Post: #876

(04-27-2018 05:58 PM)ivansirko Wrote:  As much as you guys think this is good news...I believe the end goal is for the Chinese to negotiate the US off of the Korean peninsula at any cost. I hope Trump understands this.

...and?

South Korea has the ability to defend itself and benefits from a half-century of trickle-down US training and equipment. Ditto with the Japanese.

Economic cooperation with the future powerhouses of the world - China (East Asia as a whole) and Russia should be the long game, not bolstering up last century's Western European entanglements.

Post: #877

(04-27-2018 06:52 PM)dicknixon72 Wrote:  ...and?

South Korea has the ability to defend itself and benefits from a half-century of trickle-down US training and equipment. Ditto with the Japanese.

The test of this is if/when the US leaves Korea and Japan. China has nukes. Where are the Japanese and ROK nukes?

China is easing its way into the coastlines of most of South East Asia. If we negotiate from a position of weakness China will exploit it and may choose to turn all of this into a hot war.

Post: #878

(04-27-2018 06:52 PM)dicknixon72 Wrote:  

(04-27-2018 05:58 PM)ivansirko Wrote:  As much as you guys think this is good news...I believe the end goal is for the Chinese to negotiate the US off of the Korean peninsula at any cost. I hope Trump understands this.

...and?

South Korea has the ability to defend itself and benefits from a half-century of trickle-down US training and equipment. Ditto with the Japanese.

Economic cooperation with the future powerhouses of the world - China (East Asia as a whole) and Russia should be the long game, not bolstering up last century's Western European entanglements.

South Korea absolutely can not defend itself from China alone. That's a silly proposition.

The worries with NK/SK negotiations were that SK + US could barely hope to protect a large segment of SK's population from NK artillery.

To be clear, SK/NK peace is a great thing, but ivansirko is 100% right: the US has to be careful about the balance of power in Asia if it's going to pull out of SK completely.

Just because the US under Trump is practicing a less interventionist foreign policy doesn't mean you simply build China into a behemoth and then leave your allies alone with them in a room.

Post: #879

Any successful long term foreign policy in Asia must follow this maxim:

Never trust China, at least not for too long.

Post: #880

Hilarious watching you guys twist and twirl to try to spin this development into anything but a great thing.

Post: #881

(04-27-2018 09:02 PM)Gmac Wrote:  Hilarious watching you guys twist and twirl to try to spin this development into anything but a great thing.

Hilarious to see you constantly come unhinged over the slightest things.

(04-27-2018 07:36 PM)Enigma Wrote:  To be clear, SK/NK peace is a great thing

Post: #882

(04-27-2018 09:02 PM)Gmac Wrote:  Hilarious watching you guys twist and twirl to try to spin this development into anything but a great thing.

I agree. This is great news. It is one of the greatest achievements, at least on paper, in recent history. MAGA 2020!

Post: #883

I dont see this as a bad thing at all, however beware of Communists bearing gifts.

To my understanding there was a secret not-so-secret meeting in China between Kim and the Chinese Premier a month ago. Communists do not do anything without a plan.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/27/asia/nort...index.html

I do think it speaks volumes of how this is happening during a Trump Administration. He needs to use those negotiating skills he talks about. No other president could ever do this (maybe besides Nixon).

Post: #884

It wouldn't surprise me if Trump has looked at the financial books and figured 'we get diddly squat from this region for a lot of military investment, so it's time to put the onus to defend the peace back on its occupants.'

It would explain why he's dropping missiles into the ME and peace talks into Korea.

Post: #885

(04-27-2018 09:02 PM)Gmac Wrote:  Hilarious watching you guys twist and twirl to try to spin this development into anything but a great thing.

Some guys love talking themselves out of good pussy.

Post: #886

Hopefully by the end of the decade we can see both Koreas flying under one flag for the first time since the end of WWII.

Post: #887

(04-27-2018 05:58 PM)ivansirko Wrote:  As much as you guys think this is good news...I believe the end goal is for the Chinese to negotiate the US off of the Korean peninsula at any cost. I hope Trump understands this.

This. Kim Jong Un visited China recently and now he has turned around.

But it doesn't matter if Trump gets it, since it should be clear for everyone by now that he's just a puppet for the jews and they get it. They won't get their hands off North Korea that easily, and the US has little to gain by a united and demilitarised Korea. China has.

Post: #888

What are the odds the North Korean regime inexplicably gasses a few hundred citizens just before a peace treaty can be signed?

Post: #889

Nothing is going to change security wise. Our troops are positioned in strategic locations all over the world for a reason.

No one is so short sighted as to leave China to it’s own devices.

I think the trade war is about to ramp up big time.

