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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
Chance favors the prepared mind.
My strength lies solely in my tenacity.
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| 12-02-2015 11:32 AM |
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
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| 12-02-2015 12:41 PM |
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Emanuël
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
Not to derail this thread, but it seems to be true that the capabilities of Russian equipment, especially fighters jets, often seem to be rated much higher then reality shows.
The best example of this is probably the record of the f-15 with a 104! air to air kills and not a single loss from enemy fighters.
Now I do understand context and nuance is very important, since a large portion of these kills were done by the Israel Air force against far less professional armies, and often facing outdated and/or downgraded versions.
However, Whereas you need to take any kind of numbers or statistics with a grain of salt, I would argue that you can heap any amount of proverbial salt on these facts and still reach similar conclusions.
The McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle entered service in 1976, and things haven't been looking up for the Russian aviation industry.
Fighter jets with integrated modern avionics and stealth technology are flying in the United States ever since 2001 ( F-22 Raptor ) whereas the supposed Russian answer Sukhoi PAK FA is still in its testing phase.
Asumming Russian goverment estimates are correct ( and be honest here, this is a big assumption) the PAK FA should enter production in early 2017.
Best case scenario for the Russian airforce: Russia is around 16 Years behind the United States. However I personally think this will probably turn out to be even longer.
P.S. A quick word on stealth. It is not a impopular idea on the internet that stealth doesn't work. (This opinion is not shared by either the Russian or Chinese government.) However stealth on a airplane can be compared with armor on a tank. Who would take someone serious who claims armored vehicles don't work, are a waste of money, and cited a tank getting destroyed as proof for his genius revelation? Yet the f117 nighthawk shot down in 1999, under worst case scenarios, seems to serve as 'undeniable proof' that stealth is a scam.
Stealth doesn't make you invisible, armor doesn't make you untouchable, but both can save your life.
note: I'm not a native english speaker, so I'm sorry for any weird sentences.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2015 05:06 PM by Emanuël.)
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| 12-02-2015 05:04 PM |
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Blunt
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
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| 12-02-2015 06:37 PM |
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SigmundSauer
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-02-2015 06:37 PM)Blunt Wrote: ![[Image: itRyznZ.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/itRyznZ.jpg)
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gollum...an-n472806
Quote:ISTANBUL — A judge has asked five experts to determine whether comparing Turkey's president to "Lord of the Rings" character Gollum should be considered an insult.
Bilgin Ciftci appeared in court in southern Turkey on Tuesday and could face up to two years in jail for posting pictures of the slimy and scary creature juxtaposed with photos of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Facebook, according to his lawyer Hicran Danisman. Insulting a public figure is a crime in Turkey.
An image of Gollum from "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey". Warner Bros. Pictures file
Judge Murat Saz in the city of Aydin asked that two academics, two psychologists or behavioral scientists and a movie or television expert to weigh in on the true nature of Gollum's character, Danisman said.
"I am very surprised by the decision of the judge," he added.
The case follows an anonymous complaint and is being pursued by the local prosecutor, who could not be reached for comment. The alleged offense occurred on Sept. 12, 2014, according to Danisman.
The case was later adjourned until February.
In the books and movies, Gollum's desire for a magical ring he called "my precious" completely obsesses him and disfigures his body.
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| 12-02-2015 06:40 PM |
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ed pluribus unum
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-02-2015 05:04 PM)Emanuël Wrote: Not to derail this thread, but it seems to be true that the capabilities of Russian equipment, especially fighters jets, often seem to be rated much higher then reality shows.
Best case scenario for the Russian airforce: Russia is around 16 Years behind the United States. However I personally think this will probably turn out to be even longer.
...Yet the f117 nighthawk shot down in 1999...
I see your point, but Su-24 is hardly the cutting edge of Russian aerospace technology is it? When i heard it was a Su24 my initial thought was that it was a sacrificial target, that the Russians did not want to risk one of their more advanced aircraft.
As for stealth, the F117 was meant to be part of a whole 'package' - stealth capabilities of the plane itself, electronic suppression of enemy air defenses, air superiority and so on. The one that got hit in Yugoslavia had none of that, it was flying 'solo', so to speak.
