Post: #126

what do you guys think of volkswagon? I am considering playing their spring discount.

Post: #127

(02-09-2016 11:02 PM)Silver_Tube Wrote:  How does a novice take advantage of the low oil prices?

Fill your car up with cheap gas

Post: #128

If we hit SPX 1795ish tomorrow I will go long via TNA (Tits 'n Ass) with a tight stop.

Post: #129

What would you do with a diversified portfolio that is moderately aggressive? Some options I'm thinking about:

1. Sell but where do you put the cash?
2. Rebalance to be more conservative
3. Do nothing. Just stick it out for the long haul

Any input would be appreciated.

Post: #130

Did you buy something? I loaded up on some index ETFs. Still think the support around 1800 will break down at some point.

(02-11-2016 09:11 PM)Onto Wrote:  If we hit SPX 1795ish tomorrow I will go long via TNA (Tits 'n Ass) with a tight stop.

Post: #131

(02-12-2016 11:59 PM)Buakaw Wrote:  Did you buy something? I loaded up on some index ETFs. Still think the support around 1800 will break down at some point.

(02-11-2016 09:11 PM)Onto Wrote:  If we hit SPX 1795ish tomorrow I will go long via TNA (Tits 'n Ass) with a tight stop.

I didn't, in cash waiting for a place to either short or go long

Post: #132

Saudi markets down big over the weekend as tensions increase in middle east, we'll see how that affects equities in the rest of the world. I don't think this should be necessarily bearish for stocks elsewhere in the world.

Any day traders here or mostly investors?

Personally here not going long anything positively correlated with the overall market and will probably not change my mind until we hit 1500ish in the S&P.

Post: #133

(02-14-2016 03:58 PM)wroclove Wrote:  Any day traders here or mostly investors?

I am swing trading a small account. All my long term money is in cash not planning to put that back into the market for a while

Post: #134

N225 up 7% last night alone...careful out there day traders

Post: #135

Weekly Market Update # 5 / 2016


My Market signal is still on sell,

I’m still in cash. I don’t see alot of “merchandise” in terms of stocks setting up in terms of constructive stock charts. This is often one of the best indicators that the stock market is ready to begin an uptrend and that's not happening now.

I wouldn’t mind seeing the market undercut it’s lows and shaking out the last of the doubters.

The Russell 2000 has taken a particularly drastic hit:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ERUT+Interactive#

Notice how on the above 2 year chart , that new lows are being made with many distribution ( red) down days on the volume. It’s going to take time for that chart to repair itself.

Oil is a catalyst for the market. It is in a steep decline. If we can finally see oil bottom and head up, I think it will translate to the market. However, oil's chart is 'damaged' much like the above mentioned Russell 2000 (small cap stocks). Damaged charts like that don't just form a "V" shaped bottom and start going back up all of a sudden. They take quite some time to work out a bottom, and then, begin a new uptrend. It's usually a somewhat long, drawn out affair. Right now, we're not seeing that:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USO+Interactive#

If oil caves further from here, or just stays low for long, you’re probably going to see alot of oil companies go out of business. That would lead to hurting alot of earnings on the S&P 500 and that is what the market is currently discounting among other things.

With such a strong downtrend, oil and by sympathy the market, isn’t just going to turn around and start heading up. It, like stocks has to build a bottom, which can take months, before any uptrend starts.

The 10 year treasury yield has also been declining and showing weakness around 1.6 % which is indicating economic tough times down the road. Read; possible recession.

Bearishness among investment advisors is currently high, which, from a contrarian standpoint , is a good thing from a psychological standpoint, because often, extreme bearishness is required for a market to bottom. But as mentioned above, there are not other corroborating signs of bottoming.

In summary:

* Initial rallies at this point should never be trusted.
* Wait for good rallies and “follow through” ( remember follow through is not always confirmation)
* There is not much if any accumulation happening.
* Stocks in good ‘set ups’ and good patterns not currently evident for the most part.

I see alot of talk here about trying to catch the bottom and time it. I frankly think that is a fool's game if you're trading individual stocks. Why not wait for an uptrend to be confirmed before buying?

