Post: #19626

Trump is 2.5% from winner-take -all in Mississippi (47.5). 94% reporting though, so not sure if he's gonna get it.

edit; source=AP

Post: #19627

(03-08-2016 11:48 PM)Sweet Pea Wrote:  Guys, can someone more knowledgeable about past election cycles let me know which states typically trend purple? I added up the vote numbers for Michigan so far, and it turns out that Republicans showed up to vote 1,150,000 strong, 100,000 higher than the Democrats. I'd be curious to see those numbers in other swing states.

http://www.270towin.com/
This site has the electoral map from every election in history. It includes swing states, polls, etc. On the basic map, the ones left uncolored are the ones that recently have been more purple.

Post: #19628

Having lived in Idaho in many years, there seems to be two types of conservatives:

1.) Evangelicals (Mormons) and cuckservatives that buy into the whole "I'm holier than all the other candidates so vote for me" shtick that Cruz has going for him. We've seen the same phenomenon in Iowa and the like.

2.) Right-leaning libertarians that also happen to be political purists. In other words, they love Ron Paul and also hate Trump, even though Trump has points of view that align with them (auditing the fed comes to mind). Anyone who isn't a pronounced libertarian is a no-go.

I hoped that Trump would rile us up enough to pull a win in Idaho, but looks like the religious appeal of Cruz reigns supreme here. Still, second place isn't bad, and 32 delegates isn't super awesome.

Post: #19629

(03-08-2016 11:04 PM)Dusty Wrote:  Six month's apart:

If like she was possessed by a evil monster.

Post: #19630

Hillary gets Berned in Michigan, HAHAHAHA

Post: #19631

(03-08-2016 11:48 PM)Sweet Pea Wrote:  Guys, can someone more knowledgeable about past election cycles let me know which states typically trend purple? I added up the vote numbers for Michigan so far, and it turns out that Republicans showed up to vote 1,150,000 strong, 100,000 higher than the Democrats. I'd be curious to see those numbers in other swing states.

Trump is going to make the Rust Belt turn red, Hillary abandoned the blue collar support she got in 2008 by pandering to minorities and making the case that a vote for her is a vote for an Obama third term. This is evident with Bernie's strong showing with whites and working class folk.

Pennsylvania for example is going to be a huge battleground, either the Democrats are forced to spread their resources protecting the blue states or risk losing them by going for minority pandering double down in the south which will fail since even the super anti-Trump Christians (Carson and Cruz supporters) will never vote for Hillary

Trump is going to use the Sailer strategy to a win in November

Use 538's swing the election tool: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...-election/

If you only increased the R share of non-college whites and bump up turn out this shifts the election into a Republican win

While playing around I still get a Republican victory with:
Decreasing black voter turn out (They came out in droves for Obama), increased Dem support and turn out for Hispanics (media blablabla racism blablabla BECAUSE ITS CURRENT YEAR) and not even touching Asians and college educated whites

Post: #19632

Fucking Idaho. #NoMorePotatoes

Post: #19633

Man, it seriously just hit me.

Dude basically gets painted as a goddamn Klansman for weeks, has a deposition "debate" where they do everything short of siccing Perfect Cell on his ass, a headline comes out about him triggering, yeah, triggering scores of psychiatric patients into anxiety disorders...

And then he just runs the fuck off with Michigan and Mississippi right out of the gate.

This fucking guy.

Post: #19634

Interesting trends.

Any non-New England state which is over 80% white seems to go for Cruz or Rubio. So i expect Cruz to take Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Utah easily on top of Idaho today. Possibly Arizona too because of the significant Mormon population.

Trump will sweep the entire West coast from San Diego to Seattle , the rest of the Eastern seaboard, all the mid-western Rustbelt states (except maybe Indiana lots of evangelical cucks), New Mexico and whatever states are left in the south.

Florida depends on whether the gay man decides to drop out or not.

Either way he's got the nomination.

Post: #19635

Trump's Megyn Kelly shoutout (and her genuine reaction - she didn't know the camera was going to cut to her)





She wants The D(onald)

Post: #19636

Glad to be pleasantly surprised. I suppose the everlasting exposure to the lame stream media got to me. Celebrated with a Trump Steak tonight and don't call me low energy kaotic. That's for the cuckservatives. Not those who've helped The Donalds campaign.

