^Bro I love KoolAid!

(06-16-2017 03:28 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I was thinking this morning -- for several months now, ETH and BTC usually go and down together, keeping a ~0.1 eth/btc ratio give or take.

But with Aug 1 looming, and no signs of an acceptable resolution for BTC, these may decouple. Bitcoin may get clobbered and lose lots of market share to the next biggest crypto. If that is ETH, currently at #2, it will absolutely rocket.

Right now, BTC's share is 40bn and ETH is 33bn.

Hypothetically, if BTC loses half of its market share because of community infighting, reducing its price from $2,500 to around $1,200.

For simplicity's sake, let's assume 100% of these sellers move their wealth to ETH, its market share will shoot up to 53bn, where its price would achieve a new floor of $576. That's assuming no overall growth in cryptos as a whole.

With continued growth of cryptos market, a doubling of market cap from 100bn to 200bn would drive ETH's price to over $1,000 if the above assumptions hold.

Thoughts? Please tell me if I'm drinking the ETH koolaid...

Let's assume BTC goes down in the dumps to 1200 or whatever lower number. Do you honestly believe it's going to stay there? Bitcoin is the most famous coin, the one with the most good will, especially among the international community. Even if ETH surpasses BTC because of functionality (smart contracts, etc) I still believe it would go back up to around 3000. Whether it will moon to 10000, 100000 and to the moon is another matter.

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  

(06-15-2017 04:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [edited out]

Crypto's can be used as money, but currently their "real world application" is more like being a stock/gold. The question is, do we see a shift of investments from stock/gold to coins (as most of them are currently not used like a currency for daily transactions). If so, how much?

I think generally speaking you are correct, but maybe the proper description would be storage of value and speculation rather than currency - even though many of the cryptos can be used as currencies, there is a bit of a lack of development and adoption to cause utility to use them as currencies - so a large number of folks who buy cryptos are speculating regarding their future use cases.

These are early adopter and very wild wild west days when it comes to various cryptos and likely a large number of them are going to become more niche and maybe not deliver what they are supposed to deliver - kind of pump and dumps that might not be developed, but even the most widespread of the adoption of various coins is still little known by mainstream people, so there is still a lot of room for growth for a lot of coins.

Oh yeah, and the level of adoption is going to vary too based on region of the world, but if the planet is 7 billion people, 1% would be 70 million, and .1% would be 7 million. I would be surprised if .3% (that would be 21 million people) have had any kind of exposure to any crypto. So the exposure to crypto remains fairly niche and likely somewhat technical folks, but far from widespread, so there seems to remain an ongoing and continued widespread potential for growth - even to approach 1% of the world population would cause stupendous growth.

By the way, currently, coinbase does claim to have nearly 8 million users worldwide

https://www.coinbase.com/about?locale=en-US

And most estimates put number of bitcoin holders far below .5% (which would be about 35 million)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1925152.0

You would think that studies of the cryptospace more broadly would bring a larger number of users, but even recent studies have not given large numbers of crypto users - recent article asserting only 3 million crypto users (seems to contradict or not account for coinbase statistics)

http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/07/three-...ncy-users/


Difficult to know with any precision about the total number of crypto users, but my point still remains that even getting crypto users up to 1% of the worlds population seems to be considerable growth as compared to where

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  Are they delivering fiat money dividends, no.

Probably, you are largely correct that there are no dividends or interest, but even your highlighting this point seems to be forcing some limited definition regarding what is crypto - even though crypto has a lot of variance and use case possibilities that can attempt to allow for these kinds of applications in future scenarios (not currently applied or developed)

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  Then let's compare them to Gold.
How much investment will the coins take from Gold market capitalization, I doubt it's going to be more than 50% until the technology is ripe.

Sure, gold is a decent comparison. Gold has been around several thousand of years and has some limitations in portability and practicality that may not be the same encumberances of various cryptos - yet we cannot lump them all together.

Of course, there are lots of articles on this topic, yet you seem to be just jumping ahead in terms of going from zero to 50% at some unspecified future date.. ? We got a long way to go before any cryptos or even the combination of cryptos approach 50% of the market cap of gold.

By the way, currently gold is around $7 trillion market cap, but for round numbers, let's give them benefit of the doubt of $10 trillion market cap. Currently all cryptos are a bit over $100 billion, so currently, the combined market cap seems to be at about 1%. This number has 5x'd in the past several months, and a few months ago, all cryptos were less than $20 billion, so about .5% of gold.


In any event, there can be some use cases that cause for some cryptos to grow more or less and to take from some of the gold's use cases.

