Post: #401

(10-02-2016 10:59 AM)SunW Wrote:  Any of you know James Rickard's prediction on the Russian Ruble? He's been bragging about being right on the SDR and he was right. He said that his new guess about the future revolves around the Ruble. Anyone have a link or know what his guestimate is on the Ruble?

His new book is coming out. This time it sounds more like the end than what to do.

Post: #402

The market looks eerily similar to the days right before the 1987 crash

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sp-50...rash-2016-

RED ALERT — Get ready for a 'severe fall' in the stock market, HSBC says

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-red-a...07005.html

Post: #403

I pulled the trigger, moving funds from cash to precious metals in my IRA. Not a lot, but enough to give me a bit of a hedge in uncertainty. I was waiting for a pullback in the price of platinum and palladium, as it appears Russia has been dumping metals on the market to raise cash. The dip finally happened. I also moved cash into silver.

I am holding off on gold as there is a rumor there are funds that made a wrong bet on interest rates and gold prices in Europe. We might have a big gold dump coming soon.

The two funds I put cash into:

SPPP - Platinum & Palladium
SLV - Silver

These are not mining ETFs. They just physically hold the metal.

Post: #404

Started swing/day trading futures and selling out of the money call spreads, as I believe there is going to be a correction coming up. I don't want any money in indexes or equities over the next couple months. Also went long VXX call options into the election.

Buying gold is probably a solid investment for the coming months if you want your money to do something instead of sitting in cash.

Post: #405

Buffett is also sitting on cash:

Cash Is Piling Up Faster Than Warren Buffett Can Invest It

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...-invest-it

Post: #406

I'm sitting in mostly cash as well. I have a decent nest built on one stock in chemicals sector, just waiting for earnings results later this month, then I'll move to all cash. For those who have have assets in 401ks, what "cash" instruments do you buy?

Post: #407

(10-14-2016 04:58 PM)lex the impaler Wrote:  For those who have have assets in 401ks, what "cash" instruments do you buy?

Money market and government insured bonds. My 401k doesn't give me a precious metals option.

Post: #408

I call my current portfolio "schizophrenic" - about 50% in cash, 50% mostly in stocks with a little bit in alternative assets, such as REIT. So, if the market goes up or down, part of me likes it and another part hates it. I have no idea where the market is going and where it will be say a few month from now, so I will be dollar cost averaging the cash into index funds over the next few months. This strategy is based on my belief that the stock prices will be going up in the long run even with all the recessions and market swings which will definitely be happening as well.

Post: #409

is it a good idea to buy VXX stocks GTC on the election day? sorry for the nooby question

Post: #410

(10-17-2016 09:48 AM)chips Wrote:  is it a good idea to buy VXX stocks GTC on the election day? sorry for the nooby question

First question that comes to mind is, why would you place an order GTC on the day of your catalyst? If you want to bet that things will be more volatile than expected, you should place a day order with a limit price, or maybe even do the trade the day before. If you don't get filled at your limit by late in the day, bump up your limit price until your order gets filled.

Remember, when you buy VXX, you are not just betting that the market will move more than usual. You are betting that the market will move more than expected, or that expectations will become more volatile than they are now. Markets expect to move more than usual on special occasions. In this case, your trade won't make you money if the market moves exactly as expected after the results of the election become known.

I'm not personally a fan of VXX for a lot of reasons, and I would prefer to express my views on market volatility using options instead of stock. You can do this by buying an option straddle on SPY. Still, your idea is not a bad way to bet that the market will react more substantially to the election results than people expect.

Post: #411

@polymath: You got the theory right, but realistically VXX rises if the mkt sells off and vice versa. The thesis chips is making perhaps erroneously is that the mkt will selloff on election day.

Post: #412

got it, so a more advisable move would be to place an order for the day before the election?

Post: #413

(10-24-2016 12:28 PM)jj90 Wrote:  @polymath: You got the theory right, but realistically VXX rises if the mkt sells off and vice versa. The thesis chips is making perhaps erroneously is that the mkt will selloff on election day.

That's because of volatility skew. Downward moves imply a higher likelihood of future volatility than upward moves do.

(10-24-2016 04:51 PM)chips Wrote:  got it, so a more advisable move would be to place an order for the day before the election?

I would do it that way, assuming that you are playing for an election-day surprise. Not to mention that you probably want to put your position on before exit polls start reporting, etc.

Post: #414

@polymath: Agreed, and I'll say that if for example in the rare event SPX opens say >5% up, VXX would open higher, only to sell off rest of the day.

That's not what chips is really asking however, or that his thesis would imply.

Post: #415

Got $50 on Trump for shits and giggles because it really looked like Brexit, that pales to portfolio losses MTM in a Trump victory.

ES -3%, Nikkei -4%, USDJPY -2.5%, Gold +2.5%

Post: #416

(11-08-2016 09:49 PM)jj90 Wrote:  Got $50 on Trump for shits and giggles because it really looked like Brexit, that pales to portfolio losses MTM in a Trump victory.

ES -3%, Nikkei -4%, USDJPY -2.5%, Gold +2.5%

Like Brexit I think this move is way over done so I wouldn't worry to much about MTM loses. I'm trying to get filled on some ES puts at the moment, markets are super wide though.

I'm short bonds so hurting a little there but there's no way I'm getting out of that position!

Post: #417

Wow, didn't think we would bounce back this quick, should of held my short ES puts a little longer.

Post: #418

I expected S&P 500 to be down at least for a few days, prepared to buy index funds on the cheap, but it's going up. Another argument against market timing. It's a random walk, you just can't predict it.

Post: #419

While the market is down- any high dividend or strategic stock where you guys would recommended investing?

Post: #420

Dow is up over 200 points. Media wrong again.

Post: #421

I'm pretty pissed... I was hoping to buy in on some stuff on panic selling but didn't get a chance.

Post: #422

Yeah I had a bunch of stocks I was thinking about getting into at a discount.

They all crushed yesterday. One was up damn near 20%.

Post: #423

(08-26-2016 06:55 AM)Julio Wrote:  I started to buy these 3 companies not long ago and I'd like to increase my position should things turn better:
FLO: Second largest bakery in the US. Undervalued if you look at P/E historically and dividend yield (4.2%). Under DOL investigation but overreaction from the market IMO.
CXW and GEO: Price dropped due to a SJW democrat comments last week. Bought after that.

Turns out CXW and GEO made a killing yesterday thanks to Mr Trump.
I added some in the wagon, destination moon.

Post: #424

I'm happy on selling a big position into strength yesterday. I was expecting to wait a few days and buy on weakness after the Trump victory. Didn't happen. So definitely surprised here, but perhaps we will get a bigger pull back and I'll take up some new positions.

Random walk theory seems like its right sometimes.

Post: #425

The market didn´t tank because of Trump´s victory speech.

At least this makes sense:

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW)
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