Post: #551

(05-05-2017 02:38 AM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  Let's get this thread back to something coherent please?

....

Timing matters in negotiations. President Xi is vulnerable during the run up to the 19th Party Congress in autumn 2017 – and dearly wants to avoid trouble with the Americans.
A top-notch negotiator knows this is the time to push hard for China’s help with North Korea. After the Party Congress and if Xi gets his people in place, China will be far less inclined to strike a deal — or at least one the Americans want.
Xi only needs to play for time, and with the proper mix of flattery and ‘bait’ looks like he might succeed.
Trump’s recent claim of having a “very good personal relationship” with Xi and that China’s president “is doing everything in his power to help (with North Korea)” suggests Xi has done a good job of handling the master negotiator in the White House.

I'm not sure this analysis is correct. The author knows China, but I don't think he knows Trump. Remember Trump's "biggest weakness" he mentioned during the debate:

Quote: "I trust people too much," the Donald answered with his usual conviction. "And when they let me down, if they let me down, I never forgive. I find it very, very hard to forgive people that deceived me."

We've seen this play out time and time again. Trump plays fair until he feels his opponents are not playing fair. Then he stops playing fair too, and what remains is usually a smoking hole in the ground. (Witness the remains of "Lyin' Ted"'s political future if you need a reminder of what this process looks like.)

If Trump tries to trade concessions on trade or those south sea islands for help with North Korea, and then doesn't get the help with North Korea, then China will have seriously angered him, and they will find this is not to their benefit. They can't stall him for 4 years.

As for the idea that Trump's calling Xi "a good friend" means anything, this also demonstrates a rather poor understanding of how Trump operates. Trump says nice things about everybody, because saying nice things is free. Trump loves no-cost gestures of goodwill. Remember his meetings with Al Gore and Mitt Romney?

Of course, if the linked article is intended as a warning to Trump and his people, it's not going to include information like this. But as an analysis of the situation I think it falls short.

Post: #552

^ Thank you SamuelBRoberts for your assessment.

I am a little on the fence. You raise up some good points and Trump is certainly not your average politician. I truly despise those who say they are "experts" who know better. I know this author reasonably well, and he is certainly not of that sort and is holistically more of a Trump fan than not. Particularly because he sees potential for a strong US presence and counter to China.

The problem he points out, which is valid, is that if history is any guide, Trump's compromises are certainly going to backfire, as they have already to China, and this will put the US in a very tight spot. Once the US loses it's foothold in Asia, it will be very difficult to get it back. Maybe impossible.

That's what the author was communicating, was that Trump should be under no illussions about China. There is no grand deal to be struck with them, it is only a ruse where one side (the US) eventually loses.

Once Trump wisens up to China down the road becaues it's obcvious he's been played, the US will be in a sever position of weakness and possibly unable to recover. The author is reccomending Trump wise up sooner than later. It's sound advice in my opinion.

Post: #553

(05-05-2017 11:41 AM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  The problem he points out, which is valid, is that if history is any guide, Trump's compromises are certainly going to backfire, as they have already to China, and this will put the US in a very tight spot. Once the US loses it's foothold in Asia, it will be very difficult to get it back. Maybe impossible.

I agree that losing our foothold in Asia is probably bad for the US (I'm coming around to the opinion that we should probably just leave anyway and let the Asians handle their own problems, but I haven't fully thought this out yet so let's stick with that as our premise.) But if that's the case, what is happening in Asia that's going to cause us to lose our foothold? Our influence in Asia isn't dependent on those stupid islands the Chinese are taking.

Put into broad terms, I think the US foothold in Asia can be defined by these three things:
1.) Positive relationships with the majority of the Asian economies: Japan, SK, to a lesser degree the Philippines, etc. Maybe India depending on how loose you want to get with your definitions.
2.) Our military presence in Japan and SK.
3.) Heavy trade ties with all Asian economies.

My head's still a little foggy this morning so I might be missing something, but any list is going to look something like that.

