Post: #151

Things have shifted in the French elections. Macron is now leading because polls are now showing most likely to make it into the second round with le pen and then win in the finals.

Le pen's chances look dismal in the second round but I'm still skeptical of (((polling))) and (((media))) which typically gives out a narrative of bullshit and lies.

There's also the Trump factor to consider. le pen has visited Trump Tower and it's possible that Trump will do or say something to help le pen win the 2nd round. This is a real possibility that I can't overlook. I'm now considering betting on le pen at 5x and pulling out as her odds shift to a profitable outcome closer to the end of the second round.

Post: #152

Fillon is now at 9x because of scandal. A lot of betting people think he will be replaced by Alan Juppe who was the runner up. Fillon is still in the race though at 20%, tied with Macron. If he pulls out of scandal like President Trump did during the general election with the pussy scandal I can see a decent profit opportunity.

Post: #153

As of now, February 3, 2017, Trump being president by Dec. 31, 2017 is trading at 0.79 !!! This is crazy. I bought few hundred dollars for "yes." If I trusted the site more and could easily withdraw money, I'd put in thousands of dollars. Barring him unexpectedly dying, I can't see him leaving office by the end of the year.

Post: #154

^Thats insane, I wish I could open an account

Post: #155

Doesn't look like todays terrorist attack has moved the odds on bet 365. She's still at +250

Post: #156

Terrorism has affected Fillon. He was at 9.2x and now 5.5x and getting better each time I check. I can't think of any reason for this other than the Louvre incident.

Post: #157

Quote:As of now, February 3, 2017, Trump being president by Dec. 31, 2017 is trading at 0.79 !!! This is crazy. I bought few hundred dollars for "yes." If I trusted the site more and could easily withdraw money, I'd put in thousands of dollars. Barring him unexpectedly dying, I can't see him leaving office by the end of the year.

God bless CNN, aka certainly not news.

Post: #158

(02-03-2017 01:36 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  ^Thats insane, I wish I could open an account

While probably a little more volatile than Trump remaining president, why would he replace Sean Spicer?

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5237/...-2017#data

I'm very tempted to throw down some money on this.

Post: #159

^Sean Spicer at 55¢!

Post: #160

Never realized we calculated the RVF total earnings, allow me to add my small total of $700 CAD, won betting on Bet365, to the count. That equals approximately $520.31 USD given November exchange rates which brings the grand RVF total up to $587,125.09

Post: #161

$0.82 bet on yes bet for Trump being president on 1/1/19. Not outsized odds like when he was the underdog, but to me it's essentially free money. Congress has no time to worry about impeachment AND removal while they're dealing with their own midterm elections. And even though Trump's health isn't the greatest, I think the odds of him dying or being incapacitated is less than 1%.

Even after predictit's egregious fees it's roughly a 10% return after everything. $850 max bet, set it and forget it and celebrate with Sizzler in the new year.

Post: #162

I got Trump to survive til 1/1/20 at just under evens a few months ago. Thanks libtards that think #fakenews is real

Post: #163

(05-17-2018 11:15 AM)booshala Wrote:  $0.82 bet on yes bet for Trump being president on 1/1/19. Not outsized odds like when he was the underdog, but to me it's essentially free money. Congress has no time to worry about impeachment AND removal while they're dealing with their own midterm elections. And even though Trump's health isn't the greatest, I think the odds of him dying or being incapacitated is less than 1%.

Even after predictit's egregious fees it's roughly a 10% return after everything. $850 max bet, set it and forget it and celebrate with Sizzler in the new year.

It's actually better for 1/1/20 (or equivalent). Slammed some money down again. Relatively low risk in my opinion for a nice return (1/1/19 is enough return to bet, but the 1/1/20 is not too shabby).

Post: #164

Not sure if it's been mentioned already but anyone seen the video of Simpsons predicting future events?

Post: #165

Bump

Let's make some money before these reports destroy the dems forever.

Will Trump be impeached in his first term?


Sure doesn't seem like it at this point. No is trading at 57c a share.

Will Mueller be replaced by June 30?

I don't know but yes is trading at 8c. Seems likely actually. After these reports come out, I think Rosenstein will try to save his own skin and end the investigation. The report on Hillary's situation and the FBI's/DOJ's handling of her investigation will be so embarrassing for them I wonder if they'll keep this charade going any more. This report will drop by the end of May. This gives a whole month for these losers to figure out that this is not going in the direction they'd hoped.

