Post: #276

(06-09-2016 07:19 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

(05-09-2016 06:57 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

One month since the launch of the Roosh values ETF. Let´s check the results:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 0,22%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...-4,64%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................1%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........15,29%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,94%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -1,84%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.......................-4,04%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................6,63%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................3,13%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................33,33%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ (New)
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........(New)
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................(New)

Yeld since inception: 5,102%

S&P500: 1,49% (dividends not included)

We are now going to add Brasil ETF and Peru ETF:

Brazil's new cabinet has no Women. They outed the lesbian.

If this wasn´t enough Michel Temer´s wife is a former beauty queen with his name tattooed on her neck.

They deserve to be included in the Roosh ETF.

As for Peru a pro market won elections. And Cusco was reported by Roosh as having the easiest lays in south america. Strict Roosh ETF criteria are met.

We will also add silver.

The ideal value invested in Roosh ETF is 1M.

This month we made 50k´s. Well done.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVISORY!!!!!!!!!

Another month. Another beating:


1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 7,65%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...32,08%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................-7,70%
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)...........-6,21%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,47%
6. Short S&P500 ETF ......................................... -1,32%
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF.........................7,62%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................-18,81%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,26%
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) .....................22,04%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 6,74%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........4,36%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................16,70%

1 month yeld: 4,33% (dividends not included).

1month yeld S&P 500: 0,68%

Yep. We did it again.

In the third month some changes will be made. Due to brexit. The Uk will enter Roosh values portefolio. Even though probably a long term play. Brexit will be beneficial to the UK.

About gold and precious metals:

"But when gold does well, its returns are often so spectacular - sometimes exceeding 100% in a year - that it can all by itself, set an otherwise lackluster portefolio glittering".

In Inteligent Investor footnote pg 55.

Post: #277

^^

There's nothing particularly unique or special about that portfolio. It's performing well because it's full of hybrid assets. This is a market environment where nearly all hybrid/defensive assets have been outperforming the index.

If the market starts breaking out and running up in a continuation bull market those hybrid assets could very well get crushed.

Post: #278

Soros is betting on gold and shorting DB.

Post: #279

How George Soros Singlehandedly Created The European Refugee Crisis - And Why

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-08...why?page=1

Post: #280

I´ve gotten rid off what I consider hybrid assets. And it still outperforms the market giving 3,80% yeld.

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ............................... 7,65%
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)...32,08%
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF .....................-7,70%
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD) ......................1,47%
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)............................-18,81%
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV).............................-8,26%
11. iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)............ 6,74%
12. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (EPU)...........4,36%
13. iShares Silver Trust (SLV)..............................16,70%

This ETF is not to be taken too serious. It´s loosely based on the common consensus on some topics of this forum.

I don´t know if there will be a bull market in near future. But I expect a lot of volatility. With the upcoming US elections. Timing the market is nonsense.

For the record. At the moment I´m only invested in physical gold.

And I haven´t added NUGT yet.

I would like to add more stocks. Which follow forum consensus.

(07-09-2016 08:51 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  ^^

There's nothing particularly unique or special about that portfolio. It's performing well because it's full of hybrid assets. This is a market environment where nearly all hybrid/defensive assets have been outperforming the index.

If the market starts breaking out and running up in a continuation bull market those hybrid assets could very well get crushed.

Post: #281

Hortonworks (Nasdaq:HDP)

One of the best hedge fund managers owns the biggest stake in this company (11.5%)

Big Data is one of the biggest trends and this company is on the front line of it.

It is currently trading at 10.75. I think it is going to go up drastically within 2 years time. Somewhere in the 60s.

Post: #282

Story folks im looking for some advice on my investibg situation.

Im just starting out and want to invest in simple index funds. Vanguard. Vtsax hopefully by many recommendations. The only issue I have is that im Irish but currently living and working in Canada. Will this be a problem? Am I able to invest in these funds through vanguard canada even though Im European?

I want to keep this as simple as possible, no brokers or anything. Just want to throw in 3k or so, set and forget sort of deal. Thanks

Post: #283

@alecks: No, no problem.

Post: #284

Update # 18

* Note - I had some nice descriptive charts attached, but forum posting isn't allowing me to post images from stock charts.com like I usually do.

Tried a few tricks but couldn't get them on my post.

I figured an update sans charts is better than none at all.

