(06-14-2017 05:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Just a few days ago, I had been thinking that the odds of bitcoin breaking above $3k and going to $4 to $6k were pretty good in the next 6 weeks - but this latest news kind of flips those odds on their head and gives pretty decent odds to a short-to medium term downward scenario, and this is the second leg that could bring us into the sub $2k and the third leg would be possibly in the $1500 range. Harder to go below $1500 but certainly not impossible. and even breaking below $1k is not out of the question.

I had no idea how influential Bitmain was. I had seen the announcement earlier and brushed it off.

Is there a specific price that BTC and ETH would hold below that would cause you to think "bear" rather than "correction?"

I was thinking holding below 2200 for BTC and below 270 for ETH for more than 24 hours would be "bad." But I pulled those numbers out of my ass based on the last 2 weeks of prices and volume, instead of any real charting.

I am guessing you'd think lower numbers would be ok, since you mentioned possible BTC below 1500 in a correction?

(06-14-2017 06:16 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  s

(06-14-2017 05:43 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  I fully believe that ETH will hit $500 this year which is why I'm willing to do this.

What's your reasoning behind this? Considering that ETH has already appreciated 4000 % since the beginning of the year.

(06-14-2017 05:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Just a few days ago, I had been thinking that the odds of bitcoin breaking above $3k and going to $4 to $6k were pretty good in the next 6 weeks - but this latest news kind of flips those odds on their head and gives pretty decent odds to a short-to medium term downward scenario, and this is the second leg that could bring us into the sub $2k and the third leg would be possibly in the $1500 range. Harder to go below $1500 but certainly not impossible. and even breaking below $1k is not out of the question.

I don't know how high the odds to play out the full extent of the second leg or the third leg, because matters can reverse too.. and it is not obvious that other coins would have a reverse correlation to bitcoin's price, but some might, such as ETH...

So you've sold?

@Satoshi I don't believe the bull run is over. The hype is real and I stated earlier in the thread at the top of the page exactly why I believe now is one of the worst possible times to sell off ETH.

Though depending on when someone bought in and for how much there's also nothing wrong with recognizing profits/gains now. I simply believe that due to the factors I mentioned earlier regarding the imminent Bitcoin fork, influx of press and attention around ETH, the EEA support, and the "flippening" that ETH will continue to rise toward $500 before year's end and possibly before the summer ends. A price drop now doesn't phase me too much to be honest because I'm bullish on ETH long term. Price drops like today just give me another chance to buy more (which I did buy more at 330 about 40 minutes ago).

I'm pretty optimistic about that but only time will tell.

(06-14-2017 06:16 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 05:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Just a few days ago, I had been thinking that the odds of bitcoin breaking above $3k and going to $4 to $6k were pretty good in the next 6 weeks - but this latest news kind of flips those odds on their head and gives pretty decent odds to a short-to medium term downward scenario, and this is the second leg that could bring us into the sub $2k and the third leg would be possibly in the $1500 range. Harder to go below $1500 but certainly not impossible. and even breaking below $1k is not out of the question.

I don't know how high the odds to play out the full extent of the second leg or the third leg, because matters can reverse too.. and it is not obvious that other coins would have a reverse correlation to bitcoin's price, but some might, such as ETH...

So you've sold?

Contrary to your assertions and innuendos, I do not talk my book.

I just provide my opinion about price direction and probabilities that I consider possible to play out.

I am talking down now, and downward possibilities because that seems to be the current direction and momentum.

I don't change my strategy very much because I tend to practice incrementalism.

Actually, I had considered selling about 5% of my holdings earlier in the day, but I was not able to consider what my plan would have been exactly in order to buy back, so I just left the matter... and stuck with the original plan.. hahahaha

(06-14-2017 06:35 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  @Satoshi I don't believe the bull run is over. The hype is real and I stated earlier in the thread at the top of the page exactly why I believe now is one of the worst possible times to sell off ETH.

