Bitcoin is red pill?

Pants,

This is the score since the last rally:

Pro: Bill Gates, Ben Bernanke, Ron Paul, Winklevii, Peter Thiel, Chamath Palihapitiya, eBay/PayPal, Bill Bonner, Al Gore, Fortress Investment Fund, 'Crazy Jim' Cramer, Paul Graham, Germany, Andreessen-Horowitz, Julian Assange/Wikileaks, O'Leary, Bill Still, libertarians, Nassim Taleb, McAfee, Bank of America's David Woo, Hugh Hendry. Also, mportant, because celebreties matter for popularizing: Snoop Dogg, Mel B, Ashton Kutcher *

Neutral: US FinCen, Russia, China, Austrians economists <50yo, most of the EU, most politicians

Anti: Austrian economists >50yo, Goldbugs, Moneygram, Thailand, Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, Apple, Business Insider, Ripple Labs, US financial TV-experts, most banks, Zero-Hedge, incoherent lemmings who keep repeating bubble/ponzi/pyramid on forums/blogs/twitter

Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy, of course, but I'm glad I'm in the pro-camp.

*I'm not counting guys like Rick Falkvinge, Jeffrey Tucker, Jeff Berwick or Max Keiser, because they're too much involved with pumping BTC.

Classic China pump and dump. Mt Gox is fantasyland. Are you guys watching?

(12-15-2013 07:28 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Classic China pump and dump. Mt Gox is fantasyland. Are you guys watching?

El Mech:
I don't understand the time-period about which you are referring or the sources for you to suggest any kind of BTC dynamic. The Chinese are only just waking up, and weren't they sleeping much during the time-period of the El Mech dump? As I write, its about 10am there.. so they are just getting up... of course they have time zones, but whatever.. its Monday morning, there... and nada...

All day today, I have been watching the BTC price and waiting for all of the Chinese to follow El Mech and to dump BTC in order that I will feel comfortable and happy to buy... and all day long, NO such volatility has happened, yet.... All day today, from what I have been able to see the BTC price has remained pretty flat fluctuating between $850 and 860.

(12-15-2013 08:25 AM)Neo Wrote:  Just did some quick calculations using the calculator and this chart that extrapolated the mining difficulty. Those mining cards are pre-order as well so won't reach the customers until February.

Basically doesn't seem worth it unless you want to spend some serious cash, or bitcoin price skyrockets.

Neo:

I do NOT want to be a naysayer about mining; however, let's just say hypothetically that a guy were just to invest the same amount of money into purchasing Bitcoin rather than purchasing a miner card, machine or whatever mining equipment, and thereafter, the guy gets the same price spike in BTC down the road, would the guy have been better off to just to have the extra BTC in his possession from having had refrained from purchasing the mining equipment rather than to rely upon the uncertainties of the number of miners in the future?

I mean the best bet that any miner has is that other miners get out of the business in order that his mining equipment is more rare, and seems a fat chance for that rarity to occur... So, in my thinking the best calculation and hope for a miner is to hope that others do NOT do it, rather than the rise in value of the BTC price being an appropriate measure of what to do. Am I missing something?

I do appreciate that some guys also have curiosity about learning about how mining works and some of them also want to engage in some activities to boost the overall BTC infrastructure, and they figure that they are getting those kinds of benefits out of investing in and participating in mining... and some of those less tangibles are NOT a bad thing to take into account.

JayJuan, Four dollars per BTC gain right now for having thousands out there. Is the risk worth it? I'll put a buy order in soon before I go to sleep..it will be low.

(12-15-2013 09:56 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  JayJuan, Four dollars per BTC gain right now for having thousands out there. Is the risk worth it? I'll put a buy order in soon before I go to sleep..it will be low.

I understand that when a guy is dealing with very large quantities, then the amount of profits can add up, even with a very small change in the price; however, I would caution that a guy has to consider the trading fee and the potential profits in terms of a percentage, and the trading fee is .2% on each end (buying and selling). If you really sold at $853, as you stated, then a $4 drop would represent a .46% gain. However, if you have trading fees on both ends (buying and selling), you are really only gaining .06% from a $4 change in price. Accordingly, you have to be dealing with very big numbers for .06% to be profitable.

On the other hand, if you believe that you made a mistake, and you want to get back into BTC before the getting is too late, then that is another story.

You seem to have different ideas than me about this getting in and out of BTC thing, so I believe that I have the wrong mindset in order to understand how a guy would want to get fully in or out unless he figured a larger gain... On the other hand, you would be breaking more or less even (with a .06% gain) if you were to get back in at $849, if that is the price number that we are talking about... but if you want to preserve b/c you anticipate that BTC is going up, then it may be prudent to get back in before its too late, if a price surge were to occur.

