Post: #201

(11-01-2013 06:12 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  now BOTH the Dow and S&P are near/at all-time highs, DESPITE the Sequester and Gov't shutdown. (the Russel 2K did LOSE 2% THIS WEEK). time for buying ???

There are not many bargins in the USA market these days.

Better to look at other markets, eg Mexico, South Korea or Brazil.

You can easily buy these markets via ETFs (eg. EWZ is for Brazil http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA...G8uglQXgYg)

Post: #202

What do you guys think about the twitter IPO?
Social media IPOs have proved to be profitable. LinkedIn and Facebook as an example.

Post: #203

(11-01-2013 07:37 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(11-01-2013 06:12 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  now BOTH the Dow and S&P are near/at all-time highs, DESPITE the Sequester and Gov't shutdown. (the Russel 2K did LOSE 2% THIS WEEK). time for buying ???

There are not many bargins in the USA market these days.

Better to look at other markets, eg Mexico, South Korea or Brazil.

You can easily buy these markets via ETFs (eg. EWZ is for Brazil http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA...G8uglQXgYg)

sounds interesting... but what would happen to these Emerging Markets if the Fed finally lives up to its promise of ending QE sometime in 2014 ??? would you get out ???

(11-02-2013 10:42 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  What do you guys think about the twitter IPO?
Social media IPOs have proved to be profitable. LinkedIn and Facebook as an example.

IIRC most of the IPO's are sould to insiders. by the time regular folks can buy into them, they could take a tumble

Post: #204

I will say two things:

On emerging markets and usa QE3.

The continue growth in emerging market is more dependent on CHINA and commodities prices than on USA fiscal/monetary policies.

To the extent that US QE3 infinity affects the emerging markets, it is negative, why? because the devaluing of the USD through QE3 makes the US export competitive, and this is a negative for these emerging economies because they are export-based economies. So, in that regards, ending the QE3 infinity will actually take away some of the competitive export pressure(or currency war) from the emerging markets economy.

ON SOCIAL MEDIA IPOs.

I will leave it to the wallstreet boys here to answer that. Personally, i never buy IPOs. I will wait for things to settle and all the skeletons to come out(if there are skeletons).... before stepping in. There are already listed companies with established track record of strong earnings growth already trading on the exchange,..... I prefer those to a new, hot IPO that i cannot really do any due diligence on.

respectfully,

--Nemencine

Post: #205

(11-02-2013 02:07 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  sounds interesting... but what would happen to these Emerging Markets if the Fed finally lives up to its promise of ending QE sometime in 2014 ??? would you get out ???

No, I would not get out. Any equity investment I make I hold for at least 3 years...Im not a trader.
I think it is a good idea to invest a portion of your portfolio into foreign stocks. If you don't like Emerging Markets, then consider Europe and Australia.

But the main point in my previous post was that there are not many bargains in USA now, so a good strategy could be to hold off on putting new money to work there or be very selective and not buy stocks that have run up to fast, eg Tesla

(11-02-2013 10:42 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  What do you guys think about the twitter IPO?
Social media IPOs have proved to be profitable. LinkedIn and Facebook as an example.

Nemencine is right - wait for it to settle.

However, from the Economist :

"But investors who like volatility may still want to take a flutter on Twitter’s stock even if the price is somewhat higher. Given all of the hype around the company, Twitter’s shares could spike upwards immediately after its IPO, allowing investors to mint money by buying and selling quickly. So Twitter’s flotation could be a great short-term trading opportunity. But at anything above $18 each, its shares will be a poor long-term investment."

http://www.economist.com/news/business/2...oing-cheep

Post: #206

(11-02-2013 10:42 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  What do you guys think about the twitter IPO?
Social media IPOs have proved to be profitable. LinkedIn and Facebook as an example.

The Facebook IPO and performance wasn't so great for a while. At one point it was way below IPO price.

Post: #207

(11-02-2013 04:18 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:42 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  What do you guys think about the twitter IPO?
Social media IPOs have proved to be profitable. LinkedIn and Facebook as an example.

The Facebook IPO and performance wasn't so great for a while. At one point it was way below IPO price.

Facebook was very aggressive in their IPO pricing. They raised as much money as possible, not giving a shit about price action afterwords. Many long term investors exited in the IPO. Twitter's pricing will be more conservative as its biggest shareholders aren't selling in the IPO and are adamant the offering isnt like FB.

While I'm not a huge fan of Twitter's long term business prospects, 2013's been a record year for IPOs, and I'd like to get a slice of the pie at IPO pricing from my broker. $TCS, (The Container Store) doubled on the open on Friday. TCS is a physical store that LOSES money selling fucking containers, and it doubled...Similarly shitty companies have had great IPO performance (Potbelly, Noodles & Co, etc) .... says something about over exuberance for IPOs nowadays.

