Post: #501

No kidding. Once you commit to a coup, you go all the way. I never understand why they don't just mow over protestors when they're in the tank. The people blocking your way are the same people who will execute you in the morning.

Post: #502

(07-16-2016 10:52 AM)Mike5055 Wrote:  Anyone know SOP for a US military base holding nukes that's about to fall to the enemy?

Not saying this is the case in Turkey, just curious.

I have no idea about the actual protocols, but I suspect that they're stored in such a manner that they can be destroyed with high explosives, or slagged with thermite, or what-have-you.

Post: #503

(07-16-2016 11:17 AM)Enigma Wrote:  I just don't understand the perspective of the average pro-coup soldier.

You decide to support a coup. You have guns and tanks and helicopters. You fight for like 12 hours or less. You and dozens of your fellow soldiers surrender to civilians with no guns to be tortured and executed in some shithole Turkish prison.

It makes no sense to me.

There's a random pic I saw earlier with lack 20 uniformed soldiers huddled in the middle of the street while some random guy hits them with a belt.

Why?

Again, this smacks of a fake coup.

The grunts get a stirring speech from their commander and take to the streets. Hours later no further orders have arrived. They sit there wondering WTF is going on.

Eventually they realise they've been played for fools and the put their weapons down, hoping that they will be spared the worst of the punishment, since they're only bit players.

Post: #504

(07-16-2016 11:36 AM)Mike5055 Wrote:  No kidding. Once you commit to a coup, you go all the way. I never understand why they don't just mow over protestors when they're in the tank. The people blocking your way are the same people who will execute you in the morning.

I would say two reasons.


First, the coup will not get a lot of support from the population if you start shooting at civilians at random. You want to capture their hearts and minds.

And second, it is not easy to shoot at your compatriots. For example, shortly before the war in Syria began, the military was ordered to shoot at protestors. Many refused, and defected. Imagine what would happen in the US if the Army is given orders to shoot civilians.

EDIT

Also, the conscripts likely had no clue what the fuck is going on. When they eventually realized, they dropped their weapons, like Leonard said.

Post: #505

You succeed in your coup first, then you capture the hearts and minds.

Post: #506

(07-16-2016 11:45 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 11:17 AM)Enigma Wrote:  I just don't understand the perspective of the average pro-coup soldier.

You decide to support a coup. You have guns and tanks and helicopters. You fight for like 12 hours or less. You and dozens of your fellow soldiers surrender to civilians with no guns to be tortured and executed in some shithole Turkish prison.

It makes no sense to me.

There's a random pic I saw earlier with lack 20 uniformed soldiers huddled in the middle of the street while some random guy hits them with a belt.

Why?

Again, this smacks of a fake coup.

The grunts get a stirring speech from their commander and take to the streets. Hours later no further orders have arrived. They sit there wondering WTF is going on.

Eventually they realise they've been played for fools and the put their weapons down, hoping that they will be spared the worst of the punishment, since they're only bit players.

Interesting observation, Leonard.

Funny you should mention that. I have a reader in Turkey whom I was trying to contact last night to get on-the-spot updates. He finally emailed me this morning saying that he believed that this was partly a sham-coup. He believed that Erdogan may have been tipped off beforehand, and that he let it proceed in order to grab more power and make himself the Sultan he always wanted to be.

I'm not sure I agree with this theory (at least at this point), but it's still something to think about.

Post: #507

(07-16-2016 12:10 PM)Quintus Curtius Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 11:45 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 11:17 AM)Enigma Wrote:  I just don't understand the perspective of the average pro-coup soldier.

You decide to support a coup. You have guns and tanks and helicopters. You fight for like 12 hours or less. You and dozens of your fellow soldiers surrender to civilians with no guns to be tortured and executed in some shithole Turkish prison.

It makes no sense to me.

There's a random pic I saw earlier with lack 20 uniformed soldiers huddled in the middle of the street while some random guy hits them with a belt.

Why?

Again, this smacks of a fake coup.

