Post: #176

(01-22-2018 04:28 PM)Faust Wrote:  So CNBC is forecasting bear warnings...

That's like the best bullish indicator you could have, short of President Trump coming out with an "I Love Bitcoin" shirt and appointing Satoshi Nakamoto to the head of the federal reserve.

But all in all I think gework's case, particularly when it comes to alts and the panic that's going to set in, is extremely persuasive. Rep point from me.

You seem to be making a decent point here, Faust, and I never proclaim to know exactly where the BTC market is going; however, one thing that happens is that when sentiment begins to turn down, and even regular Joe Blows are largely shorting, then the market will have a decently sized upwards price movement to force close those shorts. The same is true in the opposite direction.

Our last test of support from less than a week ago that went below $10k caused a certain high level of shaking of confidence, and then the recovery to $13k was not quite enough to bring BTC prices out of the correction zone, as proven by this next phase of downward price pressures of the past day or two. These downward pressures of these past couple of days may have caused a decent number of folks to short - which may also cause their shorts to get R3ckt.

Post: #177

(01-22-2018 05:58 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  All of them, 'cause BTC offers no privacy.
Many of them offer far more.

Sam,
Even though I consider your comment to be overly negative in regards to the privacy capacities of bitcoin, including some likely future privacy capabilities that come through building on segwit, lightning network and schnorr signatures.

On the other hand, apparently there are some alts that are gaining some notoriety in their uptrending use randsomeware community, that might support theories of decent privacy and increasing liquidity of some of these alts.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/new-ransomw...urrencies/

Post: #178

(01-22-2018 04:00 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

Quote:90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin-...warns.html



For anyone who went short in last december - congratulations - excellent decision. It's a massive correction.

The dollar and currencies around the world could also crash thanks to unsustainable borrowing. Better have your money 50/50 in each just to be safe.

Post: #179

Always better to keep in mind the dimension of the bubble in Wall Street, which is a real bubble compared to crypto. A single company (Facebook) has at the moment the same market share of the whole crypto market (around 550B$): this is insane if you consider the opportunities that the blockchain/DAG is going to offer in the future for the various industries (supply chain / micro payments / IoT / Gaming / etc). So the crypto market is still very undervalued. Who invests in crypto now is still an early adopter. Maybe bitcoin will fail to deliver, but there are many real world application projects that in few years are going to change the world.

Post: #180

(01-30-2018 05:56 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  Always better to keep in mind the dimension of the bubble in Wall Street, which is a real bubble compared to crypto. A single company (Facebook) has at the moment the same market share of the whole crypto market (around 550B$): this is insane if you consider the opportunities that the blockchain/DAG is going to offer in the future for the various industries (supply chain / micro payments / IoT / Gaming / etc). So the crypto market is still very undervalued. Who invests in crypto now is still an early adopter. Maybe bitcoin will fail to deliver, but there are many real world application projects that in few years are going to change the world.

Facebook has 2 billion users though...

Post: #181

2 billion free users.

It might be overvalued in comparison to how much money it actually makes. Same with other companies like Twitter.

Post: #182

Facebook makes good money with it's ad system. I wouldn't call Facebook anywhere close to the scam that most Crypto's are.

Post: #183

Well, tethers just got subpeonaed. That was the thing I said would matter, when I said that other things didn't matter.

So I'm pulling out another huge chunk of my stack.

Post: #184

(01-30-2018 01:45 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Well, tethers just got subpeonaed. That was the thing I said would matter, when I said that other things didn't matter.

Bitfinex provided some live screening of their accounts on WhalePool chat this morning. Total funds $3B...

Post: #185

Doesn't surprise me. They have plenty of money, how could they not?

But the FUD's been around so long, and their handling of it has been so poor, that I'm not sure anything they do will get the market to believe them at this point.

Either way, I decided an exit signal in advance, back in Nov, and I'm sticking to it. I'm a big believer in sticking to a plan, and I was fast enough on the ball that I only incurred losses of around 10%, which I should make back on the short I have open at Bitmex.

Post: #186

(01-30-2018 11:57 AM)Samseau Wrote:  Facebook makes good money with it's ad system. I wouldn't call Facebook anywhere close to the scam that most Crypto's are.

+1

Hate him, but Mark Cuckenburg has done a fab job in monetizing Facebook. The only reason it didn't end up like Myspace / Friendster is because of Facebook Ads.

Post: #187

(01-30-2018 02:19 PM)Blancpain Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:57 AM)Samseau Wrote:  Facebook makes good money with it's ad system. I wouldn't call Facebook anywhere close to the scam that most Crypto's are.

