Post: #201

(05-15-2018 09:04 AM)Dvorak Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 08:17 AM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  I just want to say, I called this shit.

/thread-65542.html

To those that listened, your welcome.
To those that didn't, lesson learned.

Now that craze has phased out, I am actually going to start looking into investing in some coin.

You are correct that a crash has happened since then.

But comparing Bitcoin prices then (1st of Nov) to now, BTC has risen more than 25%... I suspect that most altcoins had even higher profits...

PolymathGuru, stay in your lane bro. You didn't call shit. The markets are up since your post. Now you are looking to buy? You would have been better off doing that on the date of your warning post, rather than now.

Post: #202

Bitcoin price: $6600

Random dude screams "Don't buy bitcoin!"

Six months later, Bitcoin price: $8600

Random dude screams "See, I told you not to buy bitcoin back then. Now buy bitcoin!"

Weird.

Post: #203

(05-15-2018 09:30 AM)zoom Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 09:04 AM)Dvorak Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 08:17 AM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  I just want to say, I called this shit.

/thread-65542.html

To those that listened, your welcome.
To those that didn't, lesson learned.

Now that craze has phased out, I am actually going to start looking into investing in some coin.

You are correct that a crash has happened since then.

But comparing Bitcoin prices then (1st of Nov) to now, BTC has risen more than 25%... I suspect that most altcoins had even higher profits...

PolymathGuru, stay in your lane bro. You didn't call shit. The markets are up since your post. Now you are looking to buy? You would have been better off doing that on the date of your warning post, rather than now.

Eat it and weep.

(12-02-2017 11:35 AM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  

(11-27-2017 04:49 AM)Razor Beast Wrote:  Like the mania of the tech bubble in the late 1990's, if you truly believe in crypto long term, your best time to invest is after the inevitable huge crash. Wait for the dust to settle from this bubble and see what new cryptos emerge and make leaps forward in the years ahead. This has turned into a mania now that will meet an unfortunate end. And that unfortunate end will include a historic crash and subsequent strict regulation of cryptocurrencies for them to remain legal, which takes away a lot of the appeal of cryptocurrencies to begin with

I'd strongly advise anyone to take profits in your crypto at this point because no matter how good your under the radar crypto may be, it will be dragged down when the hammer drops on bitcoin. Ethereum went from hundreds of dollars to a couple dollars in minutes earlier this year. The liquidity evaporates once there is any serious selling pressure. Once this market turns exchanges will crash and you will be locked out unable to sell. For those staying in best of luck, if you are in the right cryptos it may work out for you decades from now but you will need to be able to endure an incredible amount of pain and lots of sleepless nights to get to the finish line. Especially when nationalized cryptos are rolled out as "the solution" to the regulatory problem of the current crypto system in wake of the carnage.

Don't say you weren't warned!

I believe cryptocurrencies will do well in the long run. But I do believe it is in a bubble. I am seeing more of the psychological craze picking up around me with more people becoming familiar with the returns of cryptocurrencies. I expect this stuff to crash in some time around 2018.

Anyone familiar with finance understands it isn't a high precision science for predictability. You can see patterns but not make pinpoint predictions. The fact that most finance models depend on statistics should tell you that.

Keep in mind, in the height of the bubble, the price was $19,770. Right now it is $8600. That is a ROI of -56%. You could have easily lost more than half of your total investment.

On November 1s the price was $6600, On November 25th, the price of bitcoin was $8637. You are going to tell me you had a reasonable explanation for a 25% growth starting at November 1st until November 25th? No reasonable person who say my prediction of a bubble was wrong. No one would have knew where the price would settle after the bubble had burst. It could have been easily worst.

Now that prices have stabilized, it is reasonable to start buying bitcoin.

Post: #204

As long as BTC has not dropped past 7450 support. It will go on to a bull run again in my opinion.