I personally consider my investment in crypto to be a hedge that is similar to a gold investment, and therefore I invest in cryptos rather than gold, and surely there are probably quite a few people who have similar thinking, and so the concept and the practice is still evolving since cryptos are less than 9 years old - so a very immature market in which we would not want to speculate too much about its future use cases that are still in the process of developing.

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  That would leave us with a total capitalization of 3 Trillion USD, but only if institutional investors jump on board .

o.k. we have similar numbers, but I still wonder what you are attempting to achieve by talking about pure numbers in a very immature situation - which is the crypto space. The crypto space may go up and down in terms of market cap, and it could take years and years to reach a $1trillion market cap, but so what? There is a lot going on in the space besides the market cap, which is just one measurement of the industry.

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  I don't know how big the black market/illegal trading is for drugs and whatever, but that would be also a good indicator for Zcash or other anonymous coins.

There are all kinds of use cases for cryptos and all kinds of articles written on the topics of use cases, and there is some entrances in the various markets by using cryptos and they are still finding their uses in these various niches.

One are that is mentioned a lot is also remittances and sending small amounts or up to millions of dollars in capital worldwide without hardly any costs and without hardly any control by third parties.

This is fucking powerful to potentially avoid capital controls, and governments and financial institutions understand the threat of such power that flows into crypto and flows into crypto more and more as the market increases and liquidity of the market increases.

It's a big fucking threat, so referring to smaller use cases is only part of the picture of various cryptos.

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  The bubble of shit coins will crash. How about we create our own coin as well, "ICO" and cash in. Seems like an easy fraud. Even naming it JizzCoin, ShitCoin, PumpCoin, WeStealYoMo would not stop people from buying in at the moment.

You are not really asserting anything new here. Of course there are going to be ups and downs in the various coins, and some are obvious scams, and even some folks know that they are investing in scams, but they still invest if they believe that they can get in and get out without being the greater fool.

So, even though a lot of them are going to crash, do you know when that is going to happen?

There have been shit coins and joke coins and bullshit for several years, but the scale of some of the ICO craze and mania has gone up thousands of folds in recent months.. Yeah we can see that it may not end well, but at the same time, there could be a good six more months or even longer before some of this craziness plays out. On the other hand, it could crash tomorrow, but I doubt it. I think that at minimum we have several more weeks and more likely several more months of shit coin craziness pumping and lots of people are going to make a lot of money until it crashes and maybe even during the early stages of a crash, too. You are not really asserting anything new, so I am a bit confused about what point you were wanting to make by denigrating what a large majority of the folks already know is going on.

(06-16-2017 03:52 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 03:28 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I was thinking this morning -- for several months now, ETH and BTC usually go and down together, keeping a ~0.1 eth/btc ratio give or take.

But with Aug 1 looming, and no signs of an acceptable resolution for BTC, these may decouple. Bitcoin may get clobbered and lose lots of market share to the next biggest crypto. If that is ETH, currently at #2, it will absolutely rocket.

Right now, BTC's share is 40bn and ETH is 33bn.

Hypothetically, if BTC loses half of its market share because of community infighting, reducing its price from $2,500 to around $1,200.

For simplicity's sake, let's assume 100% of these sellers move their wealth to ETH, its market share will shoot up to 53bn, where its price would achieve a new floor of $576. That's assuming no overall growth in cryptos as a whole.

With continued growth of cryptos market, a doubling of market cap from 100bn to 200bn would drive ETH's price to over $1,000 if the above assumptions hold.

Thoughts? Please tell me if I'm drinking the ETH koolaid...

Let's assume BTC goes down in the dumps to 1200 or whatever lower number. Do you honestly believe it's going to stay there? Bitcoin is the most famous coin, the one with the most good will, especially among the international community. Even if ETH surpasses BTC because of functionality (smart contracts, etc) I still believe it would go back up to around 3000. Whether it will moon to 10000, 100000 and to the moon is another matter.

I haven't even looked that far ahead. It probably won't stay there, but who really knows. But that's not the point I was making.

(06-16-2017 04:12 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 03:52 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 03:28 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I was thinking this morning -- for several months now, ETH and BTC usually go and down together, keeping a ~0.1 eth/btc ratio give or take.

But with Aug 1 looming, and no signs of an acceptable resolution for BTC, these may decouple. Bitcoin may get clobbered and lose lots of market share to the next biggest crypto. If that is ETH, currently at #2, it will absolutely rocket.

Right now, BTC's share is 40bn and ETH is 33bn.

Hypothetically, if BTC loses half of its market share because of community infighting, reducing its price from $2,500 to around $1,200.

