Bro it does not skyrocket but it does crash. Take a look that's why I told you to hold in USD and not spend.

Guilty..I bought today and sold at 735.

I didn't get you guys involved because this thread is too slow.

(12-16-2013 08:26 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Bro it does not skyrocket but it does crash. Take a look that's why I told you to hold in USD and not spend.

Guilty..I bought today and sold at 735.

I didn't get you guys involved because this thread is too slow.

I already have a plan that I am following, so I am NOT sure what the purpose of attempting to tell me to hold. You and I are in different stages of our investing, and i am building my investment pool... while you apparently already have your investment pool... I have NO reason to rely upon the price getting any lower than it is today. Does anyone?

It is quite a convenience for you to suggest that you bought and sold and made an additional profit today. Maybe it is true and it really did happen, but the coincidences are adding up to be a bit way too much for me to believe... especially when you are NOT laying it out exactly ahead of time...

I am NOT hating on you b/c it does NOT really matter to me that much if you are either lucky or skillful or a combination of both.. without really describing exactly what it is that you are doing to be able to predict.... . Nonetheless, I like to see guys make money, so if you made a little bit extra, then congratulations.

I remain in the buying mode, like I already mentioned. Ultimately, my amounts are small b/c they fit into my daily/weekly allotment; however, today, based on the market generally going down, I spent more than 3 times my minimum daily allotment - meaning that i invested about $700 today at various points throughout today.

Mech - keep updating this thread! Or if you have a twitter or something where you post your buys and sells let me know, I will open a twitter account just to follow that shit.

MechCoin to the MOON!

Price crashed hard, down to 650!

Haha... Hold. In USD I hope.

Jay Juan, look at your posts. By the time I read them you've lost money. Slow down please.

I'm looking to buy more BTC - hold until China wakes up? Coinbase at $640 and dropping

(12-16-2013 09:18 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  Mech - keep updating this thread! Or if you have a twitter or something where you post your buys and sells let me know, I will open a twitter account just to follow that shit.

MechCoin to the MOON!

Agreed. El Mech needs a twitter account.

This is a big one and it's going to change the dynamic of this forever. China is still playing around with the dump.

There's an expression.. US to metric.. "We don't want no foreign rulers" Seriously though.. How long did you think China would be in the game? It didn't even last as long as I thought.

If I just read Juan right, he said he's sticking to his strategy, but then also said he's breaking his strategy and buying more than his plan stipulates.

Mechcoin is up to 94 points soon.

Crucial thanks! Mechcoin would not even be possible without you guys!




All in USD, sleeping with one eye open!

(12-16-2013 10:29 PM)Fisto Wrote:  If I just read Juan right, he said he's sticking to his strategy, but then also said he's breaking his strategy and buying more than his plan stipulates.

Mechcoin is up to 94 points soon.

Fisto:

I understand that i have written a lot in this thread, and some of my postings may seem contradictory, especially if a guy is wanting to take issue with some technicality of what I may have said. In that respect, it is easier to pick apart something that is long and committed rather than something that is short and vague. I aspire to the former.

Overall, I am NOT attempting to deceive anybody regarding my description of my approach.

My overall strategy is outlined in this post, yet I am learning as I go and attempting to adapt my methodology.... but generally speaking and in a nutshell, I am front loading my BTC investment, investing more as BTC prices go down and less as BTC prices go up and overall daily dollar cost averaging...

If I am NOT mistaken, I believe Warren Buffet stated that he invests in the same strategy that I describe.. or some variation of it.. . Anyhow, there is some support for the methodology that I am attempting to follow.


By the way, if you look at bit charts shows that DogeCoin (whatever the fuck that is) overtook Bitcoin by triple market capitalization rates - 24 billion as compared with 7.8 billion. So maybe we should all move to DogeCoin? The website of DogeCoin surely sucks, even though it supposedly has a 24 billion dollar market capitalization. GO DOGECOIN!!!!

http://coinmarketcap.com/

Snapshot of current market capitalization rates

(EDIT: after I posted the chart from the coinmarketcap website went back to normal, and DogeCoin disappeared from the Chart... must be some kind of hacker attack):

(12-13-2013 08:42 PM)fortyfor Wrote:  

(12-13-2013 06:48 PM)cardguy Wrote:  I think Bitcoins are a bubble.