Post: #205

Polymath, you clearly hedged your bets both ways by saying it would do well long-term but crash in 2018. Your original post was casting doubt on crypto, then later you moved the goal post to it doing well in the long term. It's all meaningless statements without more precise dates and figures. Bitcoin and the crypto market's volatility is a feature we are all aware of.

Post: #206

(05-15-2018 01:56 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Polymath, you clearly hedged your bets both ways by saying it would do well long-term but crash in 2018. Your original post was casting doubt on crypto, then later you moved the goal post to it doing well in the long term. It's all meaningless statements without more precise dates and figures. Bitcoin and the crypto market's volatility is a feature we are all aware of.

No I didn't. Scale of time matters a great deal. Long run I am bullish, short run I was bearish. Whenever someone discusses a bubble, it is always discussing a short run phenomenon. No one discusses bubbles as something happening in 5 or 10 years. They occur in less than 2 years periods with very rapid rates of growth.

The problem is when the bubble pops. You have no idea how far it can bottom out.

What you guys are asking of me is unreasonable. If I could do what is being asked, I wouldn't be on RVF. Instead, I would be in New York, wealthier than the top 5 richest people in the world combined, having a 100% monopoly on the financial markets.

Post: #207

(05-15-2018 08:17 AM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  I just want to say, I called this shit.

/thread-65542.html

To those that listened, your welcome.

To those that didn't, lesson learned.

Now that craze has phased out, I am actually going to start looking into investing in some coin.

If you're so confident go short XBTUSD on BitMEX.com with 100x leverage Mr. Smarty Pants Guru

Post: #208

(05-15-2018 03:05 PM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 01:56 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Polymath, you clearly hedged your bets both ways by saying it would do well long-term but crash in 2018. Your original post was casting doubt on crypto, then later you moved the goal post to it doing well in the long term. It's all meaningless statements without more precise dates and figures. Bitcoin and the crypto market's volatility is a feature we are all aware of.

No I didn't. Scale of time matters a great deal. Long run I am bullish, short run I was bearish. Whenever someone discusses a bubble, it is always discussing a short run phenomenon. No one discusses bubbles as something happening in 5 or 10 years. They occur in less than 2 years periods with very rapid rates of growth.

The problem is when the bubble pops. You have no idea how far it can bottom out.

What you guys are asking of me is unreasonable. If I could do what is being asked, I wouldn't be on RVF. Instead, I would be in New York, wealthier than the top 5 richest people in the world combined, having a 100% monopoly on the financial markets.

Likely if you took a bit of humble pie, then you would not be beat up so much. Sure, there are other guys who are guilty of the same thing, but you are the one, in this instance, attempting to assert that you "called it," even though you did not specify your claim with long term and short term assertions, at that time.

Furthermore, you seem like a bit of a wiffle waffler, when you make a large number of negative assertions about crypto fundamentals, and then a few months later, you proclaim to be investing in crypto.

Also, you lump together cryptos, and you fail and refuse to differentiate various fundamentals. For example, bitcoin spiked in price around mid-December; however, several alts spiked in price after bitcoin. Short term, you have considerable difficulties proclaiming to be correct, when there were a lot of coins that performed a 3x or greater price appreciation in the months following your proclamation - which could have caused a lot of opportunities for buying and selling that would have been lost based on your blanket recommendations to "stay out."

Finally, some of the coins have dropped down close to or even a bit below their prices on November 1, 2017 - however, there are a lot of coins that have not even broken below such bottom. BTC, for example, had a price of around $6.5k on November 1, but had gone up to $7500 within a few days of that, and within that week dropped back down to $5,500 before it began its exponential and quick growth up to $19,666, which took about a month to play out.

Likely a bit of humble pie remains in order for you because you seem to be retroactively attempting to proclaim a kind of deity status that is truly not deserved, and seemingly less deserved when you engage reframing history to brag about it.

Post: #209

(05-15-2018 03:05 PM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 01:56 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Polymath, you clearly hedged your bets both ways by saying it would do well long-term but crash in 2018. Your original post was casting doubt on crypto, then later you moved the goal post to it doing well in the long term. It's all meaningless statements without more precise dates and figures. Bitcoin and the crypto market's volatility is a feature we are all aware of.