Though depending on when someone bought in and for how much there's also nothing wrong with recognizing profits/gains now. I simply believe that due to the factors I mentioned earlier regarding the imminent Bitcoin fork, influx of press and attention around ETH, the EEA support, and the "flippening" that ETH will continue to rise toward $500 before year's end and possibly before the summer ends. A price drop now doesn't phase me too much to be honest because I'm bullish on ETH long term. Price drops like today just give me another chance to buy more (which I did buy more at 330 about 40 minutes ago).

I'm pretty optimistic about that but only time will tell.

I seem to have missed one of your posts. Ok I see, google trends, media attention and bitcoin hard fork seem to be your arguments for why ETH is a good buy right now. I'm not really convinced though. I'm not holding any ETH and I'm considering shorting but I do not know if I dare to. Could end in tears if it actually goes to $500. However I'm not really convinced about that right now. Flipping could happen without ETH appreciating, bitcoin to depreciate would be enough. And hating on sellers isn't fair, if one wants to sell then one needs to share. Especially when a lot of this money is IPO money that needs to be sold to be of use.

(06-14-2017 06:40 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Contrary to your assertions and innuendos, I do not talk my book.

I just provide my opinion about price direction and probabilities that I consider possible to play out.

I am talking down now, and downward possibilities because that seems to be the current direction and momentum.

I don't change my strategy very much because I tend to practice incrementalism.

Actually, I had considered selling about 5% of my holdings earlier in the day, but I was not able to consider what my plan would have been exactly in order to buy back, so I just left the matter... and stuck with the original plan.. hahahaha

I just remember that you sold around $2800 when the price peaked the first time so that's why I'd think you'd sold this time too, but if you were expecting $3k+ you could've been too slow on the sell button before the price took this $500 dive and therefore not sold, right?

Well @Satoshi I bought most of my ether in the 80s and 90s. Worst case scenario I sell everything for a small profit if we dip too low.

If you read my other post I said it makes sense for some to sell now as well. Not mad at anyone recognizing gains can only justify my own behavior and opinions.

Cheers.

(06-14-2017 07:01 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  Well @Satoshi I bought most of my ether in the 80s and 90s. Worst case scenario I sell everything for a small profit if we dip too low.

If you read my other post I said it makes sense for some to sell now as well. Not mad at anyone recognizing gains can only justify my own behavior and opinions.

Cheers.

Obviously yes. You seemed quite confident in your post so I was just curious if you knew something I didn't except from google trends and falling value of bitcoin.

Cheers.

Remember way back when Circle got out of the Bitcoin business? Looks like they're now using Ethereum to facilitate cross-border payments:

Quote:Blockchain-based payments startup Circle Internet Financial on Thursday launched an international online money transfer service that allows people in the United States and Europe to send money to each other instantly and at no cost as it seeks to tear down borders in the payments world.

The new service is part of a push by the "fintech" - or financial technology - sector to compete with established financial institutions, by using digital technologies to offer cheaper and more user-friendly services, often via smartphones.

Boston-based Circle Internet operates its app-based peer-to-peer payment network using blockchain, the technology which first emerged as the system underpinning cryptocurrency bitcoin.

One of the most well-funded blockchain startups, its investors include Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Baidu Inc.

Circle Internet's international money transfer service, built on a type of blockchain called Ethereum, will allow customers to send payments between U.S. dollars, British pound sterling or euros on their mobile phones. There are no fees or foreign exchange mark-ups.

International payments, according to Circle's chief executive officer and founder, Jeremy Allaire, should not take days to be processed and should be as easy and frictionless as sending an email.

"When's the last time you sent a 'cross-border email'?" Allaire said in an interview. "The idea of cross-border payments is going to completely go away. ... Our vision is for there to be no distinction between international and domestic payments."

(06-14-2017 06:19 PM)Stun Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 05:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Just a few days ago, I had been thinking that the odds of bitcoin breaking above $3k and going to $4 to $6k were pretty good in the next 6 weeks - but this latest news kind of flips those odds on their head and gives pretty decent odds to a short-to medium term downward scenario, and this is the second leg that could bring us into the sub $2k and the third leg would be possibly in the $1500 range. Harder to go below $1500 but certainly not impossible. and even breaking below $1k is not out of the question.

I had no idea how influential Bitmain was. I had seen the announcement earlier and brushed it off.

