'll be buying the Dip!!

Anyone share my view or do you see a huge market crash in the future? If so why?

Why - having lived through the 89-91 and now 2008 to 2012 recessions one thing that happens is that a tremendous amount of pent up demand accumulates - basically the 20 somethings of 2008 were scared off of Real Estate and now prices are stabilizing - ironically recent reports are that 36% of current homes on the market are ALL cash sales and in 2006 it was only 17% - furthermore more than half of those current cash purchasers are investors seeking better than below inflation Money market and CD rates so looking to buy into a real estate market at the bottom recovery curve when demographic reports indicate that the USA is likely to have 500M people by 2050 with India, China and Latin America leading the wave and they are all savers and buy their own homes and businesses and more than willing to live above the shop. Also 78 million living Post WWII baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964 began to retire at 65 in 2011 - huge pent up demand for a retirement lifestyle (many snowbirds) downsized energy effiicient homes with $4+ heating fuel and want stay close to the kids and grandkids in the North during school/summer and spend the winters in the Sunbelt from FLA to AZ or even the Caribe and Latin American expat retiree enclaves.

Household formations drive consumption and consumers drive the USA economy - many Northeastern states not allowing enough new building permits to accommodate organic local industry growth further driving up household prices... and what is the dirty secret - most banks have made it near impossible for a Millennial/X/Y/Gens or anyone who took a credit hit post Sept 2008 to qualify for a mortgage with out a huge earning job in a stable industry. So the demand to upsize into the homes the boomers are downsizing from and the demand represented buy the 200 Million New Americans by 2050 and the demand represented by all the Korean and Japanese ultra high quality manufacturers looking for new industrial park and mega modern manufacturing facilities driven by the new 3D Printing revolution and by the aftermath of Fukushima and the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that blasted the Japanese economy - the future demand for residential commercial and industrial properties and new development is just in its infancy.

Will the Fed Dems and GOP manufacture political boom and bust cycles like they have over the past 100 years - most likely - so you must be intelligent in portfolio management but aware of the long boom ahead - China and India both now have around 1.2 Billion people each (Not to mention the EU and the rest of the Globe that needs raw land) - they need education food jobs homes and land and the USA and Canada have it in abundance and Canada benefits directly from massive NAFTA trade and the fact that they can rely on the USA for their defense so do not need Nukes or a globally capable armed forces and can provide cradle to grave education and healthcare and social services to Canada's people which is why out of the top 20 highest quality of life cities in the World fully 8 are in Canada.

Keep your eyes open, diversify, but get ready for one of the greatest mega recovery booms in human history in North America - Mexico too once they (Can-Mex-USA) get serious about crushing the NorAm drugs cartels.

Post: #87

Deleted dupe post.

Post: #88

Very interesting observation from arguably the greatest trader in the last 50 years.



   

Post: #89

(03-08-2013 02:54 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  Very interesting observation from arguably the greatest trader in the last 50 years.

Interesting points there. The divergences are definitely concerning but without confirmation it is not inherently bearish. There is still strong rotation across the leading stocks/sectors (GOOG, CRM, NFLX, GS, LNKD, AMZN, CELG, FAS etc) which tells me there is still some room for the market to grind higher.

I will however start to scale out of my intermediate term long positions when SPX moves above 1560 as I believe the risk/reward will no longer be favourable above that point.

Post: #90

Im starting to scale out of longs up here as the spx is at my target.... it looks like there is finally a bit of distribution coming into a lot of the Beta Stocks.

Im not ready to go all in short but will start stalking some ideas on the weaker stocks and will likely go all cash in my swing account at the end of day today.

Anyone got any good short ideas?

Post: #91

No retail investor should ever deal in options. You don't need to, you get raped on the b-a spread, and there's tiny liquidity in almost every case. If you want to buy a protective put on a locked-in stock position you can't sell that's really the only solid reason to get involved in the options market. over 95% of the profits go to the market-makers/pros, which has been shown by every study on the subject. You will NOT be the Chris Moneymaker of equity option volatility.

The single worst retail 'strategy' is selling covered calls. All of the downside risk, very limited upside. You couldn't formulate a dumber strategy if i gave you 1000 years and a million dollars to think of one. {not to mention the VIX is at record lows, to use one quant measure.} The market-makers aren't giving you free $$$ to take those positions, wake up.

Post: #92

What is the downside risk of a covered call ?

