Post: #1

This is specific to the market for the year 2013.

Gas will be hitting $5 a gallon in the US. I know we keep saying market due for a correction for the past 2 years now but I need some reasons why market will continue to go up, as well as need reasons why market should sell off.

Gold has sold off past few days which is a sign of concern. Euro zone has been quite past year but who's to say all is well

Post: #2

It seems impossible to know either way.

Think about it logically. For every share on the stock exchange. Those selling a stock think that stock will go down. And those buying a stock think the stock will go up.

And when a stock stabilises and stops moving up or down. That means the number of people who think it will go up is exactly the same as the number of people who think it will go down. So - it has an exactly even chance of going either way the next day.

The only really way to make money is not to diversify. Wait around and put all your money in gold. Or oil. Or property. Or 2 or 3 companies you really really like. There is no rush - so just wait for the next big wave. Really - any intelligent person could have gotten in fairly early on the big moves involving GOOGLE, AMAZON, NINTENDO and APPLE over the past decade. You only need to get it right once to make a bunch of dough. The other advice is that unless you think you are making a big mistake. You are not getting in early enough - or betting big enough. It is a bit of a paradox. But you won't make much money if your move feels too comfortable.

Otherwise just stick it in a bank.

So - it is hard to give advice unless it is related to specific companies. It is imposssible to read into general trends since everyday there are good reasons and bad reasons why the stock market fell or rose. And depending on what the market does - the pundits give post-hoc reasons to (apparently) explain why the market did what it did. But those explanations are just hindsight dressed up as expertise.

Also - Warren Buffett thinks trends and worries about the economy is always bullshit. Nobody knows anything. Ever. And there was never a time when the future wasn't uncertain - with big worries lurking over the horizon.

Post: #3

Warren Buffet gets rich deceiving people into buying half ass stocks. He is not telling his direct shareholders the same crap he tells the common investor on CNBC. He is the worlds biggest troll and nobody calls him out for it.

As far as stocks go its a toss up. All I know the 'Goose is cooked' The FEDs unlimited QE has started to show its hands in food and energy. Peanut Butter costs nearly 9 bucks a jar here from it being 3-4 dollars not that many years ago. The Dow marches up while jobs are still in the toilet.

The Army is cutting 300k jobs, Obama will rape Americans in his first budget with no recourse involved. The next manufactured "fiscal emergency" will probably expire with 90 Billion and some change being carved out in one swoop. If Americans start to wake up then that would start the panic in the market as many investors would get scared of a impending free fall (I don't believe that part personally).

Post: #4

I met a guy this week who got out of currency trading and is trading crude.

Post: #5

What are the odds we just get an extension March 1st to further put off figuring out gov spending cuts?

Post: #6

I just started investing small amounts in the past year and so far I'm doing well with the following (not including dividends)
T:GWO (up 22%)
T:MFC (up 25%)
T:L (up 16%)
LUK (up 35%)
HAL(up 35%)
DE (up 15%
FDX (up 15%)

Poorly in the following:
T:ABX (down 10%)
IACI (down 15%)
WU (-6%)
Blackberry (sold my loses, can't remember at what price)
Nintendo (dropped big time then I sold for no gain or loss before Wii U came out)

And I have a few others that I can't remember off the top of my head, but my best pick was in 2008/09 when I picked up KSU in the 20's, then Buffet's Berkshire bought BNF and the rail stocks went up and now KSU is hovering below 100$.
I got a profit of 1500$ from that not including dividends.

I invest small extra money (money given to me as gifts or commission from work) just for fun really testing out different ideas.

Post: #7

I'm a day/swing trader by profession so I try and remove any personal opinion when I am trading each day and only make decisions based on price action.

Having said that I believe the SPX will hit 1700 by 2015.

If you are long term investor corrections in the market will be a good chance to buy but I would not be chasing the market up here now as it is in the 9th innings of this current move.

Here are some Interesting points from Ralph Acampora who is considered the Godfather of Technical Analysis. I agree with his views.