The grunts get a stirring speech from their commander and take to the streets. Hours later no further orders have arrived. They sit there wondering WTF is going on.

Eventually they realise they've been played for fools and the put their weapons down, hoping that they will be spared the worst of the punishment, since they're only bit players.

Interesting observation, Leonard.

Funny you should mention that. I have a reader in Turkey whom I was trying to contact last night to get on-the-spot updates. He finally emailed me this morning saying that he believed that this was partly a sham-coup. He believed that Erdogan may have been tipped off beforehand, and that he let it proceed in order to grab more power and make himself the Sultan he always wanted to be.

I'm not sure I agree with this theory (at least at this point), but it's still something to think about.

Regardless of whether or not it was a false-flag or not, the effects of this coup will be to fully dismantle the safeguards Ataturk put in place to ensure a secular regime in Turkey after WW1.

All the pro-coup, pro-secular forces will be rounded up and imprisoned or killed, which further cements the degeneration of Turkey into an Islamic state because the demographics began shifting decades ago.

Fact is, Secularists don't have as many kids as Islamists. They lost the election in 2002 because they were outbred back in 70's.

The only reason the Secularists came to power in Turkey was because the Ottoman Empire sent millions of men to die in WW1, and after that there weren't enough Islamic enforcers to maintain an Islamic state in Turkey. In this power vacuum Ataturk and his Secularism was able to take power.

But in the 100 years since, the Muslims have been busy reproducing like crazy and now they are in the majority again. Without any more Secular forces within the military to enforce Ataturk's Secularism, Turkey can now make the transition to a full Islamic state unopposed.

The problem for Erdogan is that he thinks he can ride Islam to stay in power, when in reality ISIS is going to take over the country at some point and Erdogan will be "retired" or disposed of.

Post: #508

^^^

Yeah, he's definitely not going to be in a compromising mood at this point. That's for sure. He's going to take full advantage of the situation to make himself the autocrat Sultan he always wanted to be.

But I do think that Russia, Iran, Syria, and Iraq can still contain him. And he still wants Europe's good favor, so he can't go 100% Mohammad Morsi. At least not yet, anyway.

Post: #509

   

Post: #510

(07-16-2016 12:21 PM)Samseau Wrote:  The problem for Erdogan is that he thinks he can ride Islam to stay in power, when in reality ISIS is going to take over the country at some point and Erdogan will be "retired" or disposed of.

How do you think ISIS will seize power?

Post: #511

Good analysis about the possibility of a false flag here

Either way Erdogan is going full sharia now. I believe this will usher the age of a new caliphate united behind Turkey. A lot of pieces are starting to fit with the end of times prophecy in which the anti-christ emerges from Turkey. If you guys are interested read this article from back in November about the possibility of Erodgan being the "prince".

Post: #512

(07-16-2016 01:06 PM)DarianFrey Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 12:21 PM)Samseau Wrote:  The problem for Erdogan is that he thinks he can ride Islam to stay in power, when in reality ISIS is going to take over the country at some point and Erdogan will be "retired" or disposed of.

How do you think ISIS will seize power?

ISIS calls itself a caliphate, which means different zones of the caliphate each have regional leaders. So a self-styled Turkish ISIS leader will eventually come to power (unless ISIS is crushed) and kill all who oppose them.

Post: #513

(07-16-2016 01:28 PM)syrianguy Wrote:  Good analysis about the possibility of a false flag here

Either way Erdogan is going full sharia now. I believe this will usher the age of a new caliphate united behind Turkey. A lot of pieces are starting to fit with the end of times prophecy in which the anti-christ emerges from Turkey. If you guys are interested read this article from back in November about the possibility of Erodgan being the "prince".

Thanks for linking Walid Shoebat, I was going to link him here myself. After reading the various in depth commentaries of Walid, taking into consideration his knowledge of Biblical and extra - Biblical sources, his experience as a Islamic terrorist before he became a Christian and vast knowledge of the history and geopolitics, I personally can say he is a modern prophet of our time.