What is going to happen in the next four years that's going to weaken any of these things? If anything, our foothold in Asia has been greatly strengthened over the past 4 months as Trump's been patching up relationships with Duterte in the Phillipines. Obama was up in his ass over some human rights bullshit, and threatening to drive him right into China's arms, but Trump seems to have totally reversed that trend.

Ironically, one thing that could weaken the US's presence in Asia would be a successful resolution to the North Korean mess, which would deprive the US's SK bases of their raison d'etre in a time when the US is looking to make budget cuts. If China wanted to decrease the US's influence in Asia, one way to do it would be giving Trump exactly what he wants.

Post: #554

I guess you guys don't get the Honolulu Star Advertiser?

Apparently, the CIA tried to kill Kim Jong Un.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/05/05...n-attempt/

They were unsuccessful.

Aloha!

Post: #555

(05-05-2017 04:06 PM)Kona Wrote:  I guess you guys don't get the Honolulu Star Advertiser?
Apparently, the CIA tried to kill Kim Jong Un.
http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/05/05...n-attempt/
They were unsuccessful.

According to North Korean state run media, which has kind of a sketchy track record for reliability. This doesn't mean it's not true, just that the source is so horribly unreliable that there's no way to know if it's true or not.

Quote:The ministry said the spy agencies in June 2014 “ideologically corrupted and bribed” a North Korean citizen who was working in Russia to carry out the alleged assassination on Kim after returning home.

It said South Korean agents gave money and satellite communication equipment to the North Korean to attack Kim during a public event using a biochemical weapon such as a delayed-action radioactive or “nano poisonous” substance.

Post: #556

Trump saying he has a good relationship with his 'friend" Mr Xi is just sugar coating the surface like he has always done. You don't go to the negotiation table after calling him a snake eyed communist liar now do you?

You shake hands, discuss things - difficult topics included, and where both parties can save face and get what they want. The people behind Xi will be purged once he is gone so now is the best time to deal with this annoying shit for brains turd in North Korea.

China is steadily distancing itself and has military preparations underway like the US and South Korea, including the Russians. China gets to keep NK, its resources and gets rid of a pain in the ass so it can move forward with agitating the rest of Asia.

SK and the US get that fat child out of power and look good and decisive.

The only problem here is how quickly it could all go sideways. They will need to launch a massive attack on all fronts to stop a wave of artillery and missiles hitting South Korea, something we haven't seen since WW2.

Post: #557

(05-05-2017 11:58 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

(05-05-2017 11:41 AM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  The problem he points out, which is valid, is that if history is any guide, Trump's compromises are certainly going to backfire, as they have already to China, and this will put the US in a very tight spot. Once the US loses it's foothold in Asia, it will be very difficult to get it back. Maybe impossible.

I agree that losing our foothold in Asia is probably bad for the US (I'm coming around to the opinion that we should probably just leave anyway and let the Asians handle their own problems, but I haven't fully thought this out yet so let's stick with that as our premise.) But if that's the case, what is happening in Asia that's going to cause us to lose our foothold? Our influence in Asia isn't dependent on those stupid islands the Chinese are taking.

Put into broad terms, I think the US foothold in Asia can be defined by these three things:
1.) Positive relationships with the majority of the Asian economies: Japan, SK, to a lesser degree the Philippines, etc. Maybe India depending on how loose you want to get with your definitions.
2.) Our military presence in Japan and SK.
3.) Heavy trade ties with all Asian economies.

My head's still a little foggy this morning so I might be missing something, but any list is going to look something like that.

What is going to happen in the next four years that's going to weaken any of these things? If anything, our foothold in Asia has been greatly strengthened over the past 4 months as Trump's been patching up relationships with Duterte in the Phillipines. Obama was up in his ass over some human rights bullshit, and threatening to drive him right into China's arms, but Trump seems to have totally reversed that trend.

Ironically, one thing that could weaken the US's presence in Asia would be a successful resolution to the North Korean mess, which would deprive the US's SK bases of their raison d'etre in a time when the US is looking to make budget cuts. If China wanted to decrease the US's influence in Asia, one way to do it would be giving Trump exactly what he wants.