Sit back, sit in cash, preserve your account value and just as important, your positive psychology/mental capital, and wait for an uptrend to be confirmed.

Sure, it might take months if not longer, but always feeling that you "have to be in the action/ always have to be doing something" despite what the market is telling you, has been the mindset of many a once hopeful, now broke trader.

Post: #136

Hi Robreke,

I'm still very green when it comes to investments (you actually helped me out when I first started) and I would be grateful for your advice. I have a couple admiral shares of World Index funds on Vanguard along with a couple other things. The Index funds show a loss of a few grand, as the market has been beaten down at the turn of the new year. Prevailing wisdom says to just sit back and wait for the market to bounce back. Being that these index funds are long term investments for me, I should not touch this. Will this sentiment always apply? Or is there a situation I should look out for that would encourage me to take action?

Post: #137

(02-18-2016 09:00 PM)robreke Wrote:  Weekly Market Update # 5 / 2016


In summary:

* Initial rallies at this point should never be trusted.
* Wait for good rallies and “follow through” ( remember follow through is not always confirmation)
* There is not much if any accumulation happening.
* Stocks in good ‘set ups’ and good patterns not currently evident for the most part.

I see alot of talk here about trying to catch the bottom and time it. I frankly think that is a fool's game if you're trading individual stocks. Why not wait for an uptrend to be confirmed before buying?

Sit back, sit in cash, preserve your account value and just as important, your positive psychology/mental capital, and wait for an uptrend to be confirmed.

Sure, it might take months if not longer, but always feeling that you "have to be in the action/ always have to be doing something" despite what the market is telling you, has been the mindset of many a once hopeful, now broke trader.

Solid summary and very close to my thinking. Thanks!

Post: #138

I went to Macau this week for a quick second. Place looks empty. Its already declined quite a bit but the casinos stocks might be taking another nose dive soon.

Post: #139

(02-19-2016 03:00 AM)Fury Wrote:  Hi Robreke,

I'm still very green when it comes to investments (you actually helped me out when I first started) and I would be grateful for your advice. I have a couple admiral shares of World Index funds on Vanguard along with a couple other things. The Index funds show a loss of a few grand, as the market has been beaten down at the turn of the new year. Prevailing wisdom says to just sit back and wait for the market to bounce back. Being that these index funds are long term investments for me, I should not touch this. Will this sentiment always apply? Or is there a situation I should look out for that would encourage me to take action?

My advice is mostly for people who trade individual stocks ( either day trade/week trade or even longer term on INDIVIDUAL STOCKS only) Possibly also for guys who do options.

A major bear market can wipe out all gains on individual stocks even when someone's holding long term. For example, my individual stock accounts will have usually 5 to 8 stocks comprising the whole account when I'm fully invested ( which is of course only during discernible uptrends in the market ) I've been in Cash since December.

For , I'm assuming, younger guys like yourself, if you're doing mutual funds then don't trade in and out. hold them through periods like this and, most likely, even through bear markets. Just keep dollar cost averaging and adding. Mutual funds are a different way of investing and you don't have to worry about timing as you do with individual stocks. The trade off of course is, the returns are often much lower than a guy who leverages with stocks.

My mutual fund accounts are still pretty much fully invested. Only the more aggressive strategy of buying individual stocks is the in and out from stocks to cash. A pullback like this, can send an individual stock portfolio down from anywhere from 30 to 70 %. That is absolutely devastating to a trader's account value and psychology/ mental capital.

Most stocks correct more than the market during periods like this.

Post: #140

*** Super speculative suggestion ***

If you want to bet some extra money, I will suggest: EZPW (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ezpw). They are a pawn shop company based in Texas, with stores throughout the U.S., Canada and Mexico. After a horrible 2015, with them shutting down their payday lawn business (and paying a fine), and some accounting problems, they are gearing up for a strong comeback. Given the recent hiccups, the street is massively undervaluing them compared to their competitors. One competitor, FCFS, which has the same revenue as EZPW is trading at 1.6x sales, while EZPW is trading at 0.20

They have an experienced CEO, who left a multimillion dollar job in Australia, to run the organization. The stock currently trades at $2.9. But the CEO's stock options vest when the stock price hits between $15 and $40.

