(12-16-2013 02:34 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay lost 1700 so far today for not listening to me. I didn't even get a rep point.

You nailed it. Pretty impressive, Wish i had listened...

El-Mech is pretty spot on re Bitcoin. That makes me say: he's got the BTC trading down, better than most of us.

If I get him correctly:
- Bitcoin-QT wallets are shit for trading. (I knew that... Safe, but shit.)
- Put (some of your coins) on BTC-e (or good site like it) that makes exchanges from $ <=> BTC possible
- Watch the volume + exchange rate, best signal for swapping
- China matters. A lot.
- Early bird nerds want out of BTC to cash into $$. (I doubt this, but I'm listening).

What else am I missing here El-Mech? I'd like to deduce what makes your system work.

^ That's about it but using BTC-e is kinda key to this working. Also watch the trollbox and learn how to interpret it.

What's going to happen when China wakes up????????? I'll be is USD for sure but they might pump and buy up "cheap" btc. I'm not sure.

Also Bitcoinity. Use that switching from BTCE to Gox to China fast to see trends and who's following who.

Well played el mech! Maybe I listen to you next time.

Just hard taking investing advice from "Maybe I get drunk tonight and go all in!"

(12-16-2013 03:29 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Also Bitcoinity. Use that switching from BTCE to Gox to China fast to see trends and who's following who.

Good recommendation on Bitcoinity... I had NOT been using that, but I see that it does allow fast switching... seems pretty good to get a quick assessment of various exchanges.

Sorry I just think it is funny when you click http://bitcoinity.org/

The first thing you see is this.

   

Which on this day is appropriate but really it was to explain how they changed the presentation of data. But my eyes totally focused on the "Don't Panic" part.

(12-16-2013 01:04 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Quote:BTC at $700. I would buy as much as I could muster up from my bank account on short notice

You've been quiet. Are you at the bank mustering?

I was sleeping and then I woke up and FUCK – market all over the place with ups and downs.. mostly downs.. FUCK – missed some buying opportunities.

Yes, I stand by my statement that a guy should buy as much as he can at $700 when the price is $850. Now circumstances have changed when the whole market had been up and down around $700. That is a different story. Now, I continue to employ the daily dollar cost averaging (DCA) investment tactic that I already discussed continuing to buy while prices are dropping and sell while rising (well as I stated, I am NOT selling too much at the moment but would NOT buy as much when the market is going up). I missed the drop to $680, and then fuck, it went back to $750, and finally, I was able to buy some at $712 and then some at $680 when it dropped back down. My next buying point for today is $650, if it gets there, which I hope, but it is currently back in the $700s.

Maybe the price is still dropping, and that’s fine with me for buying a little extra, but I am NOT going to go hog wild at whatever price point because I do NOT know when it will stop dropping or when it is at bottom. that’s the point of DCA-ing – NOT to put too much skin in any direction at any particular time. I never stated that I could predict BTC price, but I predicted that in my view it was very unlikely that it would drop below $250 at any time in the near future. I stand by that prediction, even though predictions are sometimes wrong.. and I do NOT really care if I am wrong about a prediction because I am NOT trying to beat anyone - but I am putting my money where my mouth is…. and I am investing only as much as I feel that I can lose.

(12-16-2013 01:15 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 01:09 PM)Maciano Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 09:56 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  OK. I've now decided after yesterday the price of bitcoins depends on two things.

1. People wanting in

2. People wanting out. This one is tricky and we need to take a good look at who owns Bitcoins. The answer is Keyboard jockeys and Chinese keyboard jockeys. That's why they are so unstable...

I saw a 2,2 million dollar sell wall on BTC-E yesterday. If that guy(or 7th grader) decided he was done the price would plummet. I have a feeling lots of dudes have that kind of cash in there that bought in at .01 or whatever.

So, I'm getting in their heads to influence my trading and I'm not "holding" anything other than USD.

You seem to be pretty good at day-trading coins. Pretty much spot-on in switching $ -> BTC -> $ -> BTC - > etc

What tools do you use?
- BTC-e
- Fiatleak (not working)
- Bitcoinity

Anything else?

Watching Volume a little better than before. Like I said before I'm getting into the other investors heads.

