Post: #151

(06-25-2013 11:07 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-23-2013 06:41 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-22-2013 10:27 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:17 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:02 PM)Leo Wrote:  You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

I think you can learn to navigate the markets with a technical plan. Most people don't take the time to do this.

If you equip yourself with a few technical strategies and common sense rules, you can potentially save yourself pain during pullbacks and take advantage of tremendous macro buying opportunities.

A bit of healthy skepticism is ok but at the end of the day price should dictate how you trade and not your opinion on any aspect of the market.

What technical strategies do you recommend? And any resources: books, websites? I don't mind looking into them and see if they hold water - if they give 'an edge'.

Until then, that edge would be what I mentioned above: trading via dark pool networks, market manipulation, or a Level III or IV screen.

Some Recommended reading here on technical analysis and chart patterns...
http://www.chartpattern.com/recommended_reading.htm

Check out this book regarding dark pools and market structure which will probably interest you more.

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine...0307887170

Traders with small accounts shouldn’t be concerned with Dark pools—unlisted pools of bids and offers that trade off the exchanges—but if you have a strategy with enough complexity or you’re trading a large account in illiquid stocks then its worth looking into.

A lot of chart pattern stuff is hindsight, and we all know what hindsight is.

I'd like to play the market as the pattern is forming and know the psychology of the players involved eg: downward pressure on the price as it approaches a resistance.

Also, regarding supports and resistances - I've seen the price go thru a resistance then plummet down hard or thru a support then bounce and keep going. One would get screwed for coming in when it broke resistance or get taken out of the market if one had a stop loss below the support.

why do you say its hindsight? patterns are a predictor of future movement and trends..also supply and demand imbalances.

and yes sure with machine trading today you have markets which often overshoot ....or are prone to breakout/breakdown failures. This often occurs in markets that are in a correction or if in a trending market would occur after an exhaustion or retail gap to suck in late longs or shorts.

You can use this to your advantage if you know how to spot it.

Post: #152

I revived this old thread because I bought a crappy stock called Vivus (VVUS). It's an anti-obesity drug. I thought such a drug would be the new Viagra, but I should have known in the age of Lindy West and the "fatkini" it wouldn't pop.

Anyway, I need to get out. I'm losing money fast. Can anyone direct me to a place that teaches clearly how to short sell. Everything I've read so far confuses me and I've heard that if you short sell wrong you could lose massive amounts of money. The company making the product is in trouble, the stock is likely to fall further, so if anyone has any ideas, lemme know...

Post: #153

Yes, selling short theoretically you can have loses of infinity and can only gain the present price of the stock (if it goes to zero).

Selling short goes like this: You "borrow" the shares you want from a broker or other investor and instantly sell them at the current price; now you have an IOU for the shares you borrowed and sold; if its a "naked" short, there is no particular timeframe to repay the shares.

So you say your stock is selling for $100 a pop and you think its gonna plunge. You borrow 100 shares from a broker and instantly sell them, you now have $10,000. Problem is youre legally obligated to replace the shares (and in fact your broker will have margin requirements so you are forced to pay back). Two months later if the stock is at $50, and you can buy the 100 shares at this price ($5,000) to pay back the broker.

In this situation you would have made $5,000 on the short sell. Imagine shit gets outta control though and the company is at $300 per share. You owe $30,000 (20k loss)! I believe the broker has the right to liquidate any stock you have to pay the amt if you owe more than you can pay.

Id highly suggest some basic reading before selling short. At the very least know how to put in a buy to cover stop loss.

Post: #154

(06-29-2013 08:21 AM)_DC_ Wrote:  Yes, selling short theoretically you can have loses of infinity and can only gain the present price of the stock (if it goes to zero).

Selling short goes like this: You "borrow" the shares you want from a broker or other investor and instantly sell them at the current price; now you have an IOU for the shares you borrowed and sold; if its a "naked" short, there is no particular timeframe to repay the shares.

So you say your stock is selling for $100 a pop and you think its gonna plunge. You borrow 100 shares from a broker and instantly sell them, you now have $10,000. Problem is youre legally obligated to replace the shares (and in fact your broker will have margin requirements so you are forced to pay back). Two months later if the stock is at $50, and you can buy the 100 shares at this price ($5,000) to pay back the broker.