Thoughts?

Will McCabe face charges by the end of the year?

Here's where I start not understanding how this works. I have no doubt about this, McCabe is probably already facing charges, but if he does a plea bargain for testimony does that confirm he was facing charges or because he's doing a plea bargain does that mean he didn't technically "face charges"?

If it's as simple as, "he got a plea bargain" so technically he did "face" charges here is your money" then I'm in but I'm not sure I understand this bet.

Thoughts?

edit - Is this free money? Will Trump be the nominee in 2020? lol

Let's post links and why we think we'll win. Let's makes some money with our collective analysis.

We're too good at this stuff to not capitalize during the MAGA years.

Post: #166

(05-19-2018 11:47 AM)Fisto Wrote:  Will McCabe face charges by the end of the year?

Here's where I start not understanding how this works. I have no doubt about this, McCabe is probably already facing charges, but if he does a plea bargain for testimony does that confirm he was facing charges or because he's doing a plea bargain does that mean he didn't technically "face charges"?

If it's as simple as, "he got a plea bargain" so technically he did "face" charges here is your money" then I'm in but I'm not sure I understand this bet.

Thoughts?

If you click the rules tab it's explained in what I think is sufficient detail to satisfy your concern:

Quote:On or before December 31, 2018 and subsequent to the launch of this market, former deputy director of the FBI Andrew McCabe shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime in the United States, as confirmed on or before December 31, 2018 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Post: #167

(05-17-2018 07:49 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  I got Trump to survive til 1/1/20 at just under evens a few months ago. Thanks libtards that think #fakenews is real

Nice odds on your bet... holding time from now to 1/1/20 is too long for me as I can put that money into the markets and make a nearly guaranteed rate of return on KHC or AT&T paying 4.5, 6% annually. But if you have money to park somewhere, that's a good bet too. I'll probably look to rollover my 2019 bet into 2020 if I can get 35%+ on my money.

This reminds me a lot of the Mayweather/Mcgregor bet, people letting their emotions get the best of them and clearer thinking folks coming in to take advantage of the situation.

Post: #168

(05-25-2018 02:51 PM)booshala Wrote:  Nice odds on your bet... holding time from now to 1/1/20 is too long for me as I can put that money into the markets and make a nearly guaranteed rate of return on KHC or AT&T paying 4.5, 6% annually. But if you have money to park somewhere, that's a good bet too. I'll probably look to rollover my 2019 bet into 2020 if I can get 35%+ on my money.

This reminds me a lot of the Mayweather/Mcgregor bet, people letting their emotions get the best of them and clearer thinking folks coming in to take advantage of the situation.

Someone correct me if I'm calculating this wrong:

Maxing out Trump through 1/1/2020 (same as through end of 2019) on PredictIt at the current rate of $.66 is as follows:

$850 (max exposure in any particular market) / $.66 (current price =1287 shares (rounding down to even shares) so you spend $849.42 for those shares.

So if Trump makes it through his first term:

1287 shares x .34 = $437.58 (gross profit before fees)

$437.58 x .9 (PredictIt takes 10% of profit) = $393.82 (gross profit after 10% fee)

$849.42 + $393.82 = $1243.24 (Total bankroll for withdrawal after 10% profit fee)

$1243.24 x .95 (PredictIt withdrawal fee) = $1181.08

$1181.08 - $849.42 (initial spend) = $331.66 (gross profit after fees but before tax)

$331.66 / $849.42 = .39 or otherwise stated as a 39% rate of return

Roughly it's 18 months between now and the end of his 1st term so let's figure out the annualized rate of return because that's what you care about (you'd get taxed on market gains when you withdraw from the market as well so I'm not making a calculation for that as if you pull money out of either you are creating a taxable event).

.39 / 18 = .02166666666 (monthly rate of return)

.021666666666 x 12 = .26 (annualized rate of return)

I don't know about you guys, but a 26% annual rate of return is pretty good.

Of course it's not as near guaranteed as other investment options, but I'm looking forward to Trump finishing his first year and my 26% annual rate of return (actually mine is slightly higher as I didn't buy in today).

Post: #169

Saw some posts about this site in the Politics thread and just jumped on with a small initial investment. Any juicy events to get in on now?