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| 12-02-2015 06:49 PM |
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Emanuël
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-02-2015 06:49 PM)ed pluribus unum Wrote: I see your point, but Su-24 is hardly the cutting edge of Russian aerospace technology is it? When i heard it was a Su24 my initial thought was that it was a sacrificial target, that the Russians did not want to risk one of their more advanced aircraft.
As for stealth, the F117 was meant to be part of a whole 'package' - stealth capabilities of the plane itself, electronic suppression of enemy air defenses, air superiority and so on. The one that got hit in Yugoslavia had none of that, it was flying 'solo', so to speak.
Well, my comment was more of a response to previous pages then commentary on the recent incident.
About the Su-24? Here is wat really happend: The Russian pilot was accidentally flying trough Turkish territory (he was holding his map upside down) . The reason that he was using an obsolete plane used by the Syrian air force was to make sure the Syrian pilots wouldn't feel jealous on the shiny new toys of their Russian colleagues.
Unfortunately the rather old plane had a malfunctioning radio since the Russians didn't expect to need it in the foreseeable future. therefore he could not respond to the warnings of the Turkish fighter. When Putin hears the news of the downed airplane he gets so angry he punches the nearest object. This object was his computer. His computer had been malfunctioning, but by hitting it worked again. He noticed he had just received a new e-mail. Coincidentally this e-mail contained proof that Turkish officials had been smuggling IS-oil.
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| 12-02-2015 08:26 PM |
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Paracelsus
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-02-2015 05:04 PM)Emanuël Wrote: Fighter jets with integrated modern avionics and stealth technology are flying in the United States ever since 2001 ( F-22 Raptor ) whereas the supposed Russian answer Sukhoi PAK FA is still in its testing phase.
Asumming Russian goverment estimates are correct ( and be honest here, this is a big assumption) the PAK FA should enter production in early 2017.
Best case scenario for the Russian airforce: Russia is around 16 Years behind the United States. However I personally think this will probably turn out to be even longer.
P.S. A quick word on stealth. It is not a impopular idea on the internet that stealth doesn't work. (This opinion is not shared by either the Russian or Chinese government.) However stealth on a airplane can be compared with armor on a tank. Who would take someone serious who claims armored vehicles don't work, are a waste of money, and cited a tank getting destroyed as proof for his genius revelation? Yet the f117 nighthawk shot down in 1999, under worst case scenarios, seems to serve as 'undeniable proof' that stealth is a scam.
Stealth doesn't make you invisible, armor doesn't make you untouchable, but both can save your life.
I'd say it's less a matter of whether stealth works or not, and more a question of whether it's being used in the correct situations and whether the narrow range of circumstances in which it can be used justifies the (likely) enormous expense in keeping them or using them.
Take tanks as an analogy. I like John T Reed's analysis (you can probably guess where he's headed when he titles the article "Is the US Army's Armor branch a fraud") which you can read here: http://www.johntreed.net/armor.html
The salient part of the article to me is this:
Quote:When I was cadet at West Point, we were often given briefings about the “capabilities and limitations” of various items of military equipment. What are they for the Abrams tank?
Although it is a whiz bang, amazing machine that often stars in Military Channel and History Channel documentaries about its capabilities, like firing accurately while moving at high speed over moguls, a chain is only a strong as its weakest link.
Generally, tanks are designed to operate in desert or other large fields with little vegetation. Their main job is to kill other tanks which is done high-noon, cowboy style by shooting the enemy tank on sight before he shoots you. Tank cannons use extremely high velocity ammunition (and loud!) so they only have to point at the enemy tank and shoot. No need to calculate distance and arc the fire on a parabolic trajectory like artillery.
Tanks are vulnerable to enemy soldiers that can creep up close to them. Civilians have disabled many tanks since they were invented in World War I by throwing Molotov cocktails on them. A Molotov cocktail is simply a glass bottle of kerosene with a cloth wick in the opening. The wick is set on fire then thrown on the tank where it breaks and sends flaming liquid all over the vehicle including into any openings.
