Post: #151

(12-24-2017 06:44 AM)Razor Beast Wrote:  

(12-23-2017 09:50 AM)Road_Less_Taken Wrote:  Big possibility of a bull trap coming up. Lets look and see if we get the falling top in the next couple of days.

You called it. Looking like the 4-5k bounce off the 20k to 11k pullback was a bull trap.

I only call it right when I don't have any horses in the race so to speak! You'd have to think that that the bears will have control. Those who bought the bounce have either sold for a profit or not feeling good about themselves now. I don't see any support where we are going to have strong buyers coming in, though its volatile as hell so anything can happen and it doesn't look like a real falling top on the daily yet.

Post: #152

It's usually down until after january 1st.

If it goes to 10K, it will go lower.

Post: #153

(12-24-2017 06:58 AM)Nowak Wrote:  I don't see the utility of crypto or blockchain as a long term solution aside from pure speculation. Here is a good article about this

https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobo...e98c180100

If you read this article with a critical eye you can see this guy is just using bad frame game.

Quote:What if, ten years after it was invented, the reason nobody has adopted a distributed ledger at scale is because nobody wants it?

a half a trillion dollar market cap would suggest otherwise.

Quote:For one thing, there’s already a costless, instant way to exchange value without a middleman: cash.

how do send cash across the planet without a middleman?

Quote:The key feature of a new payment system — think of PayPal in its early days — is the confidence that if the goods aren’t as described you’ll get your money back.

Plus, it’s not actually that good a payment system — Visa can handle sixty thousand transactions per second, while Bitcoin historically taps out at seven.

fair points. the blockchain people are working on it. the tech is still in its infancy. I can name several projects already working on scaling and paypal-like services.

Quote:The government-backed banking system provides FDIC guarantees, reversibility of ACH, identity verification, audit standards, and an investigation system when things go wrong. Bitcoin, by design, has none of these things. I saw a remarkable message thread by someone whose bitcoin account got drained because their email had been hacked and their password was stolen. They were stunned to have no recourse!

This is where myself and people like Peter Schiff will disagree all the way. Governments should never be allowed to provide guarantees or be able to reverse or bail people out for losing their money. This is exactly what created and ended the bail outs of 2008-2009. When you create situations where there is artificially no risk for something, it ends up caving in a lot worse when a disaster strikes. Every time the governments guarantees something it always ends up with moral hazard where everyone takes advantage of the situation. Student loans, housing bubbles, fiat bubbles are all caused by the government-back guarantees. What this banker-author will probably never realize is the simple fact you cannot artificially shield people from mistakes. People must make their own mistakes and learn from them, being protected does not teach them lessons they can carry into the future. If you aren't careful you will get robbed, that's life, you learn from this and become stronger. Being dependent on others to protect you and bail you out just makes you weak and complacent.

Quote: in 2014, the then-#1 bitcoin trader, Mt. Gox, also lost $400m of investor money due to security failures. The subsequent #1 bitcoin trader, Bitfinex, also shut down after a loss of customer funds. Imagine the world if more banks had been drained of customer funds than not. Bitcoin is what banking looked like in the middle ages — “here’s your libertarian paradise, have a nice day.”

these things have been happening forever, and in much worse ways in the traditional banking sphere and continue to happen on a daily basis. He's being a tad disingenuous here.

Quote:Second, government policies are designed to disrupt terrorist financing and organized crime, and prevent traffic in illegal goods like stolen credit card numbers or child pornography.

here we go, the "won't somebody think of the children" appeal the emotion argument. Trade in your liberty for security argument. He want us to pay the consequences for the evil doings of criminals, screw this guy. I'm sure women and leftists will lap this up.

Quote:Why haven’t banks preferred this new technology? The answer is that setting up a Ripple Gateway isn’t actually much different than using the existing corresponding-account system

Yes and it costs a lot of money to adopt new systems. Banks are still using systems like SWIFT using tech from the 60's because it works and they aren't going to replace everything they have. However banks are eager to get into DLT and a few projects are involved in this right now.

Quote:smart contracts, Distributed storage, computing, and messaging, etc etc won't work

I'm going to paraphrase the rest of his article since it runs away from the central issue. I agree that 90% of this stuff is analogous to pets.com from the dotcom bubble. There's no need for blockchain tech to involved in everything, that would be redundant. A few things will become big and the rest will go into the scrap heap. Almost everyone agrees that there is a bubble surrounding the 1000's of new coins that are simply just money grab operations.

Post: #154

(12-11-2017 02:58 PM)xxx Wrote:  The bitcoin phenomenon very closely resembles the dot com bubble of the early 2000s, in that it's unearthing a herd like urge in the general population. First everyone follows the trend to buy high, like sheep, then everyone follows the trend to sell low. When anything starts to attract large amounts of unsophisticated investors -- trouble is very near.

It will only take a slight amount of fear to unleash a complete domino effect that will cause Bitcoin prices to drop dramatically, because average people's emotions are fragile when it comes to their money. We could see a panic starting very soon, seemingly out of no good reason, because of the emotional instability of naive investors that very recently started to buy the coin.