Here we go:
Haven't updated in a few weeks. I've been mostly in cash and after Brexit, went to 100%. In retrospect, I could have stayed in 2 of the stocks I owned and done fine, now the stocks are too extended to buy. CLW and WB. Hindsight's always 20/20. Having said that, after today's action, I'm on a buy stance ( meaning going to about 25% - 40% invested) An outright buy signal is imminent if this uptrend continues.


We rallied off the recent lows (after Brexit mini-crash) to that upside target. ( 2100 on the S&P which was broken today and 5000 on the Nasdaq, which was broken today, on Tuesday) :

On the SP 500, the low was tested at around 2000 on about the 27th then rallied strongly off of that low. Then, today, this index 'broke out' of the oft tested 2100 magic area:


Will it hold?

The nasdaq is broke the 5000 level today

Risk is getting less and its a better environment.

I wouldn't necessarily go berserker mode shotgun buying stocks, but depending on your analysis/MO of stock selection, I think it's a good time to make a list or start taking positions ( assuming you aren't already fully invested)

Brexit correction created a good shakeout. Which is good for scaring out weak hands.

As far as sentiment, there's good newst: Bullish sentiment is below 20 pct
Neutral sentiment is above 50%.

The last 4 times this happened was throughout 1988 and 1989 after the 87 crash. It’s a good contrary indication, meaning there's still alot of doubting Thomas' out there

In summary:

* Buy alert though not outright buy signal.
* S&P at new high
* Gold stocks leading ( extended and tough to buy new positions. If you own, I'd probably keep holding them)
* Negative rates or extremely low rates = flight to hard assets, ie. gold.
* US stocks are helped by 'flight to quality'
* The Fed won't raise rates in this precarious environment and there's also
no near term indications of a recession. I think a medium to long term bullish outlook on the market is the most realistic.

A few stocks that are in constructive bases I like:

DLTH:


OLLI:

Always adhere to stops and do your own research.

Post: #285

Looking to get into investing. What would you recommend for the beginner? I've just bought A Random Walk Down Wall Street and hope to read that this week. I don't have much financial background so I'm looking for a something that describes the basic nuts and bolts.

Post: #286

(07-12-2016 10:17 PM)Space Cowboy Wrote:  Looking to get into investing. What would you recommend for the beginner? I've just bought A Random Walk Down Wall Street and hope to read that this week. I don't have much financial background so I'm looking for a something that describes the basic nuts and bolts.

These tips are US-specific. Other countries have local differences and nuances, but the fundamental principles are the same. I am not a financial adviser, so use this at your own risk.

I assume you don't have any high interest debt outstanding (if you do, pay it off first). If it's a mortgage, or a subsidized low-interest student loan, you can still invest while paying it off.

Keep an emergency fund (e.g. 6 months of expenses, may be more or less depending on your job situation, etc.) either in checking or savings accounts which you can access easily. The rest of the money you can invest.

I would recommend "passive", hands-off approach to investing using Vanguard index funds which generally charge the lowest fees. Always pay special attention to management fees. The difference between a low fee of 0.05% (5 basis points) per year and 1% (100 basis points) is huge. It's like going to a grocery store and paying 20X the prices for food. Anything above 50 basis points is a rip off. Tell anybody who wants to charge above that to fuck off. Even 50bp is only acceptable if there is no other choice (e.g. your employer offers only expensive funds and matches your contributions).

Every year, max your tax advantaged accounts first: 401K, IRA and Roth IRA depending on income. There may be other equivalents for certain categories of employees (Government, schools), but these are the most common ones. If you still have money left, invest in taxable accounts with Vanugard. Also, if you have a high deductible health insurance plan, max your HSA which is basically another tax advantaged retirement account. Every dollar you save on taxes adds to your investment return and compounds going forward.

Do not try to time the market. Nobody knows where the market will go in the long term. However, on average, the S&P500 returns over the past few decades were above 7% per year. No guarantee they will be the same in the future, but statistically, passive approach to investing beats market timing and stock picking.

Decide on asset allocation. For example, 60% US Stocks (S&P500 index fund, VVO). 30% international stocks (VGTSX or ETF equivalent) and 10% REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust, VNQ). I do not include bonds in this example because I assume you are relatively young. Research https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ for asset allocation examples and back tested performance and comparisons.

If you have a lump sum you are looking to invest, statistically, investing the whole amount right away beats dollar cost averaging this amount over time. Both the approaches beat keeping it in cash (I wish I knew that before).

Additional resources to get you started:

Bogleheads.com - many, if not most forum members are in the two comma club. Probably the best investment forum out there.

