Post: #326

Damn oil and gas stocks taking a hit...

Also, that airliner being shot down over Ukraine didn't help YNDX. I wonder how much this tangential bad news will push it down.

Post: #327

Does anybody have any ideas on stocks(long or short) to play the isreali/palestinian conflict?

Here is an example of what i mean, e.g. (1) china/new zealand botulism problem. (2) winter de-icing salts scarcity stocks play. (3) obamacare rollout stocks play. (4) russian/ukrainian conflict financial market plays.

You get the picture. I like my stock picks to have a catalyst propelling them.

I am looking for something like that for the isreali/palestinian gaza conflict. The current gaza conflict in this case being the stock's catalyst. It doesnt have to be just stocks, are there solid isreali ETFs that i can short? Anybody familiar with EIS and ISRA? dont know much about them.

i am trying to comb through this list to see if there is an isreali defence stocks that i can buy(with emphasis on missile defence companies) or isreali airline stocks that i can short.

Even better, does anybody know isreali companies with strong business exposure to the gaza?(from energy to construction to telecommunication to retail, etc), that is, isreali stocks that does a lot of business in gaza or through gaza?

I should have started this stock operation on isreal since last week, when the conflict just started; but, better late than never....

regards,

Nemencine

Post: #328

I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Post: #329

@JayJuanJee - Thanks ever so much for the info. I have read your post several times. Very useful.


Can anyone recommend a UK ISA platform for buying UK and international shares? I want to max out my ISA allowance of £15k and invest in some of the recommendations being given here!

I have been looking at iWeb, TD Direct Investing and Selftrade.


Any thoughts greatly appreciated. I am a complete novice but having just read Rich Dad, Poor Dad as well as this thread I want to start l'urrrniiing!

Post: #330

(07-23-2014 03:15 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.

Post: #331

(07-23-2014 08:13 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(07-23-2014 03:15 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.

Thanks. I haven't done my DD yet, but it seems like it's been moving up a bit.

Post: #332

(07-23-2014 09:25 PM)tarquin Wrote:  

(07-23-2014 08:13 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(07-23-2014 03:15 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I have been thinking about a long EXEL play, and there has been a run up in anticipation of the release of this quarter's results. Their cancer drug has reached the Phase III study endpoint goal, but numbers haven't been released. I was under the original belief that they may be released on the 31st, but after reconsideration, I may be wrong. I anticipate you can still scrape a few points before the 31st in anticipation, however.

Long term, I think it happens to be a win. In the past, however, I've bounced from pharm stocks after approval. This has saved me profits (ex. DNDN and ARNA).

Their partner, Roche, will not be releasing the full data set until later this year - no date announced yet.

Roche is filing for regulatory approval this year. It takes the FDA 10 months to review the data for a new drug submission. If it's approved by the FDA, EXEL will co-promote cobimetinib in the USA and receive an equal share of profits or losses on the drug's sales.

I took a small position in EXEL in March after their stock price dropped 50%.

Thanks. I haven't done my DD yet, but it seems like it's been moving up a bit.

EXEL shares up 11% today on 3 times usual volume. News may be leaking or it could be a false rumor.

I found out Roche are planning to present the key data at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference in Madrid 26-30 September 2014.

Post: #333

Loving my LUV the past few days...Southwest that is. I also got in on AAL, wishing I woulda loaded up even more on Southwest though.

Post: #334

Just picked up positions in a few different stock

Equity-bonds
1) MCD- equity-bond (3.3% dividend). Franchisees make up the bulk of cash-flow. Food is basically an inflation-hedge. MCD also owns a large Real estate portfolio- much of which is held at cost on balance sheet. I expect a conservative return of around 6-9% yearly. Management has outlined a 20 Billion return to shareholders via dividend/buybacks for the next 3 years. V boring stock, but I think it'll do fine. Horsemeat scandal is going to be a blip.

2) GE- Equity-bond (3.4% dividend). Bluest of the blue chip. Spinning of its financial unit soon. Focused on industrials. CEO has publically stated his near-term goal is to raise dividends to pre-recession levels. This would mean about a 5% dividend (at current price). Very under-rated and forgotten stock.

3) XOM- Equity-bond (2.68% dividend). Just want some exposure to oil/natural gas. Done very well historically over long periods of time (100+ years). Still one of the best oil companies out there. Just riding the jockey here. Small-stake, but some variation of commodities/inflation hedge.