Once the smartest investors realize that the stock cannot go any higher, they will start selling, followed the next tier and so on, until the general population panics and a massive fire sale occurs, causing the stock to disintegrate.

Bitcoin after all is unsustainable, as the energy requirements to mine will just keep growing; the people's faith in the coin will not.

I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.

Post: #155

(01-02-2018 06:19 AM)Guitarman Wrote:  I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.

Bitcoin has actual value, not just tulip bulb value... I started to really understand that once I listened to Andreas Antonopoulos for a while.

As for the crash... https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

Post: #156

(01-02-2018 06:33 AM)OGPUA Wrote:  

(01-02-2018 06:19 AM)Guitarman Wrote:  I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.

Bitcoin has actual value, not just tulip bulb value... I started to really understand that once I listened to Andreas Antonopoulos for a while.

As for the crash... https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

Seems a bit lacking in analysis to me for guys to demonstrate a long streak of asserting that either a bitcoin crash is imminent or that it is actually in occurrence based on bubble theory and even analogies that try to suggest that bitcoin is like a kind of stock (that even seems to miss some of the underlying differentiating aspects of bitcoin, including its decentralized proof of work nature).

These kinds of assertions have been going on with bitcoin since its beginnings, but even in the past year, there were a lot of assertions that bitcoin was overvalued all the way up from $250 in October 2015 to $19,666 within the past few weeks.

Of course there are going to be corrections along the way, and even several corrections, makes it possible for bitcoin to continue on its upwards journey that also should include analysis of s-curve adoption, exponential growth, and metcalfe dynamics.

Sooner or later, guys asserting BTC crash or imminent crash are going to be correct, but mere correctness would not signify that they actually understand the whole dynamics behind bitcoin, including a large number of networking effects that continue to build upon bitcoin.

Furthermore, even if there are some symbiotic dynamics between various cryptos and bitcoin, each of us should be careful if we conflate our discussion of bitcoin with other cryptos. There are a lot of differences amongst the various cryptos, and there is especially a difference with what is being offered by bitcoin through proof of work etc, that is not even close to being matched by other cryptos, even though a large number of them make claims to being improvements upon bitcoin.

I guess part of my point is that it can take quite a bit of time to transition from a bear market to a bull market and back to a bear market, and since about October 2015, bitcoin has been in a bull market. If bitcoin transitions into a bear market (or crash or whatever), it could take 6 months to figure out that such transition has taken place or that the BTC price dynamics are sufficiently bearish, down trending or flat in order to clearly establish that such a bear transition has occurred.

Currently, I am of the opinion that the recent 7.5x move of BTC prices from $2600 to $19,666 within about 4 months has not been enough of a blow off top in order to be the end of our current upwards BTC price run, and part of the rationale remains that we have witnessed 4 decent price corrections (2 in the 30% arena and two in the 40% arena) that allow buying support to catch up and provide additional fuel for continued upwards price movements. So, yeah, my whole thinking could be wrong and that $19,666 was the blow off top, but I am currently thinking, based on the corrections that have happened and the ongoing upwards dynamics including additional interest of traditional financial sectors, that BTC has a decent chance that a blow off top would still be able to reasonably get another 50% minimum, but more likely in the 2x to 7x range of the current $19,666 ATH.

Again, nothing is guaranteed, so it should not hurt to engage in some preparation for BTC price movement in either direction.. and to come to your own conclusions about how to assign probabilities for each of the possible BTC price directions, and surely downward price movement is not imminently inevitable as the topic and title of a thread like this, including OP seems to want to assert.

Post: #157

CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

   

Post: #158

(01-02-2018 08:24 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

You're not wrong. In fact, this is what could be described as how a BTC crash looks like in a bull market i.e. not major drop in price but in dominance.

Post: #159

(01-02-2018 08:24 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

Lots of altcoins are having downward pressure right now, just from looking at the charts. My guess is that a lot of profit taking is going to happen over the immediate term, fueling another bull run for BTC. 20k and beyond.

Post: #160

(01-02-2018 08:24 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

This 100%. Bitcoin can't scale past the 20K mark. It's way too slow. I sold all my BTC after I had a transaction get stuck in the mempool for almost 5 days. Fuck that shit.

Can you imagine, you go to sell your BTC, and everyone else does at the same time, your payment gets stuck in line for over a week and when it sells you've lost half your investment or more?

WAAAAAY too much risk for me, and many others: hence the loss of BTC dominance. BTC is a shitcoin hot potato. A historical coin, but playing chicken with thousands isn't for anyone with half a brain.

Post: #161

Is this FUD or real news? I can't tell for sure:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-clampdown

Quote:After banning initial coin offerings and calling on local exchanges to halt virtual currency trading last year, Chinese authorities outlined proposals this week to discourage bitcoin mining -- the computing process that makes transactions with the cryptocurrency possible. Officials plan to limit the industry’s power use and have asked local governments to guide miners toward an “orderly” exit from the business, people familiar with the matter said.

Anyone in China know what's up and if this is true?