I was impressed with the Army’s constant discussion of capabilities and limitations. That is sort of a theme of my book Succeeding which is about surveying your strengths and weaknesses and running your life accordingly. The problem is the military is not keeping that in mind with regard to tanks. There seems to be a mindset that tanks and armored divisions have no need to justify their existence and therefore there is no need to consider what they can do or cannot do. In fact, they are like some odd tool that you would buy at Brookstone. When you need it, it’s great to have, but you rarely need it. Military planners and officers need to create a revised list of the capabilities and limitations of tanks then revise the Army’s tank unit deployments, share of budget, size of units, training, and use in combat accordingly. If they don’t get to it quickly, heads should roll.
The other thing is that a need for stealth means you have to compromise on a plane's other functionalities. You can't carry as much armament, it hasn't got anywhere near as much range because you have to lessen the amount of fuel the plane carries, and you can't armour the aircraft heavily either. The more you make a plane rely on not being seen to achieve its military objectives, the more vulnerable you have to make it in situations where it does get seen. An emphasis on stealth makes a plane a glass cannon: pretty damn good if it doesn't get seen, but cringingly vulnerable if it does.
I think the USAF realises full well how minimally useful stealth generally is -- as demonstrated by the fact F-117 and F-22s are no longer in production. The F-35 JSF does have stealth capabilities, but again these are limited and they're primarily designed to prevent air-to-air kills, not prevent detection of the plane from the ground. And again one wonders exactly how much of an advantage the F-35 actually is when the US isn't actually fighting anyone with an air force at the moment.
That said, the US is probably technically ahead of either Russia or China at the moment, but at the same time there's a massive cost to maintaining that technological advantage. Stealth technology delivered against an opponent with no air capability and with SAMs that probably can't hit drones or bombers deployed at high altitudes just seems expensive overkill to me, but then I tend to believe the ISIS problem should be getting dealt with by daisy cutters and bunker busters, not this strange pussyfooting around that the West seems determined to run with at the moment.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2015 08:38 PM by Paracelsus.)
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| 12-02-2015 08:33 PM |
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Wrec
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-02-2015 06:37 PM)Blunt Wrote: ![[Image: itRyznZ.jpg]](http://i.imgur.com/itRyznZ.jpg)
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| 12-03-2015 04:13 AM |
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
(12-01-2015 08:15 PM)Newyorker Wrote: The only difference between Putin and Erdogan is that Putin is blonde. Both are egoistic, self centered, and not willing to back down. However I see Putin is very much loved on this forum, Russia's military capabilities are grossly exagerated due to love for Putin by some members here. There is no way the East bloc can take on the West, heck Russia would have a hard time taking on Turkey alone even if NATO wasn't involved.
Legendary US Army Commander Says Russia Would "Annihilate" US In Head-To-Head Battle:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-07...ead-battle
(12-01-2015 08:15 PM)Newyorker Wrote: Their military budget is 1/10th of that of the USA, and only 2.5x higher than Turkey.
The Russians are getting what they paid for. The USA isn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQB4W8C0rZI
(12-01-2015 08:15 PM)Newyorker Wrote: Russia is in no way a superpower.
Russia is a mere regional power (if that) according to Obama, yet as the joke goes, "The last time we saw a Russian beat a black man so badly, Apollo Creed died."
(12-01-2015 08:15 PM)Newyorker Wrote: The only undisputed superpower in this world is the United States of America whether we like it or not.
Russia disputes it (largest country in the world), China disputes it (largest population in the world), yet the USA is the "undisputed superpower," just like the USA annually declares itself "World Champion" in sports where no other countries participate.
(12-01-2015 08:15 PM)Newyorker Wrote: Not to mention was all those sanctions worth for a tiny land in Crimea, Russian people are 2x poorer compared to last year because of Rubles devaluation.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/inv...vering.asp
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2015 05:21 AM by Byzantium.)
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| 12-03-2015 05:18 AM |
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Nineteen84
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
Turkey has proof of Russian involvement in Daesh oil, President Erdoğan says
Quote:President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday said Turkey had proof that Russia was involved in illegal oil trade with the terrorist organization Daesh in Syria, countering Russian allegations that Ankara was importing oil from the terrorists.