Post: #890

End of summit with Kim and wife watching light show and then saying goodbye and driving back north
Full video without commentary from russian channel RT
28 minutes long

Post: #891

Post: #892

(04-28-2018 02:17 PM)Fisto Wrote:  Nothing is going to change security wise. Our troops are positioned in strategic locations all over the world for a reason.

No one is so short sighted as to leave China to it’s own devices.

I think the trade war is about to ramp up big time.

This was all about money fellas.

China would love to have it's manufacturing proxy base back, making things it's own growing middle class is too rich to make in a nasty factory.

South Korea could use North Korean manufacturing and strategic minerals too.

Oh yeah, what's that? Japan has a massive Rare Earth minerals cache on an island now? You think Japan would give Samsung a good deal on some? LOOOL! Sure, so the South Koreans and Taiwanese can destroy whatever is left of their fledgling TV industry? Well Japan is the US ally, so likely we could get a decent deal for some right? Heh, Japanese are stingy as fuck, we shall see.

Either way, North Koreans were feeling the pinch of those sanctions. Fucking with the West was cute until even the rich NK citizens were becoming poor overnight. Obama and others never called that bluff properly. He knew he could not keep control of that country with no paper. He turned into a bitch really quick.

No place on Earth differs from another. You can fuck with whoever you want, just don't fuck with the money.

Post: #893

(04-30-2018 01:25 AM)TravelerKai Wrote:  

(04-28-2018 02:17 PM)Fisto Wrote:  Nothing is going to change security wise. Our troops are positioned in strategic locations all over the world for a reason.

No one is so short sighted as to leave China to it’s own devices.

I think the trade war is about to ramp up big time.

This was all about money fellas.

China would love to have it's manufacturing proxy base back, making things it's own growing middle class is too rich to make in a nasty factory.

South Korea could use North Korean manufacturing and strategic minerals too.

Oh yeah, what's that? Japan has a massive Rare Earth minerals cache on an island now? You think Japan would give Samsung a good deal on some? LOOOL! Sure, so the South Koreans and Taiwanese can destroy whatever is left of their fledgling TV industry? Well Japan is the US ally, so likely we could get a decent deal for some right? Heh, Japanese are stingy as fuck, we shall see.

Either way, North Koreans were feeling the pinch of those sanctions. Fucking with the West was cute until even the rich NK citizens were becoming poor overnight. Obama and others never called that bluff properly. He knew he could not keep control of that country with no paper. He turned into a bitch really quick.

No place on Earth differs from another. You can fuck with whoever you want, just don't fuck with the money.

Good post and I agree. But isn't all of that a good thing?

Post: #894

(04-30-2018 01:58 AM)RIslander Wrote:  

(04-30-2018 01:25 AM)TravelerKai Wrote:  

(04-28-2018 02:17 PM)Fisto Wrote:  Nothing is going to change security wise. Our troops are positioned in strategic locations all over the world for a reason.

No one is so short sighted as to leave China to it’s own devices.

I think the trade war is about to ramp up big time.

This was all about money fellas.

China would love to have it's manufacturing proxy base back, making things it's own growing middle class is too rich to make in a nasty factory.

South Korea could use North Korean manufacturing and strategic minerals too.

Oh yeah, what's that? Japan has a massive Rare Earth minerals cache on an island now? You think Japan would give Samsung a good deal on some? LOOOL! Sure, so the South Koreans and Taiwanese can destroy whatever is left of their fledgling TV industry? Well Japan is the US ally, so likely we could get a decent deal for some right? Heh, Japanese are stingy as fuck, we shall see.

Either way, North Koreans were feeling the pinch of those sanctions. Fucking with the West was cute until even the rich NK citizens were becoming poor overnight. Obama and others never called that bluff properly. He knew he could not keep control of that country with no paper. He turned into a bitch really quick.

No place on Earth differs from another. You can fuck with whoever you want, just don't fuck with the money.

Good post and I agree. But isn't all of that a good thing?

Well, yes and no.

No more standoff and warmongering is a very good thing. It's bad for the Earth, bad for politics, bad for business (everyone's except the USA military industrial complex), and bad for North Korean people.

It's a little bit bad because it can help China, which is growing super strong financially, get even stronger. It could have the unintended consequence of the USA in the long term have to draw down or dismantle the base there. (good and bad there as well). You could make sound arguments in favor or against the need to contain China or Russia with a base there.

Some might not think this way, but a unified East Asia (maybe minus Japan) may have unintended consequences that do not fall in favor of the West.

I don't really care either way. Small govt. types have good sound reasoning for this, I personally do not like the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) either, but statecraft is never really about the ideology of home in a sense. Platitudes do not keep cars running and energy flowing. Political Realism and Realpolitik matters a lot more.

Would you like to see the rise of a new OPEC, but East Asia style? Might not be oil, but could be rare earth materials, uranium, etc. etc. The South Koreans, vote the American base off their soil after they unify? If we say no, who looks awful there? We are supposed to be paragons of Democracy. I can even see a scenario where the UN is about to get even weaker than it ever has been in history.