Mr Money Mustache blog and forum - also a very good resource.

Portfolio Visualizer - great way to learn about back testing, monte carlo simulations, asset allocation and other investment topics.

Other good blogs: Mad Fientist, Go Curry Cracker.

Post: #287

(07-10-2016 10:23 AM)alecks Wrote:  Story folks im looking for some advice on my investibg situation.

Im just starting out and want to invest in simple index funds. Vanguard. Vtsax hopefully by many recommendations. The only issue I have is that im Irish but currently living and working in Canada. Will this be a problem? Am I able to invest in these funds through vanguard canada even though Im European?

I want to keep this as simple as possible, no brokers or anything. Just want to throw in 3k or so, set and forget sort of deal. Thanks

In addition to everything said you should check with an accountant which is your fiscal domicile at the moment. Since your investment has contact with three different tax systems: Canada, Ireland and US. And you should sort it out for not getting triple taxed on your investment.

If you are working in Canada you are probably tax liable in Canada only. The fact your european shouldn´t have much relevance here, unless you´ve not been living in Canada enough time to be considered fiscal domiciled. Then a double tax convention between Canada and US should apply.

Even if your fiscal domiciled in Canada do you plan on returning to Ireland? Irish tax system is probably more favorable for this type of investment.

Spend 100$ and consult an accountant or tax lawyer.

Post: #288

Short Turkey ETF´s and Lira!

Post: #289

Opened new longs UK bank stocks

BARC LN - 126.50 long 10k shares (27 June 2016)

LLOY LN - 56.79 long 20k shares (24 June 2016)

Post: #290

How do you guys determine the perfect price to buy and sell securities? Do you use some discounted cash flow models etc? if so, do you recommend a source to check out to learn more?

Post: #291

I piss into the wind while holding a 1 legged lotus pose and have Bohemian Rhapsody playing in the background as I read the financial post. If my piss doesn't hit me, it's a good stock to buy.

Seriously, valuation is an art not a science. Get your thesis about a security right 1st, then worry about the price.

Post: #292

Buy when they are cheap. They will be cheap after a crash. Buy then.

If you don´t want to wait for a crash. Think about it like a house. What´s the right price for a house?

It´s the price bellow average. If all the houses in a neighborhood have a gap price between 100k-150k then If there´s one house selling bellow 50k wouldn´t you buy it?

Same with stocks. Check any stock. And compare the price after a crash and current. See how much your paying more for the same stock.

Besides death and taxes I believe crashes and bubbles are also certainties of life.

Think about it like sales. For some reason you can buy the same clothing cheaper in some months of the year. Why? If you buy a shirt one day before sales you could end up paying more 50% for the same piece of clothing. Just because you didn´t wait one day. Crashes are sales of assets. As blunt as this may seem.

When will a crash happen? Nobody knows. But it will. That´s 100% guarantee.

I dislike brokers. And i´m studying Direct Purchase Plans for the next crash.

There´s a lot of theories. I resume in two words: Buy cheap. The end.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/graham-number.asp

Real estate is nevertheless the best way to create wealth. And stocks to accumulate wealth. You will only get richer in the stock market. Not rich.

There´s two fundamental strategies in stocks: Gamble or speculation and value investing.

Post: #293

I posted here a few months ago about $AMD, back when it was still $2.80ish. Anyone else get in on that?

Post: #294

Well, how do you determine if something is really cheap? This seems to limit investment to companies who have comps in the market. A lot of good small-cap stocks with great upside potential don't have true comparables, so it may be necessary to look for other metrics to determine value (like if it is selling below its net asset values, or along those lines). I wanted to see if anyone has any metrics they favor over others.

Or, do you just buy when something falls below its 52 day moving average? The problem I see with this is that we never really know whether a drop below a moving average is justified - do insiders know something we don't?

I am not looking for companies that have experienced growth, and then drops. I am looking for companies that are about to experience growth, because they are undervalued. Its been very difficult, so far.

Post: #295

(07-18-2016 12:41 PM)erikak Wrote:  I posted here a few months ago about $AMD, back when it was still $2.80ish. Anyone else get in on that?

Damn, nice one.

Post: #296

-10%= Correction
-20 %= Crash

Normally crashes implies a decline of 20%-30% or more of the stock market. When the stock market drops bellow 30% buy.

Buy after a crash, a decline of 30% or more of the stock market. It will go up.

