Post: #326

(07-27-2016 03:23 PM)Engineer Wrote:  

(07-27-2016 02:45 PM)jj90 Wrote:  @Engineer, good find! From reading the documentation it doesn't seem to apply to only old lots, just that old lots don't get prorated(they will be filled). I'm gathering capital to allocate now.

Thanks! Can you explain more the difference between prorating and not prorating in this tender? I'm very new to this.

My only other concern is perhaps they tried it before in January (see below) and it fell thru? The date of the current tender was July 11.

BETHESDA, Md., Jan. 26, 2016 – Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) has entered into a definitive agreement to separate and combine its realigned Information Systems & Global Solutions (IS&GS) business segment with Leidos Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LDOS) in a tax-efficient Reverse Morris Trust transaction, unlocking $5 billion in estimated enterprise value for Lockheed Martin stockholders.

I finally had some time to look at this in detail:

1. In LMT's press release, it states that the this is the same tender which was announced in January - heres the press release: http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/pr...offer.html

2. Here is another concern that I have: Prior to the transaction, Leidos will declare a special dividend to its shareholders in the amount of $1 billion (as I understand, to normalize its tax base to qualify for the tax-free treatment of this specific type of merger), and also pay a separate cash payment to LMT in the amount of $1 billion. Leidos will be taking on debt in order to make these payments. In exchange, of course, Leidos will receive the spinoff company. http://investors.leidos.com/phoenix.zhtm...ID=2132192

What do you think of the possibility that the payment of these dividends will lead to a decrease in the share value of the Company, since the Company is taking on a significant amount of debt, and also that its lowering its cash holdings? Would this kind of stuff technically already be incorporated into the current share price of the stock, since it was announced quite a while ago?

Further, if a lot of people buy LMT shares just to participate in the tender, and then immediately sell the shares once receiving Leidos shares, do you expect for this massive sell-off also lead to strong downward pressure for the stock?

I actually found a website which specifically deals with investing in these types of arbitrage opportunities: http://www.specialsituationinvestments.com - it seems that most of the deals result in him making immediate profit.

Engineer, jj90 what are you guys thinking? Are you both planning to hedge?

I'm thinking Im just going to watch this from the sidelines and take careful notes, so I feel confident going all in the next time one of these comes around.

Post: #327

@se7en: I'll be buying 99 LMT shares and electing to tender so I get filled and hedging out in the meantime with a LMT put.

Yes, Leidos stock price will drop immediately on issue of the special div, the wording in the tender makes it so we are in right after at least that's how it's done and how I'm interpreting it. I don't care about the debt load and etc, I'm dumping the swapped LDOS shares the second I get it.

This is not a pure arb scenario, it's riskarb. Prob of making money is fairly high though, there are of course unknown unknowns that could happen.

Post: #328

In terms of indices doing well, breakouts holding up and now, leading stocks starting to perform well, I’d say this market seems to be hitting on all cylinders.

We’ve had only one real distribution day in quite some time. Most days have been accumulation days.

It seems institutional money is coming into the market.

We’re currently overbought on the nasdaqbut seem to be staying overbought. This is a sign of the classic “lockout” rally.

In other words, if you miss it or don’t buy in, it keeps going and an investor who does that will kick themselves…hence, lockout rally.

We are, however,getting a small pullback in the DOW but not in the nasdaq. I think it’s good money seems to be going into the nasdaq more than the DOW.

We’re actually oversold on the DOW, overbought on the nasdaq currently.

Sentiment is boding well; bulls vs bears.

Cash levels for investors are at highest levels in 15 years!

54 million americans believe cash is the best long term investment!

In other words, the market’s making new highs and everyone is doubting it. That type of sentiment often precedes a positive long term trend for stocks.

Economy has not been overheated so rates are in no real danger of going up.

To summarize:

* Nasdaq extended short term here
* Any pullbacks should be contained to no more than 5%
* focus on strong stock charts and set ups
* Buy at optimum places (low risk) entry points.
* Use stops

Stocks I'm watching*:

FB
SWHC
DLTH
OLLI

These aren't recommendations and always use your own research and buying methods. I advocate stops in case a trade doesn't go your way.

