Post: #1

With all of the attention (and rightfully so) that Hurricane Harvey has received - an equally if not more troubling storm has been moving in the Atlantic and is now a Category 4, with it's eyes seemingly set on Miami.

I live Fort Lauderdale just north of Miami and will be evacuating north in a few days barring a total shift in the forecast. A State of Emergency was declared in all of Florida just an hour ago.

The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas are all in grave danger as well.





South Florida has avoided a storm like this for quite some time and may be running out luck. I can only imagine what a Cat 4-5 storm surge (would make Harvey look like some small waves) would do to the beach areas down there which have really been heavily developed in the past 10 years. I am very concerned.

Post: #2

I hope you guys at least kept your drainage system up to snuff with all the new development.

I'm on the West Coast of Florida, so I plan on doing mild stocking tomorrow.

Best of luck to you and to all other windward Florida REFers!

Post: #3

Interesting how drastically the path shifted from like 2 days ago, where it was forecast to stay well east, even of the Bahamas. Now it's going west into Cuba then immediately turns right up into us. I'm on the east coast as well, probably going to be evacuating wednesday or thursday unless the path drastically shifts again away from us. Fucker is headed straight for me. Also probably going to be taking a lot of my valuables and irreplaceable possessions with me , just in case. This thing is a cat 4 already and has nothing in the way that will weaken it, probably a strong 4 or a 5 when it hits. I just hope I'm not stuck in gridlock when I do decide to leave like last time, that was a very nerve wracking experience, especially when I had to get gas...and couldn't find any.

Good luck to all the Floridians on the board, and keep a close eye. As you know these things can change course at any moment. If this does hit it's going to be very ugly and very scary.

Post: #4

I was a small fry and we lived in Fort Lauderdale when Andrew came rolling through in the early 90s, Miami got fucked up bad. Prayers for all in the path, GTFO once you know where it's headed!

Post: #5

(09-05-2017 12:33 AM)DJ-Matt Wrote:  I was a small fry and we lived in Fort Lauderdale when Andrew came rolling through in the early 90s, Miami got fucked up bad. Prayers for all in the path, GTFO once you know where it's headed!

True, but it was not a direct hit but 10-20 miles south of Miami (Homestead). Could have been much worse.

Post: #6

Post: #7

(09-04-2017 05:03 PM)Synezthetic Wrote:  ...
South Florida has avoided a storm like this for quite some time and may be running out luck. I can only imagine what a Cat 4-5 storm surge (would make Harvey look like some small waves) would do to the beach areas down there which have really been heavily developed in the past 10 years. I am very concerned.

Global warming's evil hurricanes have been at bay for a few years. They're coming back.

Time to double down on donations to Al Gore's The Climate Reality Project to prevent hurricanes.

Seriously though, that's a big hurricane. Hopefully minimal damage.

Post: #8

I'm in central Florida Atlantic coast, right on the ocean. Supplies are sold out here.

Post: #9

Upgraded to category 5

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/05/us/hurrica...index.html

Post: #10

Barring extreme levels of obligation in the area like sick immobilized parents, it would be prudent to evacuate for a week.

Few people will follow this.

Post: #11

I'm overseas but my girl is at home. I have people in Corpus and the Bronx. Both said they will take her in. I told her Texas is probably best. If you fly to New York, you will probably run into remnants coming back. She wants to still go to NYC.

I bought renters insurance yesterday. My car is in a fairly good spot. All I have is clothes and shoes at home. South Tampa is prone to flooding so if we get any of the hurricane it will be a bad day.

I'm glad I don't have a 9-5 and have to wait for approval to leave. I was working for Southwest last year and it would suck seeing everybody leave and I'm waiting for the airport to shut down before I go. I hope to never return to that 9-5 grind.

May God be with all my Florida brothers. If you drive, I'd go to New Orleans. I can't imagine what the traffic will be like over the weekend.

Post: #12

Traffic is not going to be too bad, because people don't all evacuate at the same time, plenty of lead time. They'll have all day Friday and Saturday to get out of dodge, should the path stay as projected above by Friday. That's the advantage of hurricanes over other natural disasters like earthquakes.

Right now this looks like the worst-case scenario in terms of the path of the hurricane, right over all the Leeward and Greater Antilles, and south Florida to boot.

Post: #13

(09-05-2017 12:38 PM)911 Wrote:  Traffic is not going to be too bad, because people don't all evacuate at the same time, plenty of lead time. They'll have all day Friday and Saturday to get out of dodge, should the path stay as projected above by Friday. That's the advantage of hurricanes over other natural disasters like earthquakes.

I wouldn't underestimate the traffic associated with getting out of the way of a major hurricane like this. Everyone in south and central Florida has to take the same roads essentially since this storm might simply go north through the entire state. Also most people will be doing the same thing. Waiting another day or two for the forecast to tighten up.

Already issues with gas lines in Miami. The people who got supplies yesterday were the observant ones. It's already too late...Miami is a mess.

FYI Irma now 185 mph

Post: #14

I haven't seen any of the forecasts that have it passing through the Florida straits and into the Gulf, but if that happens, that could be devastating. Tropical Storm Jose is also developing right behind this one.

Post: #15

(09-05-2017 10:10 AM)DJ-Matt Wrote:  

It's heading for el mech!

Post: #16

The track of Irma might largely depend on a strong front that's currently in the Mid-Atlantic and stretches deep into Texas. How powerful that front is will determine the storm's path, in part. Below is the surface analysis forecast for Thursday at 8AM as of this posting. If this forecast is correct, I couldn't tell you the last time I've seen the center of high pressure that far South (southeast of Kansas City) during this time of year. We'll see how things play out. Hopefully for the best and it goes straight into the Atlantic and misses.




http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surf...ast48.aspx

Post: #17

(09-05-2017 07:28 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  

(09-05-2017 10:10 AM)DJ-Matt Wrote:  

It's heading for el mech!

This dude's ride just went from beta to an alpha+++

Post: #18

If you owned that car you would be honour bound to drive around blasting SpongeBob themes from the stereo.

Post: #19

Strongest and most damaging winds are usually in the NE corner of the storm, which could be a real problem for SW Florida (Fort Myers, Naples) and to a lesser extent Tampa area - if it takes that path of hitting the west coast of the state.

Post: #20

The model I am keeping my eye on is the one that could potentially affect the Northeast. Right now, Florida is preparing for lots of destruction and had the state of emergency and evacuations starting.

Post: #21

If there's anywhere to be in a hurricane, it's Florida. We know where it floods and we've been through this many times.

Post: #22

Latest model runs are trending eastward, showing a possible direct hit to the Carolinas that spares Florida:




Everyone from the Keys on up through the Outer Banks should be keeping a very close eye on this.

Post: #23

Gas situation gets worse. Long lines at 3am and places running out again.

Post: #24

Hard to remember not having 50 litres of fuel or more in storage. I guess living in an apartment would make it hard, but anyone with a house has no excuse.

Post: #25

Hopefully these 48 hour surface forecasts hold up. If that front can push through that far it might make a difference in steering Irma clear.

Forecast for Friday at 8AM EST as of this posting.



http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surf...ast48.aspx