________________________________

I Have Eleven Reasons Why I Am A Secular Bull. Corrections Or Even Bear Markets Are Buying Opportunities For The Long-Term

# 11 - "Don't Fight the Fed" - We All Have A Vested Interest In A Strong Stock Market

# 10 - Like The Late 1970s, The "Street" Is Contracting Because The Equity Market Is Out Of Favor With The Public - Don't Follow The Herd

# 9 - The European Bellwether - The DAX - Is About 2% Away From An All Time New High - That Has To Be A Fantastic Omen For Europe

# 8 - China Has Bottomed - It Will Help Power The Global Recovery; And Japan Is Boosting Its Stimulus

# 7 - Most Markets Around The World Are Doing Well Despite Local Problems. Negative News Has Been Largely Discounted

#6 - Rotation Is The Life-Line Of Every Bull Market - The Long Overlooked Financials Are Leading - This Is Very Bullish

#5 - The 10-Year Yield Broke Above 1.9% Recently - The Bottom In Yields Is In And The Air Is Slowly Coming Out Of The Bond Bubble

#4 - The Market Has Doubled Since Its 3/09 Low And There Is Still Trillions Of Dollars On The Sidelines - This Is More Fuel For The Bull

#3 - With Close To 50 Years Experience I Have Never Seen So Many People, So Negative On The Stock Market, For So Long

#2 - NYSE Breadth Is At All Time New Highs - The Majority Of Stocks Are Doing Very Well

The March 2009 Low Was And Is A Generational Low - Just Like The Oct/Dec 1974 Bottom - We Will Work Our Way Irregularly Higher

Post: #8

If you are looking for advice for the near term....I am currently using 13,860 as my "line in the sand" on the DJIA.

A close below this will likely signal a correction. It is impossible to say how deep a correction but my guess is that it would only be minor.

Post: #9

(02-21-2013 10:54 AM)cardguy Wrote:  It seems impossible to know either way.

Think about it logically. For every share on the stock exchange. Those selling a stock think that stock will go down. And those buying a stock think the stock will go up.

And when a stock stabilises and stops moving up or down. That means the number of people who think it will go up is exactly the same as the number of people who think it will go down. So - it has an exactly even chance of going either way the next day.

Let me explain logically why this is wrong.

Generally, a price adjusts so that supply meets demand. People that must immediately sell get to sell, and likewise for buyers. This is called market clearing.

We see this same price mechanism in a wide variety of markets - not only stocks. And it doesn't logically mean that we don't know which way the price will go in the future.

For example, the price of mushrooms will vary according to the season. In a period of abundance, the price will go down. In scarcity, it will go up. Just because price has reached an equilibrium point today, it doesn't mean we can't predict which way the price will go in 6 months time. We have a high probability read on the way it will go because we know the seasonal calendar that is going to drive the yield.

Benjamin Graham said that in the short run the stock market acts as a voting machine. In the long run, it acts as a weighing machine.

What is weighed for a stock? Cashflow and earnings - past, present and future expected earnings.

The underlying asset of a stock is commerce, and commerce in general tends to make money.

When choosing a stock, we do so with imperfect information. But this shouldn't lead an observer to conclude that we can never make money.

I would advise the OP to look on other forums for investing advice. Also, only listen to people with a demonstrated record of success in the field of advice. Investing advice on RVF tends to be poor and uninformed.

Post: #10

(02-21-2013 11:39 AM)chyamor Wrote:  What are the odds we just get an extension March 1st to further put off figuring out gov spending cuts?

They have to implement the cuts, but either side does not want to get blamed for it. This is the first " cliff crisis " in the last Obama term so he really does not need to play politics with it anymore. My guess... Both sides actually just let it expire and make the blame that "Congress is broken" to shield negative heat for both sides. I always felt that Obama basically used the old "cliffs" to bargain with he GOP to kick the can down the road with cuts to save his face, but reward them by taking on most of the heat if he got a second term. Obama will most likely drop the hammer in the Budget to "correct Washington with a bi - partisan package", and may take an ass kicking for he deep cuts in the public eye - but not sure he really gives a damn. Obama strategically will most likely use here first two years to slash and cut and them try to to use the pennies saved to buy back votes for the Dems in 2015. He used his first two years to basically sell Obamacare and then walked on eggshells to get re- elected - Something tells me this budget/fiscal situation will be similar.