Barring any major screwup or scandals, this stock should hit $10 by the end of the year.

***Again, very speculative stock....Do your own research*****

Post: #141

I've eyed EZPW for awhile now but it's tough to pull the trigger on this one when there is so much opportunity in this environment for beaten down deep value. I only looked at it lightly recently so I need to get into the financials and project some stuff but the tl;dr version I'm seeing now is the company's margins need to stabilize or debt servicing is going to be an issue. Which in 1-2 years will likely lead to Chapter 11.

Yeah, it's $0 or $10 in < 24 months. Be careful. Good luck.

Post: #142

Everyone and their grandmother is watching the resistance at 1950 on the S&P500. Can crude help push it through this time?

   

Post: #143

Weekly market update # 6

I'm still on a sell signal risk model, though it has started to improve a little.

New highs and lows are still subdued, which is common after a big correction.

We got some up days and also a follow through day. It was, however, on lower than average volume so not a great FTD. That FTD occurred late last week. More stocks are starting to "break out" of bases and many are now setting up in bullish chart patterns. We'll see if these breakouts and chart patterns hold or break down from here.

There has been no distribution since the FTD but my sense is we have a bit more of base building to do. i.e., sideways, choppy action for some time before a real uptrend is in place. It appears now that the market is carving out a "new bottom" now in this sideways fashion. It should be a choppy, volatile frustrating affair.



The S&P 500, since its started to creep back up, is coming right up against its declining 50DMA (bumping into it, as it were ) where it last experienced resistance and a pull back. I think this will again, be an area of resistance. ^ see Buakaw's above graph on this.

We are short term overbought and moving into the moving averages, as mentioned above.

The fed wants to tighten and if the economy gets strong at all they will tighten, which will be a negative and of course the wrong thing to do. Par for the course for the Fed if they do this.

2/3 of advisors are calling for a new low which is good. Historically, when most advisors and blog advisors are bearish, it often indicates we're nearing or at a market bottom.

No graphs or charts today, just commentary on what I'm seeing.

I think it’s a good time to start looking at stocks and making your lists in case this is indeed a bottom and an uptrend ensues.

Post: #144

Weekly Market Update # 7

Still on sell signal, though things are definitely improving. The general market is picking up and stocks are starting to form and "breakout" of bases.

If this continues, I would look for my model to go from a sell signal to a buy signal soon, perhaps by next week.

I'm beginning to do some 'pilot' buys of stocks. By that I mean, I'll buy half positions of what I'd normally buy if the market were on an outright "buy signal". Always keep tight stops, especially if you're not convinced the market's in an uptrend yet.

We’re rising into an area of resistance via previous recent highs and moving averages.

However, we had a "follow through day" which I mentioned in my recent post and that is holding. We need to see now that the market can avoid massive distribution (ie. the follow through day continuing to hold) and see if it the market can stay over bought.

The RSI indicator, shows that the market is, as I just mentioned, currently overbought. Sometimes, in a good burgeoning new uptrend stocks can get over bought and stay over bought for an extended period. Being overbought on the RSI indicator doesn't necessarily mean "sell sell!" as a true bull market will stay in overbought RSI territory for an extended period until easy pullbacks let that indicator settle down again. Let’s hope this continues.

In summary:

* Doing some pilot buy trades. Just testing the waters.
* The market is improving though no outright buy signal yet.
* Is this a bear market rally or new uptrend? We'll see.
* I recommend to be Incremental and slowly get in.
* Build on successes. If your individual stock picks are showing profits, you can add more (pyramid) at new higher prices.

Post: #145

I have a pretty large portfolio mostly in fidelity and vanguard index funds but i'm all out for now into cash. There's better returns I can get while the market sits on the brink plus everything just looks too spooky at the moment as far as long term trends goes.

I believe we're heading into a pretty big bear market. If i'm wrong i'm wrong but until the charts improve dramatically..i'm out. It will be nice to have a nice big fat keg of dry powder to dump into it when the bull resumes though.

Post: #146

^El Chinto Loco. What better returns are you referring to?

