Post: #426

Rumblings from the financial community about the possibility of stagflation (the curse of the 1970s). Note: I am posting this for information purposes... below doesn't reflect by own opinion on the subject.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...presidency


Faced with lingering uncertainty over Trump's policy proposals, the Goldman economists run through three different scenarios for the U.S. economy. The first is a "full" enactment of Trump's campaign promises with everything from increased fiscal spending to trade restrictions included. The second is a "benign scenario" in which only Trump's fiscal proposals are enacted. Lastly, there's an "adverse scenario" in which trade and immigration are curbed while the Federal Reserve grows more hawkish.



During our last period, after the Saudi oil shock / embargo, the S&P 500 dropped over 40%. More from a Seeking Alpha piece:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4008820-...ation-bust

Personally, I am staying in cash, cash equivalents, and precious metals to at least 1st quarter of next year. Per my financial advisor, markets are overvalued right now and will likely correct (my adviser is not nearly as pessimistic as I am). Given that the Republicans don't have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate, a lot of Trump's economic proposals might get gridlocked to death. At this point.. honestly, I have no idea what the market and the economy will do next year.

Post: #427

Everyone is sitting on their cash, but not Warren, he removed from WMT and invested in three airline stocks.

Post: #428

I am kicking myself in the ass! I run a simple 200MA to tell me whether to stay long or move to cash.

I missed the huge bull run for years because I was getting divorced and kept everything in cash. I lost over $200K in my divorce but have since built it back up to $40K. I was out because we dropped below the MA.

I have been so busy with work and some personal health issues I missed my signal to get back in! The SP is up nearly 100 points from where I would have gone long!!!

I am pissed. Now I have to decide do I get back in or wait for a pull back to drop below the MA again? Do I stick with 200MA drop down to 50MA???

Arrgh I am pissed at myself!

Post: #429

(11-21-2016 05:00 PM)Caractacus Potts Wrote:  I am kicking myself in the ass! I run a simple 200MA to tell me whether to stay long or move to cash.

I missed the huge bull run for years because I was getting divorced and kept everything in cash. I lost over $200K in my divorce but have since built it back up to $40K. I was out because we dropped below the MA.

I have been so busy with work and some personal health issues I missed my signal to get back in! The SP is up nearly 100 points from where I would have gone long!!!

I am pissed. Now I have to decide do I get back in or wait for a pull back to drop below the MA again? Do I stick with 200MA drop down to 50MA???

Arrgh I am pissed at myself!

No need to stress out over the past, you'll see some buying opportunities soon. Just sit tight with the cash money in the brokerage account. Pounce like a cheetah when panic hits.

Post: #430

nasdaq still coming out of long consolidation….it's forming a bit of a handle if you will:




Dow has broken out…




Small caps had been basing out (pretty much flatlining) all the way back to 2014:




Now,as you can see, they've been breaking out and running. Relative strength is breaking out…in small cap stocks.

My model (for myself and clients) has been on a full buy signal since mid- November. We were on a partial buy (partially invested) before then.

The indexes are obviously doing well, but this is becoming more and more of a stock pickers market. That is, stocks here and there are breaking out and running, and some of the indexes have yet to breakout. I think this will continue for some time.

Russell 2000 (small caps running) is a good sign of strength. This is a potential lock out rally, meaning those that are waiting for pullbacks won't really get them and the stocks will keep running. The key, if you're a stock picker, is to find stocks that haven't broken out yet, determine good entry points, and pick them off as they emerge from sound technical patterns.

The market maybe a little ahead of itself, but I’m not expecting huge pullbacks, maybe in the range of 2 % or so.

The conditions for a bear market are:

Rapid inflation
Big deflation
inverted yield curve, fed tightening
overvaluation…high PE ratio

The only thing at risk right now is fed tightening. Futures are showing a strong likelihood of fed tightening ( rising rates ) at the December Fed meeting.

Recently the 10 year bond took a big hump in yield from 1.8 to 2.35%

To summarize:

*Market possibly a bit extended, but not expecting a big pullback.
*This could be a 'lockout' rally
*Remain disciplined
*Wait for sound entry points..if you’re a technical trader.

Stocks in constructive, potentially buyable patterns:

YELP
Z
BERY

Post: #431

(11-18-2016 01:46 AM)Newbunymo Wrote:  Everyone is sitting on their cash, but not Warren, he removed from WMT and invested in three airline stocks.

All three of those airline investments were less than $1B each which is nothing for BRK, plus Buffett mentioned that any common stock purchases under $1B would be made by Combs and Weschler. Wouldn't chalk this up as a typical Warren Buffett purchase.

Post: #432

Few companies i believe that are going to perform good in the 2017 are:
Target Corporation:
In addition to so many shoppers, Target.com is consistently ranked as one of the most-visited retail web sites. I also buy a lot of course from it.
Procter & Gamble Co:
Procter & Gamble provides an annual dividend of 3.03%, or $2.68 per share. The company has raised its annual dividend for the last 60 consecutive years.

These are going to be my must invest best dividend stocks for 2017.