I wonder how this'll play out long-term. Will governments start banning PoW mining as it consumes more and more power?

Post: #162

Dragging this thread off of the 2nd page of crypto. This crash looks to be the legit cyclical crash. I considered taking it all off the table for shitcoins and going full usd/btc/eth but I didn't want to panic sell. I made the move this afternoon to just get into usd/btc/eth and hope to hold out there for a while.

Anyone else looking at safe havens for the time being? The only shitcoins I am not selling are BAT and Maidsafe.

Post: #163

(01-16-2018 05:29 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Dragging this thread off of the 2nd page of crypto. This crash looks to be the legit cyclical crash. I considered taking it all off the table for shitcoins and going full usd/btc/eth but I didn't want to panic sell. I made the move this afternoon to just get into usd/btc/eth and hope to hold out there for a while.

Anyone else looking at safe havens for the time being? The only shitcoins I am not selling are BAT and Maidsafe.

I'm not in anything. I don't think I would call Bitcoin a safe haven..

Post: #164

^^^^ What?? Digital gold brah.

Post: #165

Of course, GDAX takes a shit right now....

Post: #166

Anyone here actually shorting Bitcoin?
I am synthetically short Bitcoin by taking options on related equities such as RIOT. GBTC is too difficult to short and has no options available.
I am looking at other ideas like shorting KODK, but anyone else have any ideas?

Post: #167

Think we're in another bleed period like we were in October. I'm taking more profit.

I have two friends who are pro traders. One is a bull, one is a bear. The bear has been forecasting 8k BTC for weeks. The bull is now forecasting 7k BTC.

Post: #168

(01-22-2018 02:41 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Think we're in another bleed period like we were in October. I'm taking more profit.

I have two friends who are pro traders. One is a bull, one is a bear. The bear has been forecasting 8k BTC for weeks. The bull is now forecasting 7k BTC.

Which is good to hear. I'm accumulating below 9K.

Opportunties...as a song goes.

Post: #169

(01-16-2018 05:29 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Anyone else looking at safe havens for the time being?

I sold everything on 23 Dec and am lending out USD on Bitfinex. Current rate is ~$45 per $100K per day. Though on average my lending bot gets a little over 2% interest per month.

If I was still holding now I'd be somewhat tempted to just hold. Though I think it will go down more, I've also been eyeing ~$8K, but it could go down a lot more. The 1 week just crossed over on MACD. Without some FOMO news, this is going lower and I doubt it will pick up any time soon without some major good news.

Gox era crash compared to the current market:



Comparing the MACD, we are on that same candle that wicked down to 100. I'm tempted to move some assets around to pick up panic sells on more shaky exchanges, like bitcoin.de, which has already gone sub 6,000 EUR. I have a bit in Zimbabwe. Having funds on such out-back exchanges will allow you to profit the most from the pain.

I made the mistake of buying a bunch of low-cap alts recently and have been burned. Not much of a hit, but has been enough to cement me as a hard-out for now. There's lots of people out there feeling the pain. They're waiting for a bounce to turn their 30-50% losses into something a bit more palatable. Those who were recently millionaires are loosing that status. An injection of bad news now will cause serious panic. People will be buying the dip all the way down, but I doubt the bottom will be reached any time soon. All this pain will pancake until all the weak hands are out, then it will be time to buy back in.

Post: #170

Quote:90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin-...warns.html



For anyone who went short in last december - congratulations - excellent decision. It's a massive correction.

Post: #171

So CNBC is forecasting bear warnings...

That's like the best bullish indicator you could have, short of President Trump coming out with an "I Love Bitcoin" shirt and appointing Satoshi Nakamoto to the head of the federal reserve.

But all in all I think gework's case, particularly when it comes to alts and the panic that's going to set in, is extremely persuasive. Rep point from me.

Post: #172

(01-22-2018 04:00 PM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

Quote:90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin-...warns.html



For anyone who went short in last december - congratulations - excellent decision. It's a massive correction.

So you can come back to Wall Street...

What many people still don't understand is the real world application projects that are taking place. It's not only transactions with an internet currency. It is a new paradigm to cut costs and increase the quality in the supply chain for instance. By studying the market, it is easy to understand that being long in bitcoin is the wrong decision to be taken at the moment. It is actually a coin with zero utility. On the other end, there are projects (e.g. VeChain) in the market which have partnerships/clients with fortune 500 companies and they will change the world like Amazon, Google and Facebook did after the burst of the dot com.
So bitcoin is going down: massive correction, crypto are shit, come back to your 1%/year t-bond! Not at all, if you invest in real world applications projects, you aren't getting burned.

Then again, governments and media are against changes in the status quo and decentralization, hence they are trying to block people from investing in crypto.

Post: #173

Oh my, cryptocurrency on RVF? LOL! I have seen it all now. And Satoshi was Red Pill.

Post: #174

Late in, but i guess my question is, do any of the new alternatives to bitcoin offer its level of privacy?

Post: #175

All of them, 'cause BTC offers no privacy.
Many of them offer far more.