Post: #93

Also the vix might be at an all time low or close to it, but that doesn't mean the IV of an individual stock is anywhere near its lows.

Post: #94

(03-16-2013 03:50 PM)horn Wrote:  No retail investor should ever deal in options. You don't need to, you get raped on the b-a spread, and there's tiny liquidity in almost every case. If you want to buy a protective put on a locked-in stock position you can't sell that's really the only solid reason to get involved in the options market. over 95% of the profits go to the market-makers/pros, which has been shown by every study on the subject. You will NOT be the Chris Moneymaker of equity option volatility.

The single worst retail 'strategy' is selling covered calls. All of the downside risk, very limited upside. You couldn't formulate a dumber strategy if i gave you 1000 years and a million dollars to think of one. {not to mention the VIX is at record lows, to use one quant measure.} The market-makers aren't giving you free $$$ to take those positions, wake up.

go have a look at an option chain at an op-ex date and you will see that this "95% of options expire worthless" quote is completely false. I assume that is what you meant when you said all the $$$ go to the market-makers/pros.

there is no doubt that option trading can be risky though...just like going all in on margin it magnifies both gains and losses. having said that - for those who have mastered risk management it is a hugely powerful tool for leverage (as either a retail or institutional investor)

i trade options on a basket of around 30 - 40 stocks year round....never had problems with liquidity on options and only really have issues with the bid/ask spread on 1 or 2 (e.g. pcln,crm). no idea what options you are looking at.

Finally to comment on covered calls...you mention the VIX which in itself is a flawed tool for measuring any aspect of the market.

Implied Volatility is what matters when interpreting the cost of premium for options. These will differ from stock to stock depending on a number of factors. For instance a pharma stock with an upcoming catalyst will likely have a high IV and therefore high premium on options expiring behind this catalyst. This has nothing to do with VIX.

I've seen many traders make very good and consistent income with covered calls but not in the traditional way most people look at covered calls. They are certainly not buying high beta stocks and sitting on them - writing calls month after month.

not here to start an argument but I dont believe the information you are presenting is accurate.

Post: #95

Tech and telecom stocks seem to be making good inroads in the market.

Post: #96

Futures down over 20 handles on the cyprus bailout news...and indicating a big gap down in the market tomorrow morning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-17...-risk.html

It's interesting to see germany praising the cyprus deal saying that it will create a greater sense of accountability on every end.

I'm happy to have gone all cash on Thursday last week and will be watching closely to see how the market handles this news before putting on any new positions.

Post: #97

(03-17-2013 01:13 AM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 03:50 PM)horn Wrote:  No retail investor should ever deal in options. You don't need to, you get raped on the b-a spread, and there's tiny liquidity in almost every case. If you want to buy a protective put on a locked-in stock position you can't sell that's really the only solid reason to get involved in the options market. over 95% of the profits go to the market-makers/pros, which has been shown by every study on the subject.

go have a look at an option chain at an op-ex date and you will see that this "95% of options expire worthless" quote is completely false. I assume that is what you meant when you said all the $$$ go to the market-makers/pros.

I'm sorry you are intellectually challenged, but that's not what I meant. What I meant is exactly what I said. Notice the phrase 'expire worthless' does not appear anywhere in my post.

I have been an options professional: structuring, marketing, trading and sales for much of the past 15+ years, both on the buy and sell side, having started in IR swaps, caps and floors.

I am not a newb keyboard jockey like those that post in anonymous forums talking about how great they are and how much money they make trading vol against the professionals and giving horrid advice like 'Sell covered calls ZOMG free money!11!11!!!

Quote:i trade options on a basket of around 30 - 40 stocks year round....never had problems with liquidity on options and only really have issues with the bid/ask spread on 1 or 2 (e.g. pcln,crm). no idea what options you are looking at.

You're trading 1-2 contracts and you're ignorant enough to both give advice and lecture people who trade more in a week than you'll trade in a lifetime.

The mod had the right idea when he talked about deleting/blocking those who brag about how well they do in the markets. If any of you could systematically beat the markets, I'd show up with 8-figs of USD for you to trade. But you can't. You've been Fooled by Randomness.

Quote:I've seen many traders make very good and consistent income with covered calls but not in the traditional way most people look at covered calls.

No, you haven't. Unless they are market-makers or Quants working for Simons, Alan Howard or Dave Shaw. I invest with these guys, and you don't beat them at options trading. [Not Simons as he's closed to outside money now].

Quote:not here to start an argument but I dont believe the information you are presenting is accurate.