Post: #329

Hey guys wondering if someone can help me in understanding if this is A. a scam, and if not if it's B. a decent investment.

So a couple months I get a call about an IPO for AHIT at $1.50. You couldn't trade the shares for 180 days though.

Fast forward to this week, I check on the stock and it's trading at $5.30. I get a calll this past Friday, they say they are raising cash and I can buy shares at $3 per share with no limit on how soon I can trade them. Min buyin is 5k.

This makes my alarm bells go off because "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is". Why is this company offering me a stock I can turn around and sell tomorrow for $5.30, assuming the volume is there to actually make my trade go through.

I'm wondering A. if this is a scam, and if it's legit what are the risks? I assume the shares are being diluted since they are issuing more shares. I can't make sense of this. It sounds like the movie boiler room to me but the greedy part of me wants to get in.

Again the stock is AHIT. Can anyone comment on this?

Post: #330

@jamaicabound: Trades on OTCBB. Enough said. Spent a grand total of 5 mins looking at this and stopped when I couldn't find any easily accessible info.

Shitty puns aside, you'll be taking a hit on this.

My brother if you want to get fucked, at least hire a hooker.

Post: #331

I've been using this Acorn app and it's pretty good at helping maintain your change with interest, even after the Brexit, I've gained over $6 in interest in about 2 months.

Post: #332

(08-01-2016 05:10 PM)robreke Wrote:  In other words, the market’s making new highs and everyone is doubting it. That type of sentiment often precedes a positive long term trend for stocks.

Economy has not been overheated so rates are in no real danger of going up.

I still haven't shifted money back into a longterm stock portfolio.

However, thank god I did buy S&P e-minis to capture some of the latest run up when it was trading in that tight channel. I think what i'll do is just keep adding to futures position on every dip.

Some traders are calling "goldilocks" now and that the market will head into stratospheric highs now that it's broken out. Some talks of 2400 S&P. The kind of chatter that makes you nervous but I suppose it could be heading to a Schiller P/E ratio of 40+ territory.

Then irrational exuberance takes over..

In the meantime the unemployment situation reported well and central bank is fully on board with pumping assets higher.

Inflation is still not an issue and apparently neither is recession..yet.

Besides all the cash sitting on the side there is something ridiculous like 90%+ short on the SPX

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?utm_so...mpaign=twr


This means there's going to be a lot of short covering (maybe?) and if the regular investor money starts flowing in it could squeeze really high.

Post: #333

The Bank of England yesterday cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest in its 322-year history

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-engl...1470309155

Post: #334

(07-09-2016 07:34 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

(06-09-2016 07:19 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  [quote='chakalaka' pid='1297721' dateline='1462838225']
I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

One month since the launch of the Roosh values ETF. Let´s check the results:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 0,22%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...-4,64%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................1%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........15,29%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,94%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -1,84%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.......................-4,04%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................6,63%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................3,13%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................33,33%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ (New)
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........(New)
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................(New)

Yeld since inception: 5,102%

S&P500: 1,49% (dividends not included)

We are now going to add Brasil ETF and Peru ETF:

Brazil's new cabinet has no Women. They outed the lesbian.

If this wasn´t enough Michel Temer´s wife is a former beauty queen with his name tattooed on her neck.

They deserve to be included in the Roosh ETF.

As for Peru a pro market won elections. And Cusco was reported by Roosh as having the easiest lays in south america. Strict Roosh ETF criteria are met.

We will also add silver.

The ideal value invested in Roosh ETF is 1M.

This month we made 50k´s. Well done.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVISORY!!!!!!!!!

Another month. Another beating:


1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... -1,03%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC).....1,26%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................11,54%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........11,13%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................-0,73%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -2,21%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.........................-8,38%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................1,47%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,72%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................-23,65%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 12,26%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........6,51%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................-2,28%

This month we had a loss of 0,28%. Almost flat. But still. S&P gave 2% return.