I don't know about "influential," sometimes if certain news is played at certain times, it has a BIGGER EFFECT.

We can look back and see 8 weeks of bullish BTC prices.... 8 weeks of green candles.. that is a long streak... Sooner or later that bullishness has to have a decent sized correction... and if we get one leg of a downwards correction, then having decent and biting news (even if the news is bullshit and overplayed) can help exacerbate the downward momentum and the correction. that is kind of needed.

(06-14-2017 06:19 PM)Stun Wrote:  Is there a specific price that BTC and ETH would hold below that would cause you to think "bear" rather than "correction?"

I gotta attempt to see some humor in this question... It is a kind of repeated theme of a question, even though I doubt that you mean it as any kind of theme...


The fact of the matter is that we have had a bit more than 20 months of upwards starting from about $250 in about October 2015.

Remember the upwards from $450 starting from May 2016?

We are a bit exponential from breaking $1,000 at the new year? a bit less than 6 months of exponential.

Fuck. I don't know.

Maybe if prices go below $900 in a quick way? Then maybe we could say bearish? but seems like they would bounce back, no?

On the other hand, if we had a longer downward trend over a few months, then maybe could call bearish if we go below $1200... remember we were just at $1200, less than two months ago, so it is not really an unrealistic number to return to.. so that would not be bearish in the short term, but if it took a while to get there (like by the end of the year), we might call it bearish?

You cannot really call a change in a trend until it has a chance to play out for a while, several weeks seem to be a minimum, and more likely you could not really call it until several months passed (even though we could unwittingly be in the middle of such a reversal but it is too early to assert it as such, even though it might end up being a reversal). I am not any kind of expert, and I just sort of guess, too... and place odds, and if I say 60% about something that means I have strong feelings.. hahahaha

(06-14-2017 06:19 PM)Stun Wrote:  I was thinking holding below 2200 for BTC and below 270 for ETH for more than 24 hours would be "bad." But I pulled those numbers out of my ass based on the last 2 weeks of prices and volume, instead of any real charting.

I don't think that you need charting to come to reasonable conclusions, but think about it, trade and changes take place over several days and sometimes weeks, so you cannot come to conclusions based on some stagnation that may last for a few days.

Surely, you gotta look at the volume too, but we remain in very volatile times, so it would likely take quite a bit of effort to hold the price in place for several days, but it does not mean that the other side of the equation is going to give up to push the price in the opposite direction that it is being held.

Sure we could end up pausing at $2200, but it does not seem that we are going to get there soon. If the price is pushed in one direction, then it will rebound and then there is some up and down for a bit, so in order to rest at $2200 for a few days, we would likely need to break below $2k first (which is certainly possible, but would not be bearish, necessarily unless it stayed there for a year, perhaps?).


Of course the numbers for ETH are different than BTC, but I think that ETH could withstand even a larger correction and not be bearish - however a major problem with ETH would be that its investors are likely going to be a bit more fickle than the BTC investors.. so it is not really easy to tell, if prices for ETH were to go below $150 for an extended period, if more of the ETH investors would bail as compared with BTC.. These are really difficult kinds of things to measure - even though we can watch and attempt to refine our views about what is more probable than not.

(06-14-2017 06:19 PM)Stun Wrote:  I am guessing you'd think lower numbers would be ok, since you mentioned possible BTC below 1500 in a correction?

I attempt to prepare psychologically and in my holdings for price movements that exceed expectations, and I was kind of expecting a crash to take place around August 1 - but it could be possible that Bitmain has pushed the date of such correction sooner - however, this could be a blip too... I don't really know for sure, but even a correction below $1,500 would not pull us out of a bull market, unless it were sustained ... and I would not want to call it too quick.

Don't get me wrong, I do much better when prices are going up because I don't sell that much, and so if prices were to go below $1500, I am going to have to do some juggling of my books in order to rethink my buying strategies at that point... and then also I would have to hope that I have not blown too much of my fiat wadd, before reaching that point. On the other hand, there would be some relief involved too.. because really, think about it, we have not really had any major buying opportunities, since the price started rising from $890... So there is a bit of itching to invest that money, too.