Post: #11

(02-21-2013 12:30 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:39 AM)chyamor Wrote:  What are the odds we just get an extension March 1st to further put off figuring out gov spending cuts?

They have to implement the cuts, but either side does not want to get blamed for it. This is the first " cliff crisis " in the last Obama term so he really does not need to play politics with it anymore. My guess... Both sides actually just let it expire and make the blame that "Congress is broken" to shield negative heat for both sides. I always felt that Obama basically used the old "cliffs" to bargain with he GOP to kick the can down the road with cuts to save his face, but reward them by taking on most of the heat if he got a second term. Obama will most likely drop the hammer in the Budget to "correct Washington with a bi - partisan package", and may take an ass kicking for he deep cuts in the public eye - but not sure he really gives a damn. Obama strategically will most likely use here first two years to slash and cut and them try to to use the pennies saved to buy back votes for the Dems in 2015. He used his first two years to basically sell Obamacare and then walked on eggshells to get re- elected - Something tells me this budget/fiscal situation will be similar.

That makes sense. Both sides actually just let it expire and make the blame that "Congress is broken" to shield negative heat for both sides

I might buy some UVXY and watch the market bleed

Post: #12

(02-21-2013 12:37 PM)chyamor Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 12:30 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:39 AM)chyamor Wrote:  What are the odds we just get an extension March 1st to further put off figuring out gov spending cuts?

They have to implement the cuts, but either side does not want to get blamed for it. This is the first " cliff crisis " in the last Obama term so he really does not need to play politics with it anymore. My guess... Both sides actually just let it expire and make the blame that "Congress is broken" to shield negative heat for both sides. I always felt that Obama basically used the old "cliffs" to bargain with he GOP to kick the can down the road with cuts to save his face, but reward them by taking on most of the heat if he got a second term. Obama will most likely drop the hammer in the Budget to "correct Washington with a bi - partisan package", and may take an ass kicking for he deep cuts in the public eye - but not sure he really gives a damn. Obama strategically will most likely use here first two years to slash and cut and them try to to use the pennies saved to buy back votes for the Dems in 2015. He used his first two years to basically sell Obamacare and then walked on eggshells to get re- elected - Something tells me this budget/fiscal situation will be similar.

That makes sense. Both sides actually just let it expire and make the blame that "Congress is broken" to shield negative heat for both sides

I might buy some UVXY and watch the market bleed

Careful with UVXY...whilst the trade might work for you - UVXY by design is likely to go to lower.

If you believe we go down from here and want to play leveraged etf's ... a decent trade would be buying TZA with a stop at 10 (the pivot low yday)

Post: #13

What do you guys say to the idea that the only winning strategy in the stockmarket, long-term, is an index fund?

Unless you have insider information, how can you possibly hope to do better than the hedge funds who employ hundreds of PhDs to crunch the numbers... there's no way one guy can beat them on prediction, right?

So isn't anything other than a diversified index-fund portfolio just gambling, with backwards-rationalization from the people who got lucky?

Post: #14

(02-21-2013 07:48 PM)RichieP Wrote:  What do you guys say to the idea that the only winning strategy in the stockmarket, long-term, is an index fund?

Unless you have insider information, how can you possibly hope to do better than the hedge funds who employ hundreds of PhDs to crunch the numbers... there's no way one guy can beat them on prediction, right?

So isn't anything other than a diversified index-fund portfolio just gambling, with backwards-rationalization from the people who got lucky?

Well the great thing about the quants is they aren't as smart as they think they are. You can use that to your advantage. Those guys have to park billions of dollars. You can't do that without people noticing. Also their models do not account for human emotion and greed. Which is a bigger part of trading than technicals or fundamentals.

If you bought an index fund on the Nasdaq in 99 you wouldn't even have 60% of your money back. If you bought the S&P in 2007 you haven't even broken even yet. Fuck if you bought an index fund tied to the Nikkei before 1990 you wouldn't even have 25% of your capital back and it has been over 20 years.

Post: #15

Placed this comment on another thread will say it again here.

1. Does the guy have a 1 hand shake connection to buyside? If not don't listen to any stock picks
2. If you ignore rule number one, make the guy show you his percentage gain returns over 5 years adjusting net for contributions. If your request is declined again, run.