Deep State and globalist banker sycophants, likely will be looking for payback on this. Trump is the biggest throat to choke here. That's the only real concern I have here. Other than that, it's all positive to me. Anything else can likely be worked out somehow.

The vast majority of wars are over resources and money. Even religious ones. Always have, always will be. These days it's packaged in a nicer box with lots of pretty white papers to sign. The sausage is in the back, still bloody as ever.

Post: #895

Even though the Soviet Union dissolved, the US still has a number of huge bases in Germany. So, even if the Koreas unify, the US will likely keep many of the bases on the peninsula and in Japan, because those two countries will want us there to help keep China in check.

The US is almost finished constructing a huge mega-base in S. Korea at Camp Humphreys, about 40 miles south of Seoul. There was already a plan in place to pull back US forces from the border and from the garrison in Seoul to Humphreys.

Post: #896

(04-30-2018 08:11 AM)C-Note Wrote:  Even though the Soviet Union dissolved, the US still has a number of huge bases in Germany. So, even if the Koreas unify, the US will likely keep many of the bases on the peninsula and in Japan, because those two countries will want us there to help keep China in check.

The US is almost finished constructing a huge mega-base in S. Korea at Camp Humphreys, about 40 miles south of Seoul. There was already a plan in place to pull back US forces from the border and from the garrison in Seoul to Humphreys.

I remember foreign policy experts back when I was in college talking about how young S Koreans did not fear the North at all and did not think US bases were necessary.

Now that a peace deal is on the brink? That mega base could be wasted money.

You are right about Japan. That base there isnt going anywhere, anytime soon at least. We are there because they surrendered from a war. Different from the Korea situation. I cannot see a reason (politically) why that base would exist in a unification scenario. China is not that much of a threat to them physically. It's not like they are some poor little couple of countries that do not have the technology to defend themselves with nukes, etc.

Nuke armed countries do not invade other nuke armed countries. China also isn't anywhere near as aggressive militarily as other countries like America for example. They have never invaded another country and the one time they tried to invade Vietnam, they got their asses kicked at the border. The Chinese just want everyone's money in some form or fashion. Any aggression they show to anyone, anytime soon will be Hong Kong or Taiwan first, but likely they will play a long game of soft power takeovers and be patient.

With the technology we have now, a giant floating naval base in the pacific is not outside the realm of possibility either. Some countries might howl about it, international waters blah blah, but meh.

Post: #897

Everyone talking about Chinese aggression and yet there are really only two major powers in the world invading, killing, and maiming people in clear violation of international law: US and Israel

Post: #898

^ People are rightfully concerned that China might be lying about a "peaceful" rise just like they lie about a lot of things. I know, I know, you're going to trot out "the West does all these things too!" but does the world need another super power repeating the cycle? If the answer to that is "no," do you expect China to be different in anyway if the other nations don't put pressure on China to keep a lid on their encroachment?

Post: #899

(04-30-2018 10:35 AM)Fortis Wrote:  ^ People are rightfully concerned that China might be lying about a "peaceful" rise just like they lie about a lot of things. I know, I know, you're going to trot out "the West does all these things too!" but does the world need another super power repeating the cycle? If the answer to that is "no," do you expect China to be different in anyway if the other nations don't put pressure on China to keep a lid on their encroachment?

Ditto. ALL countries take advantage of their weaker neighbors and seek to gain resources when they have a domestic shortage. This is human nature and has been going on since the first Homo Erectus tribes quarreled over land hundreds of thousands of years ago. The idea that a strong China won't bully its neighbors is laughable, especially given their water and energy shortages, sense of historical grievance, and the BS they are pulling now in the South China sea.

Unification will make it infinitely harder for the US to justify its new base, and it's an open question whether a unified Korea would take the US's side in an effort to contain China. Culturally, they have far more in common with China, with ties going back over a thousand years, and China has never abused them the way Japan did during WW2.

Anyway, I don't understand Kim's game. Once his country opens up to the outside world with a free flow of investment and travel, then the clock starts ticking on unification since it will be harder for him to convince the North Korean people that the status quo is better than them having access to the same life that South Koreans have.

I can't imagine what role he would play in a unified Korea - best case scenario is he takes his billions and retires.

Maybe with the sanctions and threat of war, Kim realizes that staying in power is going to be a nonstop headache, and if China isn't going to back him unconditionally, he could end up like Saddam Hussein. Better to leave a positive legacy than be executed and humiliated.

If Trump's strategy was able to change Kim's calculus, then the President deserves credit for this turnaround. But for now, I'm skeptical until it's clear what Kim's endgame is.