Financials
1) TROW- T. Rowe Price Group. Mutual funds are an interesting beast. I inspire this to louis lowenstein's "The Investor's Dilemna- How Mutual Funds are Betraying Your Trust."
25B market cap. Approximatly 5B in short-term assets/investments. 1.6 Billion in free cash-flow/year. This money is basically all coming from mutual fund expenses (1-2% of Assets under management AUM). With stock-market shooting up, I expect more money to flow into the stock-market (401k into mutual funds). 600B AUM means they make money off your money, and operational costs are largely fixed. Any additional AUM inflow will be increase in management profits. Its a legal cash-skim machine (1.5-2%/yearly).

Stock under heavy consideration
AFLAC- insurance. Heavy yen exposure, but growing same currency about 10% yearly. 10 P/E. 1.8 P/B.
BEN- Frank Templeton mutual funds/asset management. Same vein as TROW.

Post: #335

(07-30-2014 01:19 PM)DVY Wrote:  Just picked up positions in a few different stock

Equity-bonds
1) MCD- equity-bond (3.3% dividend). Franchisees make up the bulk of cash-flow. Food is basically an inflation-hedge. MCD also owns a large Real estate portfolio- much of which is held at cost on balance sheet. I expect a conservative return of around 6-9% yearly. Management has outlined a 20 Billion return to shareholders via dividend/buybacks for the next 3 years. V boring stock, but I think it'll do fine. Horsemeat scandal is going to be a blip.

How is food a hedge against inflation? Food inflation seems to be at around 10% the past several years, outpacing most other goods. Cattle, dairy & chocolate products have in particular been hit hard. The producers of these goods have been experiencing a windfall but all the service businesses that use the materials are getting pinched.

Post: #336

People need to eat cheaply. Prices will roughly increase on par with food prices for low-cost providers. Hence MCD is basically food-inflation protected.

Post: #337

(07-30-2014 01:19 PM)DVY Wrote:  Just picked up positions in a few different stock

2) GE- Equity-bond (3.4% dividend). Bluest of the blue chip. Spinning of its financial unit soon. Focused on industrials. CEO has publically stated his near-term goal is to raise dividends to pre-recession levels. This would mean about a 5% dividend (at current price). Very under-rated and forgotten stock.

+1 on GE. Just got a heads-up on this stock the other day.

Post: #338

Random Question.

GGB Gerdau SA brazilian steal company. largest in the america
currently been down for the years.

What do you think their future is...With the olympics coming up.. but brazil being full of odd corruption.
would you keep or sell?



Also.
Mens wearhouse and Michael Kors stock?
Keep or sell?

Post: #339

Hoping one of you more experienced guys can help me out on this one. It's probably pretty simple to answer so apologies in advance!

I've got a modest sum in an accumulation tracker fund in the UK. The dividend payment date was mid-July. It pays this dividend once a year.

I've had some paperwork through to say that I was due a small dividend payment on this date - but I've received nothing.

The fund I chose had an accumulation or income option (I chose the former).

I thought that any dividend payment would automatically buy me more shares of the fund I was in (as oppose to putting the dividend payment as cash into my bank account).

However - have I misunderstood how accumulation funds work? Does the dividend payment not buy you more shares automatically?

I've tried calling the bank a number of times but their lines are always 'busy'. Great support for investors. If anyone could clarify how these funds work it'd be really appreciated.

Post: #340

Do you mean the ex-date is mid july? Sounds like it hasnt actually been paid out.

Post: #341

(08-05-2014 02:03 PM)Richiavelli Wrote:  Do you mean the ex-date is mid july? Sounds like it hasnt actually been paid out.

Thanks for the reply mate.

The fund in question is the HSBC FTSE 250 tracker (accumulation).

Details from the link below show the ex-div and payment date as follows:

Ex-dividend date:
16 May 2015

Payment date:
15 July 20154

My understanding was that provided I owned the shares before the ex-div date (which I did) then I would be eligible for the payment.

HSBC sent me a message that my fund has earned a small amount, but I've seen no cash payment.

I was expecting this as I opted for accumulation rather than income - but my confusion is stemming from the fact that nothing in my account seems to have changed. No more shares have been bought - so what does the accumulation bit actually mean? Where does my dividend payment go?

I'll go for the income version of the fund next time ... seems far more simple.

Details of fund:

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts...cumulation

Cheers

SI

Post: #342

(08-04-2014 04:56 AM)Sourcecode Wrote:  Mens wearhouse and Michael Kors stock?
Keep or sell?

I own KORS. I would say keep or buy more.