Post: #16

I don't really trade macro but I am aware of what is going on. Ultimately, I care about how the crowd perceives and processes new information that comes to light. So, I stick with price action. Right now, everybody is expecting a pullback and we may indeed be at the beginning of one. As others have mentioned, you can't predict the future, you can only manage risk.

There will always be stocks that outperform and do well. My basic strategy is to find the market leaders and trade them with leverage using options. I like to stack the odds in my favor so I'm using a net seller of options. When the market isn't healthy and the leaders are breaking down, I move to cash and sit out until I see further consolidation. Some leading stocks I've been in that have worked well are GOOG, MA, GS, CRM, and EXPE.

I suggest you find a strategy that works for you and implement it. Master it until it gets boring and that is how you will make consistent income.

Post: #17

(02-21-2013 07:48 PM)RichieP Wrote:  What do you guys say to the idea that the only winning strategy in the stockmarket, long-term, is an index fund?

Great advertising for guys that sell index funds.

Couple key things I learned about "The Street"
- those guys have a herd like mentality (If I see another pair of Salvatore Ferragamo Tramezzas...)
- dissent is often quashed, and dissenters marginalized if not fired
- they have too much money, so they can only buy into, and look into big opportunities.
- they all (most) believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Market Portfolio Theory
- they're cannibals, jackals and hyenas

You beat the street by doing the research and sticking to your guns.
The hardest thing about investing isn't the analysis, it's your emotional turmoil.

It's up, should I sell? Should I wait?
It's down, should I sell? Should I buy more?
I don't know what the future holds!

WIA

Post: #18

Picked up some shares of CenturyLink (CTL) at 34$ following last week's collapse after they cut the dividend.

One company I'm looking at is DreamWorks (DWA), I missed the chance of picking it up when its market value went below its book value last month, as media content is important IMO for the future, and DWA following their purchase of Classic Media last year has a good selection of children media content. I'm hoping to pick some up when the share price drops following the release of The Croods in March, that movie has been generating little buzz, another Rise of the Guardians type flop will allow me to jump in on DWA. Purely a fun speculative gamble though, as DWA unfortunately does not have a dividend.

I have a nice amount of $$$ saved up to pick a few more companies once the fear over Sequestration kicks in.

Number 1 on my sights is CHD, which IMO is recession proof, they make condoms! Who wants a baby in a recession
And a few more consumer goods such as SJM and CBP.

Post: #19

Those active in the stock market, what tools do you use for research and stock screening?

Post: #20

To add to that question, anyone know of a good website that does filtering? I'm looking to filter based on Simple Moving Avg / Exponential Moving Avg and RSI many of the free ones dont let you filter Exp or RSI

I use think as my platform if that matters.

Post: #21

(02-24-2013 12:39 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  Picked up some shares of CenturyLink (CTL) at 34$ following last week's collapse after they cut the dividend.

One company I'm looking at is DreamWorks (DWA), I missed the chance of picking it up when its market value went below its book value last month, as media content is important IMO for the future, and DWA following their purchase of Classic Media last year has a good selection of children media content. I'm hoping to pick some up when the share price drops following the release of The Croods in March, that movie has been generating little buzz, another Rise of the Guardians type flop will allow me to jump in on DWA. Purely a fun speculative gamble though, as DWA unfortunately does not have a dividend.

I have a nice amount of $$$ saved up to pick a few more companies once the fear over Sequestration kicks in.

Number 1 on my sights is CHD, which IMO is recession proof, they make condoms! Who wants a baby in a recession
And a few more consumer goods such as SJM and CBP.

CTL looks good for a move back to 39 in the near term ..i like it.

Could be a sloppy few weeks in the market coming up.

I think both bulls and bears want to see a larger pullback(correction) in the market. Unfortunately, we usually do not get what everyone wants so I'm keeping an open mind.

Post: #22

(02-24-2013 10:12 AM)chyamor Wrote:  To add to that question, anyone know of a good website that does filtering? I'm looking to filter based on Simple Moving Avg / Exponential Moving Avg and RSI many of the free ones dont let you filter Exp or RSI

I use think as my platform if that matters.