(06-14-2017 06:58 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 06:40 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Contrary to your assertions and innuendos, I do not talk my book.

I just provide my opinion about price direction and probabilities that I consider possible to play out.

I am talking down now, and downward possibilities because that seems to be the current direction and momentum.

I don't change my strategy very much because I tend to practice incrementalism.

Actually, I had considered selling about 5% of my holdings earlier in the day, but I was not able to consider what my plan would have been exactly in order to buy back, so I just left the matter... and stuck with the original plan.. hahahaha

I just remember that you sold around $2800 when the price peaked the first time so that's why I'd think you'd sold this time too, but if you were expecting $3k+ you could've been too slow on the sell button before the price took this $500 dive and therefore not sold, right?

Nah!!!!

You seem to be just making things up based on some kind of projection of some practice that I do not engage in. You have made these kinds of assertions several times, and they are contrary to my methodology.

I tend to not change my buy and sell strategy very much - even if I expect the price to go up more. I have a plan that is already mostly in place and has been disclosed many times.

In this regard, I continue to sell as the price goes up, and even if I expect the price to continue to go up.

The same is true as the price is going down, I continue to buy, even if I expect the price to continue to go down.

I am almost like a robot, except for a bit of tweaking on the margins. For the most part, I do not try to guess the direction of the market or to time the top or bottom.

So, for example when I say that I tweak on the margins, if I think that the price is going up, then perhaps instead of selling .12 BTC, I will only sell .1BTC.. something like that. I do something similar when the price is going down.. if I expect the price to go down more, instead of buying $200, I will only buy $100, incrementally...

Every once in a while I will get a feeling that the price has moved enormously, and I will throw a little extra at it, so far mostly in the buying direction..

Gentlemen

I think this is probably one of the causes for the correction seen today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-14...nd-bitcoin

Notice who the usual suspects are in trying to push this POS legislation

Wow that is some fucking bullshit. I'm gonna share this on reddit


Here's some bullish news to balance that

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-finte...SKBN19539X

Quote:Blockchain-based payments startup Circle Internet Financial on Thursday launched an international online money transfer service that allows people in the United States and Europe to send money to each other instantly and at no cost as it seeks to tear down borders in the payments world.

The new service is part of a push by the "fintech" - or financial technology - sector to compete with established financial institutions, by using digital technologies to offer cheaper and more user-friendly services, often via smartphones.

Boston-based Circle Internet operates its app-based peer-to-peer payment network using blockchain, the technology which first emerged as the system underpinning cryptocurrency bitcoin.

One of the most well-funded blockchain startups, its investors include Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Baidu Inc.

Circle Internet's international money transfer service, built on a type of blockchain called Ethereum, will allow customers to send payments between U.S. dollars, British pound sterling or euros on their mobile phones. There are no fees or foreign exchange mark-ups.

International payments, according to Circle's chief executive officer and founder, Jeremy Allaire, should not take days to be processed and should be as easy and frictionless as sending an email.

"When's the last time you sent a 'cross-border email'?" Allaire said in an interview. "The idea of cross-border payments is going to completely go away. ... Our vision is for there to be no distinction between international and domestic payments."

Circle, which processed over $1 billion in transactions in 2016 and whose customer base increased more than 10-fold in the year up to last month, does not make money from its payments service, nor does it plan to, as it reckons consumers expect these services to be free.

"We don't think there is any money to be made in payments anymore," said Allaire. "The entire business model of extracting a toll or having time delays around the movement of value is going away completely."

Instead, the company makes money by trading bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, both on digital currency exchanges and over the counter, at a time when the value of such web-based currencies has reached record highs. Last month alone, Circle traded over $800 million in digital assets, it said in a statement.

In May the company appointed trader Daniel Matuszewski to take over its trading division, following the departure of former treasury and trading operations chief Joshua Lim, the company's head of marketing confirmed.

I think it's much more due to the proposed UAHF (user activated hard fork) that Jihan Wu of Bitmain has proposed today.