Two events fucked up the return. The scandal with bitcoins (Bitfinex). And the interest rate cut by BOE. As for bitcoins I would have probably reduced with the news and reinforced the position after the dip.

I expected with the rate cut for stocks going up. At least in europe If this would be actively managed I would at least reduced positions in european shorts.

Until the end of this week will see if the rate cut was enough to give the necessary boost to stock markets.

There´s a consensus on real estate in the forum. Realty income has been added to the portefolio.

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... -1,03%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC).....1,26%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................11,54%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........11,13%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................-0,73%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -2,21%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.........................-8,38%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................1,47%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,72%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................-23,65%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 12,26%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........6,51%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................-2,28%
14. Realty Income................................................ New

Post: #335

Scooped up a few hundred shares of MGT at $3.00

Let's see where this train is headed.

Post: #336

Keep posts coming chakalaka. I differ a little on your perspective, but good and worth repping.

FYI - I got 20 bitcoins @ 531 and 1000 Ethereum @ 8. See btc thread. My other biggies are EMs YTD and one is up 70% against SP500. Only two under.

Post: #337

How many of you guys are playing futures? I'd be interested in getting into the market in energy and swing trading oil and/or NG.

Post: #338

If you don't already trade stocks successfully, don't do it. You'll just lose money faster.

Most futures can be replicated with the corresponding 2x or 3x ETF anyways.

Post: #339

I'm interested in the real products, the leverage and the fact they actually respond to supply and demand interests me more than equities that seem to trade @ hundreds of times earnings with no rhyme nor reason.

Post: #340

My brother, the point still stands that if you think that the commodity markets are going to make more sense just because they are physical you are gonna be taken for a ride.

If you can't make money in stocks, it's not any easier in energy land.

Post: #341

Who says I haven't made money in stocks? I'm interested in transitioning to the derivatives side of things, it just interests me more.

That being said, I've heard you should focus on one or two commodities that you know like the back of your hand. How do you feel about that statement?

Post: #342

^At least you don't call it investing, so thanks for keeping it real.

Post: #343

Good short here:

Valeant reportedly under criminal investigation for allegedly defrauding insurers

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/10/valeant-u...urces.html

Post: #344

(08-10-2016 07:14 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  ^At least you don't call it investing, so thanks for keeping it real.

I've been a swing trader for the last 3 years, investing is definitely a viable method, I just choose to be a little more active.

Post: #345

(08-10-2016 09:38 AM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  How many of you guys are playing futures? I'd be interested in getting into the market in energy and swing trading oil and/or NG.

I am professional futures trader. I trade commodities and also swaps and basis trades that are connected to the derivative.

If you want to be a great trader in commodities you need to start with one and you need to learn all the about the cash side of the business. Meaning you should be in contact with producers, end users and wholesalers. That alone will save you a ton of losses when starting out. You will lose money i guarantee it at first but this will limit the losses.

Very important to learn one sector and then one specific commodity within the sector before you start trading. Each market has their little nuances that you can make a ton of money by exploiting everything from seasonals, funds rolling contracts, certain data reports. A good example would be rig counts for oil. And one of the most important factors to trading futures contracts is you need to understand the basis trades going within the market.

At the same time you are learning that you need to hone your risk management skills. Trading futures with no plan and no risk management can result in blowing your account up over night. That is very hard to do when trading stock but not in the futures market. With the extreme leverage and 24 hour trading around the world your account can disappear over night.

My quick recommendation for trading any type of futures account is pretty simple but you have to stick with it. DO NOT ever risk more than 2% of your account on 1 trade. So if you are trading an oil contract you better have a 100,000 in your account and you better not take a draw down of more than 2000 on it. Those 2 things will save your ass. You will get stopped out a lot while you are learning but at least you wont blow your account up in the first week or 2.

Post: #346

I echo what BIGINJAPAN has said. You will want to know 1 product in and out, everything from what sort of news would impact the mkt to who are the players and where they are at. Lots of ways to position yourself once you know what you are doing. Outright price is of course the simplest, however it's the most random relative to spreads, basis etc. Most of the stuff you won't ever touch, you're not arbing a 50 cent differential by taking physical delivery, but you need to know in order to see how the mkt is positioned.