Anyone else think so as well?

as such my gut feelings are probably similar to alot of others as well. And once the herd starts moving in the same direction - it don't matter how smart you are. You better get out of the way.

About everyone else thinks as well, except for the dreamers
who bought a lot of Bitcoins and they are totally blinded by the
adrenaline ride, the greed is high and they fail to
see the hundreds of downsides of a virtual fiat currency
backed by nothing, which is highly unsafe and almost every economist
out there labeled it as unsafe and very risky:

This is how the bubble graphic looks like:

Few days ago I had several posts with reasons why Bitcoin will crash
down very hard

And surprise surprise, Bitcoint went down from ~995 $ to ~650 $

And it will continue going down, because of the many reasons which I outlined in my previous posts

What "Business Insider" are writing about BTC:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-i...ns-2013-11

On top of all these laws requiring the U.S. dollar to be used, the United States has a gigantic military that can force people around the world to use dollars (if it came to that) so yes, there's a lot of real-world value behind greenbacks.

Bitcoin? Nada. There's nothing keeping it being a thing. If people lose faith in it, it's over. Bitcoin is fiat currency in the most literal sense of the word.

But it gets worse. Bitcoin is mostly just a speculative vehicle. Yes, there are PR stunts about bars and other shops accepting bitcoins. And there is a Bitcoin ATM for some reason. But mostly Bitcoin is a speculative vehicle. And really, you'd be insane to actually conduct a sizable amount of commerce in bitcoins. That's because the price swings so wildly, that the next day, there's a good chance that one of the parties will have gotten royally screwed. Either the purchaser of the good will have ended up totally blowing a huge opportunity (by not holding longer) or the seller will be totally screwed (if Bitcoin instantly plunges). The very volatility that excited people to want to play the Bitcoin game is death when it comes to real transactions in the real world.

BTC China rates imply a $588 equivalent price - down 57% from its highs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-07...e-two-days

the epic move of BTC from $1155 to $576 hapenned in hours

(12-17-2013 06:22 AM)fortyfor Wrote:  BTC China rates imply a $588 equivalent price - down 57% from its highs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-07...e-two-days

the epic move of BTC from $1155 to $576 hapenned in hours

Yes, more of the subject matter of "I told you so" that inevitably, we anticipate that there are going to be ups and downs (volatility) in the BTC price.

Whether BTC is down for the count is going to take much longer to play out and to call it dead. FortyFor, you are much too early for making that proclamation..

Additionally, I do NOT know what time-period you are referring to regarding the drop from $1155 to $576 in BTC China, and most of us are NOT using BTC China as our reference point for our information about BTC price; however, yesterday, the "crash" on Bitstamp and BTC-e was from about $850 to $640 and then back up to largely fluctuate between $690 and $730. So maybe in a day, we would say about a 17% drop? temporary or NOT, who knows? we are in the midst of this.

It would be nice to know, exactly when this crash is going to happen, b/c several guys were shouting doom and gloom when BTC had reached the mid-$650s, yesterday, then a guy could have made 15% in the next 3-4 hours, by investing in BTC at $650 and selling at $740, if he were to time his transactions well. Good time to get into BTC, even though some people were saying to "hold dollars."

Yes, several guys, including you and El Mech seem to be predicting a crash in the coming days... but when is this crash going to come exactly? B/c even when guys are saying stay in dollars, I am NOT convinced, especially when the market just went up 15% in 3-4 hours.

All I see is volatility of ups and downs, and I would NOT call that a crash, exactly. Something is missing about any certainty as to when this crash is going to occur and how much of a crash it will be. It may be likely that a crash will occur, but I am NOT sure about what factors would allow any guy to solidly predict a crash as inevitable.

The price of BTC could shoot up again almost as easy as it could shoot down, and let's say it crashed upwards, it may NEVER return to today's rates. So, we will have to see.

A lot of us already expect volatility in the price of BTC, but a drop does NOT necessarily mean a crash that is long lasting or that a guy would be able to predict its bottom. Also, even if such a crash were to take place and BTC were to be down at $200 for a month or two, there may also be factors that would cause it to rise again. Then would that be the death nell of BTC?