(06-14-2017 08:52 PM)booshala Wrote:  I think it's much more due to the proposed UAHF (user activated hard fork) that Jihan Wu of Bitmain has proposed today.

I don't recall any link, and her is a decent one describing the situation.


http://bitsonline.com/bitmain-plans-hard-fork-august/

In an effort to avoid taxable events is anyone trading from BTC or ETH into Litecoin? It's changes are somewhat flat and so seems ideal for this.

I think I've topped out what I feel comfortable gambling on the market at the moment. Added some litecoin to the spread. Until I do more research in my free time, which will take a bit. I just hope that I don't miss a huge event (i.e. massive increase in BTC/ETH/LTC again). But I'm having trouble seeing it as anything beyond a gamble at the moment and am thus limiting my exposure. Wish I had caught it earlier on the rise and bet the farm, but it's too late to fix now. I don't want to overcompensate by overexposing myself.

(06-14-2017 10:51 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  I think I've topped out what I feel comfortable gambling on the market at the moment. Added some litecoin to the spread. Until I do more research in my free time, which will take a bit. I just hope that I don't miss a huge event (i.e. massive increase in BTC/ETH/LTC again). But I'm having trouble seeing it as anything beyond a gamble at the moment and am thus limiting my exposure. Wish I had caught it earlier on the rise and bet the farm, but it's too late to fix now. I don't want to overcompensate by overexposing myself.

I know that sometimes people can come off as pumpers, pimps or pushers, but please don't take my response that way because I am more than willing to accept that you have considered your own finances and decided that cryptos are too confusing.

On the other hand, there is a bit of a conflicting message in your post.

When it comes to these kind of finances, we can create varying approaches, and your description sounds like gambling, rather than investing (or you would like to get rich quick, otherwise you cannot be bothered), so in that sense, maybe you have already overinvested in crypto, for your own risk tolerance or finances?

Frequently, I suggest some kind of moderate and conservative approach that would allow you to invest up to 1% of your total liquid investment assets (or possibly more depending on your situation) - and then employ a kind of dollar cost averaging in order to arrive at your designated kind of allocation, which means initially getting there, and then maintaining.

Maybe you have already gone too far? Some people will go up to 10% of their liquid assets, but surely, like you suggest there can be a considerable amount of discomfort if you feel that you do not know enough about the asset class and you are trying to figure out how to apportion yourself within in.. so in that regard, throw up your hands, right?

Anyhow you are coming off as a bit torn that you don't want to be overinvested in crypto, but at the same time you don't want to miss out on some possible future price appreciation. Do you mind disclosing a bit more regarding why you seem to have communicated that kind of dilemma in your post?

(06-14-2017 11:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I know that sometimes people can come off as pumpers, pimps or pushers, but please don't take my response that way.

When it comes to these kind of finances, we can create varying approaches, and your description sounds like gambling, rather than investing (or you would like to get rich quick, otherwise you cannot be bothered), so in that sense, maybe you have already overinvested?

Frequently, I suggest some kind of moderate and conservative approach that would allow you to invest up to 1% of your total liquid investment assets - and then employ a kind of dollar cost averaging in order to arrive at that kind of allocation, which means initially getting there, and then maintaining. Maybe you have already gone too far? Some people will go up to 10%, but surely, like you suggest there can be a considerable amount of discomfort if you feel that you do not know enough about the asset class and you are trying to figure out how to apportion within in.. so in that regard, throw up your hands, right?

Anyhow you are coming off as a bit torn that you don't want to be overinvested, but at the same time you don't want to miss out on some price appreciation. Do you mind disclosing a bit more regarding why you seem to have communicated that kind of dilemma in your post?

No worries at all.

Here are my thoughts:

I'm pretty ignorant of trading. Most of my experience has been in getting extra money through employment by 401k matching, which limits me to mostly hands-off mutuals, and I'm finding myself sitting on enough cash to try to figure out what to do with it. I.e. more than I need if I lost my job tomorrow (low probability) and had to pay rent for a year or more.

My thoughts, in general, are long on cryptos after reading J.Orlin Grabbe's The End of Ordinary Money many years before this forum existed.

That said, I've seen wild swings on the market when I first got into putting money into the market.