Post: #147

(03-04-2016 10:01 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  I have a pretty large portfolio mostly in fidelity and vanguard index funds but i'm all out for now into cash. There's better returns I can get while the market sits on the brink plus everything just looks too spooky at the moment as far as long term trends goes.

I believe we're heading into a pretty big bear market. If i'm wrong i'm wrong but until the charts improve dramatically..i'm out. It will be nice to have a nice big fat keg of dry powder to dump into it when the bull resumes though.

Good for you ECL avoiding this pullback by being in cash, but I need to reiterate for everyone here, as far as my humble posts are concerned, my insights are for traders who are buying and trading individual stocks or maybe options. Not so much mutual fund investors. For example a 100K or 800K or whatever size it is, portfolio, that may, when fully invested have 5 to, at most 10 individual stocks in it.

That's the in and out, invested to cash, action I'm referring to.

To most investors, especially young ones, doing mutual funds through 401k or just individual mutual fund accounts, it's usually best to stay pretty much fully invested and continue to dollar cost average over long periods of time.

Post: #148

(03-04-2016 05:21 PM)robreke Wrote:  To most investors, especially young ones, doing mutual funds through 401k or just individual mutual fund accounts, it's usually best to stay pretty much fully invested and continue to dollar cost average over long periods of time.

I absolutely agree with you for the most part. I wouldn't actually recommend others do what i'm doing without a clearly defined plan since i'm putting cash to work in other ways. I guess you could call it a shift to more defensive assets.

I'm only partially out of my funds anyhow, i'm getting rid of the 100% stock index positions for now. I've been holding a lot of u.s. total stock market and international stock index since 2011 or so and i'm out of those for the time being. I'm keeping others like Wellesley which have less stock exposure.

Robreke your market analysis is pretty good and what are your thoughts about this breaking down into a prolonged bear?

Long term trends in my opinion do not really look good. Lots of recent low volume trading too. What's been happening lately seems more like a counter trend rally with very ugly longer term monthly MA crossovers on the broader market especially SPX and DJX. I don't claim to be a trader or pro at the market of course just my observations.

(03-04-2016 10:15 AM)Brodiaga Wrote:  ^El Chinto Loco. What better returns are you referring to?

Not stock market related. Local business investment opps. in asia and property. The good thing about being overseas is that the dollar is pretty strong at the moment.

Post: #149

(03-04-2016 09:55 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  Robreke your market analysis is pretty good and what are your thoughts about this breaking down into a prolonged bear?

I can't say. Frankly, I don't care what my gut says. I watch what the market tells me and make decisions based on that. At this point, it looks like a bottoming process that will either end up being a bear market rally or nearing/at the end of this correction and we're still in the midst of a long term bull that started in 2009.

There will be a bear at some point. Whether this is it or not, remains to be seen.

Post: #150

(03-06-2016 10:19 PM)robreke Wrote:  

(03-04-2016 09:55 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  Robreke your market analysis is pretty good and what are your thoughts about this breaking down into a prolonged bear?

I can't say. Frankly, I don't care what my gut says. I watch what the market tells me and make decisions based on that. At this point, it looks like a bottoming process that will either end up being a bear market rally or nearing/at the end of this correction and we're still in the midst of a long term bull that started in 2009.

There will be a bear at some point. Whether this is it or not, remains to be seen.

Are you day trader? Not sure if I missed you commenting on what you do.

Unless you're a day trader, basing your trades off what the 'market says' is not the best idea. It's better to look at the underlying fundamental data of a company - the performance returns are far greater in the long-run, and the risk is lower. But again, if you are a day trader - you won't be able to live off trading(investing) this way.

Also, in regards to someone else who mentioned it, DCA is fine, but it has some cons; high risk (doesn't deal with volatility well), higher transaction costs, and it doesn't guarantee a higher return than lump sum investing.

Obviously, if you don't have a big amount to deal with, DCA may be ok - but people think they can just use DCA and never have to touch their portfolio - which is not the right thing to do. We've also found that most of the time(not all of the time), LSI > DCA in terms of return. Also, if you're a poor saver, DCA is good. Helps you get into the habit of saving.

Some good stuff in this thread, keep at it!