Comms gets pretty deep once you don't focus only on pure outright price. If you ever make it that far, you're gonna be getting a Bloomberg terminal. Only thing I disagree with BIG is that it's pretty easy to blow up in anywhere. In futures though it's even easier. And 24/5 trading is a double edged sword.

As far as effort goes, how ever much effort you put into being successful swing trading in stocks, multiply by 2x at least. Once you start to specialize in a particular product, CL, NG, HO, RB etc etc etc, you'll start to be able to formulate questions in order to approach other mkts. Good luck.

Post: #347

(08-10-2016 09:45 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:38 AM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  How many of you guys are playing futures? I'd be interested in getting into the market in energy and swing trading oil and/or NG.

I am professional futures trader. I trade commodities and also swaps and basis trades that are connected to the derivative.

If you want to be a great trader in commodities you need to start with one and you need to learn all the about the cash side of the business. Meaning you should be in contact with producers, end users and wholesalers. That alone will save you a ton of losses when starting out. You will lose money i guarantee it at first but this will limit the losses.

Very important to learn one sector and then one specific commodity within the sector before you start trading. Each market has their little nuances that you can make a ton of money by exploiting everything from seasonals, funds rolling contracts, certain data reports. A good example would be rig counts for oil. And one of the most important factors to trading futures contracts is you need to understand the basis trades going within the market.

At the same time you are learning that you need to hone your risk management skills. Trading futures with no plan and no risk management can result in blowing your account up over night. That is very hard to do when trading stock but not in the futures market. With the extreme leverage and 24 hour trading around the world your account can disappear over night.

My quick recommendation for trading any type of futures account is pretty simple but you have to stick with it. DO NOT ever risk more than 2% of your account on 1 trade. So if you are trading an oil contract you better have a 100,000 in your account and you better not take a draw down of more than 2000 on it. Those 2 things will save your ass. You will get stopped out a lot while you are learning but at least you wont blow your account up in the first week or 2.

Reading Market Wizards, that sentiment has been echoed by almost all of the best traders (1-3% account risk per position). I fully agree, but as a young guy, I also am prepared to risk it for gains early on to build up an account.

Would you advise swing trading futures in that they can change overnight or closing out positions on a daily basis to avoid risking losses? I suppose you could always place stop losses, but the jury is out on these as well, as you could potentially be stopped out just before a rally.

What do you think about starting with e-minis like QM to begin, as contracts are halved?

Is there a good resource for learning the initial margins for individual contracts, or do different brokers require different initial margin?

Post: #348

(08-11-2016 09:23 AM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:45 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:38 AM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  How many of you guys are playing futures? I'd be interested in getting into the market in energy and swing trading oil and/or NG.

I am professional futures trader. I trade commodities and also swaps and basis trades that are connected to the derivative.

If you want to be a great trader in commodities you need to start with one and you need to learn all the about the cash side of the business. Meaning you should be in contact with producers, end users and wholesalers. That alone will save you a ton of losses when starting out. You will lose money i guarantee it at first but this will limit the losses.

Very important to learn one sector and then one specific commodity within the sector before you start trading. Each market has their little nuances that you can make a ton of money by exploiting everything from seasonals, funds rolling contracts, certain data reports. A good example would be rig counts for oil. And one of the most important factors to trading futures contracts is you need to understand the basis trades going within the market.

At the same time you are learning that you need to hone your risk management skills. Trading futures with no plan and no risk management can result in blowing your account up over night. That is very hard to do when trading stock but not in the futures market. With the extreme leverage and 24 hour trading around the world your account can disappear over night.

My quick recommendation for trading any type of futures account is pretty simple but you have to stick with it. DO NOT ever risk more than 2% of your account on 1 trade. So if you are trading an oil contract you better have a 100,000 in your account and you better not take a draw down of more than 2000 on it. Those 2 things will save your ass. You will get stopped out a lot while you are learning but at least you wont blow your account up in the first week or 2.