For simplicity's sake, let's assume 100% of these sellers move their wealth to ETH, its market share will shoot up to 53bn, where its price would achieve a new floor of $576. That's assuming no overall growth in cryptos as a whole.

With continued growth of cryptos market, a doubling of market cap from 100bn to 200bn would drive ETH's price to over $1,000 if the above assumptions hold.

Thoughts? Please tell me if I'm drinking the ETH koolaid...

Let's assume BTC goes down in the dumps to 1200 or whatever lower number. Do you honestly believe it's going to stay there? Bitcoin is the most famous coin, the one with the most good will, especially among the international community. Even if ETH surpasses BTC because of functionality (smart contracts, etc) I still believe it would go back up to around 3000. Whether it will moon to 10000, 100000 and to the moon is another matter.

I haven't even looked that far ahead. It probably won't stay there, but who really knows. But that's not the point I was making.

I don't think that you have to go that far ahead to account for both the upside and the downside of possibilities.

Also, decoupling is a bit of a longshot, even though it is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Neither coin is going to completely lose market share.

Even though Burneremail presents another viewpoint that may not play out, his post demonstrates the complexity of the relationships and the unrealistic nature to attempt to completely write off bitcoin. The same is true for folks who believe more in the bitcoin side of the equation (and I would likely fall in that category), there is no way that I can reasonably completely write off ETH and just assume it is going to collapse under the weight of a bunch of scam coins and flawed code, even though that is one scenario that is seeming less and less plausible as ETH grows in market cap and even if it crashes by 50% or 70%.

If I'm going to sit in front of my computer/phone watching ETH volatility then I am going to get paid for my time and attention.

Bank USD > Coinbase
GDAX USD > ETH
Buy order $300
Transfer ETH Poloniex
Sell order $400 for USDT

Why ride the roller coaster horrified when you can make hundreds on both the ups and downs? I plan to set this twice/day or more depending on trends.

Delete

(06-15-2017 09:52 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  The bubble of shit coins will crash. How about we create our own coin as well, "ICO" and cash in. Seems like an easy fraud.

Yeah we're bound to have some developers that can write code here. Let's draft up a white paper, open a website, do some press releases, and do an ICO. We can do all this shit by the end of July and cash out nice. At least 5 million on dumbasses buying our RooshCoin.

If anyone is serious about this, reach out to @Ali on twitter, he is already working on an something bigger and better than a joke/shitcoin and has some heavy hitter investors and well-known figures lined up to promote it.

Food for thought.

This guy's channel is quite useful for understanding the technology behind blockchain and certain cryptos.

17 minutes long

(06-16-2017 06:08 AM)Gmac Wrote:  

(06-15-2017 09:52 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  

(06-15-2017 09:38 PM)void Wrote:  The bubble of shit coins will crash. How about we create our own coin as well, "ICO" and cash in. Seems like an easy fraud.

Yeah we're bound to have some developers that can write code here. Let's draft up a white paper, open a website, do some press releases, and do an ICO. We can do all this shit by the end of July and cash out nice. At least 5 million on dumbasses buying our RooshCoin.

If anyone is serious about this, reach out to @Ali on twitter, he is already working on an something bigger and better than a joke/shitcoin and has some heavy hitter investors and well-known figures lined up to promote it.

Got excited that Aliblahbla was doing some pretty heavy stuff in his post-RVF life. Googled this guy. Obviously not him.

Sad!

(06-16-2017 04:35 AM)Travel Museums Wrote:  If I'm going to sit in front of my computer/phone watching ETH volatility then I am going to get paid for my time and attention.

Bank USD > Coinbase
GDAX USD > ETH
Buy order $300
Transfer ETH Poloniex
Sell order $400 for USDT

Why ride the roller coaster horrified when you can make hundreds on both the ups and downs? I plan to set this twice/day or more depending on trends.

I see no arb here. The quotes on Polo are the same as on GDAX. Where are you getting these quotes from?

After doing more and more reading on the subject, the Proof of Work to Proof of Stake issue has become a big concern of mine. ETH's market cap is $34 Billion right now. That's a huge amount of money riding on a substantial revision to the foundation of ETH. What happens if in the millions of lines of code there's a fuck up? That's a shit-ton of money and itchy trigger fingers reacting to every little thing. Also, miners are heavily invested in the PoW system and have a big economic incentive to keep it going. We've seen the ugliness that Bitmain and other miners have caused in the BTC sphere. This could very well likely happen in ETH and another hard-fork (ETHPoW vs ETHPoS) might be in the cards.

When ETH forks and switches from PoS to PoW there's a possibility the miners continue to support the old chain (because it's more profitable for them, at least in the short-term).

