Post: #226

@DJ-Matt: Lending Club has been on my radar for awhile, I haven't taken a in depth look at their financials and modelled it out but generally I'm of the opinion that likely the stock has bottomed out. Most of the issues are behind it, if the equity declines it likely won't be a big gap lower but a slow grind so you can cut your losses if your thesis isn't working out.

Post: #227

Y'all niggas need to put all your chips on Sandridge.

I kid, I kid.

Post: #228

If the ~$4 price is the bottom I definitely need to buy some.

Post: #229

This news today: "U.S. companies hired at the slowest pace in more than five years in May, clouding the outlook for Federal Reserve officials as they prepare to debate increasing short-term interest rates at a policy meeting this month."

Despite the fact that the US is too weak to weather a weak rate hike, I am in the green on all of my holdings (including gold, oddly). When is the crash coming?

Post: #230

@sev7en: Rates go down, bonds/gold go up. Inverse holds as well.

Post: #231

Bought Valeant on TSX 31.54.

Post: #232

They are at 24.64 now...

Post: #233

(06-03-2016 11:44 AM)se7en Wrote:  Despite the fact that the US is too weak to weather a weak rate hike, I am in the green on all of my holdings (including gold, oddly). When is the crash coming?

Who knows really.

Economic fundamentals and even earnings no longer matter anymore it's all about money printing and global central bank reactionary buying with algorithim traders leading the way.

The reason why a lot of stuff is green including defensive assets is because there's a lot of liquidity in the market. Cash is seeking any type of return possible so it's going everywhere boosting everything up. Market index volume on the other hand is super low.

At this rate if market breaks previous all time market highs..most notably S&P 500 2134 level and builds up momentum we could very well get a continuing bull run for awhile. It's definitely a bubble but that old adage remains true the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I'm sitting out for now in other business investments. I really think in this market environment the safest assets to hold are actual physical and productive assets you can see and feel. I don't trust this shit one bit.

Some guys who go by Elliot wave theory would say this last break of new ATH and run up would be the 5th and last wave of a bull run before it finally exhausts itself.

Post: #234

It seems to me that early 2017 is gonna be when the levee breaks

Post: #235

@sourcecode: lol you are looking at NY bro. I'm talking Toronto.

Post: #236

(05-09-2016 06:57 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

One month since the launch of the Roosh values ETF. Let´s check the results:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 0,22%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...-4,64%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................1%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........15,29%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,94%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -1,84%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.......................-4,04%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................6,63%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................3,13%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................33,33%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ (New)
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........(New)
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................(New)

Yeld since inception: 5,102%

S&P500: 1,49% (dividends not included)

We are now going to add Brasil ETF and Peru ETF:

Brazil's new cabinet has no Women. They outed the lesbian.

If this wasn´t enough Michel Temer´s wife is a former beauty queen with his name tattooed on her neck.

They deserve to be included in the Roosh ETF.

As for Peru a pro market won elections. And Cusco was reported by Roosh as having the easiest lays in south america. Strict Roosh ETF criteria are met.

We will also add silver.

The ideal value invested in Roosh ETF is 1M.

This month we made 50k´s. Well done.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVISORY!!!!!!!!!

Post: #237

(06-09-2016 07:19 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  We will also add silver.

Investing in bullion is such a waste of money. The only reason we hold gold, is because it's a decent hedge for larger portfolios. For the average trader/investor, holding gold/silver is silly and frankly, is a waste of your capital.

Post: #238

What do you guys think of Walmart as a longer term play? Years.

As we know Walmart(the store) is incredibly cheap compared to other grocery stores. From my experience people often choose to pay more somewhere else to have less of a hassle and not have to deal with the lower class crowd at Walmart. It is just not worth it to stop in for a couple of things.

Their solution?

They are building these new grocery stores. They call them Walmart Neighborhood Market.

These little Neighbor Market stores in my local area are great. It is quick and significantly cheaper than any other grocery store in the area. For their brand or vegetables/fruits they are often 50% less than the other stores. Everything else is 25% less or more.