They are killing it internationally. Last quarter European revenue grew 130%, Japanese revenue grew 90%. Their upcoming Menswear launch could be huge.

Post: #343

...

Post: #344

(07-30-2014 01:36 PM)DVY Wrote:  People need to eat cheaply. Prices will roughly increase on par with food prices for low-cost providers. Hence MCD is basically food-inflation protected.

I think McD is a proven dividend stock as well, but I personally have stopped buying there. The fish sandwich alone is about $4.00, and the simple egg mcmuffin which I get without bacon is almost $4.00 for a egg on a English muffin. Seems so overpriced but maybe I'm just old.

Post: #345

(08-10-2014 12:46 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

(07-30-2014 01:36 PM)DVY Wrote:  People need to eat cheaply. Prices will roughly increase on par with food prices for low-cost providers. Hence MCD is basically food-inflation protected.

I think McD is a proven dividend stock as well, but I personally have stopped buying there. The fish sandwich alone is about $4.00, and the simple egg mcmuffin which I get without bacon is almost $4.00 for a egg on a English muffin. Seems so overpriced but maybe I'm just old.

It depends on the country. Here it's also very expensive compared to the amount and it's the main reason I don't go there. But in the USA, they have these dollar menus and all. It's a part of their strategy - aim for the upper class in developing countries, lower class in developed ones.

Post: #346

^^^Yea, but its more popular than ever. I've been all around the world and the McDonalds never ceases to amaze me. They adapt locally and regionally so well. Thailand, Taiwan, Russia, Korea, Japan, Mexico. Its amazing. New menu items and different price-points. In Asia, its open 24 hrs (one of the few), and has free wifi. Tons of students will sit and study there, and occasionally get ice-cream or food. Drunk people come in at 3am, etc etc.

In Thailand, they had lunch specials- fried chicken w/rice. Early morning- gruel. In Korea, they had taro-vanilla mix ice-cream. In Japan, they had different burgers. In Israel, they had burgers named after all the big cities (chicago, miami, NY, LA). McD arches is probably the most well-known consumer brand of all time (coca-cola and pepsi are up there too!).

Beyond that, their economics are fabulous. They receive franchisee fees on gross sales (food costs mean basically zipto McD bottom line). Thats the upside. The downside protection is huge portfolio of mostly US real estate (land +building) that is held at cost- some of which for 30+ years. This doesn't do justice to its balance sheet. Thanks GAAP standards!

Post: #347

I bought some time ago some KMI around 35usd but I loaded some more at 38.75usd after the last consolidation (KMI will acquire all outstanding shares and units of KMR, KMP, and EPB into a single company).
The combined entity will be the third-largest energy company in the world, and they have a very aggressive dividend policy.
Right now they pay 1.72usd/share, we expect 2.00 next year and then a 10% increase each year until reaching 3.22usd in 2020. And when they promise they deliver:

Dividend Track Record


I will keep it long term and see how it goes.

Post: #348

VRNG collapsed today. =/. -70% in 1 day, after appeals overturned previous victory. Put a decent dent into my portfolio (I had roughly 10% of my portfolio in it), but oh well onwards and upwards.

Post: #349

(08-15-2014 04:09 PM)DVY Wrote:  VRNG collapsed today. =/. -70% in 1 day, after appeals overturned previous victory. Put a decent dent into my portfolio (I had roughly 10% of my portfolio in it), but oh well onwards and upwards.

Ouch! In these high risk/high return companies I find it is better if you invest small amounts ( eg. 1% each) of your portfolio into, say, 10 opportunities like this, ensuring that they were not particularly correlated you can do very well on average over time.

Post: #350

I took the plunge last week and loaded up on robotics and automation stocks. After months of watching the news on many companies getting into this (yahoo with drones, google with 2 & 4 legged robots & home devices, etc), I think this sector is going to see some serious growth in the near future. My hold time will be around 3-5 years.

Here's what I bought:

ROBO - this is an etf which is a basket of various robotics & automation stocks
IRBT - iRobot - looks like a blue label, well run company that can possibly introduce something disruptive or innovative as they've done before
IXYS - they make power controllers and other power chipsets that every robot, drone and wearable device uses
AVAV - AeroVironment - drone tech company
DRNE - Drone Aviation Corp - another drone tech company, though this one is a bit more risky & volatile. potential to make 100%. bought it at .81 and now its at 1.07

I'm looking at InvenSense (INVN) but haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. They make gyroscopes for motion tracking devices for all kinds of applications including smartphones, tablets and drones.