No I didn't. Scale of time matters a great deal. Long run I am bullish, short run I was bearish. Whenever someone discusses a bubble, it is always discussing a short run phenomenon. No one discusses bubbles as something happening in 5 or 10 years. They occur in less than 2 years periods with very rapid rates of growth.

The problem is when the bubble pops. You have no idea how far it can bottom out.

What you guys are asking of me is unreasonable. If I could do what is being asked, I wouldn't be on RVF. Instead, I would be in New York, wealthier than the top 5 richest people in the world combined, having a 100% monopoly on the financial markets.

If you take the dot-com as an example. Even after the dot-com crash happened, the market manages to recover tho. Short run you were bearish as in- now you're bullish long-term and short-term?

Post: #210

(05-15-2018 11:40 AM)yaku Wrote:  Bitcoin price: $6600

Random dude screams "Don't buy bitcoin!"

Six months later, Bitcoin price: $8600

Random dude screams "See, I told you not to buy bitcoin back then. Now buy bitcoin!"

Weird.

https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

As of 5th May 2018 Bitcoin has died 298 times.

Post: #211

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/17/the-b...and-study/

Depressing.

Post: #212

(05-17-2018 05:48 PM)Road_Less_Taken Wrote:  https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/17/the-b...and-study/

Depressing.

You can stick to fiat, if you're too depressed about "muh electricity"

Post: #213

(05-17-2018 05:49 PM)redbeard Wrote:  

(05-17-2018 05:48 PM)Road_Less_Taken Wrote:  https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/17/the-b...and-study/

Depressing.

You can stick to fiat, if you're too depressed about "muh electricity"

hahahahha

Yeah, right... as if we are supposed to get all worked up about this nonsense talking point in a decentralized system that allows for mining based on incentives.

I am surely not losing any sleep over the electricity consumption matter, except to see how the subject matter is used in various SJW sympathetic arguments that largely distract from other more important points (such as attempting to understand the actual power of proof of work that is provided through decentralized mining) and spreading of FUD, at least when it comes to this bitcoin electricity consumption subject matter.

Post: #214

Most of the nu-males getting into crytpo got in because of gainz and they became part of Ethereum fan base which is soon going to go Proof of stake and leave mining. Unlike the libertarians that went into Bitcoin for principled reasons these new guys want the lambo at any cost.

Post: #215

To be honest the thing with Bitcoin makes me sad sometimes, I didn’t take such trends seriously as I read about their humble beginnings around the year 2009, at that time anyone who’s anyone could have bought some of this coin and made big gains by now, but I don’t know if the same would happen with the other coins emerging lately.

Post: #216

(05-19-2018 05:55 PM)LuckyBird Wrote:  To be honest the thing with Bitcoin makes me sad sometimes, I didn’t take such trends seriously as I read about their humble beginnings around the year 2009, at that time anyone who’s anyone could have bought some of this coin and made big gains by now, but I don’t know if the same would happen with the other coins emerging lately.

Bitcoin remains bitcoin, and if you are buying into the story line that other coins are going to become like bitcoin, then seems to me that you have decent tendencies to be taken for a ride.

In other words, bitcoin retains its fundamental values as it did in 2009, and its mere increase in price does not signify that it is not going to be able to continue to appreciate in value or that some other bitcoin imitation is going to have more value, merely because it has a lower market cap and able to be pumped more easily based on that snake oils salesman concepts of proclamations that are not necessarily going to play out.