For example, one of my grandparents left me a decent investment bond that matured in my mid-late teens. That was invested in the stock market. I saw it rise up rapidly to 8x my initial buy and then crash. For years it didn't improve beyond that.

I'm just keenly aware of my ignorance in trading because I just don't have a good framework to understand it and I saw what can happen. So, I'm gun shy at putting too much money down. Everything I put in I'm comfortable with losing, as I still have other money floating around. But, I want to expose myself to as much positive risk as possible. That point has been reached for now until I further my knowledge of this area.

One of my solutions is learning the basics of it all over again. From a technical standpoint, I understand what's going on better than average. It's the trading part I know that I'm mostly clueless on and generally cautious. Hence my "gambling" statement as I feel I don't know what I'm doing.



https://www.memresearch.org/grabbe/money1.htm

Ethereum ‘Blockchain Bloat’ Could Reach 1TB In 2017
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-...tb-in-2017

Quote:Ethereum’s (ETH) blockchain is now larger than Bitcoin’s at around 180 gigabytes, with experts warning further increases may spell disaster.
..
Continued upward trajectory could see the biggest altcoin’s blockchain hit one terabyte before 2018, making syncing a seriously unwieldy business.

"Based on that, the chain is projected to be over 1Tb in less than 12 months. If it continues that growth rate it'll die; space = $$$$"
— David Keenleyside (@Nuke_Bloodaxe)

I haven't heard much about this but this is pretty concerning. In 2 years it will likely be closer to 3 TB. Eventually it will be so big only certain computers can handle the block chain. And then just like banking, power is concentrated in just a few people's hands.

(06-14-2017 04:49 PM)Darkwing Buck Wrote:  Where's the guy who predicted the correction? We're at $340 right now I'm sweating a little bit but obviously gonna hold considering I'm not a trader and I predict long term we will hit $500 before year's end.

But still a bit unsettling though every single crypto other than zcash is in red right now. Also could be market manipulation/whales going on. Who knows I'm not that smart.

Hold on tight boys!

EDIT: And it's already up to 345 again. Rollercoaster today haha. In reality no point worrying over hourly fluctuations unless it stretches over several days. Can't let greed and shortsightedness get the best of us though I know a lot of long term holders on reddit have sold to realize their gains. Ethereum has definitely made some millionaires.

That was me. My guess is we don't clear 400 for a while now (in crypto "a while" means more than a few days....) Based on tech analysis alone all pressure looks downward with pretty big resistance at 400ish. Support looks strong enough at 350, but wouldn't be surprised if we fall to the 270 range.

There might be some big announcement or whatever that might change that, I'm not really clued up on that stuff.

I am holding.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 11:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [edited out]

No worries at all.

Here are my thoughts:

I'm pretty ignorant of trading. Most of my experience has been in getting extra money through employment by 401k matching, which limits me to mostly hands-off mutuals,

Sometimes it is not necessary to get into too much of our financial details, but surely I understand the concept of 401k - because I had one for quite a considerable amount of time, and the matching part is great, and the maxing it out is great, too. I did both of those in the past, and I still have my 401k in a status in which I cannot add to it, but I can move the funds around in it, if needed.

Sure, 401ks are going to vary, but they tend to be limited in the number of financial vehicles in which they can be moved or allocated, but they can still be a good investment to have on the side whether you are actively putting money into it or just have it as a side investment.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  and I'm finding myself sitting on enough cash to try to figure out what to do with it. I.e. more than I need if I lost my job tomorrow (low probability) and had to pay rent for a year or more.

Yep... I can relate to that, too, and not a bad position to be. And, in that regard, you already know how much you have available for possible investment, and it is merely a matter of figuring out how to allocate it or just to keep it in cash (just in case for some possible opportunity that might come along). I also get a bit fidgety with cash, too, because sometimes you want to be able to put some of that cash to work.. but at the same time, it is not good to attempt to put it to work, and then end up losing it.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  My thoughts, in general, are long on cryptos after reading J.Orlin Grabbe's The End of Ordinary Money many years before this forum existed.

That said, I've seen wild swings on the market when I first got into putting money into the market.