The Russian defense ministry on Wednesday accused Erdoğan and his family of involvement in the illegal oil trade with Daesh after Ankara's downing of one of Moscow's warplanes last month which plunged the two countries' relations into a crisis.
"In recent days a fashion led by Russia has emerged. Actually, Russia does not believe this either," said Erdoğan, referring to the alleged oil trade with Daesh.
"Look, Russia has to prove that the Turkish republic buys oil from Daesh, otherwise this is a slander," he said, while repeating that he would resign if Russia was able to prove their claim.
"Who buys oil from Daesh? Let me say it. George Haswani, holder of a Russian passport and a Syrian national, is one of the biggest merchants in this business," Erdoğan said.
In November, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Haswani, who was also placed on an European Union sanctions list, for serving as a middleman for oil purchases by the Syrian regime from the Daesh group.
Erdoğan said Thursday "a famous Russian chess player" was also involved in the oil business with Daesh, without giving a name. "He's also in this race," he said.
The new US sanctions also apply to Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, a wealthy Russian businessman and long-standing president of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) who was formerly president of the southern Russian region of Kalmykia.
The United States on Wednesday rejected Russia's claims of Turkey buying oil from Daesh, calling the allegations "preposterous," "ridiculous" and "untrue."
Josh Earnest, the assistant to the president and press secretary in the White House has also dismissed claims and blamed Assad for exploiting Daesh oil.
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| 12-03-2015 09:32 AM |
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Anabasis to Desta
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
Breaking ...
Putin: Turkey "will regret" downing Russian bomber in Syria.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34993629
Quote:In his speech Mr Putin again accused the Turkish government of sheltering and covertly supporting IS militants.
Turkey insists that its F-16 fighters shot down the Su-24 because the bomber had trespassed into its airspace.
In a state of the nation speech, broadcast live on Russian television, he said that "if anyone thinks Russia's reaction will be limited to trade sanctions, they are deeply mistaken".
"We'll remind them again what they did - they will regret it."
Mr Putin scorned them, saying "probably Allah alone knows why they did it.
"And evidently Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey, by depriving it of any reason or logic."
I don't believe a figure of such stature such as Putin gives a speech as direct and pointed as this in such a venue without a declaration of serious intent being behind these words.
I'm certain Russia has some trick up its sleeve and is going to go in dry on this Turkey.
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| 12-03-2015 10:58 AM |
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Emanuël
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RE: Russia Entering the Syrian Conflict
Excellent post Paracelsus, but I would like to expand on a few points.
-On stealth technology being compromising
(12-02-2015 08:33 PM)Paracelsus Wrote: The other thing is that a need for stealth means you have to compromise on a plane's other functionalities. You can't carry as much armament, it hasn't got anywhere near as much range because you have to lessen the amount of fuel the plane carries, and you can't armour the aircraft heavily either. The more you make a plane rely on not being seen to achieve its military objectives, the more vulnerable you have to make it in situations where it does get seen. An emphasis on stealth makes a plane a glass cannon: pretty damn good if it doesn't get seen, but cringingly vulnerable if it does.....
Stealth is indeed a compromising factor, but so is carrying lot's of armament, having large fuel tanks, armour,...Any fighter is made up from compromising factors.
Now, I am not here to declare stealth a Wunderwaffe. How the advantages weigh up to the disadvantages? Frankly I have no clue.
The US Airforce "realising" the limitations of stealth seems far fetched. As far as I know, High Command has never wavered in their commitment to the jsf?
-On your questioning the usefulness of the f-35:
Quote:And again one wonders exactly how much of an advantage the F-35 actually is when the US isn't actually fighting anyone with an air force at the moment... Stealth technology delivered against an opponent with no air capability...
This reasoning seems strange to me.
A conventional airforce also serves as a deterrence. Some missions are best executed on low altitude. And russia may sell/give/"accidentally" lose in the proximity of s-300/400 systems to types unfavorable to the US.
That being said, It seems impossible to find any valuable, objective source on the abilities of the f-35. We can only hope that Lockheed-Martins' version of the facts turns out correct.
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| 12-03-2015 11:36 AM |
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