If so all the Ethereum tokens are on both chains. So does that mean you can double-spend these tokens?

(06-16-2017 03:19 PM)Valentine Wrote:  When ETH forks and switches from PoS to PoW there's a possibility the miners continue to support the old chain (because it's more profitable for them, at least in the short-term).

If so all the Ethereum tokens are on both chains. So does that mean you can double-spend these tokens?

YES, but you're going to see serious changes in the values of both of these.


This link describes how it went down the last time there was an ETH split, with Etherium Classic. What happened was that the lesser fork (ETC) immediately became worth 5% of what the greater fork was. So your money doesn't double, but it is an opportunity for a little extra.

LTC climbed up to 4th place on market cap replacing NEM

(06-16-2017 03:49 PM)Oz. Wrote:  LTC climbed up to 4th place on market cap replacing NEM

Yep. I picked some up yesterday on its dip, and glad I did. In addition to it launching on bitstamp on Monday, Lee is also promising that Monday should be good news.
https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8...2520734720

Yes LTC seems bullish at least for the short term. They weathered the recent crypto dip pretty well compared to other coins and they have that upcoming announcement. Eventually I might dabble in some exchanges to buy altcoin. For now I'm only on Gemini and Coinbase (closing my coinbase soon)

Latest Professional Perspective on Cryptos Volatility:

Cryptocurrency Volatility Update
Dear DeepDiver,

Big T here.

I wanted to send you a quick update about the recent volatility we’re seeing in the cryptocurrency markets.

Over the last couple of days, we’ve seen:

Bitcoin hit a high of $3,000 then drop to a low of $2,200.

Ethereum trade over $400 and then pull back to about $300.

Other names in our portfolio have experienced similar wild moves.

For those of you who are new to cryptos, this type of volatility may be unsettling.

For those of you who have been with Palm Beach Letter since early last year, you know this is par for the course.

Since buying Monero, we’ve seen drops of 14%, 16%, 42%, and 28%. But overall, we’re up 223%.

When we bought ether, it went from $8 to $21 to $6! A year later, it rose to over $400.

The point is: These assets are volatile—just like the dot-com stocks were in the 1990s.

In this update, I’ll explain what’s causing this volatility. And I’ll show you three things you need to know to ride through it.

Be sure to check out the resources we’re constantly adding to our Crypto Corner. If you have questions about anything cryptocurrencies, chances are you’ll find the answers there.

Most recently, we’ve updated the Quick-Start Guide, created an International Buying Guide, and put together a four-step resource for buying and storing cryptocurrencies.

Why All the Volatility?

This recent bout of volatility stems from the bitcoin scaling debate.

In brief, two groups of bitcoin developers are proposing two different solutions to speed up transaction times on the network. This rift could cause a “fork” and create two versions of bitcoin.

The media is calling this conflict the digital “missile crisis.”

We’re not sweating it, and neither should you.

The last time we saw this happen was in March 2017. That’s when bitcoin developers threatened to split into Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited. We wrote about it here. Bitcoin dropped from nearly $1,300 to $950.

Then, just like now, it looks to us like the “whales” (big-money bitcoin guys) are trying to scare loose some bitcoin.

Well, guess what? They can’t have ours!

Back in March, we told you to stand fast and not to sweat the volatility. Once that crisis passed, bitcoin more than doubled off its lows. We expect the same thing to happen again.

A Flood of Cash Is Coming to Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is adding 100,000 new customers per week. Gemini, Kraken, and the other global exchanges are seeing similar demand.

Here is why that’s important…

All of these new accounts have to be verified. This is creating a huge backlog of new crypto buyers. Think of it like a massive lake of cash being held back by a regulatory wall.

Once the exchanges catch up, the dam will burst and a flood of cash will come crashing into the crypto market. This wave of new money will lift the whole market higher.

Remember, the crypto market is only $100 billion big. That sounds like a lot, but in terms of global finance, it’s a pimple on an elephant’s behind.

The global stock market has a value of $70 trillion. The fiat (paper money) market has a value of $82 trillion. Gold has a value of $7 trillion.

So you can see that the crypto market has a lot of growth in front of it.

One last word of advice I’ll leave you with…

Three Things You Need to Know to Ride Volatility

Below is a chart of Microsoft. It shows the monster run it had from 1986–2000.

During that period, the stock rose from a split-adjusted 10 cents per share to over $50. From valley to peak, every $1,000 investment in Microsoft turned into $500,000.

Video
It’s tough to see how volatile Microsoft was on the long-term chart. So I’ve included some zoomed-in shots to show you what it was like to “live” with Microsoft.