For example, one of my grandparents left me a decent investment bond that matured in my mid-late teens. That was invested in the stock market. I saw it rise up rapidly to 8x my initial buy and then crash. For years it didn't improve beyond that.

I have done some rough averaging out my various investments over 30 years (not including crypto), and I have won some and lost some, but the average per year is about 5.5%. My crypto might be way too short term to measure, but it is certainly outpacing my other investments, but short term and some luck and maybe still to be determined how I play it out?

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  I'm just keenly aware of my ignorance in trading because I just don't have a good framework to understand it and I saw what can happen.

I first got into crypto in late 2013, and I did not begin trading or attempting to trade until late 2015.

Or, at least I believe that I was not trading. My first year was just dollar cost averaging accumulation. Either trading came as an afterthought or possibly was a logical outgrowth of my initial investing and allocation framework.

so, it seems that you do not have to trade to get in, and most of us understand the concept of dollar cost averaging, no? Just take a certain amount $10 per week and invest it into whatever crypto or combination of cryptos that you believe to be long term viable (and hopefully long term profitable)

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  So, I'm gun shy at putting too much money down.

That is fair, and that is one of the advantages of crypto. Once you establish an account, there are some places that we will let you do as little as $5 transactions. So you can allocate as much as you want on whatever timeline you want. When you are initially investing, I recommend weekly allocations rather than monthly, and you could go so far as do 2-3 times per week, just to begin to accumulate and attempt to learn by playing around with it.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  Everything I put in I'm comfortable with losing, as I still have other money floating around.

Certainly, you want to make sure that you have enough money to live on, because I have seen situations in which guys have to withdraw their crypto at inopportune times because they had not planned ahead with their cashflow (certainly a sign of over investing).

I usually project my cash flow at least 6 months in advance and sometimes I project two years in advance... and sometimes, it is difficult to see how things play out, unless you project ahead a bit.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  But, I want to expose myself to as much positive risk as possible. That point has been reached for now until I further my knowledge of this area.

O.k.... even though you did not give a number, you have determined your own level of tolerance.. fair enough about that.

(06-14-2017 11:15 PM)philosophical_recovery Wrote:  One of my solutions is learning the basics of it all over again. From a technical standpoint, I understand what's going on better than average. It's the trading part I know that I'm mostly clueless on and generally cautious. Hence my "gambling" statement as I feel I don't know what I'm doing.

https://www.memresearch.org/grabbe/money1.htm

You are kind of getting back to the same point... trading.

So if you have an entry point, and a certain dollar cost average, then you might establish what your exit points might be.

When I first started investing, I was in the accumulation phase, so I just continued to buy as the price went down, so I did not have any plan for selling, as long as the price was going down. I only developed my plan for selling when the price started to go up.

So, if you got in at a price that is higher than the current price, then you might just wait it out, or continue to buy in increments. On the other hand, if your average cost per crypto is lower than the current price, then you consider what your exit points might be? At 50% 100% 2x? or merely if the price is 10% up?

But if the price is changing rapidly, including dropping, as it is doing as I type, you may have to consider or reconsider what your future entry points might be.. That's understandable, too.

In other news Bitcoin looks set to tumble. A lot of lower highs and lower lows. I think we'll see $2,100 again.

Anyone using tether wallet for trading into USDT? I tried to sign up by my location is restricted.

Is this the big bubble burst we've been expecting? Ethereum down ~25% from its high.

287/ETH and dropping fast. This is insane. I'm tempted to sell to be honest but I know I should hold.

My nerves are being tested.

EDIT: Well it's 11:30 west coast time. Dropped down to 285 and within 90 seconds shot up to 310. Looks like the support kicked in as soon as it hit 300.

Now at 312. I'm really surprised to see the price fluctuations this late at night. Typically it seems to settle between 6pm-8pm western time. Interesting. Wonder what's truly going on.

^ Look for it to trade consistently below $340. If so, we will probably tumble quite a bit. Otherwise expect a bounce back. My guess.

Edit: Didn't realize we'd already hit $300. Sticking with my call of support above $270 (I hope).