Post: #433

Anyone here know much about closed end funds? I've been doing research and it seems like several of the tax free muni bond CEF's I've been looking at have a pretty decent discount on price to NAV (Net Asset Value) per share, especially in more depressed states. Yields are in the 4.5-6% range and dividends are tax free from federal income tax - exempt from state income tax as well if you live in those states - although the fees will probably take 1% out of it. So tax free yield + margin of safety in the discount between the share price and the NAV + extreme difficulty/unlikelihood of default on governmental bonds = good deal?

I'm just wondering if a schlub like me can figure it out, why aren't big players in on this already? Am I missing something here?

Post: #434

(11-30-2016 09:54 PM)booshala Wrote:  Anyone here know much about closed end funds? I've been doing research and it seems like several of the tax free muni bond CEF's I've been looking at have a pretty decent discount on price to NAV (Net Asset Value) per share, especially in more depressed states. Yields are in the 4.5-6% range and dividends are tax free from federal income tax - exempt from state income tax as well if you live in those states - although the fees will probably take 1% out of it. So tax free yield + margin of safety in the discount between the share price and the NAV + extreme difficulty/unlikelihood of default on governmental bonds = good deal?

I'm just wondering if a schlub like me can figure it out, why aren't big players in on this already? Am I missing something here?

Be careful of holding bonds in an increasing interest rate environment.

Post: #435

(12-01-2016 12:15 AM)djk100 Wrote:  Be careful of holding bonds in an increasing interest rate environment.

I understand what you're trying to say but with the Federal funds rate at 25-50 bp, we are at the basement and interest rates have nowhere to go but up. By that standard, you're essentially saying "don't ever hold bonds".

Also these CEF's I'm looking at hold an aggregate grouping of bonds but the funds themselves are as liquid as stocks, you can get in and out at any time.

Post: #436

Had a lunch with bankers last week. They told me bonds still have a long way to go down. At least the next ten years.

Here´s a good explanation about interest rates and bonds. Basically if the interest rates go up. New bond issues will have higher yelds. Making the old ones which were issued with a lower interest rate and yeld undesirable. And therefore making it´s price go down. In the maturity though you will always get your money:

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/031904.asp

I didn´t read it anywhere. But I guess if the interest rate goes up. People will just put their money in deposits and collect an interest rate. Even if bonds pay more yeld and can be sold.

Supposedly to leverage in fixed income securities you should go to unregulated markets. An example of this type of markets is Dubai.

Post: #437

Fed raises rates, sees faster pace of increases in 2017

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN1430G4

"The rate increase, regarded as a virtual certainty by financial markets in the wake of a string of generally strong economic reports, raised the target federal funds rate 25 basis points to between 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent.

More significant was a fresh batch of Fed policymaker forecasts that indicated the current once-a-year pace of rate increases will accelerate next year."

Post: #438

2016 did see some changes in the Warren Buffett profile, he left Suncor and WMT and bought airline stocks.

Post: #439

(08-09-2016 08:05 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

(07-09-2016 07:34 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

(06-09-2016 07:19 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  [quote='chakalaka' pid='1297721' dateline='1462838225']
I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

One month since the launch of the Roosh values ETF. Let´s check the results:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 0,22%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...-4,64%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................1%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........15,29%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,94%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -1,84%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.......................-4,04%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................6,63%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................3,13%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................33,33%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ (New)
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........(New)
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................(New)

Yeld since inception: 5,102%

S&P500: 1,49% (dividends not included)

We are now going to add Brasil ETF and Peru ETF:

Brazil's new cabinet has no Women. They outed the lesbian.

If this wasn´t enough Michel Temer´s wife is a former beauty queen with his name tattooed on her neck.

They deserve to be included in the Roosh ETF.

As for Peru a pro market won elections. And Cusco was reported by Roosh as having the easiest lays in south america. Strict Roosh ETF criteria are met.

We will also add silver.

The ideal value invested in Roosh ETF is 1M.

This month we made 50k´s. Well done.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVISORY!!!!!!!!!

Another month. Another beating:


1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... -1,03%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC).....1,26%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................11,54%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........11,13%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................-0,73%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -2,21%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.........................-8,38%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................1,47%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,72%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................-23,65%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 12,26%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........6,51%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................-2,28%

This month we had a loss of 0,28%. Almost flat. But still. S&P gave 2% return.

Two events fucked up the return. The scandal with bitcoins (Bitfinex). And the interest rate cut by BOE. As for bitcoins I would have probably reduced with the news and reinforced the position after the dip.

I expected with the rate cut for stocks going up. At least in europe If this would be actively managed I would at least reduced positions in european shorts.

Until the end of this week will see if the rate cut was enough to give the necessary boost to stock markets.

There´s a consensus on real estate in the forum. Realty income has been added to the portefolio.

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... -1,03%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC).....1,26%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................11,54%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........11,13%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................-0,73%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -2,21%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.........................-8,38%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................1,47%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,72%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................-23,65%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 12,26%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........6,51%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................-2,28%
14. Realty Income................................................ New

Did this guy beat the market with a Roosh ETF?