I am thinking that these stores will take off and Walmart will put a hurting on grocery store chains around the country. Just like they put a hurting on most department stores a couple of decades ago. What are your thoughts?

EDIT: Apparently they started these in 1998 but I have never seen or heard of them until this year and I am seeing a few
http://www.businessinsider.com/wal-mart-...ion-2015-6

"Wal-Mart is gearing up to dominate the grocery business.

The retailer's smaller-format stores, called Neighborhood Markets, are a major threat to traditional supermarkets "

"Melding locational convenience with an easier-to-shop store with a Supercenter-oriented pricing strategy presents a new set of competitive factors that we believe many supermarket operators will have difficulty addressing," the analysts write.

"Moody's expects Neighborhood Markets to eventually outnumber Supercenters, with the smaller stores relying on the warehouses as supply hubs. Wal-Mart now has 645 Neighborhood Market locations and more than 3,400 Supercenters."

Post: #239

(06-11-2016 07:20 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  What do you guys think of Walmart as a longer term play? Years.

Walmart is an excellent long-term investment. I purchased a bunch of shares at $59.91 a while back, and have no intention whatsoever of selling. WMT is a company that, due to its consistency and predictability, you can hold and have the ability to estimate (reasonably well) its price in a couple of years.

Post: #240

Anyone invest in gun stocks after violence, political chaos?

Seems like Smith and Wesson for the next month would be a good short term buy.... thoughts?

Anyone succeeded in this? Or buying Home Depot after a hurricane etc?

Post: #241

Anyone find interesting trading ideas on Brexit fears? The obvious ones are the UK related ETFs. But I'm looking to find something that has been unjustifiably hit, and will do fine regardless of the vote.

Post: #242

@Jaydublin: I echo Weekend Casanova, WMT is a good buy almost anytime.

@Travesty: I do a good amount of contrarian buys/sells but you need to have your thesis right. Example in point, take a look at the gun stocks right now after the weekend. They did NOT go down.

@Kissinger2014: I'm staying out of this one on Brexit, but a good idea I skimmed off another forum I go to is short Jul VIX futures, long Aug, short Sept(short the fly). If you've never traded volatility, don't do this or go into it as a learning lesson. You've been warned.

A less arcane idea would simply buy UK equities regardless of the outcome the next day.

Post: #243

Kissinger2014, take a look at Scotsgold SGZ, should rise from 0.77 to 1.50 short term, moving from explorer to producer, first gold pour to coincide with Brexit, the start of a significant gold mining industry in Scotland, gold prices set to rise.

Post: #244

Also CTAG, this share will be multiples of what it is now in 3/6/12 months from now. Wearable medical grade ECG heart rate watch that is only just launching this year with contracts lined up with John Lewis / Amazon / Boots / Dixons etc. Potential target for Samsung acquisition, vastly superior technologically to Fitbit which has x 100 CTAG's market cap.

Post: #245

(06-14-2016 11:55 AM)jj90 Wrote:  @Jaydublin: I echo Weekend Casanova, WMT is a good buy almost anytime.

@Travesty: I do a good amount of contrarian buys/sells but you need to have your thesis right. Example in point, take a look at the gun stocks right now after the weekend. They did NOT go down.

@Kissinger2014: I'm staying out of this one on Brexit, but a good idea I skimmed off another forum I go to is short Jul VIX futures, long Aug, short Sept(short the fly). If you've never traded volatility, don't do this or go into it as a learning lesson. You've been warned.

A less arcane idea would simply buy UK equities regardless of the outcome the next day.

I'd stay away from this trade too, huge amount of un-defendable risk!

Post: #246

(06-15-2016 02:12 PM)Omad Wrote:  I'd stay away from this trade too, huge amount of un-defendable risk!

I fail to see where you think being short the fly is more risky than outright short Jul VIX futures.

Post: #247

Starting to see a lot more credible, well known financial people coming out with broad, bearish sentiments.

Quote:DoubleLine's Gundlach says 'central banks are losing control'

Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday investors are dropping risky assets and turning to safer securities including Treasuries and gold because they are losing faith in central banks.