You are too ignorant to know the difference. But I'm glad your Fin 101 textbook and wiki allowed you to re-generalize my example from VIX to imp vol and act like you knew something more than a 15-minute search on the Net.

But, you can always prove me wrong, post your audited trading records for the past 5 years, you can do a password-locked file and I will happily apologize.

If you can systematically create alpha via an options-trading strategy that isn't based on beta, you will attract literally $hundreds of millions of dollars in funding. At 1.5% and 20% you can retire to your own private island with supermodels galore by 2018.

Post: #98

(03-17-2013 11:25 PM)horn Wrote:  

(03-17-2013 01:13 AM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(03-16-2013 03:50 PM)horn Wrote:  No retail investor should ever deal in options. You don't need to, you get raped on the b-a spread, and there's tiny liquidity in almost every case. If you want to buy a protective put on a locked-in stock position you can't sell that's really the only solid reason to get involved in the options market. over 95% of the profits go to the market-makers/pros, which has been shown by every study on the subject.

go have a look at an option chain at an op-ex date and you will see that this "95% of options expire worthless" quote is completely false. I assume that is what you meant when you said all the $$$ go to the market-makers/pros.

I'm sorry you are intellectually challenged, but that's not what I meant. What I meant is exactly what I said. Notice the phrase 'expire worthless' does not appear anywhere in my post.

I have been an options professional: structuring, marketing, trading and sales for much of the past 15+ years, both on the buy and sell side, having started in IR swaps, caps and floors.

I am not a newb keyboard jockey like those that post in anonymous forums talking about how great they are and how much money they make trading vol against the professionals and giving horrid advice like 'Sell covered calls ZOMG free money!11!11!!!

Quote:i trade options on a basket of around 30 - 40 stocks year round....never had problems with liquidity on options and only really have issues with the bid/ask spread on 1 or 2 (e.g. pcln,crm). no idea what options you are looking at.

You're trading 1-2 contracts and you're ignorant enough to both give advice and lecture people who trade more in a week than you'll trade in a lifetime.

The mod had the right idea when he talked about deleting/blocking those who brag about how well they do in the markets. If any of you could systematically beat the markets, I'd show up with 8-figs of USD for you to trade. But you can't. You've been Fooled by Randomness.

Quote:I've seen many traders make very good and consistent income with covered calls but not in the traditional way most people look at covered calls.

No, you haven't. Unless they are market-makers or Quants working for Simons, Alan Howard or Dave Shaw. I invest with these guys, and you don't beat them at options trading. [Not Simons as he's closed to outside money now].

Quote:not here to start an argument but I dont believe the information you are presenting is accurate.

You are too ignorant to know the difference. But I'm glad your Fin 101 textbook and wiki allowed you to re-generalize my example from VIX to imp vol and act like you knew something more than a 15-minute search on the Net.

But, you can always prove me wrong, post your audited trading records for the past 5 years, you can do a password-locked file and I will happily apologize.

If you can systematically create alpha via an options-trading strategy that isn't based on beta, you will attract literally $hundreds of millions of dollars in funding. At 1.5% and 20% you can retire to your own private island with supermodels galore by 2018.

cool mate...not interested in an argument as I said.

what do you believe is the best strategy for a retail investor from your experience?

Post: #99

(02-28-2013 01:58 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  I've done well in the past doing it on select Pharma Stocks but do it as more of a short term strategy with the aim to get called away within 1 or 2 months.

Usually with the pharmas the Premiums are high which makes them good candidates. Having said that there is a higher risk though.

I look for minimum 15% return on the trade.

2 example of trades in the past that I took that worked out well

ARNA, SRPT

It's not my main focus with trading but I agree it's a good income producer.

I got my clock cleaned with ARNA when the FDA declined to approve their weight loss drug, lost about 50%.

That led me to study Dividend Aristocrats like McDonalds, which will be surviving me along with the roaches after Raytheon engineers the next nuclear war.

Nothing against ARNA in general, but if you don't know what you're doing with volatile stocks you can lose a lot.

Post: #100

Horn-- we have to invest in something, I'm aiming for a slow accumulation of reliable income, what's your view on:

1) Buy and hold, like forever, on a Dividend Aristocrat like MCD with DRIP and selling covered calls.

2) Selling cash-secured puts on MCD, and when assigned, doing #1 until it gets called , then back to CSP....

Of course, all this should be after a major decline we are looking for after the recent new highs.

Thanks!