Post: #208

(11-02-2013 04:44 PM)trader Wrote:  While I'm not a huge fan of Twitter's long term business prospects, 2013's been a record year for IPOs, and I'd like to get a slice of the pie at IPO pricing from my broker. $TCS, (The Container Store) doubled on the open on Friday. TCS is a physical store that LOSES money selling fucking containers, and it doubled...Similarly shitty companies have had great IPO performance (Potbelly, Noodles & Co, etc) .... says something about over exuberance for IPOs nowadays.

Yeah, its like 1999 all over again!!

Post: #209

A treat for you all I made earlier.

Post: #210

Aswath Damodaran has written a great post on the Twitter IPO.

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.au/2...-game.html

His conclusion :

Quote:So, now that we have a sense of where Twitter will be priced and what will happen on the offering date, what next? Here are the four options:

1) Try to get an allotment of shares at the offering price: While the odds may be in your favor, it is definitely not a risk free or costless strategy and please do pay heed to some of the suggestions in this post.

2) Wait until the offering date and play the momentum game: The trading game begins on opening day and stocks like Twitter are a momentum investors' dream (and nightmare) as prices are moved up and brought down by wisps of information and mood changes. If you are good at this game, you can play it for profit, as long as you do not let delusions of being an investor get in the way.

3) Buy the stock as a long term investor: I do not have a deep rooted aversion to buying young or money losing companies, if the price is right. Given my estimate of value ($18/share), the stock would be, at best, a fair value at the offering price and I can think of far less ulcer-inducing investments that earn their fair value. That does not mean that Twitter will never be on my radar. If the momentum game turns against the stock and the price drops to $10/share, I will be ready to buy.

4) Entertainment/ educational value: I am enjoying and will continue to enjoy every moment of this IPO for sheer entertainment value, as I listen to analysts make hilariously ill conceived arguments for or against the stock and portfolio managers act as if they are making reasoned judgments about value while desperately checking out momentum indicators. This is the ultimate reality show and I am just waiting for Ashton Kutcher, Kanye West and Lady Gaga to show up as Twitter IPO experts on CNBC.

Post: #211

When do we all start shorting Twitter and buy our own private islands?

Post: #212

I'd say right now, if it follows the same story as facebook it will have to go down to it's original price (26) or lower.

Post: #213

Freelancer.com soared up to 400% on its IPO today :

Quote:Online jobs portal Freelancer.com has made a strong debut, surging as much as 400 per cent as investors scrambled for a slice of the world's biggest freelancing and outsourcing marketplace by number of users.

Freelancer is essentially a marketplace that allows people to post a task – whether it's a graphic design task, a legal job, some coding – and have freelancers from around the world bid on it.
It says it connects more than 9.4 million employers and freelancers in 247 countries, regions and territories.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/f...2xl67.html

Post: #214

(11-15-2013 12:59 AM)Steve9 Wrote:  Freelancer.com soared up to 400% on its IPO today :

Quote:Online jobs portal Freelancer.com has made a strong debut, surging as much as 400 per cent as investors scrambled for a slice of the world's biggest freelancing and outsourcing marketplace by number of users.

Freelancer is essentially a marketplace that allows people to post a task – whether it's a graphic design task, a legal job, some coding – and have freelancers from around the world bid on it.
It says it connects more than 9.4 million employers and freelancers in 247 countries, regions and territories.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/f...2xl67.html

400% in one day would have been a good day for any day trader who was able to play that one correctly.

Post: #215

As if retail investors can take advantage of IPO bumps.

The ones that make $$$ in IPOs are the wealthy that subscribe to them and then quickly dump them asap.

Oh and the company IPOing

Post: #216

(11-15-2013 02:20 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  As if retail investors can take advantage of IPO bumps.

The ones that make $$$ in IPOs are the wealthy that subscribe to them and then quickly dump them asap.

Oh and the company IPOing

I think that I am with you Emancipator, more or less.

I find that a lot of the various stock market stories are fantasy b/c generally many aspects of the current market system is rigged in favor of insiders and we have too much illegal manipulation (that is NOT prosecuted) going on in which wealthy insiders are making money on both ends, the ups and the downs (betting against something while they are selling it to smugs), and yes, maybe every once in a while some lucky smug is able to get lucky and to time his trade correctly.

That is one of the reasons that I am NOT into day trading b/c it seems too much like the lottery - even though there is potential that a guy could learn enough to play his cards right... So far in life, I have NOT been inclined to invest my energies in that chasing the market direction..