Thanks again for a solid and well thought out reply (while hungover no less! )

A few thoughts:

I am also largely of the opinion we should draw back from Asia, adopt a true America First policy. That means economically too so pulling economically away from China wholesale. But that's another topic for another day. To the points at hand....

- "Stupid Islands" in the South China Sea? That's a very dismissive assesment. China gaining hegemony over that area increases it's economic, political, and military leverage across the entire region. This is our loss, because the other weaker states have no counterbalance without outside US leadership, and will get sucked into China's orbit. Any trade deal, any international agreement the Chinese wants to make now is easier for them. There is not just an arbitrary reason 6 countries are so interested in that area. Our influence is not dependent, but it is HEAVILY affected by that.

- Aside from positive rhetoric towards Trump, what evidence is there that our relationship with Philipines has even recovered to a pre-Obama era? Duterte has warmed up to China in ways that were unthinkable even 5 years ago. This is not only Obama's fault but a generation of poor policy, yet it is that way today. I'm not doubting you, just saying I don't think much has been regained other than Duterte isn't openly antagonistic towards the US. He still embraces China to the point that he may not even accept Trumps invitation to visit. Considering the Historical military, cultural, and economic ties between the US and PI, this is absolutely unprecedented. You said Trump has "totally reversed" that Trend. That well may be the case but I have to see hard evidence backing that up besides Rhetoric, whereas the actual foreign policy shift around military and economic engagement with China is still growing, as evidenced by their aquiescing their claims of the South China Sea to the Chinese. That was unthinkable just a few years ago.

- I'm not so convinced a resolution is in China's best interest to the NK problem, as was stated in the article. I think they assume that if NK collapses, our US forces will simply stay on the peninsula as a kind of stabilizing force for the region, and now there is no buffer between China and US forces. Why the hell do we still have NATO after the Soviet Union fell?

***FIN***

Post: #558

(05-05-2017 05:05 PM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  A few thoughts:

I am also largely of the opinion we should draw back from Asia, adopt a true America First policy. That means economically too so pulling economically away from China wholesale. But that's another topic for another day. To the points at hand....

- "Stupid Islands" in the South China Sea? That's a very dismissive assesment. China gaining hegemony over that area increases it's economic, political, and military leverage across the entire region. This is our loss, because the other weaker states have no counterbalance without outside US leadership, and will get sucked into China's orbit. Any trade deal, any international agreement the Chinese wants to make now is easier for them. There is not just an arbitrary reason 6 countries are so interested in that area. Our influence is not dependent, but it is HEAVILY affected by that.

I think the issue with the islands has been overblown (There's a reason that these things have been sitting mostly untouched for ages). But there's a whole other thread for discussing China's island antics so I think it's best not to discuss this here.

Quote:- Aside from positive rhetoric towards Trump, what evidence is there that our relationship with Philipines has even recovered to a pre-Obama era? Duterte has warmed up to China in ways that were unthinkable even 5 years ago. This is not only Obama's fault but a generation of poor policy, yet it is that way today. I'm not doubting you, just saying I don't think much has been regained other than Duterte isn't openly antagonistic towards the US. He still embraces China to the point that he may not even accept Trumps invitation to visit. Considering the Historical military, cultural, and economic ties between the US and PI, this is absolutely unprecedented. You said Trump has "totally reversed" that Trend. That well may be the case but I have to see hard evidence backing that up besides Rhetoric, whereas the actual foreign policy shift around military and economic engagement with China is still growing, as evidenced by their aquiescing their claims of the South China Sea to the Chinese. That was unthinkable just a few years ago.

China's influence is becoming felt through all of Asia. In my own sphere, Tokyo is filled with construction projects that are being funded with Chinese money. I have a China-related project on my desk right now that I'm not touching because it's Golden Week and I'm feeling lazy as fuck. There's no way for the US to stop this, and I don't think we should want to. The impression I get, however, (And I could definitely be wrong about this) is that these relationships are entirely economic in nature. People want Chinese money. They want Chinese tourists. They may not necessarily, however, like the Chinese themselves. I don't know anything about Phillipine-Chinese relationships, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was the case there as well.