+1

Hate him, but Mark Cuckenburg has done a fab job in monetizing Facebook. The only reason it didn't end up like Myspace / Friendster is because of Facebook Ads.

I thought that this thread was meant to be about the alleged (and perhaps supposed) bitcoin crash?

If you are convoluting the concepts of bitcoin and crypto you are likely engaging in foggy thinking and missing nuances.

Furthermore, there may be some helpfulness to consider centralized systems (such as facebook) as analogies, at least in terms of understanding and considering the impact of networking effects, and sometimes having some valuation comparisons dealing with market cap and what is being contributed to the market; however, when it comes to bitcoin, you have more than just a company.

With bitcoin you have a paradigm shifting decentralized construct that has never been accomplished previously, with networking effects building upon that and building upon ongoing developments including lightning network and increased financialization attention - so the utility or potential utility of those kinds of contributions and developments should be accounted when attempting to contemplate the value of bitcoin and whether a "crash" is actually happening or whether there is merely a temporary price correction (and attempt at manipulating prices downward and creating negative bitcoin impressions) that would likely be better understood in the context of exponential growth and s-curve adoption that is also likely in progress.

Post: #188

(01-30-2018 02:17 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Doesn't surprise me. They have plenty of money, how could they not?

But the FUD's been around so long, and their handling of it has been so poor, that I'm not sure anything they do will get the market to believe them at this point.

Either way, I decided an exit signal in advance, back in Nov, and I'm sticking to it. I'm a big believer in sticking to a plan, and I was fast enough on the ball that I only incurred losses of around 10%, which I should make back on the short I have open at Bitmex.

I remember at around $550 that our ex-member Satoshi took such similar public bettings against bitcoin after some of the Bitfinex shenanigans that caused that move to get pretty much reckt (that was August 2016) - especially considering that there had already been a decent correction and the FUD was not sustainable.

Similarly here, there is a chance that you could be correct in your bet, but I am not sure if it is worth the risk (especially margin trading), including even if Tethers were problematic (and not backed up), they still only constitute less than 2% of BTC's market cap, and much less of the overall crypto market cap (around .5%)... so seems like too much weight to be giving to one set of factors.

O.k. I am sure that you have your other reasons, too, and you have stated such bitcoin negativity over and over, but to me, it seems like guys should be considering buying BTC rather than selling because the BTC price has been going down. It does not matter to me personally, if guys buy or sell, because guys gotta do what they are going to do, but I think that there is plenty of decent news, fundamentals, financialization and buying support to keep upwards price pressures on BTC.
To each their own, I suppose.

Post: #189

My short is something like 1% of my holdings, I don't care if liquidates.

The market is shitty looking, and has been shitty looking for a while now. There's no reason to suffer sustained losses when I can just sell and buy back in later.

Post: #190

(01-30-2018 03:37 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  My short is something like 1% of my holdings, I don't care if liquidates.

The market is shitty looking, and has been shitty looking for a while now. There's no reason to suffer sustained losses when I can just sell and buy back in later.

O.k. That is fair enough.

To me, it seems that sometimes guys seem to be playing with really large percentages of their holdings with moves like this, and even though I disagree with shorting at this time and I am generally skeptical of margin betting, I can see how a 1% to 10% hedge bet could be prudent for some guys and their overall situation (which is for them to judge).

Post: #191

(01-30-2018 03:47 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 03:37 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  My short is something like 1% of my holdings, I don't care if liquidates.

The market is shitty looking, and has been shitty looking for a while now. There's no reason to suffer sustained losses when I can just sell and buy back in later.

O.k. That is fair enough.

To me, it seems that sometimes guys seem to be playing with really large percentages of their holdings with moves like this, and even though I disagree with shorting at this time and I am generally skeptical of margin betting, I can see how a 1% to 10% hedge bet could be prudent for some guys and their overall situation (which is for them to judge).

By the way, I appreciate your point about "not caring whether your margin short liquidates or not" because if I were in the practice of employing margin trading, then I would set them up under similar principles that I already employ, which is attempting to benefit from the market movement in either direction - but what I have found is that with BTC specifically, even if I benefit more from the price going up, ongoing volatility seems to be a really strong bet, so even if we do not know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term, seems like almost always we can get ahead by betting on volatility, so long as we let the price come to us, rather than getting ahead of ourselves (this practice of generally leaving orders in place does not rule out a from time to time practice of reassessing the situation and changing all of the orders based on such reassessment, as warranted).

Post: #192

(01-30-2018 02:17 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Doesn't surprise me. They have plenty of money, how could they not?

But the FUD's been around so long, and their handling of it has been so poor, that I'm not sure anything they do will get the market to believe them at this point.