The man known on Wall Street as the 'Bond King' is one of the first heavyweight investors to publicly raise red flags about the credibility of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as countries struggle to manage economic growth.

Last year, Gundlach correctly predicted that oil prices would plunge, junk bonds would live up to their name and China's slowing economy would pressure emerging markets. In 2014, he forecast U.S. Treasury yields would fall, not rise as many others had expected.

"Central banks are losing control and they don't know what to do ... just like the Republican establishment and Donald Trump," Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview, referring to the Republic Party's unpredictable presumptive nominee for U.S. President.

Safe-haven German Bund yields fell below zero on Tuesday for the first time and global equity markets slid for a fourth day in a row on intensifying worries about a potential British exit from the European Union next week.

Gundlach's remarks come the day before U.S. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged following a dismal May jobs report.

"The Fed is confused and their confusion spills into investor psychology," said Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine.

"The Fed changes its tone so frequently, it seems every other week the message is different. They’ve turned into the 'Zombie Fed.' They say the meeting this week is 'live,' but investors all know it isn't at all."

Gundlach said it is a "dangerous price appreciation game" to purchase German Bunds at current levels and that gold and gold miners are still an attractive place to put money to work.

On a webcast for investors later on Tuesday he said negative interest rates implemented by some major central banks, notably in Japan, were backfiring. "Negative interest rates don't do what they're theoretically supposed to do," he said, noting the appreciation in the Japanese yen.

He added that negative interest rates "aren't leading to higher economic growth." He said world gross domestic product could be averaging around just 1 percent against the backdrop of aggressive global monetary policies.

Gundlach also noted the dramatic "drawdowns" from the highs in several stock markets. Germany is down 22 percent, Japan is down 23 percent, China is down 45 percent, the United Kingdom market is down 15 percent and France is down 20 percent.

"Negative rates do not prop up stock markets," Gundlach said on the webcast.

Gundlach's prescient investment calls have accelerated DoubleLine's rise and earned him a reputation as a savvy investor. DoubleLine's flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX.O), which invests mainly in mortgage-backed securities, has assets of $60.3 billion, making it one of the world's largest bond mutual funds.

"This summer is going to be a rocky ride," Gundlach said, summarizing his outlook.

Bill Gross, Carl Ichann and George Soros have said similar things recently (though the last one especially is probably just talking his book...)

Post: #248

(06-15-2016 05:23 PM)jj90 Wrote:  

(06-15-2016 02:12 PM)Omad Wrote:  I'd stay away from this trade too, huge amount of un-defendable risk!

I fail to see where you think being short the fly is more risky than outright short Jul VIX futures.

That's not what I said.

Post: #249

(06-13-2016 08:31 PM)Travesty Wrote:  Anyone invest in gun stocks after violence, political chaos?

Seems like Smith and Wesson for the next month would be a good short term buy.... thoughts?

Anyone succeeded in this? Or buying Home Depot after a hurricane etc?

You buy before the storm strikes, if you buy after it hits you'll get crumbs.

Post: #250

Update # 17


Monday morning we had a rally on news implying the UK will stay in the EU.

Today was tepid sideways action. It seems the markets are waiting for the big vote on Thursday regarding Brexit.

If england leaves the EU it could cause a selloff.

We’re fluctuating between 5000 and 4680 on nasdaq . A decisive break above 5000 is what I'd like to see. It seems the nasdaq is one of the leading indexes lately.

While still on an overall buy and owning a few stocks, Some red sell flags have occurred such as a big reversal (to the downside) on heavy volume last week. Also, some pivot (breakout) failures have occurred lately along with a few stocks getting stopped out.

Stocks are holding up okay overall. However, there's not many good setups.

We’re currently holding above the 200 day moving average on the nasdaq and even followed through a bit on Monday.

summary

News driven market (UK in or out of EU? Brexit vote Thursday)
Brexit = volatility
not time to get aggressive
don’t force trades
keep stops in place

Stocks to keep an eye on: GDDY is in an IPO base. If it breaks above it's current somewhat tight consolidation, it could be considered for buying. As always, do your own research first.