None of us really know about where this price is going for sure or the long term viability of BTC, so I do NOT see the point of "I told you so" postings that just repeat the same already raised themes that are occurring in the midst of downward volatility. Sure BTC price is DOWN FOR THE MOMENT. Agreed, but it is also UP, depending on what time frame. If you look at the beginning or even middle of November, BTC is UP.

Because there is quite a bit going on with BTC, I expect this kind of BTC volatility for at least a couple of years.. that is if it continues to exist.


EDIT: After i posted, I saw where you got the $1155 to $576 price drop, and that was from the December 7 article describing something that happened on December 5 and 6 - two weeks ago. Ancient history in BTC news, and you did NOT describe that old news in context.... which seems that you are spewing out this old information merely for a fear mongering effect.

In the moment when I started saying that BTC will crash, it started to go down, and it lost over 400 $ in value.

One year from now, it will be again under 30 $.

http://business.time.com/2013/12/13/euro...n-dangers/

Most of Western Europe is against Bitcoin, the same is China.

Next... even the biggest fans will start losing faith... and then it will be all over:

Because the vast majority of BTC owners are not even using BTC... they are ONLY HOARDING IT,
dreaming it will go up, but there are no reasons to go up, but only to crash down:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch...ts/282364/

I think the biggest reason for the price drop is guys like el mechanico who are selling to get back in cheaper. Then we should get a bounce back when they get in again.

(12-17-2013 08:56 AM)fortyfor Wrote:  In the moment when I started saying that BTC will crash, it started to go down, and it lost over 400 $ in value.

One year from now, it will be again under 30 $.

http://business.time.com/2013/12/13/euro...n-dangers/

Most of Western Europe is against Bitcoin, the same is China.

Next... even the biggest fans will start losing faith... and then it will be all over:

Because the vast majority of BTC owners are not even using BTC... they are ONLY HOARDING IT,
dreaming it will go up, but there are no reasons to go up, but only to crash down:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arch...ts/282364/

We will never see that cheap coins again. I can guarantee you about that. I bought a subscription for a dating site myself yesterday using bitcoin.

Fortyfor,

You're wrong. Very, very wrong. And you will be proven wrong. Most annoying of it all is that the likes of you have been around since bitcoin started. Bitcoin isn't going down because of volatility, but because of China making trading nearly impossible. If I'd break Usain Bolt's legs before the 100M Olympic finals, did he lose because he was too slow or because he had a broken leg? You must argue the former.

The fundamentals of the bitcoin payment network have never been as good as today. See http://www.bitcoinpulse.com for example. I want to make a bet with you, are you up for it? We'll bet 1 BTC for it or the dollar exchange rate of the moment of taking the bet.

"Bitcoin will trade twice as high (MtGox in $) in the next rally as the highest peak of nov/dec '13."

Considering you're so cock sure of yourself, that's easy money.

Also, stop saying people hoard bitcoins. BitPay, Coinbase are processing records of new merchants every week. Accounting for 100M $. It's a total lie, only the most uninformed person could say that. If you keep lying I must assume you're a troll.

I have a screenshot in my phone I sent to some friends BTC @ 483 a month or so ago. Holy shit 483!

Now, The rise..I have a certain amount of money. Who cares if it's 300 or 80? It goes up and down fast so your job is to make money and when you're uncertain hold in USD.

Bubble? Who cares.

Indeed, I'm going to stop wasting time on all these bitcoin fundamentals. I'm going to make me some money.

Others can believe whatever they want.

I've been watching BTCCAST and China is NOT buying/converting money. It went to about 260 btc per minute to 0.

They will dump.

Dose that not mean standing still? Activity means up or down?

I got the feeling of down to, but no idea why..

Still, I am holding, last I sold was on 180. Not doing that mistake again.

I don´t think its gonna go much up until February/Mars now. The fear in the market will remain for a while.

(12-17-2013 09:48 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  I have a screenshot in my phone I sent to some friends BTC @ 483 a month or so ago. Holy shit 483!

The fundamentals show that the virtual hashes BTC that were pretending to be money, were and still are OVERVALUED like insanely crazy...

Of course BTC will continue to go down.

There is NO reason to ever go up again actually

(12-17-2013 12:09 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I've been watching BTCCAST and China is NOT buying/converting money. It went to about 260 btc per minute to 0.