His predictions/ analysis of Ergodan trying to revive the Ottoman Empire and make himself Sultan of that Caliphate seems to be going full charge ahead.

I just hope and pray that the Christians in the Middle East and surrounding area are prepared for even more persecution. I also hope and pray that there are righteous nations who rise up, hopefully in the form of USA with Trump and Russia.

Post: #514

The 48 Laws of Successful Coups

#1 : Complete the fuckin' coup!

Post: #515

Yeah this stinks to high heaven. Erdogan is going to have dictatorship level powers now.

Post: #516

There are quite a few reports coming out that there is evidence of the US using refuelling planes to refuel coup flown f-16s mid flight.

Could all be coming from the same source though.

Post: #517

(07-16-2016 02:41 PM)kaotic Wrote:  Yeah this stinks to high heaven. Erdogan is going to have dictatorship level powers now.

Perhaps that was the goal all along. The Turkish military knows how to pull off a coup. Yet this time they managed to fuck it up. Like I said last night, you've got military fighter jets flying around at the same time Erdogan's plane was on it's final approach. The planes are buzzing the roofs of the buildings, while he's safely reentering the country. How long does it take for a F-16 to get from Ankara to Istanbul at full afterburner? A few minutes at most. They had military air traffic control, and they likely knew which plane was his as it approached. He could have easily been taken out. And they'd be airing a different story today. That failure to properly employ resources isn't incompetence, it's looking like it was planned that way.

I think it was a ploy for a Erdogan power grab. He'll replace his experienced and secular military commanders with political cronies who share his same ideology. Coup threat resolved. Turkey continues down the path of further radicalism and Merkel, Clinton, and all the rest congratulate each other on their humanitarian efforts.

Post: #518

I normally dismiss false flag reports, as they often don't make any sense. This case is different. The whole thing is so logically inconsistent, that I give strong credence to the idea that this was just a loyalist power grab.

Easy enough for loyalist forces to suggest a revolt to suspected troublemakers within the military. Basically, Erdogan up faked the basketball, got the rebel forces in the in the air while he was still on the ground, then leaned in and drew the foul.

Make yourself look like the victim, purge your opposition, and consolidate power.

Post: #519

(07-15-2016 06:15 PM)SunW Wrote:  He claims its failing - https://twitter.com/harikunzru/status/75...268217856, if anyone believes this guys "sources." A more likely scenario is this is a false flag op to give Ergoden more power.

"‘Gift from God’: Erdogan sees coup as ‘chance to cleanse military’ while PM mulls death penalty" (https://www.rt.com/news/351630-erdogan-t...tionships/)

Post: #520

A few things jump out

1. The Army didn't give justification for their Coup. I know they are supposed to be effective counter balance to islamization but still citing bylaws and other pieces of legislation gives it so much more credibility domestically and globally. That's weird.

2. What was the attempt on Erogdan's life or capture? A bomb went off in a hotel..thats it.

3. He is in a small leer jet circling the ocean. You mean to tell me there wasn't one boat with AA guns. There wasn't one jet or helicopter with missiles capable of taking out this undefended commercial jet. THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF MANPADS floating around Syria. If you're army, you wouldn't have any at the ready?

4. It looks like the coup only went hot for a few hours. The timeline I'm inferring is A. We are declaring a coup. B. Citizens "What?" C. Gov't "Fuck" D. Coup "Shut up, we will kill you" E. Gov't "No you won't. Citizens, flood the streets." F Coup "Ok, you called our bluff. Theres really only 4,000 of us and the police with their handguns and AK's scare us" G. Gov't "Yes, respect my authority" H. The end.

Its strange.

Although, is Samseau is right, I guess its a good thing. Having an overt islam strong hold in NATO and applying for EU membership is a bad look. PR wise, no country will be on board except for 2020 Muslim ruled France.

Post: #521

This is one thing I've learned from the members of this forum: who gains from a major event? There is always a possibility that the person or organization who gains is the person or organization orchestrating the event, or is aware of the event and will exploit it to his or their advantage. Always the case? No. Always a possibility. Yes.