To burneremail's point that seems to be asserting that Ethereum has some kind of greater value because it is moving to proof of stake, which is supposedly some kind of more sustainable system instead of being a ponzi scheme that seems more designed to give some pump to peeps who hold the coin before the pump and before the movement to proof of stake, which may or may not work out so well to their favor... hahahahhahhaha Vitalik and some of the other ethereum pumpers have been talking a BIG game about imminently moving to proof of stake for a couple of years now, and in recent times, they are seeming a bit afraid to go beyond their pie in the sky proclamations and to actually pull the POS hardfork trigger - because they have bitmain and some other ETC pumpers in the wings who might cause some considerable disruption to any kind of semblance of stability that remains in their scam token pumping (and creation) platform. Good luck with all of that in the various bets that you are making in any direction of those quasi-centralized systems that are proclaiming to be better than bitcoin in terms of actual fundamentals rather than mere hopes of being on the right side of the hyped up pump and dump.

In other words, even if you are thinking that it might be too late to get into bitcoin because it has pumped so much and even that you are concerned about further bitcoin price crashing, you can still devise a bitcoin buying plan that allows you to incrementally continue to invest into bitcoin, which also has decent chances (based in part on already have taken place price drops in bitcoin) to pay off in the long term as an investment, especially relative to any other long term places that you might hedge some of your money, even if your bitcoin portion only adds up to a modest 1-2% of the value of your total investment portfolio.

Ultimately guys need to figure out for themselves what has value and what has legs for continued future adoption, and to keep in mind that there are some quasi-natural up and down price movements, including in BTC - but also that the level of adoption of bitcoin continues to be in very very early stages, which much less than 1% of world-wide adoption, and even though level of adoption remains difficult to measure, it is likely that in spite of the seeming LARGE growth of bitcoin and bitcoin awareness in the past 4-5 years, bitcoin's level of adoption is still likely below .5% of world-wide adoption... so consider that, too.

Post: #217

(05-19-2018 05:55 PM)LuckyBird Wrote:  To be honest the thing with Bitcoin makes me sad sometimes, I didn’t take such trends seriously as I read about their humble beginnings around the year 2009, at that time anyone who’s anyone could have bought some of this coin and made big gains by now, but I don’t know if the same would happen with the other coins emerging lately.

You also could have bought a load and lost it all through Mt Gox!

Post: #218

(05-22-2018 12:10 PM)Matt3B Wrote:  

(05-19-2018 05:55 PM)LuckyBird Wrote:  To be honest the thing with Bitcoin makes me sad sometimes, I didn’t take such trends seriously as I read about their humble beginnings around the year 2009, at that time anyone who’s anyone could have bought some of this coin and made big gains by now, but I don’t know if the same would happen with the other coins emerging lately.

You also could have bought a load and lost it all through Mt Gox!

Yes... in the past and continuing, MTGOX .. seems to serve as another overhyped phenomenon, even while the level of their stealing/losing coins that culminated in their closing shop in early 2014 is likely the highest single heist event in the bitcoin space.

Any guy who puts money into one location such as MTGOX or any other single exchange or buys all of their knowingly volatile assets, such as their bitcoins, at one price point without paying attention to what is happening with it, might be in the practice of gambling, engaging in undue risk and really not interacting with his investment.

So, the scenario of buying a volatile asset, such as bitcoin, and sitting on it for several years does not seem to be a very plausible scenario, even though there are some folks who did such.. including buying a few hundred dollars worth, and then a few years later, finding out that their "investment", if we would call it that, had appreciated to several million or even several hundred million.. Stranger things may have happened, but we do run accross some of these "forgot about my investment" scenarios in bitcoin.

Before 2017, I used to get a lot of misleading patronizing lecturing shit talk from guys who would try to describe my investment into bitcoin approach as dumb for my having had begun to buy BTC at near the top of the late 2013 price rise; therefore, my first purchase of bitcoin was 1.24BTC at $1,200, which was $1,500.

I did not make a single BTC purchase. I did not buy my 1.24BTC and sit on it. I did not change my mind about my BTC purchase and panic sell. I considered my November 2013 BTC purchase as a long term investment that I was willing to lose in the event that if matters did not play out favorably. In my case, it took more than 3 years for that particular bitcoin purchase of 1.24BTC to come out of the red and get into the black.. hahahahahah... from November 2013 to March 2017. Even when BTC prices surpassed $1,200 in early 2017, there was a lot of FUD spreading (even from credible sources), asserting that the price would not hold and we would be back into the $500 price territories.