I'm telling you to use what you have and stop pouring money in. I have 900 dollars on me right now if someone wanted to sell me a Bitcoin for 700 in my cash money I'd say no way. My money is house money be smart and with 10 coins you can make stuff happen there is no need to push more in unless they go down to 100 bucks or so.

(12-15-2013 10:50 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I'm telling you to use what you have and stop pouring money in. I have 900 dollars on me right now if someone wanted to sell me a Bitcoin for 700 in my cash money I'd say no way. My money is house money be smart and with 10 coins you can make stuff happen there is no need to push more in unless they go down to 100 bucks or so.

El Mech:

If currently we really are in a BTC bubble, then you are correct.

I am betting that the price is going to continue to go up, even though it is going to have ups and downs, but I am NOT very certain that it is going to have the level of DOWNs that you are projecting.

So, if I stop investing my approximately 30K in BTC, then in what asset or asset class should I invest my 30K?

I was in the process of investing that money into Mutual funds, and I diverted it into BTC.

Additionally, I have some other investments that are tied to the US dollar and produce about 2 to 3K in quasi-passive income... but tied to the dollar and I am a little bit tired of having [b]so much of my assets tied into the dollar[/b].... accordingly, my intention is to diversify some of my investment away from the dollar and BTC seems to be fairly decent for this - another possibility may be to invest in gold or a foreign currency or maybe property in a foreign country... but i am NOT going to jump into foreign property very quickly and I do NOT know enough about how foreign currencies are pegged to the dollar or NOT. Anyhow, foreign property seems to be too illiquid for me and takes learning about that area and that foreign property.. which currently, I am in the US of A, so I cannot do that learning about foreign property very quickly to diversify out of the dollar.

I could also invest in various foreign assets.. but I also do NOT feel informed enough about any particular asset class, and Bitcoin seems as good as anything .... even in the short term, if I find something better, then I could pull out my assets, NO? unless it crashes, of course, which I am prepared for such b/c I am ONLY investing an amount that I am prepared to lose, and NOT beyond my diversification level (at least that is my assessment of my current diversification level).

EDIT:
BTW, currently, I have almost 7 BTC (NOT 10 BTC as you seem to have suggested). Also, if someone were to offer you to buy a BTC for $700, better take it right away - that is in the event that you can sell it right away for $850. Anyhow, my current average is $911 per BTC, so anything below $911, I find to be a good deal that will bring down my average invested BTC price. At this moment, as I write, if i were offered to buy BTC at $700. I would buy as much as I could muster up from my bank account on short notice - b/c I know that the exchange rate is $850 and largely has been hovering between $850 and $900 for about a week.

Good morning Juan.

(12-16-2013 08:43 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  Good morning Juan.

This thing crashing right when I am supposed to be sleeping.. .. which causes me to want to stay up to buy... I wanted to buy at $730, but i missed it by 30 seconds, and it was back up to $760

I can't keep track of El Mech.. but werent you getting back into BTC.. just in time for the drop?

Im still in USD. I put a panic order in at 830$ but cancelled it before I went to sleep.

When I get to work maybe I'll buy in I'll let you know.

OK. I've now decided after yesterday the price of bitcoins depends on two things.

1. People wanting in

2. People wanting out. This one is tricky and we need to take a good look at who owns Bitcoins. The answer is Keyboard jockeys and Chinese keyboard jockeys. That's why they are so unstable...

I saw a 2,2 million dollar sell wall on BTC-E yesterday. If that guy(or 7th grader) decided he was done the price would plummet. I have a feeling lots of dudes have that kind of cash in there that bought in at .01 or whatever.

So, I'm getting in their heads to influence my trading and I'm not "holding" anything other than USD.

Quote:BTC at $700. I would buy as much as I could muster up from my bank account on short notice

You've been quiet. Are you at the bank mustering?

(12-16-2013 09:56 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  OK. I've now decided after yesterday the price of bitcoins depends on two things.

1. People wanting in

2. People wanting out. This one is tricky and we need to take a good look at who owns Bitcoins. The answer is Keyboard jockeys and Chinese keyboard jockeys. That's why they are so unstable...

I saw a 2,2 million dollar sell wall on BTC-E yesterday. If that guy(or 7th grader) decided he was done the price would plummet. I have a feeling lots of dudes have that kind of cash in there that bought in at .01 or whatever.