In this situation you would have made $5,000 on the short sell. Imagine shit gets outta control though and the company is at $300 per share. You owe $30,000 (20k loss)! I believe the broker has the right to liquidate any stock you have to pay the amt if you owe more than you can pay.

Id highly suggest some basic reading before selling short. At the very least know how to put in a buy to cover stop loss.

Thanks for the info. This seems more than I want to risk. I think my best option might be to buy more at a low price during a bad market period and hope the stock picks up when the market rises. That way I can cut my losses at least.

Post: #155

Im pretty new myself and the first lesson I have learned is not to go against the grain (DJIA and S&P). The market is chugging along right now so Id recommeded buying long unless a POS stock really really stands out as overvalued.

Post: #156

(06-29-2013 07:03 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I revived this old thread because I bought a crappy stock called Vivus (VVUS). It's an anti-obesity drug. I thought such a drug would be the new Viagra, but I should have known in the age of Lindy West and the "fatkini" it wouldn't pop.

Anyway, I need to get out. I'm losing money fast. Can anyone direct me to a place that teaches clearly how to short sell. Everything I've read so far confuses me and I've heard that if you short sell wrong you could lose massive amounts of money. The company making the product is in trouble, the stock is likely to fall further, so if anyone has any ideas, lemme know...

Dont try and short it...you'll get yourself into more trouble.

Either sell it first thing Monday if you are convinced it is going much further down or write covered calls against your position to recoup some losses if you want to hold the position.

This is a good example of why you need a trading plan before you enter any new position.

Post: #157

Quote:Thanks for the info. This seems more than I want to risk. I think my best option might be to buy more at a low price during a bad market period and hope the stock picks up when the market rises. That way I can cut my losses at least.

Be careful doing this also...you may dig yourself into a bigger hole if you average into it more.

Do you know how to write covered calls against your position?

Happy to help as I think this is your best option if you would prefer to hang onto the position as opposed to just taking the loss.

Post: #158

(06-29-2013 12:20 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

Quote:Thanks for the info. This seems more than I want to risk. I think my best option might be to buy more at a low price during a bad market period and hope the stock picks up when the market rises. That way I can cut my losses at least.

Be careful doing this also...you may dig yourself into a bigger hole if you average into it more.

Do you know how to write covered calls against your position?

Happy to help as I think this is your best option if you would prefer to hang onto the position as opposed to just taking the loss.

I plan on studying covered calls and then calling my trading company. Thanks for the tip. The stock is sort of volatile, but I don't think it's going to ever jump to where I need it to be.

Post: #159

Anybody else feel like the major market indices are taking a temporary dip this week with Fed report on Wednesday? I just moved my IRA stocks which track the indices to the bonds in case we see a big dip. Im thinking a decent selloff if Fed hints at September being the beginning of throttling back the bond buying.

Im still a greenhorn, but I feel like it may be time for a correction. Thoughts?

Post: #160

well...last month when Bernanke hinted that the econ was doing well there was a sell-off of sorts... but then the major indices recovered,with the Dow posting an all-time high.

Post: #161

Reading materials. I will recommend these(below). Curled from my own personal experience(these are books that i have actually read and applied to my own personal trading) :

Level 1:

Market Wizards Books by Jack d schwager.(3 series of books)

Reminiscence of a stock operator by edwin lefevre.

(i will recommend you start here first...it will give you a taste of what is to come. of what lies ahead of you. the failures and triumphs.)

Level 2:

How to make money in the stocks market by william o'neal(also subscribe to IBD)

One up on wallstreet by peter lynch

methods of a wallsteet master by victor sperandeo

Trading in the zone by mark douglas

Level 3:

Fire your stock analyst by harry domash

you can be a stock market genius by joel greenblatt (silly title, brilliant book)

Options made easy by Guy Cohen

The Bible of Options strategies by Guy Cohen

Level 3b:

for technical analysis: Getting started in technical analysis by jack schwager; Encyclopedia of chart patterns by Thomas Bulkowski; candlesticks by steven nison.

Level 4:

Handbook of Fixed Income securities by Frank J. Fabozzi

Options, Futures, and Other derivatives by John C Hull.

.
_____________________________

i posted a link here: /thread-25999-...#pid494570
.