They will dump.

In other words, you are saying that right NOW, the Chinese are holding BTC, for the most part, and if we were to attempt to time the market the BIG questions are:
1) WHEN will they start to dump, if at all,
2) HOW much will that dump, if it takes place, affect the BTC market - how much of a BTC price drop are we going to get out of that and
3) HOW LONG is that BTC price going to stay down... meaning when will it GO BACK UP, if at all, and how much will that going up be?

Maybe at any particular moment a guy is NOT going to be able to predict with such precision; however, yesterday, I was under the impression from El Mech that BTC price was dropping - when it was floating around $650 - maybe that was my misreading of the tea leaves... b/c tea leaves can be a bit ambiguous... and al contrare pretty much yesterday, $650 was the BTC bottom (and I am glad that I bought at that price.. contrary to adamant and persistent recommendations to hold dollars).

The impending and imminent price drop did NOT happen or continue - the opposite took place. BTC skyrocketted, more or less, up to $740 within a few hours and then for the past 12 hours, it kind of has been fluctuating, largely between $720 and $680 - where it remains.

In my assessment, there could be a crash up or a crash down - maybe the odds are greater for a crash down, but that is NOT certain. Since I am daily dollar cost averaging (DCA) I do NOT really care which, but if any guy is going to be saying that he can predict, he needs to give some kind of SOLID specifics before the up or down trend happens, rather than after it had happened.

I am saying that we DO NOT know, NONE OF US DO, and if we get it right, then great... guys can trade on that, if they think that there is some kind of track record upon which he can rely. B/c I do NOT recognize accurate predictions taking place, I am continuing with my methodology of DDCA b/c we DO NOT know, and I have a desire to be in BTC at the time that it crashes UP, if it were to go up, and as long as I continue to regularly invest, I am going to be in when the unpredictable time comes, and I am NOT going to hesitate b/c some one is telling me to stop b/c he wants me to switch into an uncertain methodology of timing the market (based on skill and or luck, which I claim to have neither) and the risk of BALLLS TO THE WALLS investing.

That BALLLS TO THE WALLS investing is A LOT easier to advocate if a guy is merely working with his profits, he is already sufficiently IN the game and HE is NOT planning to invest more. That is different from my situation and that is different from guys who still are contemplating getting IN, sooner rather than waiting for some crash that may or may NOT take place.

Dollar COST AVERAGING allows guys to begin to get in, right away.

(12-17-2013 12:48 PM)pants Wrote:  Dose that not mean standing still? Activity means up or down?

I got the feeling of down to, but no idea why..

Still, I am holding, last I sold was on 180. Not doing that mistake again.

I don´t think its gonna go much up until February/Mars now. The fear in the market will remain for a while.

YES. Even though any one of us may NOT be correct with our prediction(s), this prediction is fairly solid and reasonable and gives a timeline. Also, it shows uncertainty, which we should all feel with our predictions about BTC.... and it shows us that we do NOT want to get out of the BTC game - just b/c others are saying get out.. b/c we may end up getting screwed at $180 or whatever that "low" may be that at the moment, we do NOT know what that it is a low, rather than a high.

(12-17-2013 01:33 PM)fortyfor Wrote:  

(12-17-2013 09:48 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  I have a screenshot in my phone I sent to some friends BTC @ 483 a month or so ago. Holy shit 483!

The fundamentals show that the virtual hashes BTC that were pretending to be money, were and still are OVERVALUED like insanely crazy...

Of course BTC will continue to go down.

There is NO reason to ever go up again actually

FortyFor:

This is where YOUR prediction is LAME as LAME can get. I would like to take this bet, and what kind of odds are you gonna give me. I would do 100/1 that you are wrong, maybe even greater than that. BTC is going up again, and it is going up b/c there is a reason... several reasons.

BTC is going up as I write this post. I have been unable to buy all day b/c it has NOT gone below $670. The only way that BTC is going down is if there is some further govt intervention or corporate intervention or sabotage... otherwise.. it is going up... 99% sure about that.

Even if it stopped at $725, the current price, it is going to go up beyond $725. It is funny that you would have any credibility for stating an improbability as if that improbability were a certainty.


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