Post: #19637

Remember Trump is Pro Energy and pro pipelines so that brings North and South Dakota hurting due to Obamas anti energy polices along with Ohio and Pennsylvania and the largest producers of coal in the world Wyoming and West Virginia.

West Coast no matter how liberal are disgusted with the Obama Clinton open borders Pro Drugs Dealers sanctuary cities policies so Trump wins Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania plus the Rust Belt and west toasted coasties and its time to plan an inauguration party... for Mr. Trump.

Post: #19638

(03-09-2016 12:09 AM)Anabasis to Desta Wrote:  Interesting trends.

Any non-New England state which is over 80% white seems to go for Cruz or Rubio. So i expect Cruz to take Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming and Utah easily on top of Idaho today. Possibly Arizona too because of the significant Mormon population.

Trump will sweep the entire West coast from San Diego to Seattle , the rest of the Eastern seaboard, all the mid-western Rustbelt states (except maybe Indiana lots of evangelical cucks), New Mexico and whatever states are left in the south.

Florida depends on whether the gay man decides to drop out or not.

Either way he's got the nomination.

Agreed. Except I think Arizona is a strong bet for Trump because of border issues. Indications are that he has strong support there and I think it could go similar to Nevada except maybe a bit smaller gap between him and Cruz. I also think Trump will win Florida in either scenario with or without the little marco.

Post: #19639

There was a contributor on CNN saying that the Republican establishment has already conceded Florida and Ohio to Trump, but want Rubio and Kasich to stay in the race regardless in order to hold out for a brokered convention.

These people are fucking panicking. They're grasping at straws at this point.

March 15 will determine the course of the nomination. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, it's done.

Mark your calendars.

Post: #19640

(03-08-2016 11:55 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  

(03-08-2016 11:48 PM)Sweet Pea Wrote:  Guys, can someone more knowledgeable about past election cycles let me know which states typically trend purple? I added up the vote numbers for Michigan so far, and it turns out that Republicans showed up to vote 1,150,000 strong, 100,000 higher than the Democrats. I'd be curious to see those numbers in other swing states.

Trump is going to make the Rust Belt turn red, Hillary abandoned the blue collar support she got in 2008 by pandering to minorities and making the case that a vote for her is a vote for an Obama third term. This is evident with Bernie's strong showing with whites and working class folk.

Pennsylvania for example is going to be a huge battleground, either the Democrats are forced to spread their resources protecting the blue states or risk losing them by going for minority pandering double down in the south which will fail since even the super anti-Trump Christians (Carson and Cruz supporters) will never vote for Hillary

Trump is going to use the Sailer strategy to a win in November

Use 538's swing the election tool: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...-election/

If you only increased the R share of non-college whites and bump up turn out this shifts the election into a Republican win

While playing around I still get a Republican victory with:
Decreasing black voter turn out (They came out in droves for Obama), increased Dem support and turn out for Hispanics (media blablabla racism blablabla BECAUSE ITS CURRENT YEAR) and not even touching Asians and college educated whites

To be fair, Sanders has also been pandering hard lately to blacks, and SJWs. He was approaching level 10 with the blabbel about the Criminal Injustice system, the 1%ers, etc. during his press conference tonight. He's seriously playing into these SJW narratives to give his campaign oxygen. After losing Michigan tonight, I can only foresee Hillary having to also dig further into both camps with the same leftist platitudes in order to finally dispatch him. She'll be positioned too far to the left for independents, and will further tarnish her credibility with the diehard Lefties when she zig zags back towards the center.

Post: #19641

(03-09-2016 12:09 AM)Anabasis to Desta Wrote:  Interesting trends.

Any non-New England state which is over 80% white seems to go for Cruz or Rubio.

You may be right in your assertion re: racial makeup but I think there's more of a trend on open vs. closed primary. Because Trump's getting so many independents, so many democrats ready to switch parties, and so many people who don't usually vote, a "closed" process (where only registered republicans can vote) don't help him as much.

So open vs. closed, and also caucus vs. primary, stupid fucking caucuses.