As I mentioned, I got into bitcoin with a strategy that was not to just sit on the investment and to wait out the situation because even in late 2013, I already knew the then scenario of a recent price pump and even looking back, I could see that during the 2013 calendar year, BTC prices had gone up in nearly 80x from $15 to $1,163. Therefore, my buying into it (aka investment) approach was not single purchase, but instead a plan.

So, one thing is to make an initial investment into some asset such as bitcoin, but another thing is to decide whether the kind of investment, such as bitcoin, needs to have an active approach, or you can just sit on your investment whether you are going to accumulate assets or just get in and out, or attempt to maintain and hold.

Personally, I believe that it would be a pretty rare scenario for any quasi-thinking guy to just buy some bitcoin, to put them on an exchange like MTGOX and just leave them and to sit on them (even though there are some historical examples of that happening, too).

Since its inception (and at least into 2013 when bitcoin became a bit more widely known), bitcoin had already been a decently volatile ride, and even though folks like to predict BTC prices as up and down and even in terms of adoption and development and likelihood of success, the most probable of predictions continues to be ongoing price battles, political battles and ongoing volatility, so even if you might tentatively conclude that BTC is at a "stable" price place right now, reaching such conclusion would likely be premature, because the price battle seems to be ongoing, and both up and down (and even violent), at least in the short term, seems to continue to have decent odds.

Post: #219

(05-15-2018 12:46 PM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  Now that prices have stabilized, it is reasonable to start buying bitcoin.

Down almost 10% since you wrote this.

You seem to be snakebit as far as your predictions are going.

Post: #220

(05-22-2018 09:20 PM)yaku Wrote:  

(05-15-2018 12:46 PM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  Now that prices have stabilized, it is reasonable to start buying bitcoin.

Down almost 10% since you wrote this.

You seem to be snakebit as far as your predictions are going.

In recent times, it seems that RVF guys have become a bit less aggressive in their various negative bitcoin predictions, as compared with last year and even earlier than that.

It seems that the most recent BTC price surge from $3k-ish to $19k between August and December took a lot of steam out of the negative assertiveness of a good deal of guys.

Surely other coins are pumping too, and surely some guys are doing better by having a portfolio in other coins rather than sticking to a mostly bitcoin focus, so there can certainly be some individual variance.

Of course, when BTC prices had gone from $3k to $19k, there were going to be BTC is a bubble assertions, such as this the assertion of the OP of this thread, that end up seeming to be correct, but also decently sized corrections have already taken place from December to present to bring BTC down to $5,920 in early February and then $6,440 in early April.

Price downtrends can take a while to happen, so it remains unclear whether this particular BTC price downtrend is over yet or if it is going to continue, and whether PolymathGuru's "buy" suggestion from May 14 seems prudent.

Personally, if I was just getting into bitcoin, I think that developing a BTC buy strategy now, and accumulating bitcoin now, would not be a bad starting point, and surely, I think that the odds are a bit against any guy that would be waiting for BTC prices below $6k, even though that is possible, too, and even waiting for BTC prices to continue to drop from here might not be to be a very prudent approach for anyone who has no stake in BTC.

On the other hand, I tend to be a bit of a broken record in my seemingly ongoing suggestions that the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, and the second best time to buy bitcoin is today... .hahahahahhahaaha..

but still no matter when you start to buy BTC, you need to tailor an approach that works for you and your budget, timeline and circumstances, so even if you had begun to buy in the about $8,350 to $8,900 price range (as the price had been fluctuating on the day of PolymahtGuru's post), you would not have been in a bad time to get started in bitcoin, so long as you continued to figure out an individualized strategy that might include buying as the BTC price goes down (or buying on price dips, as some might describe it).