"Totally reversed" may have been a misstatement on my part, but my impression has always been that the rift in Phillipine-American relationships was caused entirely by Obama being an interventionist jackass. The fundamental relationship was unchanged, and fortunately Obama started his whining about Duterte late enough in the term that it didn't lead to any actual serious repercussions. Duterte's been comparing himself to Trump, and seems to be coming around.

Quote:- I'm not so convinced a resolution is in China's best interest to the NK problem, as was stated in the article. I think they assume that if NK collapses, our US forces will simply stay on the peninsula as a kind of stabilizing force for the region, and now there is no buffer between China and US forces. Why the hell do we still have NATO after the Soviet Union fell?

They might be right in this assumption that the US would stay in South Korea. But I think there's a good chance that we'd pack up and go home as the budget crunch hits, and I think their analysists have probably noticed this too.

As for NK itself, I think it's clear that China loves North Korea as long as NK stays in its corner and doesn't actually hurt anybody. They make a great buffer and a great bargaining chip. But that calculus changes if they start thinking NK is actually going to use their WMDs. A North Korean Chem weapon going off in a Tokyo subway or an LA shopping mall doesn't serve their interest at all, particularly because everybody knows that NK only exists at China's pleasure.

Post: #559

(05-04-2017 11:26 PM)Sherman Wrote:  One thing I noticed about the videos of North Korea is I don't see any utility poles. In third world countries, there is a tangle of wires above you and utility poles carrying electricity. Even in Mexico, most of the electricity is carried by utility poles. But nothing in North Korea. Which means it is underground. North Korea is not a third world country.

I remembered an old joke from Soviet times:

At year 1980: American archeologists dug and found copper wires 10 meters deep underground. Then they wrote a paper stating that Americans used copper wires to transmit electrical energy at this place 10 years ago.

At the same year: French archeologists dug and found Aluminum wires 50 meters deep underground. Then they wrote a paper stating that French used aluminum cables to transmit electrical energy at this place 50 years ago.

At the same year Soviet scientists read those papers and conducted their own experiments - they dug 200 meters deep and found nothing. Then they wrote a paper stating that Soviets had means of wireless energy transfer 200 years ago.

Post: #560

Sherman, c'mon. It means that there is no electricity, not that its underground.

Post: #561

(05-06-2017 04:44 AM)Mage Wrote:  

(05-04-2017 11:26 PM)Sherman Wrote:  One thing I noticed about the videos of North Korea is I don't see any utility poles. In third world countries, there is a tangle of wires above you and utility poles carrying electricity. Even in Mexico, most of the electricity is carried by utility poles. But nothing in North Korea. Which means it is underground. North Korea is not a third world country.

I remembered an old joke from Soviet times:

At year 1980: American archeologists dug and found copper wires 10 meters deep underground. Then they wrote a paper stating that Americans used copper wires to transmit electrical energy at this place 10 years ago.

At the same year: French archeologists dug and found Aluminum wires 50 meters deep underground. Then they wrote a paper stating that French used aluminum cables to transmit electrical energy at this place 50 years ago.

At the same year Soviet scientists read those papers and conducted their own experiments - they dug 200 meters deep and found nothing. Then they wrote a paper stating that Soviets had means of wireless energy transfer 200 years ago.

I'm dying!

Post: #562

(05-05-2017 11:58 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  I agree that losing our foothold in Asia is probably bad for the US (I'm coming around to the opinion that we should probably just leave anyway and let the Asians handle their own problems, but I haven't fully thought this out yet so let's stick with that as our premise.) But if that's the case, what is happening in Asia that's going to cause us to lose our foothold? Our influence in Asia isn't dependent on those stupid islands the Chinese are taking.

As RHH pointed out, those islands are far from "stupid".

There's a reason that China is willing to agitate for war with the entire region over them, and there's a reason that the US and Japan spent multiple battles in WWII fighting over a bunch of random islands way out in the Pacific.

The way power is projected in that time has evolved, but these islands are much more strategically located.

China's overall military strategy is to be able to project as much power around the region as possible while keeping the US out, and those islands help them do that.

