Post: #376

Weekend Casanova I agree with much of what you say. None of those indicators are fine tune measures and every indicator has some flaws. Also I am not saying the market will crash anytime soon either.

I am just saying low returns should be expected from an index fund over the next 10 years. I just cannot see the index funds getting 7-10% returns over the next 10 years. It is incredibly unlikley. The returns will be low over the next 10 years. I do not think any sensible person including yourself would argue with that. I think after inflation and tax the net return over the next ten years for am S&P 500 Index Fund could potentially be zero or even negative.

And yes of course as always people picking individual stocks can do well (if they are good at it or lucky) despite the overall market (I have done well picking individual stocks in Australia).

Post: #377

Going long on SPY with a couple September 30 and maybe Oct 7 calls tomorrow after this rate hike got shot down.

VIX is below 15, not much volatility expected, probably will look at buying option strategies for the next while into October when everyone loses their shit over the US election.

Post: #378

i bought pearson, easyjet, bt group and rockhopper exp yesterday - all footsie stocks, not great conviction but i need to put my money to work

Post: #379

(09-18-2016 05:47 PM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  

(09-18-2016 09:52 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  My view is that the U.S. stock market is likely to produce poor (and possibly even negative) returns over the next ten years. My view is based on the facts that:
A) Long term valuation indicators such as the Schiller P.E. Ratio, Tobin's Q, and the Stock Market to GDP/GNP ratio (Buffett Indicator) are all at nosebleed levels indicating a current potentially extreme level of market overvaluation. Read the newsletter at the bottom of the link to get a better idea :
http://www.chrisleithner.ca/newsletter/i...94Fzoo_6f0

I work in Finance, so I understand the desire to use metrics, however, please don't reference the Schiller P/E Ratio and Tobin's Q - they're both highly flawed, and fairly rudimentary. I know that the Schiller P/E received a lot of praise, but it's been shown to be quite erroneous. It's predicted just as many crashes due to overvaluation as it has overvalued periods, when it was actually undervalued, or fairly valued (relatively speaking).

Secondly, I (and 90% of the street) agree that the market is overvalued.

Take a handful of companies from a variety of industries (outside of energy), and look at their fundamentals. Earnings/revenues are down, and prices are up. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that prices are high, and companies are overvalued. It won't a large, nasty correction I promise you that.

In saying that, remember that great investors don't buy into markets.

Hey WeekendCasanova, if Schiller P/E Ratio is flawed, which indicators would you recommend?

Also, perhaps you made a typo, could you explain this sentence " It won't a large, nasty correction I promise you that."? What do you mean by that?

Post: #380

I'll let weekendcasanova speak for himself, but I personally use a combination of RSI, MACD, CCI, and bollanger bands/simple support and resistance lines when evaluating a position. If 3 or so indicators are all pointing in the same direction, I execute.

Post: #381

(08-14-2016 11:30 AM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

(07-16-2016 08:37 AM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  Opened new longs UK bank stocks

BARC LN - 126.50 long 10k shares (27 June 2016)

LLOY LN - 56.79 long 20k shares (24 June 2016)

Update

BARC LN - 163.4 (still in play)

LLOY LN - 55.40 (still in play)

New long

Novo Nordisk open @ 319 DKK

Closed BARC LN @ 171

LLOY LN still in play

NOVO Nordisk still in play currently trading at 302 (MTM negative currently)

Since Original june trades 35.2% profit banked

Post: #382

(09-21-2016 10:05 PM)britabroad Wrote:  i bought pearson, easyjet, bt group and rockhopper exp yesterday - all footsie stocks, not great conviction but i need to put my money to work

Good to see someone talking UK/EU stocks on here

Post: #383

(09-22-2016 03:22 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

(09-21-2016 10:05 PM)britabroad Wrote:  i bought pearson, easyjet, bt group and rockhopper exp yesterday - all footsie stocks, not great conviction but i need to put my money to work

Good to see someone talking UK/EU stocks on here

My other holdings are Tesco, Ladbrokes, Jimmy Choo, Marks and Spencer and Sports Direct fwiw

Post: #384

A couple of my recent pickups are AMD, LDOS, FLO, GILD, WPT.

A couple which have performed decent for me which I've been holding for a while are... UVV and VGR which seem to have good dividends and a fairly stable price.

Post: #385

I don't like index funds. Rather buy the stocks in my own name.

My recent pickups are Coca-Cola, Nestle.

I tend to buy stocks I want to own forever and enjoy the dividends long term.

Post: #386

Lending Club is on it's way back up I'm making good cash on that, up 36% over 3 months.

Also EGHT has been a solid increasing investment for the last 8 years and counting, bought at $1 now is priced at $15 and still rising. Up 85% in the last year.

Post: #387

(09-23-2016 10:42 AM)Undercover Wrote:  I don't like index funds. Rather buy the stocks in my own name.

My recent pickups are Coca-Cola, Nestle.

I tend to buy stocks I want to own forever and enjoy the dividends long term.