Also watching buy/sell orders but can't figure that out too good. If it goes to Four-something my coins will be double when I buy in. That's why I was telling JJ to chill on the daily spending.

China is in panic mode.

I am NOT hating on El Mech; however, you can read throughout this thread and see El Mech making a large number of amorphous statements, and who knows exactly what he is doing, and after the market moves he said that he did something that was a win in that direction.. without specifics and an exact commitment before the thing actually happened. Who the fuck knows?
Yes, he made several suggestions to me, and then I explained what I was doing, and asked him for specific suggestions within the realm of my objectives - nada…

Again, no hating; however, I do become a little bit irritated when I read various gratuitous statement of “I told you so” about my investment strategy, when I am playing for the long run, and I keep saying that I want the price to drop to buy more… And, in any event, I am NOT trying to be right about this.. just employing a long term strategy…. . so where is the “I told you so,” exactly?
I have been fairly specific about my investment strategy, and I am NOT trying to beat anybody in any kind of competition. I also do NOT mind if other guys do better than me… that is fine.. that is to be expected with balls to the wall investing that some will do better and some will do worse, and as I already suggested, it is my belief that the law of averages is that dollar cost averaging is going to be better in the long run for me and my risk profile.

I am just saying what my plan is within a system, and trying to stick with my prestated plan. And, I have also explained with considerable detail about what various specifics of that plan is, and I intend to keep following it – though from time to time, I may tweak it based on learning (hopefully).

Surely, it is possible to be able to time any market to some extent with the right information and possibly with a bit of luck and to have your money in an exchange to be able to move that money quickly from one asset to another. But in essense, El Mech has been saying nearly the same thing for several days and amorphous variations of such about sell, sell, sell. Yes, if a guy had already invested at $100 or whatever, his situation is different from the guy who began investing at $1200. El Mech was saying sell, sell, sell, while the market was going up from $850 to nearly $1,000 but after the fact, he kept saying that he had NOT sold… after the market had moved up. That is fine, whatvever and to each his own.. but in my view it is unbecoming for anyone to gloat in the event that some guy(s) may NOT have played the market or any particular investment very well, when guys are making investments with real time and with real money and even psychology.. then to say “I told you so” about some amorphous prediction becomes somewhat irritating.
Yes, sooner or later the stopped clock is going to be right (twice a day), and in my opinion, in the process or the heat of the moment, guys do NOT need to be told that they are “losers.” Whether El Mech or anyone else has perfect timing, I do NOT know, and it is NOT going to be my aim in the long term to emulate such (because I do NOT have confidence in my ability to employ such good timing), even though from time to time, sporadically, I may attempt to employ some of those timing tactics (but on a smaller scale).

(12-16-2013 01:41 PM)Maciano Wrote:  LOL

Reminds me of April. These days are pretty hard on people who are new to this game.

This is also why I don't care about the price too much, it's the network that counts. Exchange rate makes heads explode: the Chinese are indeed in full panic mode. Crazy on the way up, crazy on the way down.

If MtGox would be DDoS-ed today, like april, there'd be a perfect storm. I bet we'd be able to buy in very, very cheap tomorrow.

I have already disclosed my method which has been buying on the way down. I did NOT make a big investment on the upside but I wanted to get in, which I did, and I have been daily dollar cost averaging (DCA). As I keep saying, I am playing long-term (thinking two years-ish), NOT short term, and I have been open about what I am doing on a fairly regular basis, and if you can tell me exactly when a crash will occur or when an uptick will occur before it happens and why it will happen then I am all ears and I will play that information accordingly.

With BTC, so far, NO ONE in this thread, including El Mech, has been able to make those kinds of UP / DOWN predictions, before they happen.. I do NOT become upset during drops in price because that is what I want. The only thing about drops in price, so far that I have been experiencing is that I may reach my daily, weekly buying limit(s) and NOT be able to buy at the exact bottom to maximize, especially if it keeps going down and I am NOT really able to know whether the bottom has been reached.