EDIT: Just saw this article and it gives an interesting perspective on how Korean unification will allow the US to devote more bandwidth to containing China

Quote:If America and its allies can ink an agreement that sees North Korea give up its nuclear arsenal in a fully verifiable manner, the balance of power in Asia would be completely transformed. Pyongyang would become a much more manageable threat, and Team Trump would finally be able to combat the biggest problem Washington faces on the world stage today: a rising China that wants to completely overturn the international system in its favor.

In many respects, nothing should scare China more, as America, and specifically the Trump administration, has never been fully capable of taking on the challenges presented by Beijing thanks to Pyongyang and its growing nuclear arsenal. China has taken full advantage of Washington’s wandering eye, putting itself in position to dominate the South China Sea, further subjugate Taiwan, and try to develop a stronger position in the East China Sea. Remove the North Korea crisis from Asia and the Trump administration has the needed bandwidth to contain Beijing’s aspirations.
...
He continued: “We get benefits from this that I think a lot of people in Washington forget about. If you are worried about North Korea’s military, or how Beijing can help Pyongyang, you don’t care as much about our larger goals in Asia. We lose that if Pyongyang was to come out of the cold and give up its nukes. I am sure this has to keep the [Chinese] leadership up at night.”

Post: #900

(04-30-2018 10:35 AM)Fortis Wrote:  ^ People are rightfully concerned that China might be lying about a "peaceful" rise just like they lie about a lot of things. I know, I know, you're going to trot out "the West does all these things too!" but does the world need another super power repeating the cycle? If the answer to that is "no," do you expect China to be different in anyway if the other nations don't put pressure on China to keep a lid on their encroachment?

The Chinese are encroaching on things they once owned in past history. The South China Sea for example. They never once owned the Koreas as a territory (tribute demands isn't the same thing). They had a handful of wars from 100 something BC and Tang Dynasty wars in the 600's AD. They have not fought each other for well over 1000 years. There is huff over whether Guan Yu was actually Korean or Chinese, but that is the extent of their beefs these days.

When the Chinese controlled the South China Sea, they held it for a very long time until the pesky British more or less weakened their power over it.

An understanding of Chinese culture means if you study their history, China is so fucking huge in terms of landmass and surrounding water, it fueled their ethnocentrism views. They think the land itself is the center of the universe. Zhong Guo, means "Central Country" in English. In a Chinese mindset, no other lands really matter to them. They consider the South Sea to be part of this and has so for thousands of years. To them it's just another toll booth near their land. In certain dynasties, Chinese pirates controlled by the emperor (on the payroll) used to control the waters per se.

I doubt anyone is going to get them to back down off the waters near them. If anyone thinks America is going to check them on that, good luck with that shit. If push came to shove, you think America would let Mexico expand their territory claims in the Gulf of Mexico? Even if Mexico grew into a more powerful country? Yeah right. America has controlled most of that gulf for too long to give that up without a fight, even if it gets weaker in 50 years.

There are two big issues with the SCS:

1. The fishing rights (food sources)

2. Oil potentially underneath as well as other minerals of value.

China letting the dogs loose on baby making knows that food sourcing is key to stability. Control of the large area has price at the market implications. They certainly do not want Thailand or the Philippines pulling up more seafood from a competition standpoint and from a standpoint of having enough seafood to meet demand and control costs.

The oil is major because while China's oil exploration and production in terms of upstream goes, is still but a baby, having control for the future means alot to them. They don't even know just how much they have on land, but better safe than sorry just incase it is not much. Cars are clogging up the roads, towns, and everywhere in China. They are car crazy and that trend isn't going down. Like America they will get aggressive for supplies, but they know there is plenty within the traditional territory they can tap when they close that knowledge gap and technology gap. Eventually they would like to buy less oil abroad by some date I am sure they discuss in Beijing.

Other things is that it is a bigger security buffer and control of the seas means it is easier to catch modern pirates, crimes, other riff raff.

Chinese mindset is to be obsessed with orderly control and stability for China. No way they repeat history and get into fights with Vietnam and Korea again. Lots of those super old wars they took heavy losses or got nothing out of it. They suck when it comes to invasions, because no emperor thought other lands were more important than China. Also when you have to worry about warlords in every quadrant of this massive country with no telegram or internet, it took a shit load of work to maintain order.

I personally think if Chinese ever start acting like Americans, the following has happened after at least a few generations of younger Chinese:

1. Became a type of democracy.
2. Feminism is rampant. Culture all but forgotten.
3. They are number 1 most powerful country and the neighbors turned to shit around them.

Could be all 3 for that to happen, but I laugh at anyone claiming the Chinese will invade people as their power grows. That's like getting pussy in a vacuum. Shit just does not happen like that. Wars are not cold heartless decisions like a computer science workflow. They have heavy social underlying factors underneath the surface usually involving the corruption of money and wealth.