Post: #162

(07-29-2013 08:58 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  well...last month when Bernanke hinted that the econ was doing well there was a sell-off of sorts... but then the major indices recovered,with the Dow posting an all-time high.

It makes sense to me. The rally has been sustained by the $80 billion of MBS being pumped into the system on a monthly basis....Bernanke speech about unwinding that much stimulus caused a selloff...at the same time....Bernanke mentioning that the usa economic is doing well enough to warrant unwinding the stimulus also means that the finance is of the usa is getting better: bullish....hence the initial shock of selling off...followed by digestion of the news...and the renewed bullishness....

also,bernanke later tempered his words in later news announcement as to the benchmark(unemployment below 7%) for the unwinding of the MBS....

For those interested...TD AMERITRADE BANK has a solid analysis of the federal reserve exit strategies.

(07-29-2013 08:52 PM)_DC_ Wrote:  Anybody else feel like the major market indices are taking a temporary dip this week with Fed report on Wednesday? I just moved my IRA stocks which track the indices to the bonds in case we see a big dip. Im thinking a decent selloff if Fed hints at September being the beginning of throttling back the bond buying.

Im still a greenhorn, but I feel like it may be time for a correction. Thoughts?

For those interested.
Speaking of bonds...take a look at TIPS vs GOLD....since gold is an hedge against inflation...TIPS(inflation adjusted treasury bonds) also an hedge against inflation. See the way they've been moving in tandem?

The unwinding of the $80billion MBS reduces inflation/causes deflationary pressures...causing a selloff in...the bonds rate will dip...however, the fact that the economy is doing well is the reason why the MBS is getting unwind = means the economy is growing = increase inflation expectation due to consumer demand. hehehehehe.

anyways, take a look at the chart of TIPS vs GOLD and see the dance.


.

Post: #163

(07-29-2013 08:52 PM)_DC_ Wrote:  Anybody else feel like the major market indices are taking a temporary dip this week with Fed report on Wednesday? I just moved my IRA stocks which track the indices to the bonds in case we see a big dip. Im thinking a decent selloff if Fed hints at September being the beginning of throttling back the bond buying.

Im still a greenhorn, but I feel like it may be time for a correction. Thoughts?

still lots of healthy rotation going on in the leading momo stocks...but I've got sell signals flashing on the indices imparticular IWM so it would make sense we dip after FOMC meeting and into August/September. I'm only anticipating a 3-4% decline before we move higher into the end of year.

Post: #164

Historically that stock market returns around 10% per year. How do you think that trend will continue in the next 10 years or so?

Post: #165

(07-29-2013 11:18 PM)AntiTrace Wrote:  Historically that stock market returns around 10% per year. How do you think that trend will continue in the next 10 years or so?

The market has broken above a 13+ year base which points to much higher prices over the next 5 - 10 years.

Post: #166

@GSINPLAYA
@ANTITRACE

With all due respect, boss. I like technical analysis as much as the next person. Heck, i invented my own recipe.(yes, i actually did!) However, the fundamental forces at play here are far more important if you ask me. what fundie factor, you say?

#1. EUROPE. That bitch is still a drag. we have the greece situation...spanish situation...Italy and her barely working electoral candidates...then turkey....the PIIGS country are a drag. Germany cannot continue to bail them out indefinitely.

#2. CHINA. It has been a major powerhouse. Fueling not just the aussie and the rest of the comm dolls but the rest of the world. and yes, the relentless modernization has been good for the world. But, how will the CHINESE manage their landing? hard landing or soft landing? I am familiar with Jim rogers (commodities supercycles). The man is hard to ignore. But, can we really trust anything out of china? Due to lack of transparency and putting the remninbi in a tight trading band.

#3. GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY/MIDDLE-EAST AWAKENING. The effect of all these unrest and protest and government overthrow on the world's main commodities: OIL. the volatility and potential diversification away from petrodollar.. terrorism and global superpower competing for scarce resources. china is buying up Africa like crazy.

#4. LOSING RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS: America is getting closer and closer to losing their status as the world's reserve currency status. How will this eventually affect the u.s stock market? these are real, actual problem. We are not even talking about the extremely delicate art--and dangerous balancing step--of unwinding the $80 billion per month in mortgage backed securities that has been pumping into the system all along. These shite are real, my friends.

