Post: #901

My point is that I don't buy "we're just gonna rise peacefully" story. They'll rise peacefully as long as everyone around them makes unreasonable concessions in their favor, but Chinese have never been against cracking some skulls to take what they want. That leads me to linger firmly in the "don't trust 'em" camp. I don't expect USA to do much of anything, but I don't blame the other countries in that region for being suspicious of China. Nor do I blame men in this thread for maintaining a healthy skepticism when it comes to Chinese intentions. It's never philanthropic. Do they even have a word for that in Chinese?

Post: #902

(04-30-2018 11:30 AM)Fortis Wrote:  My point is that I don't buy "we're just gonna rise peacefully" story. They'll rise peacefully as long as everyone around them makes unreasonable concessions in their favor, but Chinese have never been against cracking some skulls to take what they want. That leads me to linger firmly in the "don't trust 'em" camp. I don't expect USA to do much of anything, but I don't blame the other countries in that region for being suspicious of China. Nor do I blame men in this thread for maintaining a healthy skepticism when it comes to Chinese intentions. It's never philanthropic. Do they even have a word for that in Chinese?

Inside China yes. They have treated their own people like shit for centuries like a generational curse. Show me an example of cracking skulls outside China. They could very well box someone out financially somehow.

Until someone can show me real proof of physical aggression of the modern Chinese state against non-Chinese. I refuse to buy notions of foreign conquesting on any level without some semblance of proof and notions based on what other cultures and peoples like to do. It's almost as if culture and history does not exist nor does it influence foreign policy.

Soft power is still power. Locking out markets and dominating assets is completely different from physical escalations in terms of foreign policy. By now it is 2018. The amount of past empires failed over standard "overreach" are too many to count if you got back to even ancient times. What empires are foolish enough to do such a thing now, that has no real incentive to do so? What about state actors that do not use the empire model of any variant? Samseau himself admitted that we Americans still have an empire, we just puppet our territories, which is true. Does China even have those? If not, where would they start? Would they ever go outside their own historical territories? For a land with nearly 5000 years worth of history, you cannot even find examples within the last 2000 years of such behavior. The country is 9.6 sq km large. the 4th largest on Earth. Some of the reason Russia has alot of the historical borders it had, has a lot to do with the land mass itself. China has already gone through the communist phase, still wasn't enough to expand out. Russia looked down on China for bastardizing their brand of Communism, Mao laughed and didn't give a shit. Japan became imperialist because they did not have much room to grow in. Still don't.

I think people make a flaw in reasoning and a logic error in assuming all state actors spill out past their borders knocking heads as if it is a given. You can find examples in history of states flowing with wealth and power, but never expand much, if at all out until they collapse. I think alot of the reason why few can even write decent analysis about China is because China is just as much of a concept as it is a country, an ethnicity, and a culture. If you think China is so bad, you haven't seen shit. When they ever get around to doing bank loans at .05% interest, watch how fast the Globalists surround them with the millitaries of other countries. The concept of usury is disgusting to the Chinese. Should they choose to share their style, they will get dealt with. You can count on that. If they acquire enough foreign currency holdings, they could collapse the global banking markets overnight if they wanted to.

Post: #903

I suspect the Chinese will support de-nuclearizing N. Korea, but not unifying the peninsula, because they use N. Korea as a buffer to put some distance between their mainland and Western forces.

Post: #904

All we can do is speculate at this point. No idea how the two Korea's will unify at this point, but the end to constant war there will be a great thing. Kind of crazy that this war is what created half my bloodline, and finally it comes to a close. Almost took 3 generations, now that my friends is a war.

After 6 decades of war, I know the Koreans won't be looking for a fight anytime soon. If I made any guess, both America and China will scale back their military operations there as the Koreans enjoy their peacetime. It is historically improbable for wars to occur again after 60 years of war.

People will chillax as the details of Korea's integration is worked on, and foreign policy will return to the Middle East, which continues to be a shit show.