Either way, I decided an exit signal in advance, back in Nov, and I'm sticking to it. I'm a big believer in sticking to a plan, and I was fast enough on the ball that I only incurred losses of around 10%, which I should make back on the short I have open at Bitmex.

Did you make it back yet? Or did you short lower?

Post: #193

What we need are proper Bitcoin options instead of futures/shorts. Way too much manipulation right now with exchanges temporarily bumping prices to close shorts. The fact the market still have so much room to mature shows that it still young. This crash will be temporary.

Post: #194

What's the best way to short bitcoin? I want to get in on this free money.

Post: #195

(02-06-2018 09:00 AM)_Cicero Wrote:  What's the best way to short bitcoin? I want to get in on this free money.

It's next to the place where they are selling the golden gate bridge

Post: #196

(02-06-2018 06:49 AM)zero1 Wrote:  What we need are proper Bitcoin options instead of futures/shorts. Way too much manipulation right now with exchanges temporarily bumping prices to close shorts. The fact the market still have so much room to mature shows that it still young. This crash will be temporary.

I agree with you that there are not a lot of financial tools in bitcoin, and bitcoin is a growing and maturing market.

Sure some people want more tools, but whether "we need" more tools is another question that is largely left to the free market. If the tools are developed then likely people will use them, but tools don't just pop into place all of a sudden because the tool providers need to decide whether they are going to provide a tool and then what exactly they would be providing if they were to provide it. I had provided a link to a NASDAQ video/article recently, and the CEO (a woman) was providing some of her company's deliberation process regarding outlines of a product that they were thinking of providing including some ways that they might provide a distinquished product from some of the others products being provided (specifically referring to a kind of BTC futures, I believe).

Regarding this "crash", I am coming a bit more around to the term, label "crash" to describe what we are going through. Hahahahahaha.. And, I suppose that part of my coming around is that the market has kind of evolved into a crash. I believe that I have estimated that the bottom is likely to be in approximately 4 times since $19,666.. maybe even five times...

I recall bottom in an $11k spike down, then $11k a second time, then $9k and then this current bottom of $5,920. This bottom could be real, this time. Perhaps. Maybe better than 50/50 odds? Probably too early to call with any precision, and maybe we gotta go back over $10k before I would start attempting to be more certain with my this time calling of the decent likelihood of "the bottom is in".

Post: #197

(02-06-2018 09:00 AM)_Cicero Wrote:  What's the best way to short bitcoin? I want to get in on this free money.

To me, it seems crazy to want to attempt to short bitcoin period, but especially shorting after about a 70% retracement. I think that many people short from exchanges that generally do not allow USA customers, by using Margin call, such as Bitfinex, Bitmex, and perhaps a few others. GDAX allows margin only to large USA players.

I think that your shorting options are limited for USA customers, but hey there may be some other guys that are more skilled on this, since I am not much of a believer in using margin call for one, and especially playing the short side of things. got my hands full playing around with longs... going long and going less long by selling some (which seems to me to be more like closing a long rather than opening a short)..

Post: #198

(01-25-2018 12:52 PM)RedPillUK Wrote:  The dollar and currencies around the world could also crash thanks to unsustainable borrowing. Better have your money 50/50 in each just to be safe.

That's true, in my mind, to investments beyond crypto and beyond currencies. Most americans have 90-100% of their investments in the U.S: US stocks, US bonds, in USD, etc. But the US is only 24% or so of the world's GDP. And certainly NOT the fastest growing economy. The reason, of course, is that there is a familiarity bias. But it's still risky. Even when you take into account the fact that many US multi-nationals earn a significant portion of their income oveaseas, you still have too much concentration in one country's risk profile. Not to mention the risk of regulatory or tax plans being whipsawed the next time one party controls both houses of Congress and the Presidency, as Trump is seeking to do with all things Obama and as some eventual democrat President is likely to attempt to do to Trump's tax reform.

I diversify my holdings so that only half are in the U.S. Even this is too concentrated, but it allows for the fact that, while the US may only be 24% of the world's economy, it's a much greater share of the market capitalization of global investments.

Post: #199

I just want to say, I called this shit.

/thread-65542.html

To those that listened, your welcome.

To those that didn't, lesson learned.

Now that craze has phased out, I am actually going to start looking into investing in some coin.

Post: #200

(05-15-2018 08:17 AM)PolymathGuru Wrote:  I just want to say, I called this shit.

/thread-65542.html

To those that listened, your welcome.
To those that didn't, lesson learned.

Now that craze has phased out, I am actually going to start looking into investing in some coin.

You are correct that a crash has happened since then.

But comparing Bitcoin prices then (1st of Nov) to now, BTC has risen more than 25%... I suspect that most altcoins had even higher profits...