Post: #351

(08-14-2016 02:36 AM)lavidaloca Wrote:  Whats everyones thoughts on uranium. I've had some bad investments in my day. But none has given me more of an ass whooping than Cameco. Should I get out now or should I just hold and hope for a rebound. Thankfully I only invested about 10k when it was in the mid $18 range.

Low risk buy. A better route might be an MF or ETF with exposure to spread picking winners.

Post: #352

Anyone riding AMD? I think it could hit $15 in a year or two

Also HIMAX as a super long play?

Post: #353

(07-16-2016 08:37 AM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  Opened new longs UK bank stocks

BARC LN - 126.50 long 10k shares (27 June 2016)

LLOY LN - 56.79 long 20k shares (24 June 2016)

Update

BARC LN - 163.4 (still in play)

LLOY LN - 55.40 (still in play)

New long

Novo Nordisk open @ 319 DKK

Post: #354

I'm thinking of a small investment into WPT (World Point Terminals): http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WPT?ltr=1

They're a small company (543.13M mrkt cap) that has oil (and other resource, like cement) holding terminals for resource producers / distributors.

I'm attracted to the company because they have 0 debt, access to a large credit facility in the case that they want to acquire new terminals, and very steady but slowly growing revenues and profit. They got a bit clobbered last year during the oil collapse due to them being in the oil industry, but they actually have no direct exposure to oil prices per se - however, if their customer base goes bankrupt due to low oil prices, I guess they could have problems.

The biggest risk factor is that I believe 80% of their contracts come from Apex oil, which is also a large stakeholder in the company, and which is also privately held, so we don't really know much about the financial health of their biggest customer.

I'm primarily attracted to the company due to: 7.85% dividend yield. I would like to buy and hold long just to collect the dividends, while they come.

Any thoughts?

Post: #355

@se7en: Looks good, cursory glance shows no red flags.

Post: #356

Thanks for the help earlier, I decided on paper trading for now, do you guys recommend any good free software or demos that I can use?

Post: #357

(08-14-2016 11:57 PM)JayD Wrote:  Thanks for the help earlier, I decided on paper trading for now, do you guys recommend any good free software or demos that I can use?

Check out Interactive Brokers, they have a paper trading platform.

Post: #358

(08-14-2016 03:10 PM)jj90 Wrote:  @se7en: Looks good, cursory glance shows no red flags.

Except for stagnant growth.

Only reason I'd own it is for the dividend, and their consistency in paying a dividend.

Post: #359

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lockheed-m...00098.html

Oversubscribed by 86.7M, 1.8M which is odd lot out of 9.36M to be exchanged. LMT float at 303M, 96M tendered. About 1/3 of Lockheed's shareholders were in play on this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rather larger down day in Leidos the day shares are handed out.

Post: #360

Wow, LDOS had a beautiful 26% drop! I guess this is due to the dividend payment. Btw, the company actually has great fundamentals according to this article: http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/201...trust.html Any thoughts of buying long term?

Post: #361

(08-17-2016 12:44 PM)se7en Wrote:  Wow, LDOS had a beautiful 26% drop! I guess this is due to the dividend payment. Btw, the company actually has great fundamentals according to this article: http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/201...trust.html Any thoughts of buying long term?

Might be related with the purchase of Lockheed IT:

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13678189...yptr=yahoo

Post: #362

general market - came out of large consolidation. A bit of a cup and handle (not viewable on the below chart, but if you view a long term weekly chart you can see it) The below chart indicates the current multi-week pause, which could be the market setting up for another leg up:



The market is now making new highs, which started around July 10 as can be seen from the above chart, for the first time in over a year.

This could be significant:

When the SP makes a new high after one year of not having made them, historically it’s a bullish event. The average 6 month return after is 7.3 pct and average 12 month return is 14%.

We've moved up for 9 weeks now on nasdaq…off the brexit low.

The Dow has been consolidating for 6 weeks, between 18400 and 18600ish in a tight consolidation. It looks like it’s trying to set up to move higher;



The volume is trending lower as we’ve gone higher. This is a good sign of tightening in prices.

Expect volume to get lower going into labor day.

On the flip side of the coin, we’re near 55% bullish advisors, which being a contrarian indicator, often portends a pause.

This bull is in the late stages but there's still money to be made. The gains the next year or two (or however long this bull market has left) will be tougher and not as big as they were in the beginning of the bull.

At this point, it doesn't look like we're on the verge of a bear market, but one will occur one day. A year? Two years? Who knows but it will occur at some point.

In summary...
* Bull market in late stage (90 months)
* Watching bullish/bearish sentiment and economic output (Fed tightening?)
* Focus on stocks with good earnings and sound entry points
* When you have decent profits, protect your break even and profits. (Consider selling half for a profit and let the rest run) as the later stages of a bull market, the runs won't be as long typically as during the early stages.
* Sell into strength, taking profits.
* Use and adhere to stops

Stocks being watched;

OLLI - setting up handle on a cup and handle. Earnings coming soon so be careful.
DLTH - pausing but in decent uptrend
INGN….buyable on upturn

Post: #363

Holy fucking shit. WOW.

This LDOS tender came in way higher than I thought possible. I got 30% on the position vs expected 10% tops.

Profit was 30% in 3 weeks, or 485% annualized.

Got put the shares at 31.15, sold at about 40.

Post: #364

MHY.UN(CSE). You're welcome.

Edit: take some time to examine MHY, and its holdings. I won't tell you what it's worth, and why it's such an incredible investment, I'll leave that up to you.

Post: #365

(08-23-2016 03:09 PM)jj90 Wrote:  Holy fucking shit. WOW.