#5.TOXIC DERIVATIVES: Yes, they havent gone a way. They are more and more of them than the entire GDP of the whole planet. You are reading that correctly. WTF?

So, yeah, i like technical analysis as much as the next person, especially the trend...trade the trend...but...there are cross-currents of worldwide geoeconomic proportions blowing every which way in this world we currently live in. This is not going to be easy, my good lads.

.

(07-30-2013 07:14 AM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(07-29-2013 11:18 PM)AntiTrace Wrote:  Historically that stock market returns around 10% per year. How do you think that trend will continue in the next 10 years or so?

The market has broken above a 13+ year base which points to much higher prices over the next 5 - 10 years.

Post: #167

as of today, Dow and S&P are at all time highs, but there could be a correction if the employment stats tomorrow are a bummer. oils is at about $107/brl.

Post: #168

(08-01-2013 07:04 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  as of today, Dow and S&P are at all time highs, but there could be a correction if the employment stats tomorrow are a bummer. oils is at about $107/brl.

The ADP non farm employment numbers are good.(sometimes an indicator of how the unemployment number will look like)

the Unemployment claims are good.(down)

the historical TREND of the unemployment number has been good...as such, i doubt tomorrow's unemployment number will be negative.

Even if it is negative. i think the market may shrug it off. simply because of the trend...never fight the trend.

(some books on the matter: the secrets of economic indicators by bernard baumohl or the Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators. by Richard Yamarone. i have both books. i like baumohl book more.)

there is a scenario where i can imagine the market being negative on friday: profit taking. The Trend all week has been straight up. bullish. The market participants may decide to take some profit going into the weekend.

Post: #169

(08-02-2013 12:25 AM)Nemencine Wrote:  

(08-01-2013 07:04 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  as of today, Dow and S&P are at all time highs, but there could be a correction if the employment stats tomorrow are a bummer. oils is at about $107/brl.

The ADP non farm employment numbers are good.(sometimes an indicator of how the unemployment number will look like)

the Unemployment claims are good.(down)

the historical TREND of the unemployment number has been good...as such, i doubt tomorrow's unemployment number will be negative.

Even if it is negative. i think the market may shrug it off. simply because of the trend...never fight the trend.

(some books on the matter: the secrets of economic indicators by bernard baumohl or the Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators. by Richard Yamarone. i have both books. i like baumohl book more.)

there is a scenario where i can imagine the market being negative on friday: profit taking. The Trend all week has been straight up. bullish. The market participants may decide to take some profit going into the weekend.

what do you trade out of interest? and on what timeframe?

Post: #170

(08-02-2013 12:25 AM)Nemencine Wrote:  ......the historical TREND of the unemployment number has been good...as such, i doubt tomorrow's unemployment number will be negative.

Even if it is negative. i think the market may shrug it off. simply because of the trend...never fight the trend........

UNemployment rate came in at 7.4% lower than the previous 7.6%. The number was positive.

And yes, the market was positive. S and P and DOW went on a bull run.

ALL respect the trend. Never fight the trend. THIS acute video by dennis gartman captures it:

http://jny.kewego.com/video/iLyROoafJo27.html

entertaining video too.

(08-02-2013 08:45 AM)gsinplaya Wrote:  what do you trade out of interest? and on what timeframe?

As we've been discussing in PM....i trade stocks, forex, and some futures.

i try to blend fundamentals with technical analysis.

when i have time, i will try and post some swing trades. i will do a breakdown of why i pick these trades.

scalping is challenging. i couldnt do it successful. the stress mounts too much.

i realized that swing trading is more my style.

Post: #171

EVENT DRIVEN TRADE: #1. short NZD currencies when the forex market opens,
#2. short stocks of milk-related products companies with exposure to nEW ZEALAND's milk industry...
#3. prepare to go long milk-product companies without exposure to new zealand after the dust settles...
#4. go long alternatve to milk-products without exposure to new zealand.

WHY?

I just read this right now in the NYT: CHINA BANS milk powder from NEW ZEALAND over Botulism fears.

Holy shite!