Post: #522

It's becoming more evident.

That a coup rose & fell.

So another more secretive & sinister coup could be enacted.

Brilliant.

Post: #523

(07-16-2016 01:06 PM)DarianFrey Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 12:21 PM)Samseau Wrote:  The problem for Erdogan is that he thinks he can ride Islam to stay in power, when in reality ISIS is going to take over the country at some point and Erdogan will be "retired" or disposed of.

How do you think ISIS will seize power?

ISIS is a patched up bunch of foreign mercenaries, muslim psychos and useful idiots. The only area where they have organic support is in Iraq with the sunnis there, because that group, from which Saddam drew his regime, has been violently suppressed since the Gulf War, attacked from all directions (US, Iraqi regime, Kurds) and left with few resources. ISIS came to them with funding and weapons, so their Baath/insurgent leadership, which had come together in US prison camps like Bucca, joined in.

In Syria though, it's a different situation, with ISIS consisting mostly of foreigners and mercenaries from Libya, Chechnya, Gulf countries, western jihadis etc. Even devout muslim Syrians resent them, as they are perceived as tools of foreign agendas with dubious theology.

ISIS in Syria would fold like a cheap tent if their foreign funding ended. The NATO bombing campaigns have been ineffective by design, they would blow up the occasional building while there are parallel supply drops and trade lines set up to keep them going.

Most of the land in Syria east of the coastal mountain range is open land, arid plains that are quite vulnerable to aerial assault, yet those bearded retards are out there parading in their spotless tanks and camo pickups month after month, after month. A Warthog squadron could take them out in one week, or at the very least cut off their supply lines. Putin took out their entire tanker truck fleet in a couple of days. Makes you wonder why NATO (with better planes and local logistics) didn't do that earlier...

The locals in Syria just aren't into wahabbi death cults, and the Turks even less so. Their conservative orthodox sunnis aren't cut from the same cloth as the Saudis. It's like comparing devout Mormons or hardcore bible belt Evangelicals with conservative Catholics from MA. And Turks are a very nationalistic people, one of the most nationalistic people on earth actually. So to say that ISIS is somehow going to take over Turkey is totally unrealistic.

Post: #524

The Turkish military is the most incompetent military I've ever worked with, so this could easily be just them screwing up, versus Erdogan being a mastermind.

Post: #525

Couple of considerations to make:

- Who supports what ? For now, Iran, Hamas, and apparently West are backing Erdogan. Only support of Hamas seems sincere. Nobody embraced those who plotted the coup, apart from secular Turks which were through history sometimes pro-western, sometimes nationalist sentiment.

- Who profits from coup ? It seems unclear, but suggestions are the west would, since it would be in strong bargaining position with new illegitimate government, particularly the EU.

- Who profits from Erdogan in power ? It seems rather unclear. Apart from small middle-eastern Islamist factions that he endorsed. In the long run, the only one who can profit from turmoil in the region is as usual, Israel. If there is a war that is brewing in the region, than it is surely the war between West and Islam. And that is a fulfillment of all Israeli dreams - that their most hated enemies, Europeans, die in great numbers while reducing the number of their most immediate enemies - Muslims.

Also, apparently Russia made a deal with Erdogan prior to coup where much of it was at stake, but Erdogan has proven so far that he is completely unreliable opportunist, so any shift is possible. This Erdogan dude has one quality that other leaders lack - direct experience. He came to power with democracy, without democracy, through offices and through streets, he survived coup, war, terrorism, treason, danger of imminent war with Russia, Syria and Israel in the past. And he only seems to be climbing in his amount of overall power in Turkey. In fact he became emboldened, and only confirmation bias in our dislike of his, can make us claim "well, that will surely lead to his downfall". Not necessarily.

And he surely rides on the wave of strong Turkish demographic trends, just like Iran. In fact, Erdogan could be emulating Iran's politics.