This LDOS tender came in way higher than I thought possible. I got 30% on the position vs expected 10% tops.

Profit was 30% in 3 weeks, or 485% annualized.

Got put the shares at 31.15, sold at about 40.

You and me both. I made $6k off $26k. And the expected 10% had degraded to 7% because of the final details of the swap. We gained on LMT and LDOS on both sides of the tender hugely.

FUCK YEAH!

jj90, looking forward to a beer, on your tab haha

Post: #366

(08-24-2016 09:09 AM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  MHY.UN(CSE). You're welcome.

Edit: take some time to examine MHY, and its holdings. I won't tell you what it's worth, and why it's such an incredible investment, I'll leave that up to you.

I'm likely in. My only concern is opportunity cost, how long are we waiting before we get paid out. There is nothing on google on whether Cline has sold it's assets or about to.

Do you know if the distributions will be tax advantaged or is it up to the vehicle we hold MHY.UN units in?

Post: #367

Just throwing it out there, any safe stocks to buy for £500, I am looking for a 5% return to get me started. I will be willing to put in £1000 if there is a possibility for 10%, is this realistic or going to be difficult ?

Post: #368

(08-25-2016 06:16 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Just throwing it out there, any safe stocks to buy for £500, I am looking for a 5% return to get me started. I will be willing to put in £1000 if there is a possibility for 10%, is this realistic or going to be difficult ?

$AMD is still undervalued as is NVDA and HIMX. (just IMO).

Post: #369

(08-25-2016 06:16 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Just throwing it out there, any safe stocks to buy for £500, I am looking for a 5% return to get me started. I will be willing to put in £1000 if there is a possibility for 10%, is this realistic or going to be difficult ?

I invested in $WPT - World Point Terminals for this reason - they have no debt, very slow but steady growth, and pay 7% dividend. Besides this, the stock dropped a bit since mid 2014, but this seems to be due to the fact that it is somewhat connected to the beat-up oil industry (they are an oil storage company), and seemingly got swept along with the hype. They don't actually have any direct exposure to oil prices per se, though (besides the fact that their main customer is a privately held oil company).

Nevertheless, you are always taking on risk with individual stocks. Maybe vanguard index fund it? I believe the yoy return for the S&P in the past 5 years is 5% a year (total return being 66.869%), with fairly low risk. This seems to fit your criteria.

Post: #370

Thanks for both of the above posters, I will be entering the stock market for the first time, so something along those lines would be suitable for me.

Post: #371

I started to buy these 3 companies not long ago and I'd like to increase my position should things turn better:
FLO: Second largest bakery in the US. Undervalued if you look at P/E historically and dividend yield (4.2%). Under DOL investigation but overreaction from the market IMO.
CXW and GEO: Price dropped due to a SJW democrat comments last week. Bought after that.

Post: #372

Is anyone trying to short sovereign debt with negative (or near negative) yields? While rates may stay low for a while, it's simply more likely that a shock will occur causing yields to increase rather than decrease.

It would seem like a potential trade of the decade, but I haven't seen a way to put a relatively small amount to work except buy put options on international bond funds (like BWX). And those are only for a few months out.

Post: #373

@Kissinger2014: Not as easy as it seems as you may have found out. Google JGB widowmaker.

I am short Fed Funds, though not exactly sovereign debt

Post: #374

My view is that the U.S. stock market is likely to produce poor (and possibly even negative) returns over the next ten years. My view is based on the facts that:
A) Long term valuation indicators such as the Schiller P.E. Ratio, Tobin's Q, and the Stock Market to GDP/GNP ratio (Buffett Indicator) are all at nosebleed levels indicating a current potentially extreme level of market overvaluation. Read the newsletter at the bottom of the link to get a better idea :
http://www.chrisleithner.ca/newsletter/i...94Fzoo_6f0
B) Profit margins for the S&P 500 are still well above historical averages, and profit margins for the indexes have a strong tendency towards mean reversion. Read some of the work of Jeremy Grantham at GMO and also the work of John Hussman and John Mauldin about the mean reverting tendencies of corporate profit margins.
C) interest rates are historically low and will at some point in the future are likely to rise towards the mean (might not get to the mean but will at least head substantially in that direction).
D) Earnings Per Share for the S&P 500 has already peaked (at least currently. I cannot say whether they will recover again in the short term or not) so you have not even got the earnings momentum factor to push the market higher. As you can see from this earnings chart:
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_eps

Post: #375

(09-18-2016 09:52 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  My view is that the U.S. stock market is likely to produce poor (and possibly even negative) returns over the next ten years. My view is based on the facts that:
A) Long term valuation indicators such as the Schiller P.E. Ratio, Tobin's Q, and the Stock Market to GDP/GNP ratio (Buffett Indicator) are all at nosebleed levels indicating a current potentially extreme level of market overvaluation. Read the newsletter at the bottom of the link to get a better idea :
http://www.chrisleithner.ca/newsletter/i...94Fzoo_6f0

I work in Finance, so I understand the desire to use metrics, however, please don't reference the Schiller P/E Ratio and Tobin's Q - they're both highly flawed, and fairly rudimentary. I know that the Schiller P/E received a lot of praise, but it's been shown to be quite erroneous. It's predicted just as many crashes due to overvaluation as it has overvalued periods, when it was actually undervalued, or fairly valued (relatively speaking).

Secondly, I (and 90% of the street) agree that the market is overvalued.

Take a handful of companies from a variety of industries (outside of energy), and look at their fundamentals. Earnings/revenues are down, and prices are up. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that prices are high, and companies are overvalued. It won't a large, nasty correction I promise you that.

In saying that, remember that great investors don't buy into markets.