China won't bother with military force on it's immediate borders, they will instead focus on colonizing Africa. Since the US will indeed ramp up a trade war as the battle for money grows. China isn't suicidal enough to start a war with the USA, however, and as they cannot count on having the USA as a place to sell cheap shit, I think China will turn to exploiting Africa to keep GDP up. They will be able to do the same things the USA once did to China: exploit cheap labor in Africa to resell back to middle class Chinese.

Post: #905

(05-02-2018 04:47 PM)Samseau Wrote:  All we can do is speculate at this point. No idea how the two Korea's will unify at this point, but the end to constant war there will be a great thing. Kind of crazy that this war is what created half my bloodline, and finally it comes to a close. Almost took 3 generations, now that my friends is a war.

After 6 decades of war, I know the Koreans won't be looking for a fight anytime soon. If I made any guess, both America and China will scale back their military operations there as the Koreans enjoy their peacetime. It is historically improbable for wars to occur again after 60 years of war.

People will chillax as the details of Korea's integration is worked on, and foreign policy will return to the Middle East, which continues to be a shit show.

China won't bother with military force on it's immediate borders, they will instead focus on colonizing Africa. Since the US will indeed ramp up a trade war as the battle for money grows. China isn't suicidal enough to start a war with the USA, however, and as they cannot count on having the USA as a place to sell cheap shit, I think China will turn to exploiting Africa to keep GDP up. They will be able to do the same things the USA once did to China: exploit cheap labor in Africa to resell back to middle class Chinese.

Money battles. I like that. That is perfect and encapsulates the trend correctly.

Money wars are the future. Getting physical is like fighting at a party. You loose points with the females (lesser states). Real alphas demonstrate value without getting violent. That is the future indeed.

Russia better watch out. The US and China getting competitive will have consequences directly and indirectly with Russia. If China and the US cooperate more, Russia will be in serious trouble and risk getting contained hardcore. If I were Putin, I would dump money into things that are not weapons systems now so that later they will have things of value to export for good money.

Post: #906

The Big Meeting is taking place June 12 in Singapore

Post: #907

(04-30-2018 03:11 PM)C-Note Wrote:  I suspect the Chinese will support de-nuclearizing N. Korea, but not unifying the peninsula, because they use N. Korea as a buffer to put some distance between their mainland and Western forces.

My understanding is that the whole appeal of this approach for KJU is to stay in power as NK opens up. He can spin the transition as the natural thing that his Father and Grandfather would have done, now that the policy of Juche has made NK strong and independent enough to stand alone against the greatest powers on Earth

To a considerable extent, he's right. As the young ruler who inherited his family dynasty, if he manages a gradual opening of NK, and protects the NK citizens from the worst excesses of a sudden upending of their economy, he really will have done well for his people.

I don't think SK wants to fund an expensive effort to feed and support everybody in NK while they rebuild the whole economy to modern standards. SK will be happy to let NK remain as a separate country, with significant restrictions to control and manage their opening to the rest of the world.

We'll see how it plays out, but I expect NK to stay separate for a very long time.

Post: #908

Bang North Korea?

Come on guys, somebody has to be planning a trip.

Post: #909

^ I'm not into Asian girls, but I do plan on going to NK once it opens up. It will probably be similar to the situation in the now-FSU and East Germany c. 1990-1994.

Post: #910

The BBC is reporting that North Korea has 'abruptly' cancelled talks with the South and warned the USA about the future of the Trump-Kim summit. This is apparently due to the usual US-South Korean joint military exercises taking place.

I'm not one to worry about upsetting belligerent regimes, but Christ, with this much progress on the table, couldn't they have given the war games a rest for once?

Post: #911

That’s just it, they didn’t seem to do anything out if the ordinary. But nk can just say at any point”you keep threatening us!” And bail

Post: #912

The exotic-factor in North Korea is gonna be sky high when the airport opens up. Get ready to experience South Korean 30 years ago when the world is not inter-connected bros

Post: #913

(05-15-2018 04:23 PM)Praetor Lupus Wrote:  The BBC is reporting that North Korea has 'abruptly' cancelled talks with the South and warned the USA about the future of the Trump-Kim summit. This is apparently due to the usual US-South Korean joint military exercises taking place.