So, I'm getting in their heads to influence my trading and I'm not "holding" anything other than USD.

You seem to be pretty good at day-trading coins. Pretty much spot-on in switching $ -> BTC -> $ -> BTC - > etc

What tools do you use?
- BTC-e
- Fiatleak (not working)
- Bitcoinity

Anything else?

(12-16-2013 01:09 PM)Maciano Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 09:56 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  OK. I've now decided after yesterday the price of bitcoins depends on two things.

1. People wanting in

2. People wanting out. This one is tricky and we need to take a good look at who owns Bitcoins. The answer is Keyboard jockeys and Chinese keyboard jockeys. That's why they are so unstable...

I saw a 2,2 million dollar sell wall on BTC-E yesterday. If that guy(or 7th grader) decided he was done the price would plummet. I have a feeling lots of dudes have that kind of cash in there that bought in at .01 or whatever.

So, I'm getting in their heads to influence my trading and I'm not "holding" anything other than USD.

You seem to be pretty good at day-trading coins. Pretty much spot-on in switching $ -> BTC -> $ -> BTC - > etc

What tools do you use?
- BTC-e
- Fiatleak (not working)
- Bitcoinity

Anything else?

Watching Volume a little better than before. Like I said before I'm getting into the other investors heads.

Also watching buy/sell orders but can't figure that out too good. If it goes to Four-something my coins will be double when I buy in. That's why I was telling JJ to chill on the daily spending.

China is in panic mode.

(12-16-2013 01:15 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 01:09 PM)Maciano Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 09:56 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  OK. I've now decided after yesterday the price of bitcoins depends on two things.

1. People wanting in

2. People wanting out. This one is tricky and we need to take a good look at who owns Bitcoins. The answer is Keyboard jockeys and Chinese keyboard jockeys. That's why they are so unstable...

I saw a 2,2 million dollar sell wall on BTC-E yesterday. If that guy(or 7th grader) decided he was done the price would plummet. I have a feeling lots of dudes have that kind of cash in there that bought in at .01 or whatever.

So, I'm getting in their heads to influence my trading and I'm not "holding" anything other than USD.

You seem to be pretty good at day-trading coins. Pretty much spot-on in switching $ -> BTC -> $ -> BTC - > etc

What tools do you use?
- BTC-e
- Fiatleak (not working)
- Bitcoinity

Anything else?

Watching Volume a little better than before. Like I said before I'm getting into the other investors heads.

Also watching buy/sell orders but can't figure that out too good. If it goes to Four-something my coins will be double when I buy in. That's why I was telling JJ to chill on the daily spending.

Me too. Buy/Sell walls are a bit tricky, b/c so many fake orders out there to confuse other traders. But how did you figure out yesterday, it would fall to $400 or 500? That's a pretty good call. The volatility is unpredictable, but you seem to figure it out on the big swings.

All just by checking volume?

You also must hold all your coins on BTC-e. I think that's a bit tricky considering all these exchanges get hacked so often.

Gonna crash again. Watch.

Meanwhile at Jay Juans place

LOL

Reminds me of April. These days are pretty hard on people who are new to this game.

This is also why I don't care about the price too much, it's the network that counts. Exchange rate makes heads explode: the Chinese are indeed in full panic mode. Crazy on the way up, crazy on the way down.

If MtGox would be DDoS-ed today, like april, there'd be a perfect storm. I bet we'd be able to buy in very, very cheap tomorrow.

Mac, are you in USD?

El-Mech,

Unfortunately no, but I should be. I could've doubled the last week.

I've got my coins in Bitcoin-QT. It takes a long time to synchronize, by the time I'm synchronized exchange rates bounced up & down again.

(12-16-2013 01:49 PM)Maciano Wrote:  El-Mech,

Unfortunately no, but I should be. I could've doubled the last week.

I've got my coins in Bitcoin-QT. It takes a long time to synchronize, by the time I'm synchronized exchange rates bounced up & down again.

Right, I told you guys to use BTC-e like 10 times. This shit moves too fast to play games.

El Mech,

True.

I was too busy trading shitty altcoins. Missed the big one right here.

Anyway, I'm going move part of my coins to BTC-e tonight. Too late for this, but I'm in it for the long term anyway.

Jay lost 1700 so far today for not listening to me. I didn't even get a rep point.

Damn down to 660, lightcoins down to 23. Maybe costs on those GPUs will come down. I am still gonna build my ghetto machine but this action is crazy lol. I bet Tigerdirect, Amazon and Newegg will be getting a lot of returns since most will take stuff back within 30 days.