Video
You can see that in Microsoft’s first decade as a public company, it was highly volatile much like Ethereum, bitcoin, and many others are today. This volatility moderated somewhat in the ’90s (see chart below).

Video
You can see that even though we were in the biggest bull market in history in the ’90s, Microsoft was still very volatile and oftentimes quite boring. My point is that cryptos are following the same script that dot-coms did in the ’90s.

Just like then, we will see explosive growth followed by terrifying pullbacks. But there’s no reason to be alarmed or take drastic action. We have a three-stage process for thriving during a crazy bull market…

Stage 1 is to hold fast to our positions during the pullbacks.

Stage 2 is to be smart enough to buy in on the pullbacks.

Stage 3 is to be smart enough to let our positions go when the whole world is crypto crazy.

Right now, we are in Stage 2. That means you should expect a string of buy alerts from me as we use this pullback to buy into new ideas. Stage 3 is many years away. When my cab driver and waiter start giving me crypto tips, that’ll be our signal to get out.

Until then, keep this email handy. Refer to it when you get worried. Remember the three stages. And ask yourself: Have we hit Stage 3 yet? If the answer is no, then just hang tough and ride out the volatility.

Because if you do, we’ll have a whole portfolio of Microsoft-type winners.

Friends, the future is bright for cryptos. Stay focused on the big picture. Use appropriate position sizing and we will continue to make a killing for years to come.

Let the Game Come to You!

Big T

(06-16-2017 04:30 PM)trian1 Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 03:49 PM)Oz. Wrote:  LTC climbed up to 4th place on market cap replacing NEM

Yep. I picked some up yesterday on its dip, and glad I did. In addition to it launching on bitstamp on Monday, Lee is also promising that Monday should be good news.
https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8...2520734720

These three words? Promising?

Pasted this to Isaac but realized there's no reason to just keep it to him.

"Some information that might or might not be useful for you: A Japanese company called "Bitpoint", which is one of the larger bitcoin trading companies in Japan (It's hard to get a perfect handle on who's the biggest) just announced yesterday during the dip that they're going to start dealing in ETH as well starting in august. They have a system where you can sell them your ETH/BTC and pick it up in cash from a local dealer, and they're in talks to expand to convenience stores, which would instantly make them the largest company in Japan that deals in cryptocurrencies, since there's a convenience store every block."

Set some buy limits today at 350, 349, and 345 to pick up a bit more cheap ETH before the rebound. Whoever suggested that thanks I didn't utilize the limit orders before.

My buy limits at 350 and 349 triggered on my lunch break but the one for 345 (still up btw) never triggered and I doubt it will. The price doesn't seem to wanna go below 350 and like that article said I feel like a LOT of new money is coming into the market. The press about Ethereum has been huge, I've some of the guys on twitter like LAPlayboy and some other PUA/manosphere start tweeting about it, I've seen it mentioned on my LinkedIn feed, and Bloomberg, WSJ, and other publications like GQ and medium and Vanity Fair have been talking about it.

That means a lot of people are going to be throwing some money at this thing. Can't wait for the next run up... Gonna be sweet. I think we're goin to 500 and above by early July.

EDIT: Aaaaannnnd my limit buy at 345 just triggered as well. Price is at 344 now. Let's see how this plays out.

(06-16-2017 06:28 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 04:30 PM)trian1 Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 03:49 PM)Oz. Wrote:  LTC climbed up to 4th place on market cap replacing NEM

Yep. I picked some up yesterday on its dip, and glad I did. In addition to it launching on bitstamp on Monday, Lee is also promising that Monday should be good news.
https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/8...2520734720

These three words? Promising?

Pure speculation, but many suspect an announcement about LN. Last time he said that, it was an announcement that Coinbase would begin trading it, and it was good news.

EDIT: Aaaaannnnd my limit buy at 345 just triggered as well. Price is at 344 now. Let's see how this plays out.

Darkwing Buck... Which crypto exchange are you buying your ETH on?

(06-17-2017 01:03 AM)Deepdiver Wrote:  EDIT: Aaaaannnnd my limit buy at 345 just triggered as well. Price is at 344 now. Let's see how this plays out.

Darkwing Buck... Which crypto exchange are you buying your ETH on?

Gemini. Almost midnight on the west coast and we're stuck at 349/350. I'm glad the price has been close to 350 all day.

Anyone see this pump?

# Name Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply Volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d
439 Sprouts Sprouts SPRTS $1,020,875 $0.000005 201,479,133,550 * Low Vol 2.01% 4526.50% 3841.39