Reading Market Wizards, that sentiment has been echoed by almost all of the best traders (1-3% account risk per position). I fully agree, but as a young guy, I also am prepared to risk it for gains early on to build up an account.

Would you advise swing trading futures in that they can change overnight or closing out positions on a daily basis to avoid risking losses? I suppose you could always place stop losses, but the jury is out on these as well, as you could potentially be stopped out just before a rally.

What do you think about starting with e-minis like QM to begin, as contracts are halved?

Is there a good resource for learning the initial margins for individual contracts, or do different brokers require different initial margin?

I used to think like that to. Risking it all to make big gains. but i am telling you that will only set you back further. I somewhat got away with it when i was younger because i went balls deep at the end of 2008 and QE covered almost all of my mistakes. In this kind of market though you will get killed and probably blow your account up several times in the next couple years if you keep coming back. Learn risk management and don't get above your pay grade and the gains will come. In a couple years you will have plenty of money and can do whatever you want with it.

Nothing wrong with swing trading. That is how i trade futures in my own account. I hold positions for a couple of days to a couple of weeks. rarely do i hold longer than a month but it does happen.

If your account isnt all that big then yes i would start trading micro contracts such as gold. I think that one is a few hundred dollars. The half size contracts starting with Q are ok but even those are a few thousand dollars on oil and gold. If your account isnt big enough to trade those with proper risk management techniques then i wouldnt even bother. I would keep saving up and investing in classes, books and things like that before you really get into it.
There is a lot of great guys out there now that can teach you to trade anything on this planet. But remember you get what you pay for. The guys that charge big dollars to teach are the ones you want to learn from. Those guys make serious coin everyday and for them to teach you they need to make it worth their while. Those are the guys i would learn from. I am actively seeking out a teacher for some of the other commodity markets because i want to learn more for my personal account. When I find someone i will post it on here and let guys know.

Also one thing i had just read from peter brandt which i think i am going to start doing is closing out all losing futures positions on Friday. I think for my own sanity that alone will be great advice. But as for using stops you better be using them as a new trader for sure. I will always use them i think until the day i die. I cant monitor my own account all day and night because i look after a ton of other shit and i have meetings throughout the day that i cant just up and leave and trade my account. If you are using proper risk management and stops you can get stopped out several times before the big move commences. The whole point of using 2% is to keep you in the game so you can hit those homeruns. That is how you make it in futures trading. Small losses and huge winners. As long as the reason for buying or selling the contract hasnt changed and chart structure looks good or fundamentals are taking a bit longer to play out then you can keep entering the trade until you get it right. But if you go balls deep once or twice and you get stopped out you might not have any money left for when the move does happen. And that happens all the time, no one times the market perfectly that is why risk management matters so much.

As for the margin requirement it is different for each broker. The CME has requirements but for the most part your broker can change the requirements as they see fit. Also i am a Canadian and our margin requirements are definitely different than Americans for sure. Your intraday margin requirements are a lot lower than ours by the looks of it. But whatever broker you use they will have all the contract margin requirements on their website. I think they do a pretty good job of updating them as well because it can change quite a bit if volatility is spiking. Which is another reason to use proper account sizing. You might have a perfect trade on and making a killing but if they up the margin over night they might sell off your position because you cant cover the new margin and pushing you out of the trade. but with correct sizing you wont get pushed out and can stay in the trade even though volatility maybe spiking dramatically.

Post: #349

Whats everyones thoughts on uranium. I've had some bad investments in my day. But none has given me more of an ass whooping than Cameco. Should I get out now or should I just hold and hope for a rebound. Thankfully I only invested about 10k when it was in the mid $18 range.

Post: #350

@TheFinalEpic: Take it from me or BIG, swinging for the fences will simply get you blowing your account out. Take our advice or learn it for yourself.

@lavidaloca: If you have no reason to sell CCJ, don't. Oil has likely bottomed and CCJ is trading below/at book value so further extended downside is unlikely. You will likely have to hold for a few years, but there aren't any huge red flags that I can see.