Post: #221

I can make a case from a chart perspective of Bitcoin going down to around $1,000 which is the origin of the parabolic move up. I usually see (on much smaller scales) price always moving back towards its origin after a big swing up.

Of course there are many other fundamental factors at play, but there's no denying the downward momentum. We've tested key resistance levels only once ($8,900, $10,000 and $11,000) and have had very big rejections from each of them. We've had no strength to even test deep into those levels and have only been at them for a very short period of time. The next big key resistance is at the $13,000 mark and we've not even got close to testing that yet.

If we get down to $1,000 though I'm throwing everything I own at Bitcoin. I won't really but you know what I mean.

Post: #222

(05-23-2018 07:54 AM)Matt3B Wrote:  I can make a case from a chart perspective of Bitcoin going down to around $1,000 which is the origin of the parabolic move up. I usually see (on much smaller scales) price always moving back towards its origin after a big swing up.

Of course there are many other fundamental factors at play, but there's no denying the downward momentum. We've tested key resistance levels only once ($8,900, $10,000 and $11,000) and have had very big rejections from each of them. We've had no strength to even test deep into those levels and have only been at them for a very short period of time. The next big key resistance is at the $13,000 mark and we've not even got close to testing that yet.

If we get down to $1,000 though I'm throwing everything I own at Bitcoin. I won't really but you know what I mean.

As you know, the current direction, of the past weeks is down, and seemingly accelerating in the past days, so discussion of upwards resistance seems less relevant at the moment.

On the way down, if you are only taking action at $1k, then you might be waiting a long, long time, no, and perhaps locked out of the buying game?

I anticipate that there are going to be support between $6,500 and $7,500, and if that support breaks, then price will likely get into the $4ks, so the next area of support would be $3k to $4k. I really don't expect support between $3k to $4k to break, but never say never in bitcoinlandia.

I have not changed my own BTC practice, which continues to be buying on the way down.. sometimes I might tweak my increments and my amounts, but largely I have buy orders in place below $6k that continue and had not been touched in the previous dips... Currently, I don't have any plans to change those buy orders, and I am not even convinced, yet that support is going to break in the $6,500 to $7,500 arena that would cause those buy orders to fill.... Call me an ongoing BTC price optimist.

Post: #223

Haha no, I'm not waiting solely for $1,000 mate. I think like you said $3-4k seems reasonable. I'm trading it and accumulating BTC on the way down. It would be nice to catch the bottom with some leverage but I have cash aside to throw at Bitcoin as we get lower too.

Post: #224

(05-23-2018 05:41 PM)Matt3B Wrote:  Haha no, I'm not waiting solely for $1,000 mate. I think like you said $3-4k seems reasonable. I'm trading it and accumulating BTC on the way down. It would be nice to catch the bottom with some leverage but I have cash aside to throw at Bitcoin as we get lower too.

O.k. We may be engaged in a similar buying on the way down practice, while holding funds in reserve for possible lower dips. I have funds available for $1k and below, too, but I really don't think that the price is going to go below $3k...

So, in essence, I am saying $3k to $4k to be within plausible extremes, but I would not characterize $3k to $4k as any kind of reasonable waiting-for price expectation - even though I do understand that some guys do wait for extreme conditions before they end up buying, which to me just seems like a nearly impossible task to time and then to really identify and take action on such... for example waiting for $1k or even below $3k to buy would seem to me to be a purposefully created situation that will cause non-action.. and I take a much more active approach, especially when it comes to bitcoin investing.

Post: #225

It looks like 2018 is following somewhat the pattern of 2013 in that after the big spike, it trended downwards for 2 years only to stay flat for 2 years and climb upward in 2017. I think that this pattern will accelerate faster only because more people now recognize cryptocurrency. However, they are still shaky due to the direction of the market.

For anyone who is thinking about buying, I would wait until the bottom is reached (could be 3 to 4k or 6k or 7k). Once the bottom has been established, then buy with both hands!