Actually, was MtGox DDos-ed in recent days? I did NOT see such news. That was April, and in recent days, there has been NO real and/or meaningful negative news regarding BTC – unless I am missing something???? , so at the moment it appears that the fall in BTC prices is mere hype rather than based on some fundamentals

(12-16-2013 02:34 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay lost 1700 so far today for not listening to me. I didn't even get a rep point.

Again, this kind of gloating is unbecoming, and I am NOT planning to cash in any time soon, so even if the market goes to $200 per BTC, I have NOT “lost” that money, because that is NOT how I am playing it. Just for an update, my average BTC purchase price at the moment is $894, so maybe I should gobble up a bunch at $700… but I am NOT playing that method either because I have already made several DCA purchases today.

I’m sticking with my investment plan, unless someone can tell me specifically where the price is going … so I can make a killin? Go on, tell me before such change happens and tell me why and when, and we will see whether that prediction happens.

I keep saying that I am also hoping for price drops, so I can buy more BTC within my daily buy limits. Surely, I may be wrong with my strategy and NOT get as big for the gains as the balls to the walls investors, yet as I keep mentioning, El Mech and I are playing different investment strategies, so what good does it do to gloat? I am NOT trying to beat anyone. I am just disclosing as I go with this DCA-ing strategy.

Here ya go guys...
http://btccast.com/

Watch China on Bitcoinity all the sells are big and buys are small yet small buys are bring the number up. Seems fishy.

Damn Juan, why do you even bother posting here? You're like one of these guys in the game forum that can't get women but insist it's not their game that's causing them to strike out.

El Mech has sent me buy/sell texts and I've done it with great success.

Horse to water and all that

"Actually, was MtGox DDos-ed in recent days? I did NOT see such news. That was April, and in recent days, there has been NO real and/or meaningful negative news regarding BTC – unless I am missing something???? , so at the moment it appears that the fall in BTC prices is mere hype rather than based on some fundamentals"

FTR, I wasn't aiming at you. I, myself, have learned BTC the hard way. I'm still here, more convinced than ever.

Fact is, El-Mech's been right a lot & it makes sense (at least, to me) to listen to people who are right -- I don't care who they are: predictive power is king.

MtGox has NOT been DDOS-ed recent days. In april this year, they most certainly were. Oh man, that was a perfect storm. Brutal. In less than 10hrs BTC dwindled 60%, 80% overall -- from 266 to 50$

Read here http://bitcoinmagazine.com/4113/the-bitc...amination/

As you can read, the main problem causing the crash was: MtGox, sole main exchange at the time + DDOS + closure at peak mania + mega panic after people wanting their money back ASAP. The Chinese, are the main drivers behind recent bitcoin rally, they're very dependent on BTC China because of many Chinese regulation stopping them from shopping around to non-Chinese exchanges. If they're not allowed by their gov to exchange in bitcoin you could get a similar effect as in April with BTC China as sole main exchange + peak mania + people wanting their money out ASAP. That's why I referred to the DDOS of MtGox in April. That was the straw that broke the camel's back at the time.

But fear not. The highest high of april (266$) would be an unthinkable lowest low today. And we're only 8 months further. Bitcoin will crash -- upwards. Again.

China flatlined, confused.

(12-16-2013 05:11 PM)Fisto Wrote:  Damn Juan, why do you even bother posting here? You're like one of these guys in the game forum that can't get women but insist it's not their game that's causing them to strike out.

El Mech has sent me buy/sell texts and I've done it with great success.

Horse to water and all that

Are you saying that dollar cost averaging does NOT work?

I am NOT trying to sell DCA on anybody, yet I have used it for years in other kinds of investments. It seems to have worked pretty well for me... in those other investments, and to me it seems applicable to BTC, too.

Also, in post 700, above, I outlined how DCA would have played out with $2,700 in 2013.... Surely, there are other scenarios to employ DCA and see how it plays out... but my outline just gives guys some ideas about ways to employ DCA to a real scenario.

Additionally, I have already conceded that if a guy is lucky and gets his timing right, then he will make more than the DCA method, but a lot of guys are NOT going to want to play such a risky path.

In any event, I don't mind stopping with my posting about DCA in this thread, if guys believe that my postings about DCA method is NOT helpful to their thoughts on the topic of Bitcoin investing.