Quants develop algorithms that will exploit those and use them against you. Also indicators are used more to confirm price action. They do not predict moves. MACD, stochastics, RSI are based on PAST movements not future.

If you want to learn how to get in ahead of big moves you have to learn how to analyze the option market. A lot of the time options predict big moves or trends in the market or the individual stocks.

For example this past week it looks like Talisman Energy which has been a huge dog the past couple of years is posed for a takeover. Now those rumors have been around for awhile but nothing has happened. Well now you are starting to see action in the October calls that suggest otherwise. The flow to me is very similar to what happened with Nexxen before it was bought out by China.

Using the option market you can see a large trader bought 4000 shares of the october 13 calls and sold 4000 october 11 puts. Basically he financed his Call buying by selling puts. That is over $500,000 on call buying premium. But the real tell is selling the october 11 puts. You have to have big money in order to be allowed to sell that many puts. You run the risk of being put 400,000 shares if the stock sinks below the $11 mark. Which it has a few times in the last year. Someone might have to cough up $4,000,000 or so in october if this trade goes bad.

But anytime you see more volume than the previous days open interest total you better take notice because institutional traders are positioning themselves. We all know who has insider knowledge and it isn't you or I.

Anyways pay attention over the coming weeks and see if there is a big announcement. I have no position in the trade but this would be a classic tell that the option market is signaling a buyout weeks or months in advance.

Post: #23

(02-24-2013 04:25 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(02-24-2013 10:12 AM)chyamor Wrote:  To add to that question, anyone know of a good website that does filtering? I'm looking to filter based on Simple Moving Avg / Exponential Moving Avg and RSI many of the free ones dont let you filter Exp or RSI

I use think as my platform if that matters.

Quants develop algorithms that will exploit those and use them against you. Also indicators are used more to confirm price action. They do not predict moves. MACD, stochastics, RSI are based on PAST movements not future.

If you want to learn how to get in ahead of big moves you have to learn how to analyze the option market. A lot of the time options predict big moves or trends in the market or the individual stocks.

For example this past week it looks like Talisman Energy which has been a huge dog the past couple of years is posed for a takeover. Now those rumors have been around for awhile but nothing has happened. Well now you are starting to see action in the October calls that suggest otherwise. The flow to me is very similar to what happened with Nexxen before it was bought out by China.

Using the option market you can see a large trader bought 4000 shares of the october 13 calls and sold 4000 october 11 puts. Basically he financed his Call buying by selling puts. That is over $500,000 on call buying premium. But the real tell is selling the october 11 puts. You have to have big money in order to be allowed to sell that many puts. You run the risk of being put 400,000 shares if the stock sinks below the $11 mark. Which it has a few times in the last year. Someone might have to cough up $4,000,000 or so in october if this trade goes bad.

But anytime you see more volume than the previous days open interest total you better take notice because institutional traders are positioning themselves. We all know who has insider knowledge and it isn't you or I.

Anyways pay attention over the coming weeks and see if there is a big announcement. I have no position in the trade but this would be a classic tell that the option market is signaling a buyout weeks or months in advance.

some really good points here. 2 other recent examples were HNZ & HPQ. Huge option volume came in before these 2 had big moves. It's obvious it was traders front running the public on inside information.

Use this to your advantage.

It's a much more powerful tool then using "old school" indicators that the sheep use which only work a mediocre % of the time.

Post: #24

Unusual options activity can be viewed through different services. Livevol has an excellent screener feature for options and a blog that teaches things like screening for unusual options activity.

Finviz has a free screener for stocks that allows you to incorporate different fundamental and technical variables. Hope that helps!

Post: #25

(02-21-2013 11:25 AM)kosko Wrote:  Warren Buffet gets rich deceiving people into buying half ass stocks. He is not telling his direct shareholders the same crap he tells the common investor on CNBC. He is the worlds biggest troll and nobody calls him out for it.

This is completely false. You should read a bio or something.

Or maybe you are thinking about Jim Cramer and just don't know?

He ran a profitable investment firm and made his clients a lot of money. Then he formed a holding company, known as Berkshire Hathaway. I suggest you look at the returns of that company compared to the indices.