China being able to hit our allies and bases around the region with missiles and air strikes at any time is a huge thing. They will be able to hold the entire region hostage, and they're already belligerent enough.

Neither the territorial claims nor the economic imbalances should be given any room for negotiation.

(05-05-2017 11:41 AM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  Once Trump wisens up to China down the road becaues it's obcvious he's been played, the US will be in a sever position of weakness and possibly unable to recover. The author is reccomending Trump wise up sooner than later. It's sound advice in my opinion.

Trump has been doing business with cutthroats for decades, and the majority of his handpicked appointees in the foreign policy realm are some of the most China aware people you'll find, including Bannon, Tillerson, and the now-gone Flynn. Flynn considers radical Islam and China the two biggest threats to the West.

Trump is simply dealing with North Korea right now, which is why he recently made calls to many of the ASEAN leaders because they were getting antsy that he was ignoring them.

(05-05-2017 05:05 PM)Robert High Hawk Wrote:  - Aside from positive rhetoric towards Trump, what evidence is there that our relationship with Philipines has even recovered to a pre-Obama era? Duterte has warmed up to China in ways that were unthinkable even 5 years ago. This is not only Obama's fault but a generation of poor policy, yet it is that way today. I'm not doubting you, just saying I don't think much has been regained other than Duterte isn't openly antagonistic towards the US. He still embraces China to the point that he may not even accept Trumps invitation to visit. Considering the Historical military, cultural, and economic ties between the US and PI, this is absolutely unprecedented. You said Trump has "totally reversed" that Trend. That well may be the case but I have to see hard evidence backing that up besides Rhetoric, whereas the actual foreign policy shift around military and economic engagement with China is still growing, as evidenced by their aquiescing their claims of the South China Sea to the Chinese. That was unthinkable just a few years ago.

The backlash from the military, government, and people of the Philippines regarding a China shift was huge. In fact, Duterte even hinted that there were rumors in the military about a coup around that time.

Despite the fact that the Philippines has something like 1/4th to 1/3rd partial Chinese ancestry, the pro-US and anti-China sentiment is pervasive, and has been for some time. Chinese merchants and residents had a bad reputation there even hundreds of years ago, including among the most notable Filipino intellectuals, like Jose Rizal.

Post: #563

Very thorough analysis of the NK/SK militaries for anyone who's curious. [/align]

Post: #564

Post: #565

If there's one person in the world who I would like to see thrown into a North Korean prison camp, it's that guy.
Get a haircut, put a shirt on, and make your points clearly and quickly.

Post: #566

If there's one person in the world who I would like to see thrown into a North Korean prison camp, it's that guy.
Get a haircut, put a shirt on, and make your points clearly and quickly.

He has good points and presents his views off the cuff as opposed to someone like Stephen Molynoux (whos videos average a hour long).

Other then his apperance I think his videos are solid.

Post: #567

The one and only Ramzpaul nails North Korea in 3 minutes, he speaks for me (with a shirt on):




Do we really want to blow this family up?

Post: #568

North Korea cannot be taken militarily for now unless the globalists have much much further advanced weaponry and are willing to roll it all out on that front - I doubt that very much.

So North Korea is here to stay since it cannot be dismantled. I would not put on sanctions - they are useless and only harm the people. Sooner or later that regime will fall or the military tech in the civilized world is so far advanced in comparison to North Korea, that the country can be taken in a few hours. That will be the time to do something and not before.

Post: #569

(05-21-2017 02:51 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  North Korea cannot be taken militarily for now unless the globalists have much much further advanced weaponry and are willing to roll it all out on that front - I doubt that very much.

So North Korea is here to stay since it cannot be dismantled. I would not put on sanctions - they are useless and only harm the people. Sooner or later that regime will fall or the military tech in the civilized world is so far advanced in comparison to North Korea, that the country can be taken in a few hours. That will be the time to do something and not before.

I completely disagree--NK could be taken even in the 50s, until the Chinese intervened. USA is more than capable to take NK today. NK has the largest army, but not enough guns for everyone. And we have a LOT more, and more capable planes today than in the 50s. And China just stepped aside.
Militarily NK doesn't stand a chance. Politically, is more sensitive subject.