I'm not one to worry about upsetting belligerent regimes, but Christ, with this much progress on the table, couldn't they have given the war games a rest for once?

Kim wants some more attention. He feels slighted by the big smoke over in the Levant. Let him do some posturing, it will help both him and Trump. I am 100% certain that there are already some back channel talks happening with Kim and that he is taking this all quite well.

It feels like a kid who is just a little too excited for Christmas that he starts trying to sabotage the whole thing. A little bit of Hennessy might go a long way here.

Post: #914

(05-15-2018 04:23 PM)Praetor Lupus Wrote:  I'm not one to worry about upsetting belligerent regimes, but Christ, with this much progress on the table, couldn't they have given the war games a rest for once?

Yup. Kim's not dumb. He saw what happened to Saddam and Gaddafi. You can't trust the US government. One day they sign an agreement with you, and the next day your country is being bombed.

Post: #915

(05-15-2018 04:23 PM)Praetor Lupus Wrote:  The BBC is reporting that North Korea has 'abruptly' cancelled talks with the South and warned the USA about the future of the Trump-Kim summit. This is apparently due to the usual US-South Korean joint military exercises taking place.

I'm not one to worry about upsetting belligerent regimes, but Christ, with this much progress on the table, couldn't they have given the war games a rest for once?

Nope, I say business as usual. Kim and his regime is used to playing these games. Pretend to be nice, get some concessions and then back to doing what he was doing.

Rinse and repeat.

We really don't know if he is serious or just playing the same games. No reason to stop doing what we are doing until Kim shows he is serious.

Post: #916

(04-30-2018 12:58 PM)TravelerKai Wrote:  Inside China yes. They have treated their own people like shit for centuries like a generational curse. Show me an example of cracking skulls outside China. They could very well box someone out financially somehow.

Until someone can show me real proof of physical aggression of the modern Chinese state against non-Chinese. I refuse to buy notions of foreign conquesting on any level without some semblance of proof and notions based on what other cultures and peoples like to do. It's almost as if culture and history does not exist nor does it influence foreign policy.

Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Korea, the Philippines, Myanmar, Russia, etc.?

Even if we ignore the proxy wars, the border wars, the many Chinese-backed insurgencies, the drug trafficking, the arms dealing, etc., there is the issue of China building military installations on the sovereign territory of multiple countries and seeking to control international waters in the present day.

Of course, when someone like Duterte speaks out against this, the Maoist insurgents in the Philippines coincidentally choose to break their ceasefire with the government and intensify fighting. At least China graciously offered to fund rehab centers to help with the drug epidemic fueled by Chinese nationals.

Much of the Chinese diaspora's economic dominance in Southeast Asia was built through their role in trading with Islamic pirates/slavers, then war profiteering and arms dealing, then drug trafficking. You cannot avoid this fact when reading through the history of any of their neighbors.

Post: #917

When you have John Bolton with one hand on the wheel.....

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/05/nor...mands.html

Quote:North Korea was already ready to negotiate. It were not the sanctions that brought it to the table. It was its new status as a nuclear power. The Trump administration never understood that. It believed that its "maximum pressure" campaign brought North Korea to offer "complete denuclearization". North Korea used that wording but it was meant as an aspirational aim for the whole world, not a unilateral disarmament of its new capabilities.

The Trump administration did not get it - or did not want to get it. This was partly out of stupidity and lack of knowledge, it was partly mischievous:

Trump and others are presenting this process as a route that leads to North Korea’s disarmament — even though Kim has said nothing that deviates from statements that every North Korean leader has made. And in our collective self-delusion, we have a surprising cheerleader: national security advisor John Bolton.
It is worth asking why Bolton is busy giving interviews in which he raises hopes for a complete elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons that can occur in a matter of months. He has repeatedly called for a “Libya style” deal — one in which the United States simply shows up and collects the weapons and supporting infrastructure.
...
This is madness. There is no reason to think that Kim has any intention of agreeing to such a thing.
...
Bolton isn’t suddenly naive. He’s working an angle. And that angle is almost certainly misaligning the president’s expectations. Bolton won’t try to kill diplomacy by opposing it. Rather he’ll kill it by making the perfect the enemy of the good. By raising the prospects of a Libya-style surrender, the much more modest settlement offered by Kim looks sad by comparison.