Post: #217

I tried day trading, I think I would've had more luck playing roulette at the casino

Completely rigged and there are too many trading robots out there that will get in and out before you can make a profit, better to invest long term (by doing a proper research on a company).

Post: #218

could the USD be on the rebound ???

a big chunk of the US trade defeceit is all the crude oil we import to fuel our industry. but for the first time since the mid-1990's, crude oil imports are below 50% of the total consumed. could this lower the trade defeceit and strengthen the USD ???


crude imports down
http://money.msn.com/investing/news.aspx...d=17104538

Post: #219

yesterday the Nasdaq closed above 4,000 for the first time since the Fall of 2000 and both the Dow and S&P500 are at new record highs
home prices are at 7-year highs

when the Fed ends QE in 2014, interest rates will likely rise

Bubble ???

Post: #220

I wanted to revive this thread to ask if anyone had any ideas what sectors should be good buys in early 2014.

Back in 2012, I did well in REITs and energy. But I stumbled onto these stocks.

I'm now having a hard time navigating the massive amount of info on The Street, Seeking Alpha, WSJ, so if anyone wants to recommend a good source, feel free to do that, too. Often, I'll come across info that contradicts other info so I wind up buying nothing.

Post: #221

I have shares of GLW (corning). Good cash position, low debts, long-term management.

The big ? is how will GLW step away from display technologies (TV/monitors etc).

Its has a very reasonable P/E w/decent cash-flow. Its worth a look...

Post: #222

(12-06-2013 05:08 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I wanted to revive this thread to ask if anyone had any ideas what sectors should be good buys in early 2014.

Back in 2012, I did well in REITs and energy. But I stumbled onto these stocks.

I'm now having a hard time navigating the massive amount of info on The Street, Seeking Alpha, WSJ, so if anyone wants to recommend a good source, feel free to do that, too. Often, I'll come across info that contradicts other info so I wind up buying nothing.

Yeah... Bitcoins!!!!!!

Check out the couple of RVF threads on the topic... ... even though Bitcoins have been crashing today, I see them as a good and hot investment for 2014.

Post: #223

(12-06-2013 05:08 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I wanted to revive this thread to ask if anyone had any ideas what sectors should be good buys in early 2014.

Im not into sectors, only individual companies.

I've been buying Big Blue (IBM) lately. Its business is incredibly sticky - corporations are not going to change to another vendor unless there has been a huge problem.
Since 2002 their earnings per share and dividends have increased every single year.
They are spending $20 billion buying back their own shares.

To me IBM is a great low risk investment at the current price of $177 providing you hold for the next 3 years.

Post: #224

(12-06-2013 05:08 PM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I wanted to revive this thread to ask if anyone had any ideas what sectors should be good buys in early 2014.

Back in 2012, I did well in REITs and energy. But I stumbled onto these stocks.

I'm now having a hard time navigating the massive amount of info on The Street, Seeking Alpha, WSJ, so if anyone wants to recommend a good source, feel free to do that, too. Often, I'll come across info that contradicts other info so I wind up buying nothing.

I'm in the same position as you. I've been listening to Jim Rogers youtube clips and reading ZeroHedge.

ZeroHedge is more about the global macro perspective. They're big on trading currency pairs. ZeroHedge and Rogers are both bears and insistent that now that QE is tapering the stock market is going to collapse. They make a good case that the market as-is is quite over-valued and with all the artificial liquidity that's currently boosting it up, once that liquidity disappears the market is going to have a large correction.

When that happens, gold & precious metals will rise as a store of wealth, despite gold having been on a year long downward trend.

That being said they are bullish on the dollar compared to the CAN, Yen, and Euro due to our economy recovering faster than Japan and Euro which are a mess. There are ETFs to bet on currencies like this. Additionally, with a QE tapering, the dollar should theoretically appreciate due to less supply of dollars on the market.

That's my takeaway from this from getting into it for only about a week or so.

I do like the bearish sentiment but am not entirely sure where to put the money

I agree that following the street you have all this conflicting info, and downright TOO MUCH info, so the global macro perspective kind of makes more sense to me in order to make order out of the chaos of the markets. I think it's a really good idea to follow ZeroHedge to get that birdseye view of the markets and then to pinpoint trades based on that intelligence.

Post: #225

Growth is going to be quite sluggish the coming years. Everyone in advanced economies has to fix their balance sheets. This is going to take decades, especially with the current caliber of leadership. Broad money will stay tight.

I'd be bullish on international businesses that are competitive in all markets, and businesses that sell inferior goods, like H&M or Inditex or Walmart, as well as emerging market funds. I think the stock market is going to stay pretty stable without much growth, and without much fall, either.