Swiss stocks pay out juicy divs...Nestle, Sulzer, Novartis, Swiss Re etc plus are decent long term holds, recommend loading up when there is any move lower

Post: #388

(09-22-2016 04:51 PM)britabroad Wrote:  

(09-22-2016 03:22 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

(09-21-2016 10:05 PM)britabroad Wrote:  i bought pearson, easyjet, bt group and rockhopper exp yesterday - all footsie stocks, not great conviction but i need to put my money to work

Good to see someone talking UK/EU stocks on here

My other holdings are Tesco, Ladbrokes, Jimmy Choo, Marks and Spencer and Sports Direct fwiw

I'm looking at Redrow, Taylor Wimpey and Ocado at moment, but these markets feel frothy and v uncertain at moment. Currently I'm long

LLOY LN @56.56 (dec contract)
Novo Nordisk @319 (dec contract)
GBPUSD dec forward @1.3056

Post: #389

OPEC supply cut tonight, my rockhopper should romp

Post: #390

Stock market in an uptrend since end of late last week. Recent pattern is being followed this morning....that is, the market starts off slightly down or flat, then ends the day up pretty strong. Happened the past few days and is happening this morning.

As of now, it's 9;30 cst. The Dow is flat at up 6 and nasdaq is down 17. I'll bet they both end up by closing.

Post: #391

(09-29-2016 09:35 AM)robreke Wrote:  Stock market in an uptrend since end of late last week. Recent pattern is being followed this morning....that is, the market starts off slightly down or flat, then ends the day up pretty strong. Happened the past few days and is happening this morning.

As of now, it's 9;30 cst. The Dow is flat at up 6 and nasdaq is down 17. I'll bet they both end up by closing.

Nope.

The rally-pattern of the last week has been disrupted today.

Today started down and ended worse. The Deutsche Bank debacle has proven too much for today at least as hedge funds and institutions pile out of the stock driving other financials down in sympathy and dragging alot of the market down in the process.

Today will be a distribution day ( down day on heavier volume than recent days)

It's always a red flag to start getting distribution days so early in a new uptrend (current uptrend started last week) You want to see accumulation after a follow through day ( FTD is what's required to start a new rally, again, what we experienced last week), not distribution.

If we get one or two more distribution days in the next week or so like today, it will spell trouble for this new week-old rally.

Post: #392

bought capita plc at 661 today - ftse

big drop off since brexit and buying into the fear on profit warning and problems of late

Post: #393

Any of you know James Rickard's prediction on the Russian Ruble? He's been bragging about being right on the SDR and he was right. He said that his new guess about the future revolves around the Ruble. Anyone have a link or know what his guestimate is on the Ruble?

Post: #394

(09-30-2016 09:21 AM)britabroad Wrote:  bought capita plc at 661 today - ftse

big drop off since brexit and buying into the fear on profit warning and problems of late

Goddamn that was a big drop! Could you provide more insight into your decision to buy after that huge drop?

Post: #395

(09-21-2016 09:47 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  Going long on SPY with a couple September 30 and maybe Oct 7 calls tomorrow after this rate hike got shot down.

VIX is below 15, not much volatility expected, probably will look at buying option strategies for the next while into October when everyone loses their shit over the US election.

I'm waiting until after the election happens, probably iron condor:

bco SPY Dec 30 220
sco SPY Dec 30 218
bpo SPY Dec 30 210
spo SPY Dec 30 212

Subject to fluctuation

Post: #396

se7en i have no insider knowledge but from whats been released, the problems outlined seem relatively small and the stock has near halved in a few months whilst profit projections are still healthy.

tesco made a big comeback today which was sorely needed as 10% of my liferoll is in that one

Post: #397

Well I'm glad that I decided to start paper trading first as I don't think I would have the heart at the moment if I saw losses from the stock price movements.

The paper trading account has a $50k portfolio value and I've chosen a Buy & Hold strategy for the moment. For the first few weeks, I suffered about $3-5k losses on multiple stocks.

Now I'm about $1k up, mainly by just one stock having a huge jump in value with over $1.5k in capital gain.

I'm absolutely new at this, but if a stock has lost capital by $1k and the MV is $9k, should I sell? Or should I wait? Whats the go-to generally?

Post: #398

You're using a "buy and hold" strategy and measuring your results over a few weeks?

When I buy, I'm prepared to hold for years.

If you want to become a day trader, then that is a very different path and requires years of learning and not something i would advise unless you're exceptionally dedicated or a firm will hire you.

Post: #399

I'm not too up on the market, but I recognize that betting on a VIX rise is a bet on a Trump victory (in addition to other uncertainties). I also understand that it's impossible to play the VIX directly. But I also see that something like VXX is meant for trading, not an investment (i.e. buy and hold).

So what's the best play for betting on a Trump victory through something connected to the VIX (for someone without much market experience who doesn't want to pay too much attention between now and the election of the God Emperor Trump)?

Post: #400

If you truly believe that a Trump victory equals rising VIX and hence selling off in S&P:

Buy VXX, buy VXX calls. Conversely, short SPY, buy SPY puts.