This is a very cynical — and dangerous — game that Bolton and others are playing.

Post: #918

All part and parcel of Trump's gamble: using the neocons and Israelis as a shield to protect him from the Deep State. Some eggs will be broken along the way by such thuggish bodyguards, but it's Trump's strategy to make it to 8 years.

Post: #919

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/no...bt/9767042

Doesn't really look like Trump has a negotiation tone to dismantling North Korea. It's more of a demanding tone, I wonder how this will turn out for an egocentric guy like Kim. If Trump really does meet with Kim it'll be one of the most interesting events this lifetime.

Post: #920

Worthwhile viewing - Grand Solar Minimum-induced crop losses and potential army walk-out are likely the key factors in North Korea's willingness to denuke, receive aid, and prevent a massive humanitarian crisis there and in neighboring countries (like China and South Korea).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLjNX4pd8p8&app=desktop

Post: #921

Interesting how Trump handled the perception of "rejection". Now North Korea has to have the summit on June 12 to save face.

As long as he understands its effectively 2 countries negotiating as one (China and North Korea)......I am impressed with the cancellation letter and its timing. High risk, high reward.

Post: #922

(05-27-2018 09:29 AM)ivansirko Wrote:  Interesting how Trump handled the perception of "rejection". Now North Korea has to have the summit on June 12 to save face.

As long as he understands its effectively 2 countries negotiating as one (China and North Korea)......I am impressed with the cancellation letter and its timing. High risk, high reward.

Definitely following this story to see it's developments.

I also currently at SEAsia and considering if I should go to Singapore at June 10 just to see what up, up close.

Post: #923

As far as I am aware, the 2 past leaders of the DPRK (Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il), very rarely went anywhere by airplane while they were in power and mostly limited their foreign travels to train trips to China and Russia.

In my opinion, it's very unlikley that Kim Jong-un will get on an airplane to Singapore or fly anywhere else for that matter. Even Kim's right hand man Kim Yong Chol who recenty went to on a visit to the USA and met Trump, traveled there on a Air China airplane rather than a DPRK (Air Koryo ?) airliner.

Kim may however consider a trip to Switzerland. The country where he went to school as a child for several years.
Also, neutral Switzerland would be a much better venue for a peace summit.
In theory Kim could get there by train as well...though it would take him 3 or 4 days of non-stop travelling from the Korean peninsula.

Mongolia is also a "neutral" option for a summit.

I'd be very surprised if Kim actually really does go to Singapore by airplane.

Post: #924

How did he get to Switzerland as a kid? By train?

Post: #925

(06-01-2018 02:09 PM)Mercenary Wrote:  As far as I am aware, the 2 past leaders of the DPRK (Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il), very rarely went anywhere by airplane while they were in power and mostly limited their foreign travels to train trips to China and Russia.

In my opinion, it's very unlikley that Kim Jong-un will get on an airplane to Singapore or fly anywhere else for that matter. Even Kim's right hand man Kim Yong Chol who recenty went to on a visit to the USA and met Trump, traveled there on a Air China airplane rather than a DPRK (Air Koryo ?) airliner.

Kim may however consider a trip to Switzerland. The country where he went to school as a child for several years.
Also, neutral Switzerland would be a much better venue for a peace summit.
In theory Kim could get there by train as well...though it would take him 3 or 4 days of non-stop travelling from the Korean peninsula.

Mongolia is also a "neutral" option for a summit.

I'd be very surprised if Kim actually really does go to Singapore by airplane.

I doubt this would be sticking factor. He can train it most of the way there. Even if he has to take a boat from Ho Chi Minh to Bangkok or even directly to Singapore, its not a difficult mission. His entourage is likely significant, so even a charter plane is cheap when this is taken into account.