Post: #570

Rodman is back for his FIFTH visit to the DPRK

Quote:Dennis Rodman returns to North Korea -
and thinks Donald Trump will be 'happy' as he tries to 'open door'

By Chris Graham
13 June 2017

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/...nofficial/

Former NBA player Dennis Rodman said was "just trying to open a door" with his visit to North Korea, adding that he expected Donald Trump would be happy with it. Roadman is expected to arrive in North Korea on Tuesday for a trip the US State Department said is not an official US visit. The former basketball player, who has been touted as an improbable emissary for Mr Trump, has met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on past trips to Pyongyang, describing it as "basketball diplomacy". "I'm just trying to open the door," Rodman told reporters. "My purpose is to actually to see if I can keep bringing sports to North Korea, so that's the main thing." Wearing a black T-shirt advertising a marijuana cybercurrency as he headed toward immigration at Beijing airport, Rodman was asked if he had spoken to the US president about his trip. "Well, I'm pretty sure he's pretty much happy with the fact that I'm over here trying to accomplish something that we both need," he said.

His visit comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests and its vow to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the US mainland. Four Americans are also being held in North Korea, including 22-year-old student Otto Warmbier, who was detained in January 2016 and sentenced to 15 years' hard labour for attempting to steal a propaganda banner. Rodman said the issue of several Americans currently detained by North Korea is "not my purpose right now." Rodman said earlier in a tweet: "I'm back! Thanks to my sponsor Potcoin." The company bills itself as a digital crypto-currency provider for the legal marijuana industry. Rodman added in the tweet that he would "discuss my mission upon my return to the USA". In Tokyo, a visiting senior US official said Rodman's trip was as a private citizen. "We are aware of his visit. We wish him well, but we have issued travel warnings to Americans suggested they not travel to North Korea for their own safety," US Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon told reporters after discussing the North Korea missile threat and other issues with Japanese counterparts.

The heavily tattooed Rodman has developed an unlikely relationship with Mr Kim since making his first trip in March 2013, when he declared the leader a "friend for life". At the time, Mr Trump tweeted: "The only American who has met with the North Korean man child is Dennis Rodman. Isn’t that frightening and sad?" Rodman later visited North Korea to film a television documentary with representatives of the Harlem Globetrotters celebrity team and called the leader of the reclusive country "an awesome man."

The 56-year-old, who appeared on the Celebrity Apprentice reality TV show when it was hosted by Mr Trump, backed the Republican during the presidential campaign. He has said in the past that Mr Kim likes Mr Trump, and that Mr Trump had expressed a curiosity about visiting North Korea. Mr Trump has denied such claims. In May 2014, he tweeted: "Crazy Dennis Rodman is saying I wanted to go to North Korea with him. Never discussed, no interest, last place on Earth I want to go to." In April, however, the president said he would be open to meeting the North Korean leader "under the right circumstance". The basketball Hall of Famer has been criticised for his trips to North Korea, which some US politicians and activists say merely serve as North Korean propaganda. Rodman, 56, nicknamed "The Worm" during his playing career, is considered one of the best defensive players and rebounders in NBA history. He won five league championships with the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls.

Post: #571

....


old Tweets from 2014:

Rodman was supposedly fired by Trump on celebrity apprentice for spelling Melania's name wrong
(Ivanka also makes an appearance):

Post: #572

Post: #573

With Otto Warmbier's state now becoming more apparent it can't be put in any other way - the state of North Korea has snuffed the life out of a US citizen in their captivity. His crime (if we even believe it to be true) was taking a propaganda poster.

Post: #574

And now Warmbier had passed. RIP.
North Korea has killed an American citizen.

Post: #575

(06-19-2017 03:59 PM)Vicious Wrote:  And now Warmbier had passed. RIP.
North Korea has killed an American citizen.

Good. Fuck him. I'm about to bust out my tiny violin. If you don't wanna get imprisoned by a hostile foreign government, don't go to said nation. It's really quite simple. Stay the fuck in Cincinnati.