Underlying value can only be measured if you have some sort of control of the company. To do that you will need to spend some serious cash. Any other option is gambling or criminal activity. Because there´s too many factors which can make a stock go up or down. What is proven repeatedly is after a crash stocks go up again. The only variable is how much time they take.

I´m no stocks guru. Just my 2 cents.

Post: #297

(07-18-2016 01:30 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  Buy after a crash, a decline of 30% or more of the stock market. It will go up.

I agree with this! It's what I'm currently doing. I'm no financial expert at all but look back to February, or last year with the Chinese scare, tons of stocks fell yet they always go back up. When the world panics and stocks drop 30%, that's the time to buy. I'm guessing there are guys out there with millions to play with who pretty much sustain themselves by doing this kind of thing?

Also, to me at least, investing in anything VR-related seemed obvious to me by mid 2015. I looked at AMD, looked at HTC and thought 'there's no way they aren't going up.'

In that area, NVDA might be the safest buy for the long term. I really can't see it not hitting $100 (eventually). It's an amazing company with incredible foresight and I don't think anyone (especially a clueless noob like myself) really understands how much VR is going to change things up down the road.

How about oil? It's low now, but India and China are pumping out cars like crazy. Even in SEA. I was living in Shenyang, China for 5 years, which has a BMW plant. Used to teach about 100 guys who worked there. They claimed they were making an unbelievable 500 cars per day for the domestic market. By 2030, there could be an unquenchable demand for oil, even despite an increased number of electric cars.

Question for anyone knowledgeable about this stuff: what about stocks that jump up 50-100% in a single day on news that company X will buy company Y, valued at $25 per share, at $50/share? The risk is low, so it's pretty much all about who gets the news first, right? I'm guessing there are people out there who use bots to dredge Google for the latest news and go in-all? Does that actually work? Or is insider trading still alive and well in 2016?

Post: #298

(07-18-2016 04:51 PM)erikak Wrote:  Question for anyone knowledgeable about this stuff: what about stocks that jump up 50-100% in a single day on news that company X will buy company Y, valued at $25 per share, at $50/share? The risk is low, so it's pretty much all about who gets the news first, right? I'm guessing there are people out there who use bots to dredge Google for the latest news and go in-all? Does that actually work? Or is insider trading still alive and well in 2016?

Nobody knows unless your a company insider. And then, it's illegal. Doesn't mean nobody does it, just that many people much more wealthy and powerful than you have been taken down by insider trading.

In this day and age, buyouts/acquisitions are usually done after hours and when the mkt opens its already priced in. No amount of google web scraping is gonna get you in 1st. You may be able to have HFT bots/algos running in after hours trading to scalp the news flow but if you already had that going brother, you wouldn't be posting on RVF.

Post: #299

(07-18-2016 01:08 PM)se7en Wrote:  Well, how do you determine if something is really cheap? This seems to limit investment to companies who have comps in the market. A lot of good small-cap stocks with great upside potential don't have true comparables, so it may be necessary to look for other metrics to determine value (like if it is selling below its net asset values, or along those lines). I wanted to see if anyone has any metrics they favor over others.

I am not looking for companies that have experienced growth, and then drops. I am looking for companies that are about to experience growth, because they are undervalued. Its been very difficult, so far.

The issue with the bolded above as you are looking for like say NFLX in 2010, VRX in 09, MSFT when it 1st came out is that no one KNEW. When I see a company trading at a P/E of 2, or is a net net I'm looking at present data. The data is just that, data. It could be fake or doctored but most times savvy investors will catch it. Nobody KNOWS on a forward basis whether a company will just explode and dominate/transform it's market as is what you are really aiming at with your thesis.

Your not looking at comps and DCFs then, you are looking at mkt share and growth. You'd be better served following large VCs and macro/societal/pop culture/tech trends than running valuation models.

Post: #300

(07-18-2016 01:30 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  -10%= Correction
-20 %= Crash

Normally crashes implies a decline of 20%-30% or more of the stock market. When the stock market drops bellow 30% buy.

Buy after a crash, a decline of 30% or more of the stock market. It will go up.

If you did this in 2000 you would have likely gotten wiped out. This is not good advice at all. Even if you're "sure" about an individual stock's performance it's better to diversify into a basket of stocks from multiple sectors.

However, if you're going to go this route it would be much safer to buy the index during and after a major bear market. I pretty much stuffed all my cash into the index in late 2010 with minimal allocation to bonds and just rode the bull market up until recently.

You'll probably still catch the tail end of a falling knife doing it this way but at least the chances of recovery are much higher over the long term.