I'm calling bullshit on BTC China! No fucking way are they flat!

@ Jay I wasn't trying to AMOG you with the 1700 comment just adding some spice to a boring thread.

By the way, it sure would be nice if I were able to find some app for my I phone that would buzz an alarm if the price of BTC goes above or below a certain alarm set point.. that way, I do NOT have to monitor the shit so frequently.


I tried this app on the Iphone called Coinbits, which supposedly has that feature, and the alarm was going off all of the time, even when the price was NO WHERE near the alarm set points.

I had to shut off that alarm b/c it was more irritating than my manually monitoring BTC price periodically.

The Chinese are like this right now

(12-16-2013 05:31 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  @ Jay I wasn't trying to AMOG you with the 1700 comment just adding some spice to a boring thread.

All good, and NO problem with spicing up matters and adding a few numbers for illustrative purposes.... it does help to show the gravity of the price drop scenario to lose (on paper) that quantity in a few hours.

Reason for the fall in China:

http://www.coindesk.com/china-bans-payme...ces-claim/

The PBOC are slowly putting the squeeze on bitcoin. They want the Yuan to be the reserve currency of the world and they probably don't want any competition from bitcoin. If the PBOC continues to put the screws into bitcoin, the price of bitcoin could fall back to $200-$300 range it was at before the Chinese got in.

BTC China is straight up manipulating the price!!!! Hold USD!!!!

Mech, Juan said you just "got lucky".

(12-16-2013 06:13 PM)Fisto Wrote:  Mech, Juan said you just "got lucky".

I'm NOT sure what point you want to make by misquoting me. You did the same in another of your postings, recently.

If guys want to follow El Mech, then that is their choice, and if he is sending you a precise and specific PM that is benefiting with you, that will be your choice to follow such.

And right NOW he is saying hold dollars... which some guys may want to do.

(12-16-2013 06:08 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  BTC China is straight up manipulating the price!!!! Hold USD!!!!

BTC China is trying to prevent a "run on the exchange" (i.e., everyone pulling out of BTC China). Read the article I posted above. The PBOC are making it harder and harder to cash out of bitcoin and into fiat in China.

I didn't misquote you. You inferred that mech got lucky.

(12-16-2013 06:26 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 06:08 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  BTC China is straight up manipulating the price!!!! Hold USD!!!!

BTC China is trying to prevent a "run on the exchange" (i.e., everyone pulling out of BTC China). Read the article I posted above. The PBOC are making it harder and harder to cash out of bitcoin and into fiat in China.

The news is based on rumor rather than any official govt statement. This may be a short-term drop in BTC..... I'm gonna stick with my plan to keep buying as the price drops... though maybe a lesser amount of BTC in hope of buying a larger quantity down the road.

If this news is true, then more difficult in china to get money in and out of the exchanges... yet, I am NOT sure whether, with this approach, they are attempting to stop any run on the bank... at least NOT from the phrasing of the article... b/c cashing out of BTC still seems to be allowed.. the details are NOT clear b/c so far NO official statement.

Jay Juan , there is a LTR and a hit and quit. Right now we have to do both at the same time.

(12-16-2013 08:07 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay Juan , there is a LTR and a hit and quit. Right now we have to do both at the same time.

So here's where the devil is in the details, and for how long are guys supposed to hold on to their dollars? This market is 24/7, and so how long does it take for bad news to sink in? 1 day? 1 week? I suppose just keep watching the various indicators in the market in order to decide when to buy BTC?

(12-16-2013 06:08 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  BTC China is straight up manipulating the price!!!! Hold USD!!!!

The signs are NOT very clear to me, b/c even in the past 6 hours, since my last purchase at $680, the price has NOT even come down to my next buy point, which was going to be at $650. I kept hoping that BTC would come down so that i could buy at that price point, and in the past 6 hours, it has just been fluctuating up and down between about $730 and $660.

So when does the next red light green light apply? In the meantime, I am just going to stick with my outlined algorithm to buy at $650, if it gets there, at some point.


When you buying back in? Next week? Two days from now? What if in the meantime BTC skyrockets, and you are NOT in? That decision would NOT be a loss, but it is also NOT a gain.
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