The main export from New Zealand is MILK/dairy product...their main trading partner: CHINA.

holy shite double time!

basically, NEW ZEALAND currency, the NZD, aka the KIWI is fucked for the time being. Short that baby. Also, CHINA took the additional steps of banning milk products from australia too....

To those who likes to trade global macro...that means the stocks of companies with exposure to dairy products from new zealand will experience a hit....there could also be a sympathetic play against other diary products giants that are not exposed to the new zealand market...however, since they are dairy giants, they will also take a hit.(making them a good buy at a later date.)

Naturally, as things even out...dairy giants without exposure to new zealand product will gobble up market share...displacing their weakened competitors....

also, alternative to milk, (supply elasticity) will experience increase in market share....

I have begun some quick preliminary research on the subject:
http://kevinbellamy.wordpress.com/2011/0...ry-top-10/
(kraft, unilever, nestle, dean, etc....)

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/compani...-products/

http://www.idfa.org/resource-center/memb...companies/

Need to go and do more research and see if i can MILK this....my job here is done....you lads take it from here....
.

Post: #172

Commissions must be killing you? Mind asking how much equity you have on the market right now?

Post: #173

Just about all the jobs that were "created", came from low-paying part-time positions - hardly anything to clap about. Furthermore, our economy is being artificially boosted by quantitative easing programs:Fed Chairman Ben Shalom Bernanke has been injecting our economy with roughly $1 trillion dollars of monopoly money every year. That amounts to a staggering 1/45 of our GDP. When the dog and pony show ends, we will be seeing massive stagflation creeping in.

Post: #174

@ alphaspiraton

Not if you make enough money. I will admit that commissons and slippage will affect scalpers. then again, if you are making enough and it suits you, that is the least of your worries.

How much equity i have now? the amount i am willing to lose.


@numanist

With all due respect, i dont care whether jobs were "created" or not. I also dont care whether they are low-paying, part-time jobs. All that i care about is how the market react to the unemployment data. The rest is superfluous to me. That is why i am faintly amused by this thread on QE3 inflation or something. The only reality to me--the only question i ask myself: what are the actionable way for me to profit from these?

last nov/dec...i got into these stocks long: APOG, LL, AOS, MHK, HD. (i missed ED short because it didnt retest my short levels.)

my thesis? QE3 infinity + hurricane sandy + good company fundamentals + solid technical setup + outperforming sector/industry.

All of them did well...+30% gain to +80% gain....closed them all down last month when bernanke started talking about "tapering". I have had my run. That was how i played the QE3 infinity.

ED short was based on the explosion of their plants(consolidated edison) during hurricane sandy. That may sound machiavellian, but as i read about the hurricane sandy, i started looking for insurance companies to short...i started looking for power companies to short....lumber/housing development companies to go long...and i started looking for the company that made the red Blitz petrol cans. I was reading reports of long lines with "Blitz" petrol cans in shortage.

This is how my brain works with regards to finance. I dont care too much about the "truth" of one school vs another.

With all due respect, i dont belong to the Frankfurst school or to the Keynesian economists school. I belong to the one that makes me money....while it is making me money. I dumped her faster than a used-up slut the minute it stops making me money.

So, if and when stagnation did come(if it did), i will simply look into Japanese financial history, and ask myself, how do i transfer this to american economy and reap the financial rewards?

I have no control over economic policy...the only thing i can do is how i react to it....and the market may remain irrational longer than i can remain solvent. i simply play the hands that i am dealt.

The Housing bubble 2003 to 2007 wasnt real either...however, there were people who printed millions and ran away with it before it exploded. Same with the tech bubble...I sincerely dont care if it is a dog and pony show. i just dont. if gold is in play, i will be with gold...if it is auto and healthcare sector/industry, i will sleep with them.

Take a look at what i posted here yesterday about new zealand. China banned dairy imports from NZ.

Questions that ran through my mind:
#1. how does this affect the kiwi or ( NZDs) aka the new Zealand currency going forward?
#2. How does it affect, in the futures market, the price of milk/dairy?
#3. How does it affect the stocks of companies with heavy exposure to new zealand #1 export: dairy products.?
#4. How do i edge my bets?

these are the kind of things i personally care about.

regards,

Post: #175

Bernanke hints at weaning the econ off of QE... Gold takes kick in the "Nuggets"

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mark...ttarget=no