Trump's losses are all caucuses and closed primaries.
The only ones that break the trend are win in Nevada and Kentucky (caucus) and Louisiana (closed primary), and his only open primary losses are Puerto Rico (lol) and Texas (the Cruz home state). Exit polls show Trump's main strength is white men, and older white men to boot, which would imply he'll perform strongly in mainly-white areas (so long as independents and democrats can get in on the action and it's not a stupid caucus?)

I am a bit concerned about Ohio going to Kasich but if the press keeps hammering Rubio's pitiful performance & there isn't a strong debate showing Saturday, I'm feeling much better about Florida. Even if it is a closed primary...

When I model the rest of Trump's run I'll def take your theory into account, it could work.

Post: #19642

   

Post: #19643

Maybe I should hop on the Trump phone this week and pretend to be a Cruz supporter spreading the word Trump Is dropping out.

Post: #19644

Ugh, it blows my mind that Cruz continues to do well in certain states. These Evangelical cucks don't give a shit about anything other than religiosity, huh?!

Post: #19645

One of the FiveThirtyEight Boyzz Wrote:Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Marco Rubio, it has tonight. Buried in the drama is the fact that Rubio has yet to win a single delegate in tonight’s primaries. Not only did he fall woefully short of hitting Mississippi’s 15 percent delegate threshold and 6 percentage points shy of hitting Michigan’s 15 percent threshold, his current 18 percent in Idaho is just barely below the Gem State’s 20 percent threshold. Luckily for Rubio, Hawaii’s lack of a delegate threshold is likely to save him from a humiliating shutout. But Rubio’s mainland fortunes couldn’t have fallen any further.

Post: #19646

(03-09-2016 12:34 AM)Kickb Wrote:  Maybe I should hop on the Trump phone this week and pretend to be a Cruz supporter spreading the word Trump Is dropping out.

This has troubled me about the online phone-banking available for several candidates. How do you stop a rival candidate's supporter from calling for an opponent and essentially mucking things up?

That might read a bit confusing.

Example: Pretend I was a Cruz supporter. I sign up for Trump's phone bank volunteering gig, and then proceed to just be the nastiest POS to potential Trump supporters.

What's to stop that?

Post: #19647

I imagine they do spot checks to make sure the volunteer isn't going off the rails.

Post: #19648

(03-09-2016 12:40 AM)Penta Sahi Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 12:34 AM)Kickb Wrote:  Maybe I should hop on the Trump phone this week and pretend to be a Cruz supporter spreading the word Trump Is dropping out.

This has troubled me about the online phone-banking available for several candidates. How do you stop a rival candidate's supporter from calling for an opponent and essentially mucking things up?

That might read a bit confusing.

Example: Pretend I was a Cruz supporter. I sign up for Trump's phone bank volunteering gig, and then proceed to just be the nastiest POS to potential Trump supporters.

What's to stop that?

Are calls via the online phone-banking routed through another number or central location so, like a call centre, you call(s) can be monitored for message consistency and quality and you lose your privilege if you go off-script?

Of course, even if that was the case you can't monitor all the calls all the time, so yeah. That is something.

Maybe it's time to be a shitlord volunteer for Cruz and talk about his relationship to the Zodiac Killer...

Post: #19649

Anybody notice how Cruz voters are exactly the type of people you don't want to be around? Mostly lifeless boring Christ-tards, rule driven aspergery engineer type sheeps, fanatic gay haters, single issue pro-life freaks, holier-than-thou do-nothings, cave dwelling preppers... Honestly I enjoy the company of liberals alot more. These primaries are like a poll of where not to go. Not that I had any particular initiative to visit Iowa or Kansas...

So to all those Cruz supports out there, when march 15 hits

Post: #19650

The more I pay attention to this election, the more I'm convinced that this is a battle for the American soul.

With Sanders or Hillary, we keep going down the same failed path, becoming more like Western Europe. We can't pay for anything and we keep cowering in fear at any possibility that someone is offended. We insist that the government has to become bigger to help the people; the people can't do things for themselves. It's not "socialism," it's "social democracy," which is often a distinction without a difference.

With Trump, we turn away from that path, back towards free enterprise. Political correctness starts to die on the vine. Capitalism returns with a vengeance.

You can only push a society so far before a backlash occurs. This is that backlash. Not a bullshit "revolution," like Sanders wants to have, but a conservative revolution, like Nixon and the Silent Majority.

Save the American soul. Make America Great Again!